The effects of Wal-Mart on local labor markets

We estimate the effects of Wal-Mart stores on county-level retail employment and earnings, accounting for endogeneity of the location and timing of Wal-Mart openings that most likely biases the evidence against finding adverse effects of Wal-Mart stores. We address the endogeneity problem using a natural instrumental variables approach that arises from the geographic and time pattern of the opening of Wal-Mart stores, which slowly spread out from the first stores in Arkansas. The employment results indicate that a Wal-Mart store opening reduces county-level retail employment by about 150 workers, implying that each Wal-Mart worker replaces approximately 1.4 retail workers. This represents a 2.7 percent reduction in average retail employment. The payroll results indicate that Wal-Mart store openings lead to declines in county-level retail earnings of about $1.4 million, or 1.5 percent. Of course, these effects occurred against a backdrop of rising retail employment, and only imply lower retail employment growth than would have occurred absent the effects of Wal-Mart.     

Effects of employment protection on worker and job flows: Evidence from the 1990 Italian reform

This paper uses the Italian Social Security employer-employee panel to study the effects of the Italian reform of 1990 on worker and job flows. We exploit the fact that this reform increased unjust dismissal costs for businesses below 15 employees, while leaving dismissal costs unchanged for bigger businesses, to set up a natural experiment research design. We find that the increase in dismissal costs decreased accessions and separations for workers in small relative to large firms, especially in sectors with higher employment volatility, with a negligible impact on net employment. We also find some evidence suggesting that the reform reduced firms' entry rates and employment adjustments, but had no effect on exit rates.     

Earning or Learning? How Extending Closing Time in the Retail Sector Affects Youth Employment and Education

This paper estimates the causal impact of increased demand for low‐skilled workers on youth employment, and short and long run education. We exploit quasi‐experimental demand shifts for retail workers due to changes in allowed opening hours for retail stores across Norwegian municipalities. We find that relaxed restrictions on opening hours increased employment in the sector and permanently reduced educational attainment for affected high school students. The results suggest that policies or shocks that increase demand for low‐skilled workers in the short term might have negative long‐run effects in terms of reduced educational attainment.     

How do very open economies adjust to large immigration flows? Evidence from Spanish regions

We study the labor market effects of the large immigration wave in Spain between 2001 and 2006. In this period the foreign-born share increased from 6% to 13%, with a total inflow exceeding three million immigrants. Our analysis exploits the large variation in the size of immigration flows across Spain's regions. To identify causal effects, we take advantage of the fact that immigrants' location choices were strongly driven by early migrant settlements that arrived during the 1980s. We find that the relatively unskilled migration inflows did not affect the wages or employment rates of unskilled workers in the receiving regions. The growth of the unskilled labor force was absorbed mostly through increases in total employment. This increase did not originate in changes in the composition of regional output, but was instead driven by changes in skill intensity at the industry level. Regions that received a large inflow of unskilled immigrants increased the intensity of use of the now more abundant (unskilled) labor, relative to other regions. The key industries responsible for this absorption were retail, construction, hotels and restaurants and domestic services. These results are inconsistent with standard open economy models but are in line with recent empirical studies for the United States and Germany.     

西部民族地区对外贸易现状及对策

改革开放以来,西部民族地区的对外贸易取得了长足的发展,但是也存在着贸易总量小、高新技术产品进出口量不足、与东部地区的差距日益拉大等问题。本文从分析西部民族地区贸易总量、高新技术产品进出口及其各自的贸易竞争力指数入手,从实施自主创新政策、扩大对外开放力度、发展特色贸易等方面提出了发展西部民族地区对外贸易的若干对策建议。     

Do minimum wages raise employment? Evidence from the U.S. retail-trade sector

This paper examines the impact of minimum wages on earnings and employment in selected branches of the retail-trade sector, 1990–2005, using county-level data on employment and a panel regression framework that allows for county-specific trends in sectoral outcomes. We focus on specific subsectors within retail trade that are identified as particularly low-wage. We find little evidence of disemployment effects once we allow for geographic-specific trends. Indeed, in many sectors the evidence points to modest (but robust) positive employment effects.     

贸易结构与就业结构:基于中国工业部门的分析

随着我国经济发展和改革开放,贸易结构不断变动,对就业水平和就业结构都可能产生重要影响。本文系统研究了我国工业制成品贸易结构变动的就业效应:首先建立了一个简明的理论框架,探讨贸易结构变动对就业结构的影响;然后运用投入产出法和偏差分解法对我国1993～2007年工业制成品贸易结构变化的就业效应进行经验分析。结果表明,研究期间内偏向资本技术密集型产品的贸易结构变动不利于就业,并导致我国的就业结构偏向熟练劳动。     

Determinants of retail sales in SMSAs

This paper develops a theoretical model to explain consumer behavior in the context of spatially extensive retail markets. Several socio-economic variables influencing total and per capita retail sales are identified and their effects on sales are predicted. The theoretical framework presented in this paper serves to link location theoretic arguments to the retail trade arena and to provide a guideline for the empirical work reported. The empirical work encompasses nine retail trade sectors plus retailing in the aggregate. Good results are obtained for total sales and credible results for per capita sales using data from 229 United States SMSAs.     

Retail investors’ trading and stock market liquidity

The paper investigates the relation between retail investors’ participation in trading and aggregate stock market liquidity. The findings show a positive and significant relation between retail investors’ trading and stock market liquidity. Examination of the determinants of retail investors’ trading reveals that, on average, retail investors with more diversified trading activity tend to trade when liquidity is higher, the frequency of their arrival to the market is not affected by the level of liquidity, and retail investors are willing to trade at a lower liquidity level as sellers than as buyers. Moreover, retail investors’ trading does not create price noise at the aggregate market level. Overall, the evidence suggests that retail investors contribute to market quality.     

A Huff model with firm heterogeneity and selection. Application to the Italian retail sector

ABSTRACT

In this paper, firm heterogeneity (in terms of productivity, i.e., marginal costs) is incorporated into a Huff model of competition in the Italian retail sector. A higher market potential in the trade area is associated with higher average productivity and lower productivity dispersion through selection of the best stores. The analysis, based on a unique data set encompassing 14,212 Italian retailers, finds support for this relationship in Southern Italy, but not in Northern and Central Italy (where opposite results are obtained in some cases), suggesting the selection dynamics are affected by context factors (other than provincial/regional accessibility) related to an upper geographical scale. The results are robust to controlling for local context factors such as financial risk and floor size restrictions. Floor size restrictions are found to enhance selection.     

European Regional Development Fund and pro-environmental behaviour. The case of Italian separate waste collection

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) regulations over two programming periods (2000–2006 and 2007–2013) in terms of separate waste collection rates of Italian regions. We analyse longitudinal data for 20 NUTS-2 Italian regions over two EU policy cycles (2000–2006 and 2007–2013), by means of a Difference-in-differences estimation method. The estimates suggest that ERDF regulations in both programming periods had no relevant impact on the achievement of cohesion policy goals for separate collection at the regional level. Subsequently, we analyse data for 103 NUTS-3 Italian provinces over 2000–2013 by means of two statistical tools: The Theil index (TI), and the Moran index (MI), and find that proximity effects at provincial scale cause positive social contagion of pro-environmental attitudes toward separate collection. Our results make a case for the relevance of ‘cultural’ policy measures fostering environmentally responsible attitudes as a possible pre-condition for effective implementation of ERDF-funded separate collection projects in low-performing regions.     

Infrastructure and Performance of the Italian Economic System

This paper aims to analyze the consequences for the Italian economy of the recently started process of modernization and extension of the country's infrastructure. The planned measures are expected to increase the competitiveness of Italian businesses, and to improve the quality of life. In the short term, investments in infrastructure will increase the construction sector's production and, consequently, activate income and employment multipliers. The Italian economic system being highly differentiated from a territorial viewpoint, the impact of new investments on its economic system has been analyzed by means of a biregional model that accounts for the peculiar productive structure of the 20 Italian regions.     

Inclusion of disabled people in the Italian labour market: an efficiency analysis of law 68/1999 at regional level

Law 68 of March 12, 1999, whose aim is the regulation and promotion of the employment of persons with disabilities, delegates to the regions the management of the labour market. Consequently, its successful implementation depends almost exclusively on the regions’ actions and ability to efficiently coordinate the various actors involved in the work integration of disabled people. The main objective of this paper is to verify which Italian regions are ranked among the most efficient ones in the application of this law. To this purpose, the efficiency analysis is carried out by applying the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method to Italian regions data for the year 2005. In this context, we implement a “cascade” analysis by introducing both environmental variables and social capital variables in different steps of the analysis. The results show that the sheer presence of potential employers and of employment offices is not enough to make a region able to correctly apply the law 68/1999. Both environmental and socio-welfare factors have to be considered, as they are important in determining the efficiency of each region in providing employment for disabled people. Hence, the present study represents an additional source of useful information to policy makers for future economic policy actions in order to promote the integration of disabled people in the labour market: environmental and social capital variables ought to be included as policy instruments within the context of law 68/1999.     

On the effect of obesity on employment in the presence of observed and unobserved confounding

The aim of this paper was to estimate the effect of obesity on the employment probability for Italian men and women accounting for both observed and unobserved confounding. We use microdata collected by the Italian National Statistical Office for the year 2009 during a multi‐scope survey of Italian households. The employment–obesity relationship is estimated after controlling for observed confounding by using probit regression and a propensity score weighting approach. To control for both observed and unobserved confounding (endogeneity), a semiparametric recursive bivariate probit model is employed instead. Our findings suggest that obesity has a significant negative effect on the employment probability and that endogeneity might not be an important issue.     

Measuring and forecasting retail trade in real time using card transactional data

We build big data retail trade indicators for Spain using high-dimensional card transaction data from one of the country’s biggest banks. The resulting indicators replicate the dynamics of the Spanish retail trade indices (RTI), regional RTIs (Spain’s autonomous regions), and RTI by retailer type (distribution classes) released by the Spanish National Statistics Institute. The new indicators not only have a higher frequency (daily data) and higher geographical and sectorial breakdown but are also shown to improve nowcasting and forecasting power for the official RTI, making them key variables to monitor consumption.     

INTEREG: A Twenty-region Input–Output Model for Italy

Since the regional scale turns out to be the scale at which fiscal devolution is likely to be accomplished in Italy, and that at which trade and growth interdependencies as well as regional convergence can be most conveniently investigated, a new 20-region input–output model for Italy seems to be a useful tool of analysis. Although various regional and interregional models have been constructed since the 1950s, none has been implemented for the whole system of 20 Italian administrative regions considered in their tight mutual dependence; also, the pool approach has not been greatly favoured, even in situations where direct information on regional trade is lacking. The main purpose of this paper is to report on the structure of the model, the rather complex procedure used in the model construction and the adopted solution technique. Some space is devoted to the problems encountered in handling regional trade endogenously in an input–output setting and to a comparison between the pool approach, used in the Italian model, and other current techniques. The paper also reports on some preliminary results regarding the regional impact of fiscal policy.     

An event time study of the price reaction to large retail trades

This paper analyzes large retail trades using an event study approach. A major finding in studies of this nature is an immediate reversal on the trade subsequent to the large transaction, for both large purchases and large sales. This reversal is inconsistent with the overwhelming majority of previous findings which show a stock price continuation following purchases to the close of trading. We confirm the reversals first using transaction prices, and then show that continuations follow both large purchases and sales when quote data is used. These large trades do not lead to a fundamental change in stock price volatility. We conclude that the transaction price reversal is driven by natural bid-ask bounce around large purchases and large sales.     

外贸顺差会降低就业水平?——基于匹配模型的实证分析

通过借鉴Pissarides匹配模型的思想,构建包含净出口额与就业等因素在内的模型框架,在此基础上利用2004~2008年中国行业面板数据,实证分析外贸顺差对就业的影响机制与程度。结果表明:已经拥有庞大贸易顺差的基础上,顺差的进一步增加不能提高就业水平,反而会造成就业人数的下降。本文研究表明,应该通过制定相应的进口支持政策,保障出口与进口的协调发展,减少顺差来优化国内经济发展结构,促进国内经济发展质量提升和就业水平提高。     

我国零售业态多元化分析

零售商业的发展呈现多业态混合的现象:百货业进入成熟期,但仍具有相当的生命力;连锁超市进入成长期,并且发展迅速;其它新型零售业态发展较快,竞争力不可小视。本文首先提出零售业态的定义,然后对出现多业态现象的原因从理论性和实践性两方面论述,最后对我国零售业态的趋势做一分析,并提出相应的解决措施。