Are business cycles asymmetric? Some European evidence

Economic thought has often regarded business cycles as asymmetric. This study examines the existence of asymmetries over the business cycle in seven European countries: France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands and the United Kingdom. To analyse this issue, industrial production in these countries from 1957 to 1998 is examined, and quarterly contractions and expansions in this variable are compared. The results obtained with both parametric and non-parametric methods allow the existence of asymmetries in these countries to be questioned.     

Business regulation and business investment: evidence from US manufacturing 1970–2009

Regulation is often portrayed as placing a substantial burden on US businesses and the overall US economy. Moreover, policy options of “cutting red tape” and “reducing federal bureaucracy” are often asserted to be a way to stimulate investment and, through this channel, a way to promote economic growth. This paper examines the relationship between growth in regulatory restrictions in the Code of Federal Regulations and manufacturing investment in the United States over the 1970–2009 period. An industry-level dataset is constructed by mapping the novel industry-specific RegData dataset from the Mercatus Center at George Mason University to the comprehensive industry-specific manufacturing data in the NBER-CES Manufacturing Industry Database. In total, the constructed dataset includes 337 manufacturing industries. This approach yields substantial evidence that increased business regulation is associated with decreased business investment.     

The impact of science and technology parks on firms’ product innovation: empirical evidence from Spain

Science and Technology Parks (STP) have attracted considerable attention and public funds in recent years. However, the conclusions on their effectiveness remain mixed. This work evaluates the impact of STP on firm product innovation in the Spanish context, as an example of a less developed innovation system in which regional and national governments are prioritizing STP initiatives. This work draws on a large sample of firms provided by the Spanish Survey on Technological Innovation that is conducted annually by the National Statistical Institute. We explore alternative econometric methods to obtain average treatment effects for firms located in 22 Spanish STPs. Our results show that Spanish STPs have a strong and positive impact on the probability and amount of product innovation achieved by STP located firms. These results hold when the endogeneity of STP location is taken into account.     

Are business cycles stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend? Empirical evidence from 79 developing countries

There is a large literature that tests the univariate time series properties of the real output series following the seminal work of Nelson and Plosser (1982). Whether or not real output is characterized by a unit root process has important implications. A unit root in real output, for instance, is inconsistent with the notion that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend. In this paper, we investigate the univariate time series properties of real output for 79 developing countries using the conventional augmented Dickey and Fuller (1979) unit root test, the Zivot and Andrews’ (1992) one structural break unit root test, and the Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) two structural breaks unit root test. Our main finding is that, for 40 countries, real output is stationary around a trend. This indicates that business cycles are stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend for only 51% of the developing countries in our sample.     

US money supply and global business cycles: 1979–2009

This article investigates the effects of the US money supply shock on global business cycles by employing a global vector autoregressive model containing 26 economies over the period from 1979Q2 to 2009Q4. The US money supply is incorporated as an endogenous variable for the US and a global factor for other economies. When a positive US money supply shock hits the global economy, developed economies (such as the US, Euro area and the UK) will have neither real output decline nor inflation pressure, while China and some other developing countries are going to have a significant decline of real GDP. The international spillover of the liquidity effect exists. The global effects of quantitative easing are discussed as well.     

Does grade retention affect students’ achievement? Some evidence from Spain

Grade retention practices are at the forefront of the educational debate. In this article, we measure the effect of grade retention on Spanish students’ achievement by using data from Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). We find that grade retention has a negative impact on educational outcomes, but we confirm the importance of endogenous selection which makes observed differences between repeaters and nonrepeaters appear about 14% lower than they actually are. The effect on scores of repeating is much smaller (–10% of nonrepeaters’ average) than the counterfactual reduction that nonrepeaters would suffer had they been retained as repeaters (–24% of their average). Furthermore, those who repeated a grade during primary education suffered more than those who repeated a grade in secondary school, although the effect of repeating at both times is, as expected, larger.     

Human capital and firms’ innovation: evidence from emerging economies

ABSTRACT

We explore the relationship between human capital and firms’ innovation in emerging economies. Most papers consider the formal knowledge developed in R&D laboratories as a major source of innovation. However, a critical portion of knowledge required for innovation resides in human resources and is created outside any formalised R&D activity. We consider that, to improve their technological capabilities, firms should invest in different forms of human capital, namely highly educated workforce and experienced managers, but also in strategic human resource (HR) practices aimed at developing human capital by increasing employees’ firm-specific technical skills and competences. Besides looking at the type of innovation outcomes, we place greater emphasis on the strategies of innovation development, as these should signal an improved firms’ ability, not just to innovate, but to put their own creative effort in the development of innovation. Our results contrast with the traditional view of firms in emerging economies as mainly relying on the external acquisition of innovations, by showing their actual ability to develop new technologies. In this respect, HR practices aimed at fostering employees’ learning and autonomy at work appear more important than the educational attainment of workers, whilst the experience of managers does not seem effective.     

Natural disasters and university enrolment: evidence from L’Aquila earthquake

Although there are several studies looking at the effect of natural disasters on economic growth, less attention has been dedicated to their impact on educational outcomes, especially in more developed countries. We use the synthetic control method to examine how the L’Aquila earthquake affected subsequent enrolment at the local university. This issue has wide economic implications as the University of L’Aquila made a large contribution to the local economy before the earthquake. Our results indicate that the earthquake had no statistically significant effect on first-year enrolment at the University of L’Aquila in the three academic years after the disaster. This natural disaster, however, caused a compositional change in the first-year student population, with a substantial increase in the number of students aged 21 or above. This is likely to have been driven by post-disaster measures adopted in order to mitigate the expected negative effects on enrolment triggered by the earthquake.     

Shareholders’ agreements and voting power: evidence from Italian listed firms

This work provides an empirical investigation of shareholders’ agreements signed in Italy over the past decade. The evidence shows that agreements produce a remarkable reshuffling of voting power (Shapley value) among participants. In particular, the first owner gains much voting power at low levels of ownership concentration, and his gain is decreasing in his ownership stake; the opposite happens for the other participants. In addition, the likelihood that a supermajority rule is included in an agreement contract is increasing in the first owner's share of equity. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that agreements are used to correct situations where the first owner's power is at one of the two extremes: either too low (leading to insufficient monitoring over managers and gridlocks in decision-making) or too high (enabling him to extract large private benefits of control).     

Involuntary excess reserve and bankers’ remuneration: evidence from Chinese banks

This article analyses the effects of involuntary excess reserves (IER) on bankers’ remuneration and the penalty associated with bank risk-taking if discovered. The study finds that IER help conceal tail risks, improves bankers’ performance and remuneration. However, the risks once discovered result in heavy penalties on bankers’ remuneration. The study extends the agency theory to the context where banks hold large IER.     

How do housing cycles influence listed firms’ R&D investment: evidence from the collateral channel

ABSTRACT

Firm innovation is essential to long-run economic growth. Financially constrained R&D firms may use firm-owned properties as collateral to finance their R&D projects. Therefore, the housing price cycle can affect firms’ R&D investment through influencing their real estate value. By examining listed R&D firms during the housing boom period 2002–2006 in the U.S., we find that a $1 increase in real estate value leads a firm to increase its R&D investment by $0.38. We also find that this collateral effect is more pronounced among financially constrained R&D firms than that among unconstrained ones. Additionally, we examine the housing bust period 2008–2012, and find that real estate depreciation retarded R&D investment, especially among constrained R&D firms.     

Financial crisis and hotels’ labour productivity growth: evidence from Spanish islands

The article examines hotels’ labour productivity growth over the period of financial crisis. We decompose hotels’ labour productivity into three components: technological change, technological catch-up (efficiency improvement/convergence) and capital deepening. Specifically, we apply our analysis over a sample of 820 Spanish hotels from Balearic and Canary Islands distinguishing three different stages during the crisis period. The results suggest that average terms hotels’ labour productivity was resistant to the financial crisis.     

The inter‐relationship between capital structure and dividend policy: empirical evidence from Jordanian data

The study investigates the under‐researched relationship between capital structure and dividend policy in emerging markets with regard to the Jordanian market. The empirical analysis focuses on the estimation of both single equation models and structure equation models using the reduced form equations to examine the joint determinants of capital structure and dividend policy. The study investigates whether capital structure and dividend policy theories can explain the financial decisions in emerging market such as the Jordanian market. Namely, the study examines agency theory, signalling theory, pecking order theory and bankruptcy theory. The results indicate that there is a positive relationship between debt‐to‐asset ratio on the one hand, and asset tangibility, profitability, market‐to‐book, liquidity, firm size, and industry classification on the other hand. Also, there is a negative relationship between debt‐to‐asset ratio and profitability. In addition, there is a positive relationship between dividend payout ratio on the one hand, and profitability, asset tangibility, market‐to‐book and industry classification on the other hand. Finally, the results of the reduced form equations show that capital structure and dividend policy have the following common factors: profitability; asset tangibility; market‐to‐book; industry classification; and limited evidence of institutional ownership. Therefore, the determinants of capital structure and dividend policy in emerging markets such as the Jordanian market share the same set of suggested factors with the developed markets.     

Son preference,children’s gender and parents’ time allocation: evidence from China

This article investigates the effect of children’s gender on parents’ time allocation in developing countries due to the long-existing tradition of son preference. A collective model generates predictions concerning the impact of the birth of sons on family behaviour when son preference is treated as a premium in the father’s utility function. Using data from China, I show that, with more sons instead of daughters, the time spent by both men and women on housework rises, while men have to increase their work time in the labour market and women can reduce theirs. The results are consistent with theoretical predictions and are robust for use in further tests. For the possible endogeneity of children’s gender, I use the law forbidding the use of ultrasound-B to reveal the gender of a foetus as instrumental variables as the identification strategy.     

American business cycles 1889–1913: An accounting approach

This paper quantitatively investigates the Depression of the 1890s and the 1907 recession in the United States. Business Cycle Accounting decomposes economic fluctuations into their contributing factors. The results suggest that both the 1890s and the 1907 recessions were primarily caused by factors that affect the efficiency wedge, i.e. slumps in the economy’s factor productivity. Distortions to the labor wedge played a less important role. Models with financial market frictions that translate into the efficiency wedge are the most promising candidates for explaining the recessionary episodes.     

Determinants and impacts of subcontracting: evidence from India’s unorganized manufacturing sector

There are two divergent perspectives on the impact of subcontracting on firms in the informal sector. According to the benign view, formal sector firms prefer linkages with relatively modern firms in the informal sector, and subcontracting enables capital accumulation and technological improvement in the latter. According to the exploitation view, formal sector firms extract surplus from stagnant, asset-poor informal sector firms that use cheap family labour in home-based production. However, direct, firm-level evidence on the determinants and impact of subcontracting is thus far lacking in the literature. We apply a modified Heckman selection model to Indian National Sample Survey data on informal manufacturing enterprises (2005–2006). We find that home-based, relatively asset-poor, and female-owned firms are more likely to be in a subcontracting relationship. Further, we perform selectivity-corrected Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition and calculate treatment effects to show that subcontracting benefits smaller firms, firms in industrially backward states and rural firms; it is harmful for larger firms, firms in industrially advanced states, and urban firms. Our results suggest that the effects of subcontracting are more complex than those predicted by the divergent perspectives. Policy-makers need to engage with this complexity.     

Accruals quality,managers’ incentives and stock market reaction: evidence from Europe

We investigate if accruals quality is a valuable indicator of earnings quality for stock market investors. Our particular focus is on the incremental informative value of taking into account managers’ incentives for using accruals. We propose a market-based approach for assessing the usefulness of this indicator to improve investors’ decisions. Specifically, we examine the association between accruals quality and information asymmetry among stock market participants. Our empirical study uses data on European firms and our results are consistent with a positive association between poor earnings quality and high information asymmetry. However, given some previous studies suggesting that accruals-based measures may be noisy indicators of earnings quality, we develop a method to increase the informational content of the accruals quality measure. Based on our results, we find that combining accruals quality with the dispersion in analysts’ forecasts provides a better indicator of earnings quality rather than only accruals quality.     

‘Earnings shocks and tax-motivated income-shifting: evidence from European multinationals’ – revisited

This article revisits the study by Dhammika Dharmapala and Nadine Riedel on income shifting between European multinationals published in the Journal of Public Economics in 2013. It used a promising alternative causal identification strategy for profit-shifting based on earnings shocks, which has over a short time period been frequently cited in the literature. Using data from the same database, albeit for a period 10 years later, for 2006–2015, the significant causal evidence for profit-shifting from European parent firms to their lower taxed European subsidiaries cannot be reproduced. Neither can similar results be obtained by considering profit-shifting to subsidiaries located anywhere in the world. Results in line with those of the original study can however be found when using effective rather than statutory corporate tax rates. While these findings raise concerns about the external validity of earlier studies’ result, it should not put the existence and extent of profit-shifting into question. It rather raises concerns about the focus on statutory tax rates in measuring profit-shifting. Moreover, rather than a decrease in profit-shifting, it may illustrate the database’s and the methodology’s limitations and ability to capture all shifts and channels.     

Peer heterogeneity,school tracking and students’ performances: evidence from PISA 2006

This paper analyses the interaction between school-tracking policies and peer effects in OECD countries. Using the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2006 data set, we show that linear peer effects are slightly concave-shaped in both early-tracking and comprehensive educational systems, but generally stronger in the early-tracking one. Second, and more interestingly, the effect of peer heterogeneity goes in opposite directions in the two systems. In both student- and school-level estimates, peer heterogeneity reduces students’ achievements in the comprehensive system while it has a positive impact in the early-tracking one. This reversal effect is robust to different definitions of early-tracking system, to the inclusion of pseudo-school fixed effects and to the exclusion of outlier countries. Finally, peer effects are stronger for low-ability students in both groups of countries.