Brexit und die Zukunft Europas – eine spieltheoretische Einordnung

After the Brexit referendum’s leave outcome last summer, the new relationship between the UK and the EU has to be shaped institutionally. For the two bargaining parties the question now is which negotiation strategy to take. In order to choose the optimal strategy, the players have to factor in their time preferences. A game theoretical approach yields that the EU — no matter what is economically feasible in the short run — has to play a tough negotiation strategy if they care about the long run. This result is not a question of punishment but of pure economic rationale.     

Die Kosten der Flüchtlingskrise in Deutschland – eine Investition in die Zukunft?

The high costs of the refugee crisis are often a subject of public discussion. However, one should distinguish between the fiscal and the overall economic effects of this current wave of immigration. A financial economic model shows that the “fiscal break-even” point can be reached by the year 2031. This is the first point at which the taxes and contributions of employed refugees exceed the costs to the public sector resulting from the refugees who are not in the labour market. The “economic break-even” point can be reached as early as 2025 if the gross value added contributions of the employed refugees by that time exceed the costs of caring for and integrating the refugees who are not in employment. This will require a “smart” integration of the refugees into the labour market, requiring high investment in the qualification of individuals and a flexible use of labour policy tools.     

Droht eine Immobilienpreisblase in Deutschland?

Since 2009, real estate prices in Germany have been rising rapidly after a period of stagnation during the Great Recession. This raises the question of whether the recent price increases are fundamentally driven or rather an indication of a real estate bubble in Germany. To tackle this question, we take a look at several real estate demand-side indicators. As real estate bubbles sometimes form in certain sub-segments of the real estate market only, the authors also conduct a disaggregate analysis by looking at different real estate types in Germany’s most important metropolitan areas. In what follows, we investigate the relation of real estate prices and rents and test for explosive behaviour of the price-generating processes. Our findings suggest that the recent upswing in the German real estate market seems to be based on fundamental factors. Except for the sub-segment of flats in some of the metropolitan areas, there is no evidence for price increases being unsustainable.     

Plädoyer zur gesetzlichen Regelung des Streikrechts – eine Replik

In the recent past, Germany has experienced increasing strike activity by small trade unions. This became possible through a change in high-level legislation allowing competition between trade unions at the firm level. The German government has responded by implementing a new law, which restricts this competition, but many observers regard it as inappropriate. In a recent issue of this journal, the Scientific Advisory Board to the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure proposes specific legal measures to be taken. The present paper comments on these proposals. It supports the claim for legal regulation of strike activities, but it deviates with regard to the scope of application. The point is made that striking is an activity that inherently requires legal regulation, and that legal regulation is only dispensable in sectors governed by strong competition.     

Die Globalisierung — eine umkehrbare Geschichte?

A global labour division with a corresponding exchange in trade has always existed, ultimately for reasons of pragmatism; the volume and structure of this labour division did particularly depend on technical and economic conditions. Today, low haulage makes the division of labour exceedingly intense, supported by the unprecedented reduction of trade barriers in the Post-War period. The latter phenomenon had always been controversial, as impacts of global trade on welfare were, and still are, unequally distributed. The winners seek to secure their advantages, while the losers try to defend themselves against competitors. There are two lessons to be learned from historic experience: On the one hand, that a limitation of global labour division is altogether unfavourable; first, that the costs resulting from an occasional limitation are only acceptable under the premise that the time gained is used for structural reforms that allow the return to the global division of labour. A permanent exit from global economy, however, has (thus far) never turned out to be successful.     

Brauchen wir eine Reform des Mehrwertsteuersystems?

Zeitgespr?ch

Brauchen wir eine Reform des Mehrwertsteuersystems?     

Was bringt eine geänderte Ertragskompetenz bei der Einkommensteuer? — eine Replik

The Reply

The reform proposal would complicate the rules for sharing income tax revenues. The measures proposed are not compatible with the rules set out in the German Federal Constitution and the relevant decisions of the Constitutional Court. The states would lose tax revenues, whereas the federal government would gain them. As to individual states, the financially strong ones would be the losers, despite the fact that economic strength and financial strength should be significantly related.

The Response

Future fiscal equalisation in Germany requires not only a new equalisation formula but also a fairer, more equal, broader and more transparent tax base for states and local governments. If necessary, changes to the Federal Constitution should be undertaken to achieve a more equal vertical assignment of tax powers. The actual reform discussion should not be a confrontation between rich and poor states but should lead to a financial constitution by 2020 which can be unanimously approved by all of the German states.     

Groβe Summe – groβes Problem? Warum die Debatte um die Target-Salden so hitzig ist

The rise of the Bundesbank’s target balance to about one billion euro has revived the debate among German economists about the interpretation and the risks associated with these balances for the German taxpayer and Germany as a whole. This paper explains why this debate is so heated by revealing that the opponents have sharply different views a) about the riskiness of assets purchased by the ECB when acting as a lender of last resort and by engaging in quantitative easing and b) about the risks for the German taxpayer and the economy if the ECB had not engaged in these activities.     

Wie geht es mit dem Brexit weiter?

The UK’s 2016 EU referendum may account for great income losses in the UK. Gabriel Felbermayr et al. use a “new” quantitative trade model to assess various Brexit scenarios. The results broadly show that all EU member states lose, and the relative losses in the UK are about five times those of the average remaining EU country. These findings have important implications for the EU’s negotiation strategy. The outcome depends largely on the decisions about trade relations. Michael Hüther thinks that the UK is heading for an extremely hard Brexit and that it already shows. Therefore, the UK government should work out a consistent industrial policy and make up its mind about its preferences on its future economic relationship with its neighbours. In light of the currently very close and mutually welfare-enhancing business relations between the EU27 and the UK, one of the central tasks and challenges of the Brexit negotiations is undoubtedly the creation of a new supportive post-supranational legal framework governing these economic transactions in the future. Andreas Grimmel argues that the EU’s crises are largely the result of a certain mode of integration that is based on actors’ interests rather than on a comprehensive constitutional framework.     

Football – marketplace icon?

Football has always been an important part of consumer culture, in many countries producing a global audience for World Cups and millions of people celebrating annual football competitions. It was once described by iconic Liverpool Football Club (FC) football manager Bill Shankly as follows, “Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I don’t like that attitude. I can assure them it is much more serious than that.” This marketplace icon contribution puzzles over whether football truly represents a marketplace icon and if so how does this effect the world’s most popular sports game? The commentary explores the significance of the beautiful game asking the reader to consider that it is not only a marketplace icon but much more than that, likened here to a “supra socio-cultural phenomenon” which rises above market logic or as Foer argues Football explains the world.     

Ist die Finanzkrise eine Krise der Marktwirtschaft?

Zusammenfassung  Nach der Erschütterung der Weltfi nanzm?rkte wird die Liberalisierung von M?rkten auch grunds?tzlich kritisiert. Sind die Fehlentwicklungen auf den Finanzm?rkten der marktwirtschaftlichen Wirtschaftsordnung anzulasten? Wie stellt sich die aktuelle Finanzkrise in historischer Perspektive dar? Prof. Dr. Ulrich van Suntum, 54, ist gesch?ftsführender Direktor des Centrums für angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung der Universit?t Münster (CAWM). Cordelius Ilgmann, 28, M.A., ist wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am CAWM.     

Brauchen wir eine europäische Rating-Agentur?

L?sungsvorschlag Die Rating-Agenturen stehen weiterhin in der ?ffentlichen Kritik, weil ihnen vorgeworfen wird, die Finanzkrise durch falsche Bewertungen mitverursacht zu haben. Aktuell stehen verschiedene Reformvorschl?ge im Raum. Die Autoren schlagen einen Europ?ischen Rating-Fonds vor.     

Grundsteuerreform in Deutschland: eine unendliche Geschichte?

For many years property tax in its current form has been exhibiting increasing problems. There are three reform models currently being discussed that differ in their respective tax bases using either property values or areas, or both. They create different individual tax burdens and amounts of tax revenue in each state compared to the current property tax amount which alters local tax capacity within the fiscal equalisation system among the 16 states. The calculations on regional local tax revenue prove that the value-based models which promote greater equity are being neglected by the financially strong states. This is because they would be forced to provide higher transfer payments to the financially weaker states.