INDEPENDENT FISCAL AGENCIES

Abstract.  There has been a considerable literature regarding the incentives of policymakers as a prime reason for persistent fiscal deficits and a variety of fiscal rules have been proposed as a remedy. However, the often inadequate flexibility of rules and the success of policy delegation in the monetary realm have motivated a small but growing number of studies that suggest delegating some aspects of fiscal policy to what will here be called 'independent fiscal agencies'. This paper surveys the related literature with a focus on three aspects: the motivation for the establishment of such agencies; their potential design; and the experience with these types of institutions.     

Do independent fiscal institutions cause better fiscal outcomes in the European Union?

This paper explores the budgetary implications of the independent fiscal institutions (IFIs) in the European Union (EU). We employ a dynamic panel model for the period 2000–2019 and find that these fiscal watchdogs have a positive and significant influence not only on government budget balance for the EU member states, resulting in smaller government budget deficits, but also on countries’ compliance with fiscal rules, results that hold across alternative fiscal balances. IFIs appear to have a beneficial impact on fiscal performance and compliance with numerical targets in countries with poorly designed fiscal responsibility norms but weaker influence when fiscal rules are less binding (well-designed fiscal rules). The findings remain significant regardless the year of accession to the EU (old vs. new members) or euro-area status (euro-area vs. non-euro-area members). However, we document that IFIs play a larger role in countries that established these monitoring bodies before 2013, indicating that experience matters in IFI performance. Also, our findings show that the influence of IFIs remains if we take into account institutional reforms in which their mandates were extended with different powers and tasks, which has a positive and significant effect on fiscal balances. Moreover, we find that, under the circumstance of systemic and banking crises, these institutions are associated with improved fiscal outcomes, reflecting their increased concern about the path of public finances and their role in reducing budgetary forecasting biases. Our results are robust to a variety of specifications and models, including alternative measures of the government budget balance and after controlling for a set of institutional characteristics and for potential endogeneity in the estimations.     

我国财政可持续性的实证研究——基于1952～2006年数据的时间序列分析

改革开放以来,我国经济得到了快速的发展;与此同时,财政赤字也成为一种经常现象,并导致累积债务迅速增长,从而引起人们对我国财政可持续性的担忧。本文从实证的角度利用协整检验的方法对我国的财政收支进行了研究。研究结果显示,我国的财政在1%的显著性水平是可持续的。这一结果表明:我国的财政不仅是可持续的,而且可持续的显著性水平较高。     

对我国潜在产出、结构预算与财政态势的关联性研究

本文基于新凯恩斯型动态模型的状态空间模型对潜在产出进行估计,并利用估计结果计算出政府财政预算中的结构性成分和周期性成分。通过对周期性预算余额和结构性预算余额的分析发现,我国财政自动稳定器功能较弱,财政收入和支出的周期性波动相对较小;周期性预算余额的变化与经济周期波动相吻合;我国1998年以来的财政态势具有明显的反周期特点,其对于拉动经济增长、减少经济波动起到了重要作用。     

欧盟绿色纺织品生态标签体系探析

欧盟生态纺织品标准的迅速提高,趋向越来越严格,特别是新版Oeko-Tex Standard 100和修订后的Eco-label标签,使我国现有的纺织服装生态标准与其规定的标准差距正在不断地拉大。文章对欧盟纺织品生态标签体系进行深入地研究分析,阐述国内外纺织品生态标签体系的现状和发展趋势,解读欧盟生态标签体系给我国纺织行业带来的影响和冲击,提出操作性强的对策和建议。     

Do carbon traders behave as a herd?

This paper shows the existence of herding behavior in the European Carbon Futures Market and studies its possible causes and consequences. This market is characterized by leading the carbon price discovery process and by being highly dominated by professional traders. Both features make it an appropriate environment for the existence of herding. A patterns analysis indicates that the herding level increases in speculative periods, on those days on which the price and size clustering effect is stronger, and with the arrival of carbon-related news. Regarding possible market drivers, we find that herding behavior is positively related with the number of trades, the intraday volatility and on days with extreme returns. Our results appear to support the claim that the lower the availability of information, the higher the level of herding. Finally, we show that herding increases market volatility and leads carbon traders to overreact.     

欧盟为什么推迟认可IFRS9?

深入阐释了欧盟推迟认可IFRS9的原因,即公允价值应用扩大、分阶段评估困难和欧盟委员会换届。展望了欧盟对IFRS9的后续策略,对欧盟2015年开始执行IFRS9持乐观态度。了解欧盟对IFRS的认可机制和处理会计标准国际协作问题的做法对我国会计准则国际趋同及与欧盟进行会计准则等效谈判有借鉴意义。     

Greece in the European Union: policy lessons from two decades of membership

This paper examines the first two decades of Greece’s experience as a member of the European Union (EU). In evaluating the Greek experience within the EU, we derive three fundamental policy lessons that apply both to similar small peripheral countries now entering the EU and to the EU itself in terms of facilitating their integration in a large economic area. First, small peripheral countries that enter the EU must address the structural deficiencies of their economies before entry in order to minimize the impact of increased competition after the removal of trade protection, and follow domestic policies that maintain and promote their comparative advantage within the EU. Second, the Convergence Criteria have proven to be a successful mechanism for countries with a poor historical policy record to achieve macroeconomic stability, as shown by the case of Greece. Third, common EU policies can be very helpful in facilitating structural reforms in small peripheral economies. However, these policies must be continuously evaluated and improved so that their effectiveness is maximized.     

我国鞋类出口企业应对欧盟征收反倾销税对策

鞋类出口是我国传统出口优势之一,巩固和扩大鞋类出口,对我国外贸发展具有重要影响。自2006年以来,欧盟对我国出口的皮鞋征收高额反倾销税,2009年11月又延长了征收反倾销税的期限,对我国皮鞋向欧盟的出口造成严重影响。本文分析了欧盟征收反倾销税的原因,并提出了通过法律手段积极应诉、建立自己的销售渠道和品牌、实施市场多元化战略、改变低价竞销策略等相应的对策。     

Promoting a free market by ending the Single Market – reforming EU financial regulation

The development of the Single Market in the EU – and the extension of its principles to the EEA – has led to dangerous trends in bank regulation as there is a ‘disconnect’ between regulation and deposit insurance systems. Although these problems do not exist in insurance markets to any great extent, Single Market regulation gives rise to other problems in that sector. In particular, it is restricting free trade both within and between countries. We propose a radical new model that would promote free trade without centralisation.     

Measures of the Amending Power of Government and Parliament. The Case of Italy 1988–2002

On the basis of a unique data set consisting of all the amendments to the Italian financial laws from 1988 to 2002, we empirically test whether and how the amending power is an instrument of the parliament or of the government and whether the use of this power was modified by the change of the electoral system in 1994. We show that, in both electoral systems, governments controlled the agenda and parliaments never exploited this power to increase the deficits beyond the planned value. The structural break of the Italian budgetary policy was determined by the Maastricht fiscal rules.     

论欧盟《反倾销条例》中附条件单独税率的违法性

长期以来,欧盟对来自非市场经济国家的供应商实行有条件的"单独税率",不仅不合理地加重了企业的应诉负担,也歧视性地将企业置于"一国一税"的高风险之下。本文经过分析认为,这种其规定不仅不符合WTO《反倾销协定》的相关规定,也是对最惠国待遇这一基石制度的违反。2011年专家组对紧固件案和鞋类产品案的裁决,终于使这一制度在WTO体系下的违法性得到了确认。这不仅是我国对欧盟相关规定的胜诉,更是对这一普遍存在的歧视性制度的胜诉。