The Vietnamese Economy in the 1990s

In the 1980s Vietnam made the transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy. The critical question now facing Vietnam is whether the remarkable growth rates it has achieved in recent years are sustainable over the long term. Does Vietnam have a viable strategy for long-term growth, and if not, where can it find one, and what does it have to do to implement it? These are the principal questions addressed in this review of recent literature on economic developments in Vietnam.     

越南国内经济增长对中、越双边贸易发展的贡献度分析

1986年越南实施了"革新开放"的新政策,并确立了以"社会主义定向的市场经济"作为其改革目标,20多年来,越南国内经济实现并保持了快速增长。1991年中越两国关系实现正常化,双边贸易合作取得了令人瞩目的成就,为维系和发展两国全面战略合作伙伴关系奠定了坚实的物质基础。实证研究进一步表明:越南国内经济增长是拉动中越双边贸易快速发展的重要"引擎"。     

Modeling the Dollarization: A Case Study for Cambodia,Laos, and Vietnam

Abstract

We model the dollarization of three transitional economies in south-east Asia: Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam which have been experiencing the transition and reform process of the economy for the time period 1992–2007. Based on Rojas-Suarez (IMF Working Paper WP/92/33, 1992) work, we examine whether the holdings of US dollars depend on the effect of the expected rate of depreciation in market exchange rates as expected by the model. Also, we examine whether the effects are proportional to the degree of the dollarization of the economy. The empirical results present that there are positive effects (expected) of the expected rate of depreciation in market exchange rates on the holdings of US dollars. The coefficients are statistically significant only for Cambodia and Laos, not for Vietnam. The effect is strongest for Cambodia, and this may reflect the fact that Cambodia's dollarization is stronger than those of Laos and Vietnam.     

Inflation dynamics and monetary policy transmission in Vietnam and emerging Asia

This paper provides an overview of inflation developments in Vietnam in the years following the doi moi reforms, and uses empirical analysis to answer two key questions: (i) what are the key drivers of inflation in Vietnam, and what role does monetary policy play? and (ii) why has inflation in Vietnam been persistently higher than in most other emerging market economies in the region? It focuses on understanding the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Vietnam, and in understanding the extent to which monetary policy can explain why inflation in Vietnam has been higher than in other Asian emerging markets over the past decade.     

CAFTA下广西与越南经贸合作的路径选择

2010年CAFTA如期建成运作。文章通过广西与越南经贸合作的特点和现状进行分析,探讨广西与越南经贸合作存在的问题,提出有助于促进广西与越南进行经贸合作更有利途径。     

当代资本主义市场经济的制度困境与中国破解方案

市场经济是当今世界各国的主流经济理念,当代资本主义市场经济在实践过程中存在市场内外部失灵的双重制度困境,难以实现持续性效率.外部失灵是西方经济学界普遍承认的由于外部条件难以满足有效市场要求而带来的市场失灵,内部失灵则是由于市场经济本身存在的主体不平等、市场边界泛化和经济虚拟化倾向等问题所带来的市场失灵.社会主义市场经济...     

中越旅游政策变迁对双边旅游经济影响的实证研究

自中越两国实行改革开放、恢复友好关系以来,两国旅游政策互动经历了三个阶段,在双方政策特别是越南政策的积极作用下,双边旅游经济受到深刻影响,特别是越南受政策的影响表现较为突出。文章尝试运用制度经济学的思想,以双方旅游相关制度的变迁为主线,实证中越旅游政策的相互作用对双边旅游经济发展的影响,并揭示政策变迁过程中中越旅游经济发展的规律性。     

分化与整合:市场机制的社会功能

如果不是人为的限制,由自然经济到市场经济,是一个自然而渐进的发展过程;市场经济的健康发展和市场机制作用的有效发挥,需要有文化价值观念和政治权力的支持与配合;市场机制对社会分工和技术进步具有相互促进的重要作用。市场机制的综合社会功能主要表现为,对政治民主化和社会法制化、社会理性化和组织化、社会结构的调整、社会分工的深化和细化、以及社区城市化进程等的全面促进。     

卓炯市场导向改革思路与实践检验的再认识再评价

1979年春卓炯率先提出市场导向的改革思路,主张把产品经济体制改革成市场经济体制,经济体制改革是一个系统工程,包括把计划价格改革成市场价格,资源配置机制的行政机制改革为市场机制,重塑微观经济基础。这是卓炯对改革作出的重大理论贡献。实践证明,卓炯提出的市场导向的改革思路是完全正确的,但是也存在着一些难点。这些难点包括适应市场经济的公有制的实现形式、私营个体经济在市场经济中的地位、个人在市场经济中的主体地位,需要根据改革实践进行充实和丰富。     

从非价格制度谈对市场经济内涵的再认识

随着市场经济的发展，环境污染、外部负效应、社会道德水平下降和贫富分化严重等市场失灵造成的社会不良现象相继出现，暴露出了一个问题，即市场经济价格机制并不是万能的。非价格制度的作用以及市场经济的进入时机与条件，都是市场经济模式运用中更广泛的内容。文章从市场经济的一般理论与特征入手，针对其内在的缺陷，引入非价格制度的概念与作用，指出非价格制度其实应作为市场经济本身的一部分来认识，从而对市场经济理论进行深入探讨。     

当代西方国家市场经济的成功经验及其对我国的启示

伴随着“理论——实践”的交替循环,西方国家的市场经济从基本成形到现在已经走过了两个多世纪的发展历程。其中,从理论和实战上都积累了天量宝贵的精神财富。微观经济主体理性化行为理论、市场机制理论、宏观经济均衡运作理论构成了市场经济的三大理论基石。保持与市场经济相适应的微观经济基础,充分发挥市场机制与政府宏观调控“多只手”的积极作用．建立与完善相关的政治、文化、社会保障体系是现代西方国家市场经济的主要成功经验。我国社会主义市场经济体制的建立与完善既要立足国情,又要合理地借鉴西方国家市场经济的基本理论成果和成功经验。     

越南投资环境及我国企业对越投资策略

越南是我国的重要邻邦。近年来越南政治和社会稳定,经济持续快速发展,外资政策比较宽松,投资环境不断改善,市场潜力和发展空间较大,是我国企业"走出去"的重要目标市场。本文分析了越南投资环境及存在问题,对我国企业对越投资策略进行了探讨。     

The impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam: the transmission through domestic oil price

This study examines the impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam with a focus on the transmission channel of domestic oil prices. The Structural Vector Autoregression model with two blocks of real economy variables and monetary variables is employed. The world oil price follows an autoregressive process to reflect the exogenous nature of world oil price shocks to the domestic economy. The retail domestic oil price is determined simultaneously by only the world oil price due to the government's control of the domestic oil market. Using monthly data in the period between 2009 and 2021, the study indicates that a positive shock to world oil prices will increase the domestic oil prices significantly, industrial production (slightly and only statistically significant in the third month after), and inflation (significantly in 8 months). Besides, the domestic oil price is not the only transmission channel of world oil price shocks to the economy. This result implies forecasting, assessing, and controlling the impact of the world oil price shock on the economy should focus on both domestic oil prices and other indirect channels.     

基于平均利润率的中国市场化改革绩效分析

本文通过分析市场经济的特点,明确了市场经济的价格调节机制在起作用的过程中必然使各行业的利润率逐步趋于平均利润率的规律,并利用这个规律创建了各行业利润率与平均利润率之离差和指标,最后,利用这个指标来分析中国市场化改革的绩效。     

Vietnam: an economic survey

This paper reviews the two decades of economic development in Vietnam since Doi Moi, with the recurrent theme that integration with the world economy brings substantial benefits when accompanied by domestic reforms—when transition catches up with integration. In the 1990s, liberalisation of the agricultural sector—and of trade generally—led to rapid economic growth and reductions in poverty. Since 2001, addressing the extreme bias against the private sector has resulted in growth via development of labour‐intensive industries as well as enabling Vietnam to climb onto the first rung of the ladder in the global supply chains of electronics and related manufacturing. However, deeper international integration has made the economy more vulnerable to external shocks. Although Vietnam achieved two decades of rapid growth as well as survived the global financial crisis in better shape than most other economies of similar size in the region, prospects of sustaining another decade of rapid growth are far from assured. Vietnam still has very large state‐owned enterprises in capital‐intensive industries. The recent extension of these large enterprises into real estate and finance contributed to de‐stabilise the macro‐economy, and administrative measures were adopted to pare back some of these ‘non‐core’ activities. However, administrative measures are hard to sustain once a crisis is over. The Vietnamese government has the goal of transforming Vietnam into an industrialised society over the coming decade. The recent macroeconomic turbulence has demonstrated that the country needs strong macroeconomic institutions capable of stabilising the economy and setting the parameters for resumption of rapid growth. Thus there is a strong case for the development of modern public institutions as the focus of the third phase of reforms.     

Fostering and regulation of public domain

Advanced and well-regulated public domain is the basis for the operation of modem market economy and the development of social economy. Since the reform and opening up of China, the private domain dominated by the market mechanism has been developing rapidly, and the under-development of the public domain has begun to appear. Under-development and non-standard nature of public domain has begun to restrict the improvement of market economic system and comprehensive and healthy development of social economy. Therefore, we shall vigorously foster and regulate public domain while continuing expanding and deepening private sector dominated by market mechanism.     

从马列主义经典理论的视阈看当前社会主义市场经济的升级和发展

1978年,党的十一届三中全会拉开了社会主义市场经济发展的序幕。2013年党的十八届三中全会作出全面深化改革的重要部署,站在新的历史起点上,需要系统总结30年来我国社会主义市场经济体制机制不断发展完善并取得巨大成就的根本原因。文章从马列主义经典理论的视阈首先阐述了其与社会主义市场经济的渊源关系,通过经典理论视角解读了当前社会主义主义市场经济的成就和现状,分析了存在的问题和不足,就进一步升级和发展社会主义市场经济提出了对策建议。     

社会主义市场经济应是和谐经济

市场经济和谐运行是社会主义和谐社会的基本特征,是社会主义本质的内在要求,是市场经济自身发展的客观需要。发展市场经济能为社会主义和谐社会提供物质基础,是构建社会主义和谐社会的根本途径;要构建社会主义市场经济的和谐机制,坚持以人为本是根本出发点,完善社会保障体系是重点,加强法制建设是关键,转变政府职能是保证。     

广东发展低碳经济的思考

低碳经济是广东产业转型的目标。但是广东在发展低碳经济面前遭遇到种种困境,主要表现在缺乏核心技术,低碳产业受制于人;国内市场分割,广东产能闲置;民企为低碳主力,资金瓶颈阻碍研发。广东要根据自己的省情和发展阶段,兼顾国家长远和现实利益,有计划、有步骤地实施低碳经济发展战略。首先要举全省之力,以计划和市场混合机制,促进低碳相关的技术创新;其次是要建立有利于低碳经济发展的市场环境;第三是要实施民企融资与国企同一标准。     

Investment climate and foreign investment in Vietnam

Features of development of investment processes during the reform period in Vietnam are discussed. The focus of attention is on measures of dynamics, industry and regional structure, foreign investment, and the investment relations of Vietnam, mainly with Southeast Asian countries, and its comparison with these countries by degree of investment attractiveness. The author only deals with foreign direct investment because foreign portfolio investment is almost nonexistent because of the underdevelopment of the stock market in Vietnam. Factors determining the investment climate in Vietnam are described and recommendations for its improvement are given.