The role of neighborhood characteristics in mortgage default risk: Evidence from New York City

Using a rich database of non-prime mortgages from New York City, we find that census tract level neighborhood characteristics are important predictors of default behavior, even after controlling for an extensive set of controls for loan and borrower characteristics. First, default rates increase with the rate of foreclosure notices and the number of lender-owned properties (REOs) in the tract. Second, default rates on home purchase mortgages are higher in census tracts with larger shares of black residents, regardless of the borrower’s own race. We explore possible explanations for this second finding and conclude that it likely reflects differential treatment of black neighborhoods by the mortgage industry in ways that are unobserved in our data.     

Deconstructing distressed-property spillovers: The effects of vacant,tax-delinquent,and foreclosed properties in housing submarkets

In this empirical analysis, we estimate the impacts of property-tax delinquency, vacancy, and foreclosures on the value of neighboring homes. We demonstrate that these externalities differ in high- and low-poverty submarkets. Numerous studies have estimated the externality of foreclosures. These papers theorize that the foreclosure impact works partially through creating vacant and neglected homes. To our knowledge, this is only the second attempt to estimate the impact of vacancy itself and the first to use tax-delinquency as a measure of property neglect. We link vacancy observations from Postal Service data with property-tax delinquency and sales data from Cuyahoga County, Ohio. We find that an additional property within 500 ft that is vacant or delinquent reduces a home’s selling price by 1 to 2%. In low-poverty submarkets, the negative impact of a home that is both vacant and delinquent is ?4.6%. Low-poverty submarkets penalize a sale near a tax-current recent foreclosure by 4 to 8%. In high-poverty submarkets, we observe positive correlations of sale prices with vacant foreclosures. This may reflect lenders selectively foreclosing only on relatively well-maintained properties.     

Spillover effects of subprime mortgage originations: The effects of single-family mortgage credit expansion on the multifamily rental market

The dramatic expansion in subprime mortgage credit fueled a remarkable boom and bust in the US housing market and created a global financial crisis. Even though considerable research examines the housing and mortgage markets during the previous decade, how the expansion in mortgage credit affected the rental market remains unclear; and yet, over 30 percent of all U.S. households reside in the rental market. Our study fills this gap by showing how the multifamily rental market was adversely affected by the development of subprime lending in the single-family market before the advent of the 2007/2008 subprime induced financial crisis. We provide evidence for a fundamentals based linkage by which the effect of an innovation in one market (i.e, the growth in subprime mortgage originations) is propagated through to another market. Using a large database of residential rental lease payment records, our results confirm that the expansion in subprime lending corresponds with an overall decline in the quality of rental payments. Finally, we present evidence showing that the financial performance of multifamily rental properties reflected the increase in rental lease defaults.     

The impacts of education spending and finance reform on manufacturing property shadow values: a cost function approach

The effects of court-ordered education finance reform on property values and residential choice have received increasing attention in recent years (Fischel 2001). However, little attention has been focused on the effects of education finance reform on manufacturing sector property values within an optimizing framework. This is pursued here by modeling education expenditures and education finance reform as “free” variables to manufacturing firms in a cost function model together with input demand equations. This framework is applied to panel data on manufacturers’ capital (building and structures) stocks for the 48 continental US for 1982–1996 to estimate implicit (shadow) values to the manufacturing sector of education spending and school finance reform. On average, school finance reform lowers the implicit value of manufacturing firms’ stock of buildings and structures capital, while greater education spending lowers manufacturing variable costs.

Productivity and efficiency in the US: effects of business cycles and public capital

We add to the literature on the US productivity slowdown and effects of public capital on productivity by employing Malmquist productivity indexes to measure productivity. These indexes allow us to decompose productivity growth into efficiency change and technological innovation. We derive these components for each observation, which we exploit to explore factors which may lead to differences in productivity across regions, including business cycles, both own-state and cross-border public infrastructure investment, and relative sizes of the manufacturing, service and public sector. Our results suggest that the components of total factor productivity change lend important insights into the fairly complex effects of public capital on productivity growth.     

住房反向抵押贷款与传统抵押贷款的对比分析

住房反向抵押贷款本质是以房屋融通资金,并以此为核心拉动养老、保险、房地产等多项社会活动.将反向抵押贷款和传统的抵押贷款对比分析可以更好的理解两种模式的特点和运作.用同一性分析和差异性分析对两种抵押贷款在基本属性和运作上的进行探讨.而组合性分析则是对两种抵押贷款在计算和操作上的分析.     

Fear of crime and housing prices: Household reactions to sex offender registries

Megan's Law requires public dissemination of information from sex offender registries. Opponents to this controversial law have questioned whether households misinterpret or even use this information. One concern was that the information might simply induce a “fear of crime.” This study finds evidence for both use and misinterpretation of the publicly available information on sex offenders. Using a unique dataset that tracks sex offenders in Hillsborough County, Florida, the results indicate that after a sex offender moves into a neighborhood, nearby housing prices fall by 2.3% ($3500 on average). However, once a sex offender moves out of a neighborhood, housing prices appear to immediately rebound. Surprisingly, these price impacts do not appear to differ in areas near high risk offenders labeled as “predators.”     

Impact of importing foreign talent on performance levels of local co-workers

When skilled labour is imported to work in a creative industry, local workers may benefit, in terms of their own level of skill, through contact with new techniques and practices. European basketball offers an opportunity to investigate the reality of this general claim. For a panel of 47 European countries observed over more than twenty years, we model probability of qualification for, and subsequent performance in, Olympic Tournaments and World and European Championships. We demonstrate that, consistent with the spillover hypothesis, an increase in the number of foreigners in a domestic league tends to generate a subsequent improvement in the performance of the national team (which has to be comprised only of local players).     

Neighborhood effects,college education,and social mobility

This study models the impact of environmental factors on upward social mobility, where the educational environment is measured by the proportion of college-educated individuals, and social mobility is measured by a change in proportion of people in different income classes. The dynamics of the educational environment is modeled using a modified version of the invasion/extinction ecological model of Richard Levins. The educational environment influences the educational choices of poor people, becoming effective only after a threshold point is reached. The rate of growth in influence is modeled using a monotonically increasing saturation function, which includes a delay parameter referred to as handling time, that measures the speed of influence. Our simulations indicate that poor people choose to become educated at a rate that primarily depends on the density of the local environment.     

基础设施投资的空间溢出效应分析——以沪昆线沿线城市为例

以沪昆铁路沿线区域及城市经济发展为分析对象,实证分析了我国基础设施投资的空间溢出效应。认为沪昆线的基础设施投资既产生了提高沿线区域及城市的运输能力、扩大沿线贸易量、调整沿线产业结构、促进沿线经济增长的空间正溢出效应,也产生了加剧沿线地区及城市要素的非均衡流动、非均衡经济增长的空间负溢出效应。     

FDI技术外溢的地区差异与吸收能力的门限特征——基于中国省际面板数据的门限回归分析

本文利用中国省际面板数据模型对FDI流入在不同地区所引发的技术外溢效应进行了检验。检验结果验证了FDI技术外溢效应在我国不同地区之间具有相当的差异性。在此基础上,本文采用"门限回归"方法构造非线性面板数据模型,进一步检验了影响FDI技术外溢效应的若干吸收能力因素以及FDI技术外溢影响的门限特征,并从经济发展水平、对外开放度、基础设施和人力资本状况以及地区经济结构等方面测定了引发积极技术外溢效应的门限水平。     

Neighborhood upgrading effects of middle-income housing projects in New York City

In a sample of 50 New York City neighborhoods in which middle-income housing projects were built, assessed values increased by 9.89% per year while control areas increased only 4.64% annually. This upgrading effect is more pronounced in medium-quality neighborhoods than in either the best or the worst neighborhoods. Project size has apparently no effect on the impact of neighborhood upgrading, but project age seems to be positively related to neighborhood upgrading.     

Old homes, externalities, and poor neighborhoods. A model of urban decline and renewal

This paper investigates urban decline and renewal in the United States using three panels that follow neighborhoods on a geographically consistent basis over extended periods of time. Findings indicate that change in neighborhood economic status is common, averaging roughly 13 percent per decade; roughly two-thirds of neighborhoods studied in 1950 were of quite different economic status fifty years later. Panel unit root tests for 35 MSAs indicate that neighborhood economic status is a stationary process, consistent with long-running cycles of decline and renewal. In Philadelphia County, a complete cycle appears to last up to 100 years. Aging housing stocks and redevelopment contribute to these patterns, as do local externalities associated with social interactions. Lower-income neighborhoods appear to be especially sensitive to the presence of individuals that provide social capital. Many of the factors that drive change at the local level have large and policy relevant effects.     

Neighborhood revitalization's effects on tenants and the benefit-cost analysis of government neighborhood programs

This paper analyzes the potential effects of neighborhood improvements on low-income tenants. The theoretical model shows that tenants with strong psychological ties to their current neighborhood may suffer significant losses due to rent increases caused by neighborhood improvement, even if no displacement occurs. These tenant effects bias property value measures of the benefits of government neighborhood programs. The model is tested using data from the Experimental Housing Allowance Program, and modest but important tenant effects are found.     

浅析内地物业管理的发展战略

针对我国目前物业管理业所面临的挑战与机遇,提出了物业管理企业的初步发展战略构思,以求为我国物业管理企业迅速健康发展提供参考建议。     

浅谈保险资金投资REITs

2009年10月1日,新修订的《保险法》允许保险资金可以投资于不动产,房地产作为不动产内容之一,可以成为保险资金投资渠道之一。REITs作为房地产市场股权投资的一种方式,具有非关联性、高流动性和高回报率的特点,这与保险经营具有的强外部性、成本滞后性、资金运转周期长等特点相吻合,为保险资金投资房地产搭建了难得的操作平台。通过分析保险资金投资REITs存在风险,并给出相关建议,对我国保险资金投资REITs发展起到一定的指导作用。     

The Terms of Trade and the International Transfers of Productivity Gains

In international economic relations, when movements of labour are limited and fiscal redistributive policies non-existent, changes in the terms of trade (the ratio between the prices of exports and imports) are the main driving force for the international redistribution of incomes or of productivity gains. The concept of productivity flows linked to price changes can be extended from the interindustry framework to deal with international relations bringing some new insights into the terms of trade issues. The paper develops a conceptual framework for the computation of international flows of productivity gains, taking into consideration the role of exchange rates and the meaning of Purchasing Power Parities. It is completed by a set of computations on Swiss relations with the rest of the world.     

The effects of cash holdings on corporate performance during a credit crunch: evidence from the sub-prime mortgage crisis

We examine the effects of firms’ cash positions in moderating the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on corporate performance. We find that corporate performance significantly declines following the onset of the crisis. Firms with low cash reserves had the largest declines in performance following the onset of the financial crisis. However, we do not find any differences in performance decline following the onset of the crisis, when we compare financially constrained firms to financially unconstrained firms.     

我国住房抵押贷款证券化本土化障碍和对策

住房抵押贷款证券化（Mortgage-backed Securitization，简称MBS）的推行有许多现实意义。然而，目前我国MBS的进一步发展还存在一系列问题，文中就这些问题给出相应的建议，以促进我国住房抵押贷款证券化的进一步发展。     

Predictability of tail risks of Canada and the U.S. Over a Century: The role of spillovers and oil tail Risks☆

We examine the tail risk spillovers between Canada and U.S. stock markets using over a century data, and also account for the roles of tail risks of other advanced economies (France, Germany, Japan, Italy, Switzerland, and the UK) and oil-market tail risk. We use the “best” tail risk measure obtained from different variants of the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk (CAViaR) model developed by Engle and Manganelli (2004) in the predictive model and compare its performance with that of an AR(1) benchmark model. We find strong evidence of risk spillovers between the two stock markets. We find contrasting evidence for the predictability of oil-market tail risk, with positive predictability in case of the net oil exporter and negative in case of the net oil importer. Further results using tail risks of other advanced economies (combined) support possible diversification potential for Canadian stocks in the presence of market risks of advanced economies other than the U.S. Our findings have implications for investors and are robust to various out-of-sample forecast horizons, alternative data frequencies, data splits, and 1% and 5% VaRs.