The rise of service employment and its impact on aggregate productivity growth

This paper investigates how the employment shift from manufacturing toward service sectors affects the rate of economic growth when services play their role both in intermediate and in final demand. Our model includes as a special case both Baumol’s [Baumol, W.J., 1967. Macroeconomics of unbalanced growth: the anatomy of urban crisis. American Economic Review 57 (3), 415–426] model, in which services are produced only for final consumption, and Oulton’s [Oulton, N., 2001. Must the growth rate decline? Baumol’s unbalanced growth revisited. Oxford Economic Papers 53 (4), 605–627] model, in which services are entirely devoted to intermediate demand. We show that, given that the growth rate of productivity in the service sector is lower than that in the manufacturing sector, both the employment share in manufacturing and the rate of economic growth will decline in the long run irrespective of the size of the elasticity of substitution between labor and service input.     

NEW EVIDENCE ON THE EXPANSION OF SERVICE EMPLOYMENT IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES

In this article the expansion of service sector employment is examined in detail in seven OECD countries, i.e. France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden, United Kingdom and the United States, using a newly developed set of estimates for service employment. A sufficient degree of disaggregation, consistency and harmonization was attained by merging existing national sources on employment. The twenty two distinguished service activities are aggregated into four subsectors i.e. producer, distributive, personal and social services. The new evidence revealed that the characteristics of the expansion of services claimed by a number of studies needs adjustment, and for some services the figures of recent years indicate serious changes in trends. In the sixties the growing service employment share was largely due to the expansion of social services. In the seventies and eighties growth in social services slowed down and the expansion of producer services became more prominant. Further, employment growth in personal services started to accelerate in the seventies after substantial declines in the sixties. These changing trends were most pronounced in the United States, but other countries seem to be following the same pattern with some lag.     

Can total factor productivity explain value added growth in services?

This paper examines the factors responsible for generating the services led growth witnessed in the Indian economy during 1980–2005. A sectoral growth accounting exercise shows that total factor productivity (TFP) growth was the fastest for services; moreover this TFP increase was significant in accounting for service sector value added growth. A growth model with agriculture, industry and services as three principal sectors is calibrated to Indian data using sectoral TFP growth rates. The baseline model performs well in accounting for the evolution of value added shares and their growth rates, but is unable to capture sectoral employment share trends. The performance of the model with respect to value added shares improves when the post 1991 increase in service sector TFP growth following the inception of market-based liberalization reforms is accounted for. A modified version of the model with public capital can better track trends in sectoral employment shares.     

Growth of business services: A supply‐side hypothesis

This paper aims to explain why and how the service sector may grow faster than manufacturing. It develops a two‐sector, closed‐economy model, having a manufacturing sector and a service sector. Accumulation of human capital serves as the basis of growth. The analysis focuses on business services, while household services are also considered. It is argued that differences in returns to scale between the two sectors and employment frictions in manufacturing explain why the growth rate of the service sector may be higher. The model also features that within the service sector the business services sub‐sector may grow faster than household services.     

Spatial growth and industry age

Between 1970 and 2000 employment growth across U.S. counties exhibited very different patterns in manufacturing and services. Whereas manufacturing employment growth was negatively related to initial manufacturing employment across the entire distribution of counties, service employment growth was positively related to initial service employment for intermediate sized counties. This paper presents a theory to rationalize these facts. Local sectoral growth is driven by technological diffusion across space and depends on the age of the sector. The theory correctly predicts the relation between county employment growth and initial county employment in manufacturing at the turn of the 20th century.     

Competition,taxation and economic growth

The paper mainly examines the relationship between economic growth, tax policy and sectoral labor distribution in an endogenous growth model with expanding varieties. For analyzing these relationships, we consider an economy where three sectors of production are vertically integrated: final goods sector, intermediate goods sector and research sector. We show that the extent of imperfect competition in the intermediate products market affects both economic growth and the allocation of the available labor to all the sectors employing this input. The resources from capital taxation, which are used for financing research sector, have a U-shaped effect on growth and lead to a movement of the labor from research sector to final goods sector. Additionally, we show that if there exists a higher competitive structure in an economy, the probability of the positive effect of an increase in tax on growth gets higher.     

The quality of employment in India's services sector: exploring the heterogeneity

For some observers, the dramatic growth of the services sector in India reflects rapid strides made by educated professionals. Some others see it as the expansion of an employer of last resort. Given this heterogeneity, the object of this article is to analyse the quality of employment being created in different sub-sectors of services, relative to the industrial sector, where quality is defined to include wages, job security and social protection. Analysing household survey data from India in 1993–94 and 2004–05, we find the following. First, sub-sectors of services are generally either 'good' or 'bad' employers – higher wages do not compensate for less job security or less job protection. Second, the classification of most service sub-sectors as 'good' or 'bad' employers in 2004–05 is the same as that in 1993–94. Third, employment expansion during the 10-year period under consideration is more in service sub-sectors where quality of employment is low.     

The shift to services employment: A review of the literature

This paper provides an overview of literature on the employment shift towards services. It follows the three dimensions of structural change: inter-industry productivity differences, the inter-industry division of labor (outsourcing), and shifts in final demand. It concludes that the third dimension gained importance over the last decades although differential productivity growth continued to contribute to the rise of service employment as well. Outsourcing of service tasks from manufacturing industries increased but cannot explain much of the rise in service-industry employment over time. The shift to services is not just a price effect nor is it mainly the effect of the outsourcing of service activities from manufacturing industries. The shift to services is real.     

Input-output subsystems and pollution: An application to the service sector and CO2 emissions in Spain

The analysis of input-output subsystems provides a useful tool for studying the productive structure of the different sectors of an economy. In this paper we develop this analysis to the study of the CO₂ emissions associated to the group of branches of the service sector. The decomposition of the total production of the services subsystem allows us to decompose the CO₂ emissions into five different components (own, demand volume, feed-back, internal and spill over components). From the results obtained, we can highlight the different roles played by the different branches of services. Transport activities are the services with the highest level of the direct emissions generated in the production of the sector. These activities are required by the other sectors of the economy to a greater degree than they are for their own final demand. Therefore, the production sold to other sectors causes more emissions than its own final demand. However, in the case of other service activities, direct and indirect emissions related to final demand are much more important, due to the strong pull effect of service activities on other activities of the economy. In this respect, Wholesale and retail trade, Hotels and restaurants, Real estate, renting and business activities, and Public administration services should be highlighted. These services receive scarce attention in the design of policies aimed at reducing emissions, but are notably responsible for the major increase in emissions experienced in recent years.     

Endogenous phase switch in Baumol's service paradox model

This paper develops a two-sector model that considers Baumol's service paradox. The paper simultaneously incorporates two ideas about technological progress in the model: (1) the consumption of services contributes to human capital accumulation and (2) the production of manufacturing leads to technological progress due to learning-by-doing. Accordingly, productivity growth in both services and manufacturing is endogenously determined. We show that initially, a shift in the employment share toward the services sector decreases the per capita real GDP growth rate, but at some point in time, the shift begins to increase the growth rate. Therefore, we observe an endogenous phase switch from a phase where the employment shift toward services depresses the economy to another where the employment shift promotes the economy.     

Endogenous growth and environmental policy: are the processes of growth and tertiarization in developed economies reversible?

The starting point for this article is the idea put forward by Gadrey (2008, 2010) that environmental problems and a policy of addressing them by introducing an environmental tax could trigger economic contraction and downscaling and a shrinking of the service sector in developed economies. The purpose of this article is to test these hypotheses using an evolutionary simulation model. To this end, we use a model of endogenous growth and structural change into which an environmental dimension is incorporated. The results of our simulations certainly reveal structural change within service industries but no change in the distribution of employment between services and manufacturing. Furthermore, we show that the environmentally desirable stagnation of labor productivity in the capital goods sector is compatible with a largely positive growth trend in the economy as a whole, with the development of knowledge-intensive business services apparently able partially to offset the stagnation of productivity in the capital goods sector. We conclude by emphasizing the need for environmental innovation in service activities and cast doubt on the long-term effectiveness of an environmental tax in the fight against pollution.     

Career, experience and returns to human capital: is the dual labour market hypothesis relevant for the UK?

This paper investigates the relationship between career status, labour market experience and returns to human capital accumulation in the context of a two-tier, career and non-career labour market. Using micro data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), this study detects wage and employment mechanisms that differ between these two tiers of workers. The paper finds no support for the hypothesis of strict duality, by which the returns to education are expected to differ across labour market segments, with the returns in career employment being high and positive and the returns in the non-career sector being close to zero. The paper, however, finds support for significant returns to current tenure only in the career sector and also for the scarring hypothesis, according to which part-time employment and unemployment experience have a negative effect on participation and earnings in the career sector. Finally, there is evidence that only non-career earnings are significantly affected by local demand conditions, in contrast to earnings in the career sector. Career status is modelled as an endogenous variable subject to an initial job choice.     

Trends in employment and the employment elasticity in manufacturing, 1971-92: an international comparison

Employment growth in manufacturing is limited by output growthin this sector, but the elasticity of employment with respectto output has varied widely in different regions and economies.This paper focuses attention on the idea that a major determinantof employment elasticity is the way the fruits of output growthare divided between employment growth and wage growth. But beforewe are able to determine the quantitative dimension of the trade-off,we have to allow for two other factors which affect the sizeof the cake available to labour in real terms. These are: (i)the elasticity of the wage bill with respect to output, whichdetermines the trend in the share of labour; and (ii) the priceeffect, depending partly on the rate of inflation and partlyon the movements of producer prices relative to consumer prices.A simple decomposition procedure is outlined in the paper whichallows us to quantify the relative importance of these factors,and hence give a clearer idea of the labour market outcome leaningto one or other of the two interests, employment growth andreal wage growth. The empirical analysis for different regionsof the world is carried out on time series data for the manufacturingsector collected by UNIDO from the national surveys of membercountries for the decades of the 1970s and the 1980s.     

Pricing Personal Services: An Empirical Study of Earnings in the UK Prostitution Industry

The hedonic pricing method is used to investigate the way in which the prices of prostitutes' services are determined. The data used in the analysis are extracted from an internet site, each observation being based on a report submitted by a client. The factors affecting price are identified in a regression framework, and combined with other information to provide estimates of the earnings, both aggregate and individual, for a sub‐sector of this underground service industry in the United Kingdom. Comparison of these earnings' estimates with data on earnings from alternative employment then allows us to estimate the compensating wage differential, and also to verify the theoretical prediction that prostitutes' earnings are positively related to earnings from alternative employment.     

服务业的经济增长效应研究——来自我国东部地区的实证检验

服务业发展水平是衡量一个国家或地区发展水平的重要标志,且已成为各国经济发展的新动力。采用东部地区的省级面板数据,实证检验了服务业对区域经济增长的影响。研究表明,东部地区快速发展的服务业有力地促进了经济的增长。     

Labor Informality: Choice or Sign of Segmentation? A Quantile Regression Approach at the Regional Level for Colombia

The labor market in developing countries is remarkably heterogeneous, with a small productive formal sector characterized by high wages and attractive employment conditions, and a large informal sector characterized by low productivity and volatile wages. The informal sector is particularly diverse. In this paper, we examine the heterogeneity of the informal sector at the regional level in Colombia. In general, our findings suggest that both voluntary and involuntary informal employment co‐exist by choice and as a consequence of labor market segmentation. We also find that there are striking differences in labor market characteristics across cities, particularly with respect to informal employment.     

Private sector employment in Russia: Scale, composition and performance

In Russia, as across Central and Eastern Europe, privatization and the establishmemt of new private firms have been viewed as key factors in labour market adjustment during the transition period. This paper considers the overall employment developments in the private sector in Russia and the extent to which the private sector employment performance is differentiated from that of other sectors in five Russian regions. The analysis is based on a fresh look at these issues using official statistics published by Goskomstat and drawing on microdata from the March 1996 Russian Labour Force Survey (LFS). A special questionnaire attached to the LFS in the study regions provides supplementary information.
The paper highlights shifts in the sectoral composition of employment, including growth in private sector employment. Compared to other forms of ownership, the analysis confirms a tendency for private sector ownership in the study regions to be associated with stronger employment performance with respect to hours worked and, in some cases, timely payment of wages. Private sector firms appear to have relatively flexible employment patterns, utilizing more fixed-term or part-time employment than other types of firms and experiencing greater labour turnover. Also, private sector employees tend to be somewhat younger and probably more adaptable people. However, there is significant variation across the study regions and substantial exceptions exist with respect to the above-mentioned tendencies. With respect to employment issues, the differentiation between sectors appears to be less pronounced than one might have expected.     

Labour Market Policy Developments in Japan: Following an Australian Lead?

In recent times, Japan has experienced a rapid expansion in its service sector, increases in casual and part‐time employment and record unemployment. In addition, there has been an associated rise of freeters and NEETs—predominantly young workers with tenuous labour market attachment. While somewhat slow in initiating policy responses, the Japanese government responded to these structural changes by reforming its existing employment policies. In this article we argue that recent changes in the nature of Japan's labour market policies appear to have been driven by some of the same factors which led to the radical overhaul of Australia's own labour market policies.     

New Technologies And The Demand For Heterogeneous Labor: Firm-Level Evidence For The German Business-Related Service Sector

This paper investigates the impact of modern information and communication technologies on the demand for heterogeneous labor. It starts with an interrelated factor demand system. The ‘desired’ level of employment which is needed in such models, is derived from a Generalized Leontief cost function with quasi-fixed factors. Firm-level, cross-sectional data taken from an innovation survey in the service sector are used in the empirical analysis. The model is estimated by a trivariate ordered probit model. Evidence in favor of skill-biased technological change in the fast-growing German business-related services sector is found. ‘Ibe paper suggests a new method of calculating skill-specific and firm-specific labor cost from information on total labor cost and the share of each skill group in total employment only.     

Transition in Importance of Service Sector in Indian Economy: 1968–69–1993℃94

The importance of service sector in terms of its share in national income/GDP has been growing progressively in Indian economy throughout the post independence period. The objective of this paper is to make an assessment of the importance of the service sector which accounts the value added originating from service sector in total value added produced, needed directly and indirectly to produce gross output in Indian economy during the period 1968–69 to 1993–94. For this purpose, an index of vertical integration has been constructed which provides a dimension-free measure of the multiplier of each industry on the value-added originating from the service sector to total value added. Empirical part of this study shows that Trade, Other services, Electricity, Railway Transport Services, Chemicals and Construction played a role of key sector in terms of importance of Service sector as input for their production throughout the study period of the Indian economy. They provided strong stimulus to the economy by inducing greater value addition to service sector. In general, services industries appear to be the highly growth- inducing sector in so far as it helps higher value addition to other industries.