直面新的贸易壁垒——国外对华反倾销成因与对策

20世纪70年代以来，随着国际贸易自由化的加强，降低关税水平和减少非关税措施已在全球范围内展开，目前发达国家工业制成品的平均关税已降低到3％左右。历史上传统的贸易壁垒已失去了原有的作用。但出于对本国利益的考虑，世界各国对本国产业的保护从来没有停止过，保护的手段也不断变化。在可选择的“符合国际惯例”的保护手段中，反倾销就成了最常用最有效的一种手段。在反倾销这种堂而皇之的武器的庇护下，相当多的国家滥用反倾销条款，以反倾销名义实行贸易保护主义。     

Indonesian Monetary Policy During the 1997–98 Crisis: A Monetarist Perspective

This paper defends the IMF's strategy of targeting base money (M0) in 1997–98 against the criticism by Grenville (2000) that it was destined to fail because M0 is mainly demand determined and the demand for it was increased by a large and unpredictable amount by the banking panic. Grenville contends that Indonesian monetary policy should have aimed at domestic price stability. It is argued here that the growth of M0 far exceeded what could be justified by last resort lending to accommodate the banking panic, and that rapid inflation could only have been avoided by preventing most of the expansion of the public's cash holding that actually occurred. Achieving a modest target for domestic inflation would not therefore have been very different in practice from setting tight limits on the growth of M0. In contrast, both these policies would have been very different from the loss of control over M0 that actually occurred.     

Exports,Imports and Productivity: Results from Indonesian Establishment Data

Using detailed micro data from the Indonesian manufacturing sector we examine whether participation in international trade affects establishments' productivity. Establishments participating in exports or imports have relatively high levels of productivity. Furthermore, the results suggest that establishments engaged only in exports have shown comparable high productivity growth. The larger the share of an establishment's output that is exported, the higher its productivity growth. The results concerning the effect of imports on productivity growth are mixed.     

Insolvency Reform and the Indonesian Financial Crisis

Treatments of Indonesia's financial crisis customarily focus on exchange rate collapse, neglecting the question of why enterprises were so highly leveraged beforehand. This article reviews controlling shareholder-debtor behaviour both before and during the crisis. It then examines Indonesia's emergency bankruptcy legislation effective August 1998—which enjoys a mixed record in implementation—and articulates bankruptcy policy principles for the replacement legislation now being drafted. Progress on the insolvency front has been limited to a relatively small number of voluntary debt reorganisations. Early indications are that such restructurings largely take the form of debt rescheduling rather than debt-equity swaps, loan write-offs, or other approaches that would lessen enterprises' heavy leveraging. This outcome reflects problems in creditor as well as debtor preferences. What began as a private sector insolvency problem increasingly overlaps with efforts to address general banking sector difficulties. Further, nationalism questions complicate the resolution of insolvencies.     

一个反倾销的治本方案评述

中国产品遭遇贸易伙伴国的反倾销,大有势头越来越猛、品种越来越多、范围越来越广之势。据商务部统计,截至2004年5月底,已有34个国家和地区发起了637起涉及中国出口产品的反倾销、反补贴、保障措施及特保调查。其中,反倾销调查573起,反补贴2起,保障措施调查51起,特保调查11起,涉及4000多种商品,影响了中国约186亿美元的出口贸易。2003年,就有19个国家和地区对中国反倾销、保障措施及特保立案59起,涉案金额约22亿美元,涉案部门与2002年相比,增长了178%。从涉案数量和涉案金额看,对中国产品实施反倾销最严厉的国家和地区是美国和欧盟。仅2003…     

Obstacles to ‘Catch-Up’: The Case of the Indonesian Aircraft Industry

This paper examines the development of the Indonesian aircraft industry. Despite the accumulation of considerable engineering and production capabilities, technical competence has not been a sufficient condition for commercial success. An important reason for the asymmetry between technical accomplishment and performance is underdeveloped managerial capacity. This case raises questions about the viability of policies intended to promote technological ‘catch up’ in complex industries.     

The Volume and Price of Indonesian Exports, 1823 To 1940: The Long-Term Trend and its Measurement 1

This article is concerned with indices of export volume and prices in Indonesia from 1823 to 1940. It discusses the sources from which the quantitative information on exports is derived. Previous indices are shown and their shortcomings are considered. Next, Laspeyres quantity indices and Paasche unit value and price indices for agricultural and total exports are presented. These indices are based on fixed weights for eight sub-periods. The paper also discusses the features and shortcomings of the more sophisticated Divisia index, and concludes with some remarks on the long-term trend of exports from Indonesia.     

Indonesian Agricultural Development: The Awkward Case of Smallholder Tree Crops 1

The problems of transforming smallholder tree crops from traditional low-yielding to modern high-yielding technology are examined, using a meta production function approach to analyse the changes. The role of government in transformation is considered, and various ‘individual’ and ‘black’ improvement schemes implemented since the 1950s are analysed. Many of these schemes have not teen successful owing to poor planning and inadequate managerial and financial support, and their coverage has been small in relation to the huge areas needing improvement. The paper suggests a more modest ‘dispasal’ approach to transformation, concerned with setting up nurseries to provide better quality planting material and advice to individual fanners. But even this revised approach should be carefully planned and executed light of previous mistakes if it is to have widespread impact.     

纺织品出口走进数量许可管理

在中欧纺织品协议签署后．为加快中国纺织品出口增长方式的转变，稳定纺织品出口经营秩序，商务部6月19日发布公告．自7月20日起实施《纺织品出口临时管理办法（暂行）》（以下简称《办法》）．本刊特邀商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院专家梅新育博士对《办法》进行评析，纺织企业将如何避免盲目出口？新参与企业能有多大市场空间？出口手续是否复杂？对于这些问题．梅博士进行了精辟分析．值得广大企业参考。     

The Incidence of Protection on Exports: The Case of Spain, 1870–1913

The aim of this article is to analyze the effects of tariffs on nonprotected sectors through an application of the model of tax incidence of protection to a country and period defined by Heckscher–Ohlin-type specialization and no relevant support to protect exporters, namely, Spain between 1870 and 1913. The consideration of such a case allows us to perform different specifications of the model, based on relative internal prices, through ADL methods that show a negative incidence of protection for exporters, softer in the short term by the influence of income and international prices, and stable through changes in trade policy.     

The European Monetary Policy Responses During the Pandemic Crisis

This paper uses an event-based analysis to describe how the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) policy responses to the pandemic crisis have affected the European financial and economic system. The result of our exercise, which is based on the examination of the main measures taken by the ECB during 2020, is that these responses have positively affected the European economic system by improving banks’ lending activity and by indirectly creating room for expansionary fiscal policies in the euro area’s high-debt countries that do not have fiscal capacity.

     

Unit Labour Costs, International Competitiveness, and Exports: The Case of Senegal

Despite some favourable conditions and a number of policy reforms,Senegal's participation in the global economy remains tenuous.This paper uses a Ricardian framework to study Senegal's internationalcompetitiveness in manufacturing. Wages, productivity and unitlabour costs in Senegal are compared to those of other developingcountries. Senegal's labour productivity has grown much moreslowly than in successful emerging economies. The 1994 devaluationof the CFA franc has dramatically improved Senegal's internationalcompetitiveness but further improvements in competitivenessdepend on productivity growth given the constraint of the fixedexchange rate. We find a significant effect of relative unitlabour costs on exports, particularly of manufactured goods.Sustained export-led growth, however, requires additional structuralreforms.     

基于CMS模型的印尼对中国园艺产品出口额增长因素分析

报告了印尼对中国园艺产品出口贸易的现状,采用2010-2014年UN COMTRADE数据,应用恒定市场份额模型（CMS模型）的简化形式,即单一市场份额模型分析印尼对中国园艺产品出口额增长的主要影响因素。结果表明印尼园艺产品出口额增长最主要的影响因素是竞争力效应,其次是结构效应,次结构效应的影响最小。从发展优势来看,商品竞争力效应和综合竞争力效应占主要的因素,其次是动态结构效应,最后是产品结构效应和增长效应。为了提高印尼园艺产品的出口额,建议印尼政府能够把出口原料转为出口半成品或最终产品,增加印尼园艺产品的出口附加值。     

Indonesian Foreign Debt: Headed for A Crisis or Financing Sustainable Growth?

This paper examines the build-up in Indonesia's foreign debt between 1981 and 1993, and explores the potential for a debt crisis during Repelita VI. It concludes that Indonesia is not headed toward a crisis in the immediate future- Borrowed funds have generally financed productive investments, contributing to rapid growth in GDP and exports since the late 1980s. If recent trends continue, debt should ease gradually; if not, the economy could withstand a substantial balance of payments shock, at least for a while. A debt servicing problem, although unlikely, is conceivable by the end of the decade. Short-term debt is growing rapidly, non-oil export growth has slowed, and debt service remains high. Appropriate government actions to reduce the potential for a crisis include further deregulation to support growth in non-oil exports, discouraging implicit government guarantees for private sector projects, and reducing government exposure to yen-denominated debt.