Introducing the supply side into the LBS Model

This Briefing Paper describes a new version of the London Business School model, which incorporates our most recent research on the supply side. The changes reflect the desire to improve the specification of the supply-side of the model, and to capture the effects of taxes on the incentives to save, invest and to work, while still retaining the basic features of the income-expenditure framework. The main features of the new model are: - Gross domestic product is determined as the sum of the outputs of five sectors. Previously GDP was determined by the demand side as the sum of the expenditure components. - Domestic demand for the output of the private sector depends on domestic absorption and on the price of this output relative to import prices. Overseas demand for exports depends on world economic activity and on the price of exports relative to the world price of exports. - Supply depends on the capital stock, real unit labour costs and real raw material prices. In the short run, input prices are allowed to affect the mix between goods which are exported and those which are supplied to the domestic market. In the long run, however, the mix depends only on the price of exports relative to the price of domestically supplied goods (i.e., relative profitability). - In the short run, disequilibrium in the goods market is reflected in adjustments to prices, inventories and the external balance. - Since gross domestic product is determined by summing the output of each sector, output decisions are reconciled with expenditure decisions by making imports the difference between final expenditure and aggregate supply. - In the long run, increases in government expenditure crowd out private expenditure, but the effect takes several years to come through. - A cut in corporation taxes which is not financed by higher taxes elsewhere boosts the supply side by raising investment and the capital stock, but not by enough to raise revenues sufficiently to pay for the tax cut. Private sector saving increases but not by enough to fund higher public sector borrowing, so the current account goes into deficit. - In the short run, both supply and demand factors influence economic activity; in the long run, the path of the economy depends only on population growth, capital accumulation and technical progress.     

Carbon taxes and the double dividend hypothesis in a recursive-dynamic CGE model for Spain

A carbon tax is potentially a policy that can reduce CO₂ emissions and mitigate climate risks, at lowest economy-wide costs. We develop a dynamic CGE model for Spain to assess the economic and environmental effects of a carbon tax, and test the double dividend (DD) hypothesis. We simulate the impact of three carbon taxes: €10, €20 and €30 per ton of CO₂. For each tax, four ‘revenue recycling’ scenarios are examined: a reduction of taxes on capital, on labor, on value-added tax, and a scenario in which revenues are not recycled. We find a DD for taxes of €10/ton and lower, within five to seven years of implementation. We estimate an annual CO₂ emissions reduction of around 10% with this tax. Under some circumstances, the DD can be achieved for a tax of €20/ton. In any case, recycling revenues to cut pre-existing taxes reduces costs of imposing carbon taxes.     

How Much Revenue Would a Full Land Value Tax Yield?In the United States in 1981, Census and Federal Reserve Data Indicate It Would Nearly Equal All Taxes

Abstract . Most urban economists and particularly specialists in urban public finance consider the land value tax, because of its economic effects and its influence toward rational development, the tax of choice. But could it replace, in whole or in large part, taxes which now burden labor and capital and distort efficient allocation of resources? How important would a full land rent tax's yield be? The U.S. Bureau of the Census provides data which, adjusted for errors and omissions, indicates that the annual land rent for 1981 was $721 billion. Federal Reserve Board data, similarly adjusted, indicates annual land rent for that year was $590.38 billion Hence we may say that a full land rent tax would yield something around $658 billion in 1981, or 28 percent of the 1981 national income. This is nearly two thirds of all taxes levied by all levels of government in 1981, and, with user charges and similar fees continued, it is probably equal or nearly equal to burdensome taxes.     

Public Spending, Land Taxes and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of the Adequacy of Land as a Tax Base

Abstract . Site value taxation is often cited as desirable on efficiency grounds, but is all too often dismissed for alleged lack of revenue potential. This paper empirically tests the revenue adequacy of site value taxation. Revenue adequacy in this study is defined as the ability of the tax base to keep pace with community expenditure needs. The paper concludes that communities with higher than average rates of capital growth and with a relatively constrained land area will find land taxes when subsituted for present property taxes, quite adequate for future as well as present needs.     

Tourism, Vacation Home Development and Residential Tax Burden:

Abstract . Differences in property tax rates among communities within a regional economy are a source of inefficiency and inequity. Less developed rural areas where natural amenities exist have often attempted to use the tourist industry as a means of importing economic development. Promoters of vacation home development argue that the impact on the local tax base is positive. However, the quantitative research in this paper indicates that under certain circumstances, vacation home development has the effect of increasing the tax burden on residential property.     

On the power function of the exact test for ther×c contingency table

Summary LetN=[n _ij ] (i=1, …,r;j=1, …,c) be the matrix of observed frequencies in anr×c contingency table fromr possibly different multinomial populations with respective probabilitiesp _i =(p _i1, …,p _ic ).Freeman andHalton have proposed an exact conditional test for the hypothesisH ₀ :p _i =(p ₁, …p _c ) of the exact test is derived. Numerical values forβ(p) were previously computed for the special case:r=3,c=2 [Bennett andNakamura, 1964].     

The UK corporate tax reform and business investment decisions

The 1984 Finance Act made fundamental changes to the UK corporate tax system. Evidence from a detailed study of sixty past investment decisions is used to assess the likely effects of the shift from a high-tax, high-allowance system to a system of low taxes and allowances. This suggests that 100% allowances have had little impact on the scale of investment since 1979, reflecting limited taxable capacity and the importance of market considerations in investment decisions. Timing effects were more common, especially among small firms sampled. The post-tax cost of capital will fall for some firms but few appeared to use strict cost of capital criteria in assessing investments.     

The winners and losers of tax reform: An assessment under financial integration

I quantify the macroeconomic and redistributive effects of the unilateral elimination of the capital income tax in a two-country, heterogeneous-agent incomplete markets model with progressive labor income taxes. Home, by implementing the reform, induces government responses where labor income is taxed in Home and mostly subsidized in Foreign. In addition, post-reform price dynamics reduce Home’s wealth and suppress households’ ability to do consumption smoothing, with negative effects on the majority—particularly on the poor. In turn, Foreign accumulates wealth, and price movements work particularly in favor of the poor. As a result, a large majority in Home prefers the status quo whereas Foreign supports the reform unanimously. These findings are robust to alternative scenarios where (i) the borrowing constraints are relaxed, (ii) both countries jointly eliminate capital income taxes, (iii) foreign interest income is taxed, and (iv) Home capital income tax is reduced from 40% to 35%.     

Alternative tax constitutions and risky education in a federation

I analyze a two-period model in which risk-averse students divide their time between risky education, leisure, and work. The educated can migrate. Wage-tax financed transfer to students acts as an insurance, and increases both human capital investment and demand for leisure. I derive sufficient conditions for tax competition to lead to inefficiently low wage tax rates. I suggest that the educated should pay their wage taxes to the region which has financed their education. I show that this would increase taxation and human capital investment, and would also benefit the owners of the complementary factor.     

Federal Income Tax Reform in the United States: How Did It Happen? What Did It Do? Where Do We Go from Here?

Abstract . The 16th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution in 1913 provided the legal basis for progressive federal income taxes. They now yield revenues of about $450 billion annually. Tax base erosion eventually produced a levy in serious violation of norms of allocation efficiency, distributional equity, and macroeconomic performance. Vested private interests influenced legislators by propaganda and campaign contributions to minimize their tax burdens at the expense of less wealthy taxpayers. The result was an irrational and badly flawed tax structure. In 1981 the maximum marginal tax rate on income from property and wealth was significantly reduced along with other bracket reductions. The income tax reform movement culminated in 1984 to 1986. It expanded the base of the tax while reducing marginal rates as well as brackets, with little change in the distribution of the burden among different income groups but achieving some greater equity in tax liabilities for those with similar incomes.     

An Address by a Georgist Sympathizer: Practical Issues in Georgist Thought

The justice and soundness of the taxation of land rent is acknowledged but problems in assessing imply a need to introduce better methods. This is particularly true when attempting to introduce the more saleable idea of two-rate tax systems because the allocation of total value of real estate parcels between land and buildings is even more arbitrarily done than determining the total assessment. The ideas fit best at the local level and there is little chance of replacing income or sales taxes. A 100% tax would be impossible since it would lead to an avalanche of tax appeals and the abandonment of some land since a high percentage of assessments are in error. The idea of a single tax does not fit modern times when revenue needs determine taxes, rather than the amount of revenue collected determining proper or necessary government expenditure levels. One tax source may be unpopular and regarded as a dangerous concept. Land is probably less important and less relatively valuable than it used to be because of technological change. Some advances in social legislation may mitigate the need for the drastic reform, George who was a moralist deeply concerned about poverty, felt reform was needed in his day. He was right about the impacts of various taxes on economic activity and income distribution.     

The Vermont Land Gains Tax Experience With It Provides a Useful Lesson in the Design of Modern Land Policy

Abstract . Vermont is currently the only state which employs a special capital gains tax on certain land sales. A comparison between the Vermont land gains tax and Henry George's Single Tax provides a useful lesson in the design of modern land policy. The Vermont tax is aimed at discouraging short run land speculation, while the Single Tax seeks to discourage the long term quasimonopoly of land ownership. The Single Tax would capture unearned increments to land value while the Vermont tax applies only to realized capital gains and tends to reward long term speculators. An empirical analysis of the Vermont tax reveals that tax revenues have been small, and that the tax has not prevented a rise in land values. In fact, the Vermont tax may have increased land prices by restricting available land supply. Although the Vermont tax intended to curb speculation and reduce land subdivision activity, it is not a substitute for land use planning and carefully designed growth control ordinances and regulations.     

Tax competition in a fiscal union with decentralized leadership

This paper examines capital tax competition in the presence of an interstate transfer policy without federal commitment. Lack of commitment implies that local tax policy is chosen prior to federal transfers. The paper's main result is that ex-post federal policy neutralizes horizontal fiscal externalities, insulating tax policy from capital mobility. Federal policy, however, introduces a new source of inefficiency unrelated to tax competition. Specifically, ex-post transfer payments prove to be equivalent to an interstate revenue-sharing system which may render federal intervention in the presence of fiscal externalities welfare-deteriorating relative to tax competition.     

One-Sample Bayesian Predictive Interval of Future Ordered Observations for the Pareto Distribution

Nigm et al. (2003, statistics 37: 527–536) proposed Bayesian method to obtain predictive interval of future ordered observation Y _(j) (r < j≤ n ) based on the right type II censored samples Y ₍₁₎ < Y ₍₂₎ < ... < Y _(r) from the Pareto distribution. If some of Y ₍₁₎ < ... < Y _(r-1) are missing or false due to artificial negligence of typist or recorder, then Nigm et al.’s method may not be an appropriate choice. Moreover, the conditional probability density function (p.d.f.) of the ordered observation Y _(j) (r < j ≤ n ) given Y ₍₁₎ <Y ₍₂₎ < ... < Y _(r) is equivalent to the conditional p.d.f. of Y _(j) (r < j ≤ n ) given Y _(r). Therefore, we propose another Bayesian method to obtain predictive interval of future ordered observations based on the only ordered observation Y _(r), then compares the length of the predictive intervals when using the method of Nigm et al. (2003, statistics 37: 527–536) and our proposed method. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate these results.     

Changes in China’s production-source CO2 emissions: insights from structural decomposition analysis and linkage analysis

This paper presents an input–output based methodology – structural decomposition analysis (SDA) plus linkage analysis, for identifying the key factors and sectors that affected production-source CO₂ emissions in China. The proposed methodology extends the SDA to account for the import substitution effect within an open economy such as China and incorporates the emission linkage by which the effect of the input mix on CO₂ emissions can be understood in depth. Empirical results indicate that, between 2005 and 2010, improving emission intensity and input intensity had helped to reduce CO₂ emissions; meanwhile, capital investment explained the majority of the increases in CO₂ emissions brought about by final demand, and import substitution was also observed to increase CO₂ emissions. Moreover, nine key emission sectors have been identified, and in this regard, domestic inputs became more CO₂-intensive in 2010 than it was in 2005.     

Derivation of a joint occupancy distribution via a bivariate inclusion and exclusion formula

Consider a supply of balls randomly distributed into n distinguishable urns and assume that the number of balls distributed into any specific urn is a random variable with probability function . The joint probability function and binomial moments of the number K_i of urns occupied by i balls each and the number K_j of urns occupied by j balls each, i≠j, given that a total of S_n=m balls are distributed into the n urns, are derived in terms of convolutions of q_x, x=0,1, . . . and their finite differences. Also, some illustrating examples are discussed.     

Transaction costs, capital-gains taxes, and housing demand

The paper considers the effect of transaction costs—particularly in the form of capital-gains taxes—on the aggregate demand for owner-occupied housing. The framework is an overlapping-generations model, where consumers can avoid the transaction costs (taxes) by keeping the same house for both periods of life. The first part of the paper analyzes the consumer's choice problem. It distinguishes between costs that are fixed irrespective of the size of the house bought or sold, and costs such as capital-gains taxes that are related to the house value. It is shown that higher transaction costs have lock-in effects, inducing consumers to keep the same house for both periods. Also it is found that under a wide variety of circumstances the amount of housing demanded will increase as the household is being locked in. Finally, the paper looks at the effects on aggregate demand from an increase in capital-gains taxes. It is shown that an increased rate of taxation decreases demand for low tax rates. But for high tax rates, when lock-in effects become important, one generally gets the opposite effect; high tax rates tend to increase housing demand.     

Tax evasion and work in the underground sector

A bivariate random effect panel data model is estimated for male labour supply in the taxable and the non-taxable sectors in Denmark. The wage rates and non-labour income have significant effects on labour supply in both sectors. The average own wage elasticity with respect to underground labour supply is found to be small, 0.02, while the cross price elasticity from regular wages is larger, − 0.52. Simulations of potential tax reforms show that a reduction of the marginal taxes has minor effects on male labour supply to the untaxed sector, while the effect on male labour supply to the taxed sector is larger.     

Fiscal reform,bank solvency,and the law of unintended consequences: a CGE analysis of Mexico

Whether due to random economic shocks or deliberate policy measures, sudden relative price changes can lower bank solvency. Whereas “winners”—i.e., those sectors experiencing improved net prices for their output—aren’t obliged to share their good fortune with banks, “losers” my share their bad fortune by electing to default on bank loans. This paper presents a disaggregated dynamic computable general equilibrium model, used to analyze specifically how current policy proposals to stimulate savings might affect solvency in different sectors. We find surprising capital losses in pesos for two of the three policies simulated, which would leave domestic currency debtors substantially worse off.