What Monetary Policy after the Crisis?

The objective of this paper is to reflect on some of the implications that recent economic experience has for monetary and financial stability policies. We contend that the financial crisis and the upsurge in inflation 2007–08 have shown that the policy model based on the new consensus in macroeconomics, which largely held sway over the past decade or more, is broken. It is argued that inflation targeting cannot deliver low inflation. We argue that fine-tuning through interest rates should not be attempted, but rather a constant real interest rate target based on the output growth rate should be adopted. The key objective of monetary policy should be shifted to financial stability, the independence of central banks should be brought to an end, and their decision making should be coordinated with other macroeconomic policy initiatives.     

Analyzing the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy: Does Fiscal Policy Play a Valuable Role in Stabilisation?

This paper provides an overview of recent papers which use estimatedNew Keynesian models to study the extent to which fiscal policycan be used to stabilize the economy. We use a variety of differentNew Keynesian models, estimated on data for both the US andfor the Euro area, and highlight the diverse transmission channelsthrough which fiscal policy acts in these models. Although wefind that fiscal policy can provide a useful complement to monetarypolicy, especially in models where consumers have finite horizons,there are important limitations to the value added of fiscalpolicy. (JEL E58, E62, E63)     

Inflation Targeting - the Holy Grail of Monetary Policy?

Inflation targeting is a statement about the objective of central bank policy and not about operating procedures. Its success depends not only on the actions of the central bank, but requires a broad consensus concerning the proper role of monetary policy in the economy. It also requires the backing of a sound fiscal policy. As countries differ both in economic structure and monetary transmission mechanism, the implementation of inflation targeting must be country specific. Instability over time in the transmission mechanism also implies that inflation targeting strategies must evolve to avoid the fate of previous monetary policy targeting practices.     

Is There a Win–Win Situation in Household Energy Policy?

To achieve environmental goals, most governments aim to reduce consumption of the most polluting energy goods by taxation. Often, the authorities not only aim to change the consumption of the regulated good by the taxation, but also to change the consumption of close substitutes (hereafter referred to as win–win effects). The size of the win–win effects depend not only on how close substitutes the goods are, but also on the price sensitivity of the taxed good and on the budget effects of the regulation. We use a conditional demand model to decompose the cross-price effect to discuss which criteria that must be fulfilled in order for substantial win–win effects to occur, using Norwegian stationary energy consumption as an empirical example.     

Is the EU ETS a Just Climate Policy?

The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is in dire straits. Prone to design problems and suffering from the effects of the economic crises the scheme is criticised for its poor achievements. In this paper we will analyse some of the features of this situation from an ethical perspective. The major part is dedicated to the complications within each phase of the EU ETS and to the recent developments it has undergone. We will briefly discuss the remedies suggested by prominent commentators. Furthermore, any policy tool to tackle climate change should be evaluated in view of the profound equity issues that are inherent to the climate problem. We will evaluate the EU ETS according to two justice-based criteria, related to effectiveness and the distribution of the duties involved in climate change, respectively. We will conclude that the EU ETS, in its current form, clearly lacks fairness on both criteria. However, the biggest problem is the unwillingness of EU leaders to mend, what could be, a commendable climate policy tool. To that extent, we argue, those leaders are acting unjustly.     

Is a Policy of Free Movement of Workers Sustainable?

In this paper, we study the costs and benefits of the adoption of a policy of free movement of workers. For countries to agree on uncontrolled movements of workers, short‐run costs must be outweighed by the long‐term benefits of better labor‐market flexibility and income smoothing. We show that such a policy is less likely to be adopted when workers are more impatient and less risk‐averse, when production technologies display stronger decreasing returns, and when countries trade a significant share of their products.     

Analysis on Inefficiency of Transmitting the Monetary Policy of the Capital Market

Looking from the institutional system that the stock market services the state-owned enterprises, the bad corporate governing structure of the state-owned listed companies, the lack of balance between the yield from an investment and the stock, and the polarization of the wealth distribution in the stock market, we make an intensive analysis and exploration on the inefficiency of transmitting monetary policy of Chinese capital market herein.     

ICT Investment and Economic Growth in the 1990s: Is the United States a Unique Case?: A Comparative Study of Nine OECD Countries

This paper compares the impact of information and communication technology (ICT) capital accumulation on output growth in Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Over the past two decades, ICT contributed between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage point per year to economic growth, depending on the country. During the second half of the 1990s, this contribution rose to 0.3 to 0.9 percentage point per year. Despite differences between countries, the United States has not been alone in benefiting from the positive effects of ICT capital investment on economic growth nor was the United States the sole country to experience an acceleration of these effects. ICT diffusion and ICT usage play a key role and depend on the right framework conditions, not necessarily on the existence of a large ICT-producing sector.     

The Euro Area,a Stressful Monetary Union? Learning from Newspapers’ Monetary Policy Coverage

Through a textual analysis of national newspaper articles covering European central bankers’ statements and policy decisions from 1999 to 2011, I derive the concerns expressed by national media in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). I consider these concerns as a benchmark for national preferences, and thus for the preferences of national central bankers in the EMU. I also test the existence of groups of national media (i.e., national publics) according to their shared expressed concerns. The results show that in the euro zone, similar concerns are shared by different country groups, corresponding to a group of countries from Northern Europe (Belgium, Finland, and the Netherlands), Southern Europe (Spain and Portugal), and the Periphery (Italy, Greece, and Ireland), but that there are two isolated countries (France and Germany), whose newspapers do not share the issues raised by the rest of the European newspapers. This approach provides further insights into the potential heterogeneity of the European central bankers inside the Governing Council of the ECB in terms of policy preferences.     

EU Banks Rating Assignments: Is There Heterogeneity between New and Old Member Countries?

We model EU countries' bank ratings using financial variables and allowing for intercept and slope heterogeneity. Our aim is to assess whether “old” and “new” EU countries are rated differently and to determine whether “new” ones are assigned lower ratings, ceteris paribus, than “old” ones. We find that country‐specific factors (in the form of heterogeneous intercepts) are a crucial determinant of ratings. Whilst “new” EU countries typically have lower ratings than “old” ones, after controlling for financial variables we also discover that all countries have significantly different intercepts, confirming our prior belief. This intercept heterogeneity suggests that each country's rating is assigned uniquely, after controlling for differences in financial factors, which may reflect differences in country risk and the legal and regulatory framework that banks face (such as foreclosure laws). In addition, we find that ratings may respond differently to the liquidity and operating expenses to operating income variables across countries. Typically ratings are more responsive to the former and less sensitive to the latter for “new” EU countries compared with “old” EU countries.     

Is Ecolabelling a Reliable Environmental Policy Measure?

The rationale of ecolabelling is to enable firms to reap the willingness-to-payfor the environmental attributes of goods by helping consumers toidentify ``green' products. By so doing, ecolabelling is expected tostimulate spontaneous environmental innovation and to reduce aggregatedpollution. Our analysis however outlines situations under whichecolabelling could induce perverse effects, namely increased investment inconventional technologies before the labels are awarded, and examineswhether restricting the issue of labels could constitute an antidote.     

Privatizing Climate Change Policy: Is there a Public Benefit?

The Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) and the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) are two private voluntary initiatives aimed at reducing carbon emissions and improving carbon management by firms. I sample power plants from firms participating in each of these programs, and match these to plants belonging to non-participating firms, to control for differences between participating and non-participating plants. Using a difference-in-differences model to control for unobservable differences between participants and non-participants, and to control for the trajectory of emissions prior to program participation, I find that the CCX is associated with a decrease in total carbon dioxide emissions for participating plants when non-publicly traded firms are included in the sample. Effects are produced largely by decreases in output. CCX participation is associated with increases in carbon dioxide intensity. The CDP is not associated with a decrease of carbon dioxide emissions or electricity generation, and program participation is associated with an increase in carbon dioxide intensity. I explore these results within the context of voluntary environmental programs to address carbon emissions.     

Trade Liberalization and Antidumping: Is There a Substitution Effect?

Many nations have undergone significant trade liberalization even as they have increased their use of contingent protection measures. This raises the question of whether some of the trade liberalization efforts, at times accomplished through painful reforms, have been undone through a substitution from tariffs to non‐tariff barriers. Among the new forms of protection, antidumping is the most relevant. This paper examines whether the use of antidumping is systematically influenced by the reduction of applied sectoral tariffs in a sample of 29 developing and six developed countries from 1991 through 2002. Evidence is found of a substitution effect only for a small set of heavy users of antidumping among developing countries. There is no similar statistically significant result for other developing countries or developed countries. Robust evidence is also found of retaliation and deflection effects as determinant of antidumping filings across all subsamples.     

Is There a Glass Ceiling over Germany?

This paper analyzes the gender wage gap across the wage distribution using 2010 data from the German Statistical Agency. I investigate East and West Germany and the public sector separately to account for potential heterogeneities in wage gaps. I apply unconditional and conditional quantile regression methods to investigate the differences between highly paid men and women in distributions conditional and unconditional on covariates. The results indicate increasing gender wage gaps in all estimations, suggesting that there is indeed a glass ceiling over Germany even after controlling for a large set of observable characteristics (including occupation and industry). This finding is even more pronounced when also taking bonus payments into account.     

Whatever Inconsistencies and Effects? Explaining the Resilience of the Policy Reforms Applied to Developing Countries

Why is ‘neoliberalism’ still a predominant framework within economics and policy-making? This paper considers the mix of theoretical assumptions, causalities and policies known as the ‘Washington consensus’, focusing on developing countries. First, it analyses their main elements, resilience and effects (the ‘lost decades in spite of policy reform’). Second, it examines the reasons of this resilience and argues that a reason is their adaptive capacity via constant exchanges between facts and conceptual assumptions, because this mix is constituted of heterogeneous elements (from neoclassical theory, ad hoc models or empirics-based policy-making): inconsistency is a core feature and as such its correction is irrelevant. These ‘adaptive inconsistencies’ are consolidated by the simultaneous theoretical/policy dimension of the mix. Its cognitive resilience is reinforced by the irrefutability of causations and the cause/effect time lag (‘after current costs, there will be gains’, e.g. growth), and is not challenged by the social costs of policies.     

Sectoral and Aggregate Technology Shocks:Is There a Relationship?

We analyze sector-specific shocks in productivity and demand in 19 manufacturing sectors of the Austrian economy. Based on a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) with long-run restrictions developed by Galí (1999) we extract technology and non-technology shocks from sectoral and aggregate data. We study their patterns and relationship by means of a principal components analysis and find a close association of sectoral and macroeconomic non-technology shocks but only a very weak association for technology shocks. Impulse response analysis indicates that for almost all manufacturing sectors as well as the aggregate Austrian economy productivity growth rates experience an immediate increase due to positive technology shocks while hours worked decline. Thereby we confirm Galís results on the level of Austrian manufacturing industries. From regression analysis, we find that our shocks are closely associated to employment growth and output growth but not to investment growth and that the reaction is different for the aggregate economy and manufacturing industries.JEL codes: D24, E23, E32, O30We thank Werner Müller and the participants of the 2004 conference of the Austrian Economic Association (NOeG) for helpful comments. We would like to thank an anonymous referee for many helpful comments that led to a substantial improvement of the paper. The usual disclaimer applies. This research project was supported by a research Grant (Project Nr. 9800) of the Jubiläumsfonds der Österreichische Nationalbank (OeNB).     

How Large Is the Cost of Business Cycles in Developing Countries?

This study measures the cost of business cycles in developing countries. The business‐cycle component of consumption is extracted by employing a detrending filter adjusted for the length of a subject country's business cycles, rather than a standard detrending filter, and the cost of business cycles using the extracted component is extracted. Estimated costs in developing countries based on the adjusted filter are found to be significantly different from those based on the standard filter. Hence, in measuring the costs of business cycles in developing countries, we should be careful about the choice of a detrending filter. The results also indicate the following findings: 1) in developing countries, there is probably more room to improve the cost of non‐business‐cycle fluctuations than that of business‐cycle fluctuations, and 2) the cost of business cycles is not strikingly large, even when it is estimated from a model strongly disfavoring business cycles.     

European Monetary Integration and the ‘Constitutionalization’ of Macroeconomic Policy Making

This work discusses the constitutionalization of rules in macroeconomic policy-making in the European Union (EU) with reference to European monetary integration. The analysis deals with two main monetary arrangements, the European Monetary System (EMS) and the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), and focuses on one country - Italy. Using an interdisciplinary perspective and a constitutional political economy approach, three sets of factors are identified to explain how and why policy-makers may decide to self-limit their sovereignty in monetary and fiscal policies, as they have done in the process of European monetary integration. It is argued that such factors influenced the dynamics and evolution of the European monetary arrangements, shaping the path to EMU.     

“Core” and “Periphery” in a Monetary Union: A Macroeconomic Policy Game

We develop a dynamic game model of a two-country monetary union to study strategic interactions between macroeconomic policy makers, namely the central bank and governments. In this union, the governments of participating countries pursue national goals when deciding on fiscal policies, whereas the common central bank’s monetary policy aims at union-wide objective variables. The union considered is asymmetric, consisting of a core, with lower initial public debt, and a periphery, with higher initial public debt. For a symmetric demand shock, we derive numerical solutions of the dynamic game between the governments and the central bank using the OPTGAME algorithm. We show that mildly active cooperative countercyclical policies dominate noncooperative solutions and a scenario of no policy intervention. Optimal policies call for a brief expansionary action to bolster the effects on output and a return to a small fiscal primary surplus as soon as the crisis is over until the targeted level of public debt is reached.