中国地方政府官员的隐性激励机制——基于职业生涯考虑模型

利用职业生涯考虑模型,分析了中国地方政府官员的激励机制。研究发现,地方政府官员在职业生涯的前期会选择努力工作,树立工作能力强的声誉;而在职业生涯的后期,地方政府官员的能力已经被上级政府了解,晋升无望的地方政府官员没有了工作的动力。领导干部终身制会产生激励不足,而官员的任期制解决了地方政府官员努力不足的问题。     

The Role of Chonsei as a Price Protector in the Korean Housing Market

In this study, we investigate whether ‘Chonsei,’ the distinctive type of housing contract system in Korea, has a favorable impact on house prices during a market downturn. We show the mechanism in which Chonsei prevents a sharp drop in house prices based on sellers’ loss aversion behavior. Moreover, using data on the Seoul condominium (i.e. apartment) market during the 2006–2017 period, we find that Chonsei prices have a negative impact on the housing trade volume in a market recession. This finding is consistent with our argument that loss aversion behavior appears with regard to the rise in Chonsei prices and thereby Chonsei functions as a price protector in the Korean housing market.     

住房金融的初级市场与次级市场

以住房抵押贷款为主体的住房金融初级市场的发展是住房消费的基础,并能促进经济平稳运行。我国的住房金融初级市场起步晚、发展快,存在品种少、数量少的特征,并面临资金短缺、流动性降低、长期信贷管理难度加大等一系列问题。文章认为住房金融次级市场是克服住房金融初级市场存在和面临问题的根本途径。但由于住房次级市场的发展对经济环境与法律环境的要求较高,应采取探索和促进的战略。     

中国股市收益、收益波动与投资者情绪

本文从我国股市的现实情况出发 ,构造理论模型证明 :投资者接受价格信号时表现出来的情绪是影响均衡价格的系统性因子。这一结论得到实际数据的支持 ,实证发现投资者情绪的变化不仅显著地影响沪深两市收益 ,而且显著地反向修正沪深两市收益波动 ,并通过风险奖励影响收益。研究结果表明 ,沪深两市不仅具有相同的投资者行为和风险收益特征 ,而且均未达到弱式有效 ,机构投资者是可能的噪声交易者风险源。     

Housing Market Bubbles and the Currency Crisis: The Case of Thailand

This paper explains with a simple model the collapse of the housing market in Thailand before the 1997 economic crisis. It shows that successive periods of impressive growth of the economy created not only higher demands for housing, but also an increase in people's optimism about market conditions in the future. Both oversupply and bubbles were formed before the market finally crashed. The model explains some of these phenomena, and describes the nature of the bubbles. An ironic possibility is that a faster and more persistent growth of the economy tends to increase the vulnerability of the firms in the market.JEL Classification Numbers: F14, O11, O53.     

住宅市场风险、需求倾向与住宅价格波动-一个理论与实证分析

本文基于一个包含市场风险的住宅需求倾向与住宅价格决定模型,利用CHNS数据,检验了住宅价格风险和风险对冲倾向对需求倾向与住宅价格的影响。本文的主要发现是,住宅价格风险对需求倾向和住宅价格具有负向影响,风险对冲倾向对购房概率和住宅价格具有正向影响;在住宅需求倾向方面,风险对冲倾向对社会地位高的家庭的影响要高于社会地位较低的家庭,但后者的消费行为对住宅价格的影响则更显著。     

Residential Mobility, Housing Equity and the Labour Market

UK commentators have noted that the UK housing market may hinder labour market flexibility. The present paper uses UK household longitudinal data (BHPS) for the early 1990s, and estimates single and competing risk discrete time duration models of residence duration to investigate the impact of negative housing equity on residential moves. Strong evidence for an adverse impact on mobility is found, along with results to suggest that the home-owners do not move in response to changing labour market conditions. Negative equity in the early 1990s therefore exacerbated housing market related rigidities in the job matching process     

Housing Market Fluctuations and the Implicit Price of Water Quality: Empirical Evidence from a South Florida Housing Market

In this study we utilize a hedonic property price analysis to examine changes in the implicit price of water quality given housing market fluctuations over time. We analyze Martin County, Florida waterfront home sales from 2001 to 2010 accounting for the associated significant real estate fluctuations in this area through flexible econometric controls in space and time. We apply a segmented regression methodology to identify housing market price instability over time, interact water quality with these identified market segmentations, and embed these interactions within a spatial fixed effect model to further account for any spatial heterogeneity in the waterfront market. Results indicate that water quality improvement is associated with higher property values. We find no evidence that the economic downturn crowded out concern for the water quality in this area. We further impute an implicit prices of $2614, evaluated at the sample mean, for 1 % point increase in the water quality grade.     

中国人口、家庭户与住房需求预测研究

我国未来住房需求的变化将受到人口、家庭户数量和结构变动的影响。在人口预测的基础上,采用扩展的户主率家庭预测模型,假定分家庭规模、户主年龄、性别的户主率不变或变化的情况下,预测未来家庭户的数量、结构情况。在此基础上,结合2000年普查得到的不同家庭户类型住房情况的信息,对未来30年我国城乡居民住房面积和间数的需求进行了预测。由于人口和家庭户的增长,我国居民住房面积和间数的需求在未来三十年将持续增长;由于家庭户数量增长速度超过人口数量增长的速度,按家庭户变化预测的未来居民住房的需求较大;由于人口和家庭户结构的变化,未来三十年的住房需求在不同时期的情况有所不同,年均新增住房需求的增长在2015年前虽波动起伏,但变化不大; 2015年之后,年均新增住房需求将逐步下降。     

Role Playing,Collective Bargaining,and the Measurement of Attitude Change

Using what scholars have identified as the major explanations of industrial unrest in the United States, Lloyd measures changes in attitudes of students engaged in mock collective bargaining negotiations. By testing before and after the bargaining sessions, he is able to show the influence of role playing upon perception.     

市场失灵、政府失灵与住房保障

住房市场作为一种特殊的市场,存在着三种不同形式的市场失灵,需要政府干预加以弥补。但同时出现的政府失灵则要求我们不能完全依靠政府去矫正所有的市场缺陷。因此,政府应该从促进市场效率和增进社会公平的角度来介入住房市场,以提供住房保障为核心来定位政府在住房市场中的职能,以市场失灵为起点,以政府失灵为警戒线来确定住房保障的边界。     

The Role of the Media in Sustaining Ireland's Housing Bubble

This paper examines Irish mainstream media coverage of the housing bubble that burst in 2007 and plunged Ireland into economic and financial crisis. It is shown that news organisations largely sustained the bubble until the property market collapsed. As such, news stories reflected the views and interests of the Irish corporate and governmental sectors, which had adopted neoliberal policies during the ‘Celtic Tiger’ years (1990s to 2007). A political economic conceptualisation of the Irish media outlines four factors explaining why this is so: (1) news organisations have multiple links with the political and corporate establishment, of which they are part, thus sharing similar interests and viewpoints; (2) just like elite circles, they hold a neoliberal ideology, dominant during the boom years; (3) they feel pressures from advertisers, in particular, real estate companies; and (4) they rely heavily on ‘experts’ from elite institutions in reporting events. The last section presents a detailed empirical analysis of Irish media coverage (newspapers and television) of the housing bubble that confirms the above claims. It is shown that prior to the bubble's collapse, the media made little mention of it, remained vague about it or tried to refute claims that it even existed, thus sustaining it.     

中国地方政府间竞争下的区域市场整合

与传统文献的视角不同,本文从发达地区的角度出发,在地方政府间竞争的框架下分析了区域市场整合的成本与收益。文章认为,地区收入差距是阻碍市场整合的决定性力量,正外部溢出效应是推进市场整合的决定性力量,而中央政府对地方官员的考核机制则会对这种力量的对比和权衡产生重要的影响。中央政府可以通过采用不同的政绩考核方法或在相同的政绩考核方法下采取不同的措施来提高市场整合的程度进而促进全国统一大市场的形成。     

Equilibrium Effects of Superstition in the Housing Market

We investigate the interaction of product quality differentiation and consumer preference heterogeneity in durable goods markets, focusing on the effects of secondary market liquidity and consumer heterogeneity on equilibrium prices. We build an infinite‐horizon dynamic model of the apartments housing market that captures the above features. Some apartments are considered lucky, and some consumers are superstitious. Lucky apartments are valued more highly than non‐lucky ones only by superstitious consumers. Results show that the difference between the lucky apartment price and the non‐lucky apartment price becomes smaller when the secondary market becomes less liquid and when consumers’ preference heterogeneity becomes more persistent as opposed to time‐varying.     

资源基础观的微观基础探寻:领导者对组织资源获取的影响

对资源基础观、资源依赖理论、企业家精神、动态能力等理论进行整合,将组织资源获取过程划分为资源识别、资源外部获取、资源内部积累3个阶段,并提出了8种领导者影响组织资源获取的途径,可为研究资源基础观的微观基础提供一个系统分析视角,为领导有效性研究提供启示。