The long-run effects of the real exchange rate on employment and wages in Canadian manufacturing

ABSTRACT

The literature on real exchange rate effects on the labour market is dominated by short-run analysis showing that there is heterogeneity in the responses of firms or industries to a real exchange rate shock. Analysing data on Canadian manufacturing industries, I conclude that there is a common long-run equilibrium across all manufacturing industries controlling for their openness to trade after varying adjustments to a real exchange rate shock have taken place. This conclusion is important from the perspective of policy making because it helps to form expectations about the effects of a real exchange rate movement on the labour market. The results suggest that real appreciation leads to economically significant reductions in employment in manufacturing in the long run. Real wages decrease in industries that are highly engaged in international trade and somewhat increase in industries that are relatively closed to international trade. Both employment and real wages converge quickly to the long-run equilibrium.     

PERSISTENT EFFECTS OF TRANSITORY EXCHANGE RATE SHOCKS ON FIRM DYNAMICS

Recent evidence demonstrates that exchange rate movements can affect firm survival and entry. However, there is little evidence on whether there are asymmetric effects of an appreciation versus depreciation. This article uses firm‐level data over a period of a large currency appreciation followed by a large depreciation to examine possible asymmetries in firm survival and entry resulting in the endurance of exchange rate effects. We find that when real currency appreciations precede depreciations, appreciations reduce firm entry rates to a greater degree than depreciations increase that rate; but appreciations reduce the probability of firm survival at a magnitude not significantly different from the increase in probability that results from a depreciation. Taken together, we find that a 10% reciprocal episode of exchange rate appreciation and depreciation will result in 1,647 (5.2%) fewer firms compared with a regime with no change in the exchange rate. These results are consistent with exchange rate hysteresis whereby a transitory exchange rate shock has a permanent effect. (JEL F1)     

Firm survival, performance, and the exchange rate

Abstract .  This paper examines the impact of exchange rate movements on firm survival and sales. We exploit detailed Canadian firm-level data from 1986 to 1997, a period in which the Canadian dollar appreciated approximately 30% in the first six years and depreciated 30% in the later six years. We find that survival and sales are negatively associated with appreciations in the Canadian dollar. The impact on survival is less pronounced for more productive firms. The magnitude of the impact of exchange rate changes on firm survival and sales was comparable to the effect of CUSFTA-mandated tariff changes.     

Exchange rate fluctuations and labour market adjustments in Canadian manufacturing industries

We estimate the link between exchange rate fluctuations and the labour input of Canadian manufacturing industries. The analysis is based on a dynamic model of labour demand and the econometric strategy employs a panel two‐step approach for cointegrating regressions. Our data are drawn from a panel of 20 manufacturing industries from the KLEMS database and cover a long sample period that includes all cycles of appreciation and depreciation of the Canadian dollar over the last 50 years. Our results indicate that exchange rate fluctuations have significant long‐term effects on the labour input of Canada's manufacturing industries, especially for trade‐oriented industries, but that these long‐term impacts materialize very gradually following shocks.     

Sources of Exchange Rate Movements in Japan: Is the Exchange Rate a Shock‐Absorber or a Source of Shock?

This paper investigates the sources of movements of the yen–dollar exchange rate using a structural vector autoregression (VAR) with a combination of short‐run and long‐run zero restrictions. We find that real shocks dominate nominal shocks in explaining the exchange rate movements, with relative real demand shocks as the major contributor. The exchange rate market does not seem to be a major source of disturbances to the Japanese economy. The overall results support the view that the bilateral dollar exchange rate in Japan is a shock‐absorber rather than a source of shocks.     

Can Production Subsidies Explain China's Export Performance? Evidence from Firm‐level Data*

This paper analyses the relationship between production subsidies and firms’ export performance using a very comprehensive and recent firm‐level database and controlling for the endogeneity of subsidies. It documents robust evidence that production subsidies stimulate export activity at the intensive margin, although this effect is conditional on firm characteristics. In particular, the positive relationship between subsidies and the intensive margin of exports is strongest among profit‐making firms, firms in capital‐intensive industries, and those located in non‐coastal regions. Compared to firm characteristics, the extent of heterogeneity across ownership structure (SOEs, collectives, and privately owned firms) proves to be relatively less important.     

Currency Unions,Export Margins,and Product Differentiation: An Empirical Assessment for European Monetary Union

This paper reconsiders the trade effects of the euro, providing a decomposition into its effects on the extensive margin and intensive margin. Furthermore, it relates the more disaggregated estimates for 93 two‐digit HS product groups to the elasticity of substitution, thereby testing a key hypothesis of heterogenous firm trade theory. The estimates for the period 1996–2011 suggest a trade effect of the euro of some 28%, which has mainly materialized through the intensive margin. A negative net effect of the euro on the extensive margin is found for several product groups, supporting anecdotal evidence that firms have consolidated their product varieties in response to the elimination of exchange rate variability. Finally, the disaggregated estimates are in line with heterogenous firm trade theory models, suggesting that a large elasticity of substitution dampens the effect of a trade cost reduction on the extensive margin and amplifies its effect on the intensive margin.     

Exchange Rate Exposure of Chinese Firms at the Industry and Firm Level

This study investigates the exchange rate exposure of Chinese firms at the industry and firm level based on the conventional capital asset pricing model (CAPM) framework. At the industry level, the dynamic conditional correlation MGARCH (DCC MGARCH) estimates demonstrate that the market model and three‐factor model are appropriate for exposure measurements, and industry returns are more likely to be exposed to unanticipated changes in the real exchange rate and the trade‐weighted effective exchange rate, particularly for manufacturing industries. At the firm level, although the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) estimates vary across markets, it is apparent that there is a relationship between firm size and exposure effects, which also show that lagged exchange rate changes have significant exposure effects on firm returns. This study finally suggests that non‐financial firms should set up special commissions to hedge currency risks of their future cash flows.     

Export Market Dynamics and Plant‐Level Productivity: Impact of Tariff Reductions and Exchange‐Rate Cycles*

In this paper, we examine how changes in tariff rates and industry‐specific real exchange rates affect the entry/exit process to export markets and productivity growth. Using the experience of the Canadian manufacturing sector over three decades, we find that firms in export markets enjoy faster productivity growth than non‐participants. The size of the growth advantage depends on whether real exchange rates are increasing or decreasing. The increase in the value of the Canadian dollar during the post‐2000 period almost completely offset the productivity growth advantages enjoyed by new exporters during this period.     

Cross‐border mergers and acquisitions: does the exchange rate matter? Some evidence for Canada

Abstract.  Theoretical and empirical studies investigating the relationship between the exchange rate and FDI have generated mixed results. Using bilateral Canadian-U.S. industry level count data on cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and conditioning on industry tariff rates, value added share of industries, industry M&A trend activity, and the number of establishments, we find evidence that a real dollar depreciation of the home currency leads to an increase in the probability of foreign M&As but only in high R&D industries. These empirical results are consistent with Blonigen's asset acquisition hypothesis. Results on European M&As of Canadian firms also lean towards this result.     

Real exchange rates and job flows: evidence from Turkey

This study investigates the effects of the real exchange rate on job flows in Turkish manufacturing industries between 2006 and 2015 using data at the four-digit NACE Revision 2 level. Using dynamic panel data models, we find that a real appreciation increases gross and net job creation rates, and that the effect of appreciation is magnified as the exposure to international competitiveness of industries increases. We think that this is because Turkish manufacturing firms import a greater share of their inputs compared to the firms in developed countries. Hence, an appreciation creates more jobs because lower imported input costs enable firms to outcompete foreign producers.     

市场结构与实际汇率——理论模型和对人民币／美元实际汇率的经验分析

文章在一个存在垄断竞争的两国动态一般均衡模型中分析市场结构变化对实际汇率长期趋势的影响,结论认为,本国可贸易品和不可贸易品市场垄断程度上升会导致本币实际升值,而外国可贸易品和不可贸易品市场垄断程度上升会导致本币实际贬值。对人民币/美元实际汇率和中美两国市场垄断程度关系的实证分析基本验证了模型的结论。文章建议,可以通过拆分重组、发展民营企业、引进外资企业等方式引入竞争、降低垄断程度,从而缓解部分人民币升值压力。     

The Rise of China and Its Implications for the Global Economy: Evidence from a Global Vector Autoregressive Model

This paper studies empirically the role of China in the world economy. We examine both the way the Chinese economy reacts to exchange rate shocks and the repercussions for the world economy of an output shock emanating from China. Based on a global vector autoregressive model and a new data set that excels in country coverage and covers the most recent time period including the global financial crisis, our results are threefold: First, we show that a +1% shock to Chinese output translates to a permanent increase of 1.1% in Chinese real GDP and a 0.1% to 0.5% rise in output for most large economies. Second, to benchmark the shock to Chinese output, we examine the response to a +1% shock to US GDP. The results show that the US economy remains dominant in the world economy, as output rises in other advanced economies by 0.6 to 1%. By contrast, China seems to be little affected by the US shock. Finally, we are the first to assess the impact of a real appreciation of the renminbi versus the US dollar in a global model. Our results indicate that real appreciation of the renminbi decreases the level of Chinese GDP slightly and the long‐run effect is also negative for many countries exporting (e.g. raw materials) to China.     

Long-term trend and short-run dynamics of the Canadian dollar: an error correction modelling approach

Using quarterly data for 1972–2000, the paper examines the long-term and short-term movements of the US-Canadian exchange rate. It is found that the standard purchasing power parity condition fails to explain movements of the Canadian dollar. The explanatory power of the model increases significantly when resource commodity prices are added to the equation. Short-term movements in the Canadian dollar are influenced by the interest rate differential between Canada and the USA.     

Exchange rate exposure: Evidence from China

This paper examines exchange rate exposure using a sample of Chinese firms. To measure RMB exchange rate volatility and jump risk, we apply the autoregressive conditional jump intensity (ARJI) model to the industry‐specific nominal effective exchange rate (I‐NEER) for 13 Chinese manufacturing industries over the period 2001 to 2017, We find that exchange rate risks do affect firm value at the industry level, and the effect is more significant for the jump risks that are more difficult to hedge and in the sample period when hedge activities are less likely to occur. Our results suggest that the exposure puzzle could be a result of the endogeneity of operative and financial hedging. Firm‐level analysis finds that exchange rate risk affects firm value for more than 20% of Chinese firms, and a firm's exchange rate exposure varies with the firm's characteristics.     

通货膨胀、汇率波动与货币政策——基于符号约束的贝叶斯VAR模型实证研究

通过构建通货膨胀形成的理论模型,本文运用符号约束的贝叶斯VAR方法探讨通货膨胀和汇率波动对产出增长的影响。结果发现：实际利率对通货膨胀和人民币升值冲击均有较大的响应,且受通货膨胀的影响更大,即稳定价格的货币政策比稳定汇率的政策更加有效;通货膨胀冲击下,实际利率在长期有所上升,但并未达到控制通货膨胀的效果,实际利率偏低阻碍了货币政策效果的发挥;人民币升值对产出增长具有较大的负面影响,对通货膨胀具有负向）中击,但由于油价上涨的原因,人民币升值并没有降低通货膨胀水平。     

汇率制度与宏观经济政策环境——以加拿大为例

加拿大属于典型的资源性经济,加元的汇率变化多受国际商品和石油价格的影响,超出了国内货币政策的控制范围,是独立浮动或是固定汇率？经过两次试验后,加拿大政府坚定地选择了独立浮动汇率制度,并最终实现了汇率政策与货币政策脱离,以此给予了加拿大银行较大的决策空间,使后者专注于维持较低的通货膨胀环境。同时,加拿大政府努力为汇率制度创造有利的宏观经济政策环境,财政政策和货币政策分工明确、相互支持,为汇率制度和经济增长奠定了可持续的坚实基础。本文以加拿大浮动汇率制度为主线,从财政政策、货币政策、政策搭配角度讨论其宏观经济政策框架,分析加元汇率制度的运行环境。在此基础上,本文探讨加拿大汇率政策及浮动汇率制度的作用与功能。本文第五部分对加拿大银行提出的汇率预测模型作出了较深入的分析。     

The Canadian border and the US dollar: The impact of exchange rate changes on US retailers

This paper provides a micro‐level investigation into the impact of changes in the US–Canada nominal exchange rate on retailers in US regions lying close to the US–Canada border. Using a large data set on product‐level retail prices and sales in the United States over a nine year period, we explore the links between changes in exchange rates, cross‐border travel and the price and quantity responses of US retailers. This allows us to assess the importance of geography and distance in affecting the pass‐through of exchange rate changes into prices and quantities at the level of the consumer. We develop a two‐stage theoretical model of cross‐border travel and industry equilibrium for retail sales at the border. Our empirical results accord well with the implications of the model.     

Output stabilization in fixed and floating regimes: Does trade of new products matter?

This paper studies the dynamics of output and export margins in the aftermath of global shocks in fixed and floating exchange rate regimes. Using a panel vector autoregressive model with exogenous factors, it traces the mean responses of output, terms of trade, extensive and intensive margins to real and nominal shocks in 22 developed economies over the period 1988–2011. We find remarkable differences in the transmission of shocks across exchange rate regimes. Adjustment takes place mainly at the extensive margin in fixed regimes, and implies a crowding out of intensive margins that is not present among floaters. Large movements at the extensive margin are associated with a weaker performance in terms of output stabilization. Our findings are robust to alternative sample selections and identification of the shocks. The evidence in the paper stresses a novel advantage of flexible exchange rates based on their ability to smooth the fluctuations in trade of new products.     

Risk preferences estimation of exporting firms under exchange rate uncertainty

This note empirically analyses how exchange rate fluctuations affects firms’ optimal production and exporting decisions. A firm’s elasticity of risk aversion determines the direction of the impact of exchange rate risk on exports. Based on a flexible utility function that incorporates all possible risk preferences, a unique structurally estimable equation is derived. Quantile regression method is used to estimate this equation and compute the risk aversion elasticities for a panel of Indian firms. This approach allows us to demonstrate how characteristics of exporters at the intensive margin varies with the level of elasticities across the conditional exchange rate distribution.