Export and import composition as determinants of bilateral trade in goods: evidence from Russia

Conventional theory and several empirical studies state that incomes and exchange rates are the key determinants of the trade balance. Here, we argue that export and import composition are also key explanatory variables because some goods are inelastic and/or with a high added value, directly and indirectly affecting income and price elasticities and trade balance. Thus, if exports and/or imports significantly consist of price inelastic products, then, a positive and a negative effect, respectively, should be expected on the trade balance. Using bilateral trade data and dynamic panel models, we found that the ratio of exports of crude petroleum and natural gas (price inelastic goods) to total exports is significantly and positively associated with the Russian trade balance in goods. For its part, Russian imports of high-tech goods (income elastic and price inelastic with a high added value) show a negative association. The goods balance of Russia also responded to changes in relative income, but there is only weak evidence of reactions to changes in the exchange rate. These findings partially explain the persistent surplus in the Russian trade balance and current account.     

贸易自由化与增加值贸易*——WTO对中国出口的真实影响

国际贸易的中间品贸易的兴起,使传统关境贸易统计无法准确衡量全球价值链下一国的实际贸易利得。本文基于增加值贸易视角重新评估加入WTO对于中国出口的真实影响,以及关境统计下WTO贸易促进作用与真实状况的偏离。基于引力模型的实证结果表明：（1）总体上,中国加入WTO显著促进其增加值出口,但关境统计明显高估了WTO贸易促进作用。（2）分行业看,WTO对中国增加值出口的贸易促进作用存在显著的行业差异：加入WTO显著地促进了中国非制造业工业、制造业和服务业增加值出口,却抑制了中国农林牧渔业的增加值出口。（3）进一步研究发现,关境统计数据对于WTO贸易促进作用的高估问题仅存在于制造业,对于农林牧渔业等其他三个行业反而存在低估问题。     

加工贸易的本土增值 对人民币升值影响的放大效应

本文基于2001-2010年中国11个制造业的季度进出口贸易数据,利用面板DOLS方法,分析了人民币升值联合出口品本土增值对一般贸易与加工贸易的影响。研究结果表明,随着中国出口品本土增值度的提升,原本缺乏汇率弹性的加工贸易出口将变得敏感,而加工贸易进口由于与出口存在着“一对一”的关系,因而汇率弹性也表现出显著为负。加工贸易的本土增值将放大人民币有效升值对减少中国贸易顺差的作用,因此,加快国内技术进步,生产更加复杂的中间品,将适当缓解人民币“被迫”持续快速升值的压力。     

The new goods margin in new markets

We analyze the role of the new goods margin in the Baltic countries’ exports and imports growth during the 1995–2008 period. Using the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013), we define the set of least-traded goods as those that account for the lowest 10% of total exports and imports in 1995, and then trace its growth in several markets including the Baltics’ main trade partners, the European Union and Russia. We find that, on average, by 2008 least-traded goods accounted for nearly 50% of total Baltic exports to their main trade partners. Moreover, we find that increases in the share of least-traded exports coincided with the timing of the trade liberalization reforms implemented by the Baltic countries. Least-traded imports also grew at robust rates, but their growth was lower than that of exports, accounting for slightly less than a quarter of total imports, that is, about half of the exports value. Moreover, we find that the shares of least-traded imports from the EU 15 and from Russia started diverging around the time the Baltic countries joined the EU, with the EU 15 share increasing and the Russian one declining. We also find that the Baltics’ share of least-traded exports outpaced that of other economies in Central and Eastern Europe. Finally, exports of new goods from the Baltic countries suffered noticeably during the Global Financial Crisis. After the crisis ended, the restart in new goods exports growth displayed mixed patterns.     

Exchange rate and foreign GDP elasticities of Swiss exports across sectors and destination countries

This article uses a detailed breakdown of Swiss trade flows to identify how the impact of the two main determinants of Switzerland’s exports – foreign demand and the real exchange rate – varies across sectors and export destinations. Our main findings are that (i) both foreign demand and exchange rate elasticities vary substantially across both export sectors and export destinations. (ii) Foreign demand trends are more important for structural considerations than the exchange rate. This is due to the fact that exports of the two largest export sectors are relatively sensitive to long-run foreign demand developments while they are relatively insensitive to changes in the exchange rate. (iii) The sectoral structure of Switzerland’s exports has shifted towards goods that have a lower short-run demand elasticity and a higher long-run demand elasticity. Goods exports are thus less influenced by business cycle fluctuations while they benefit more from long-term growth trends. (iv) The export share of sectors with a relatively low exchange rate elasticity has increased. However, this result is mainly driven by the strong rise in exports of chemicals and pharmaceuticals as well as precision instruments and watches, which are also the two important sectors responsible for the Swiss trade surplus.     

Estimating domestic content in exports when processing trade is pervasive

For many questions, it is crucial to know the extent of domestic value added (DVA) in a country's exports, but the computation is more complicated when processing trade is pervasive. We propose a method for computing domestic and foreign contents that allows for processing trade. By applying our framework to Chinese data, we estimate that the share of domestic content in its manufactured exports was about 50% before China's WTO membership, and has risen to nearly 60% since then. There are also interesting variations across sectors. Those sectors that are likely labeled as relatively sophisticated such as electronic devices have particularly low domestic content (about 30% or less).     

Taiwan's exports and trade imbalance against US and Japan: an empirical investigation based on error correction model

This study employs recent advances in time-series analysis, cointegration and error correction model, to examine the long-run and short-run determinants of the exports and trade imbalance between the USA, Japan, and Taiwan. The unit root tests reveal nonstationary in most of the variables. The cointegration tests affirm positive the long-run associations are between the exchange rate changes and the exports as well as the trade imbalance. Once these long-run effects are accounted for, it is found that there are evidences of short-run relationship between these variables.     

Kosovo – EU trade relations: a dynamic panel poisson approach

To inform policymaking following trade liberalization between Kosovo and the EU within the framework of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA), we specify a gravity model to investigate Kosovo’s trade in goods with 28 EU countries over the period 2005–2013. We reconcile competing methodological requirements by using a dynamic Poisson approach to estimation. Together, persistent trade patterns and an unfavourable combination of demand and supply elasticities suggest that trade liberalization in isolation is not sufficient to promote exports but may need to be incorporated within a wider policy and institutional framework. In addition, our findings suggest that trade costs should be a particular focus for policy: distance has a big negative influence on Kosovo’s exports to EU countries; while diaspora communities promote Kosovo’s exports to EU markets, most likely because they offset trade costs.     

扩大内需、工资上涨与对外出口 ——来自中国228个城市的面板数据

本文利用2000—2011年我国228个城市的面板数据，考察扩大内需、工资上涨对我国出口贸易产生的影响。研究表明：内需的提高和工资的上涨不仅不会抑制出口，还能促进出口贸易的扩张，数据显示：内需提高1%会促进出口量扩张约0263%，这意味着在目前阶段，我国对外贸易中国内消费需求因素发挥了核心作用；同时工资上涨1%，促进出口增加0174%,这说明工资上涨有助于提高劳动生产率，进而促进出口贸易。在分区域的研究中发现，扩大内需以及工资上涨对东、中、西部地区的出口贸易均能产生正向的促进作用，但是这一作用存在明显的地区差异性,对中部地区的作用最强。同时吸收外商直接投资以及减少政府干预对出口有正向激励作用。     

Supply‐chain trade and labor market outcomes: The case of the 2004 European Union enlargement

The structure of international trade is increasingly characterized by fragmentation of production processes and trade policy. Yet, how trade policy affects supply‐chain trade is largely unexplored territory. This paper shows how the accession of 10 Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) to the European Union affected European supply‐chain trade. We find that accession primarily fostered CEECs’ integration in global value chains of other entrants. Smaller integration benefits stem for East–West trade in services for lower‐skill activities. These increases in value‐added exports translate into sizeable job creation.     

Fiscal devaluation and economic activity in the EU

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, a fiscal devaluation (hereafter, FD), understood as a shift in taxation from labour to consumption, has been debated as a possible tool for restoring competitiveness, particularly in peripheral countries of the Eurozone. We contribute to this debate. Based on a set of panel and spatial panel models for the EU 27 over the period 1995–2014, we find that FD works, especially where economic activity is heavily subdued and in sectors more exposed on external competition. FD increases value added in exports, improves net exports, accelerates GDP and employment growth, and decelerates growth in labour costs. These effects are nonlinear; they are stronger in the members of the Eurozone and weaker in countries with either more coordinated or more centralised wage bargaining processes or more generous unemployment benefits. The magnitude of these effects is dampened by strict regulatory barriers: they are weaker in countries with higher barriers to entrepreneurship, trade and investment. Most importantly, FD is not a beggar thy neighbour policy, at least in the EU. In our sample, the aggregate demand (‘cooperative’) effect of unilateral FD, which is beneficial for neighbouring countries, outweighs by far the expenditure switching (‘competitive’) effect, which comes at the expense of other countries’ competitiveness. FD implemented in one country can benefit other countries, provided that they are strongly integrated in global value chains. These findings are robust to changes in the estimation methods, the sample composition, the set of explanatory variables and the selection of a spatial weight matrix.     

The trade effects of Albania’s trade agreements with CEFTA members

Since the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) was signed in 2006, Albanian exports to CEFTA member countries have increased four-fold. Applying a trade growth decomposition methodology, we show that Albanian firms that did not export to CEFTA countries before the agreement account for a large share of this export growth. Exports also increased among goods that were the least traded before the agreement. Estimating a gravity equation, we find that the CEFTA increased Albanian exports between 34% and 144%, depending on how the previous bilateral agreements with CEFTA countries are accounted for. Additional regression analyses conclude that the CEFTA fostered exports through the reduction of tariffs.     

挤压还是促进?——内需对制造业出口的影响研究

文章结合新古典和新贸易理论研究范式,考察了国内需求对制成品出口的影响。研究发现,制造业中大部分产业的国内需求对出口有显著的正影响,但对于不同行业来说,出口的影响因素有很大差异,超过半数的产业内需对出口的影响已经超过劳动力禀赋的影响,并且贸易自由化会放大内需对出口的影响。我国未来出口将以产业内贸易为主,要更有针对性地采取政策措施以使扩大内需与稳定出口相辅相成,这样才能更大程度地获取贸易收益。     

Comparative Advantage and the Pattern of Trade Within Industries

This paper investigates empirically one aspect of the vertically differentiated models of intraindustry trade. These models predict that the pattern of trade within an industry is based on comparative advantage rather than being completely random. An empirical model is specified in which the relative quality of two countries' bilateral exports within an industry depends on the relative differences in unit labor requirements. Using a variety of econometric methods, the results suggest that the quality of US manufacturing exports to the UK, Japan, and Germany relative to its imports from these countries is positively and significantly related to the relative differences in value added per worker.     

GLOBALIZATION,TRADE, AND WAGES: WHAT DOES HISTORY TELL US ABOUT CHINA?

Newly assembled data show that, as China opened up to global trade during the early 20th century, its exports became more unskilled‐intensive and its imports more skill‐intensive. Difference‐in‐differences estimates show that World War I dramatically increased Chinese exports, raising the relative demand for the unskilled workers producing them. When the war ended, trade costs declined and China's terms of trade increased, further stimulating exports. A simulation of a dynamic general equilibrium model demonstrates that the effects of the war on China's terms of trade produces a decline in the skill premium similar to what China experienced in the 1920s.     

Economic determinants of Soviet foreign trade with Eastern Europe

Using a cross-sectionally correlated and time-wise autoregressive pooling procedure, we have obtained long-run estimates of export and import elasticities of Soviet-East European bilateral trade with respect to supply, demand and trade resistance factors. Our results indicate that Soviet exports to East Europe during 1963–1973 was, for most product groups, determined by demand conditions found in the East European partner countries while Soviet imports from Eastern Europe, for the same period, was for most product groups determined by East European supplies.     

Does the distinction between gross and value‐added exports matter? An empirical investigation of export elasticities

This study uses bilateral U.S. export data from the OECD’s Trade in Value‐Added database to estimate and compare elasticities for three distinct export measures: conventional measures of gross exports, domestic value added in gross exports, and value‐added exports. It finds little evidence of significant differences in the income elasticities across the three export measures or in the price elasticities of gross exports and domestic value added in gross exports. However it finds a significantly higher price elasticity for value‐added exports, suggesting that conventional price elasticity estimates may underestimate the impact of a real dollar depreciation on U.S. exports of value added.     

Antidumping under International Fragmentation: Evidence from China

Applying a negative binomial regression model, this paper investigates how Chinese exports have reshaped the global value chain and the use of antidumping. We use trade in value‐added statistics to distinguish between Chinese exports of intermediate and final products to its main trading partners, including the USA, Mexico, South Korea, the UK, Germany, France and Italy, among others, and find that other countries welcome China as an intermediate producer, although not necessarily as a final good producer. We also find that a higher level of fragmentation reduces the likelihood of antidumping initiation and measures.     

Exchange‐rate Effects on China's Trade*

Though China's share of world trade exceeds that of Japan, little is known about the response of China's trade to changes in exchange rates. The few estimates available have two limitations. First, the data for trade prices are based on proxies for prices from other countries. Secondly, the estimation sample includes the period of China's transformation from a centrally‐planned economy to a more market‐oriented one. We address these limitations with an empirical model explaining the shares of China's exports and imports in world trade in terms of the real effective value of the renminbi. The specifications control for foreign direct investment and for the role of imports of parts to assemble exports. Parameter estimation uses disaggregated monthly trade data and excludes China's decentralization period. We find that a 10 percent real appreciation of the renminbi lowers the share of aggregate Chinese exports by nearly one percentage point. However, the estimated response of imports is negligible and lacks precision.     

Distance,skill deepening and development: will peripheral countries ever get rich?

This paper models the relationship between countries' distance from global economic activity, endogenous investments in education and economic development. Firms in remote locations pay greater trade costs on both exports and intermediate imports, reducing the amount of value added left to remunerate domestic factors of production. If skill-intensive sectors have higher trade costs, more pervasive input–output linkages or stronger increasing returns to scale, we show theoretically that remoteness depresses the skill premium and therefore incentives for human capital accumulation. Empirically, we exploit structural relationships from the model to demonstrate that countries with lower market access have lower levels of educational attainment. We also show that the world's most peripheral countries are becoming increasingly economically remote over time.