在岸与离岸市场人民币利率联动性分析

本文通过采用Granger因果检验和AM（1）-GARCH（1,1）模型分析了上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）与香港人民币同业拆借利率（CNY Hibor）之间的联动性。结论表明：30天Shibor和CNY Hibor互为Granger因果关系,隔夜、7天和14天Shibor是CNY Hibor的Granger原因;在岸对离岸市场人民币利率的影响强于离岸对在岸市场人民币利率的影响。     

在岸人民币市场与香港离岸人民币市场联动关系的实证研究

作为国际金融中心,香港为内地的发展提供了举足轻重的金融服务。近年来,我国政府力推人民币国际化,具有完备金融市场的香港成为构建离岸人民币中心、促进人民币国际化进程的排头兵。香港已经建成了规模庞大的离岸人民币市场,这一市场的波动和走势对在岸人民币市场的干扰和影响不可轻视,关乎在岸人民币市场的稳定和国家金融安全。文章分析了在岸人民币市场即期汇率、远期汇率与香港离岸人民币市场即期汇率、远期汇率之间的关系,发现两两之间并不总是存在引导关系。     

中国在岸与离岸人民币利率联动效应探究

本文根据中间价报价机制改革前后的数据,对人民币即期CNY市场和香港离岸人民币CNH市场之间相互存在的联动性效应进行了实证分析。结果发现:在改革之前主要是在岸市场对离岸市场实现价格的信息传导,在岸汇率引导着离岸汇率;改革之后则发现CN Y、CN H两者的汇率存在着高度相关性,两者的短期汇率互相产生了信息的双向传递性,人民币汇率的价格发现机制不断得到改善。     

外汇市场的关联性——基于人民币在岸和离岸即期与NDF远期的实证研究

人民币市场关系的研究中常有分析方法相同但结果迥异的情况。原因有二:一是市场的选取;二是数据的时间段。本文确定了人民币在岸即期和离岸即期与境外NDF的逻辑关系以及数据选取的时间段。以此为基础对NDF不同期限和香港离岸即期以及在岸即期进行格兰杰分析。分析结果显示:离岸NDF引导香港离岸即期以及在岸即期。     

离岸和在岸人民币市场联动发展问题研究

随着金融高水平对外开放的不断深化和离岸人民币市场的稳步推进,离岸与在岸人民币市场之间的联动发展也逐渐加强。本文立足于我国2012年5月至2022年11月的利率与汇率价格数据,从离岸与在岸人民币市场利率、汇率联动发展视角分析利率、汇率之间的均值与波动溢出效应。通过脉冲响应、方差分解对利率联动关系,以及Granger因果检验、VAR模型和DCC-MVGARCH模型对汇率联动关系进行实证分析。综合实证分析结果,本文为我国离岸与在岸人民币市场的联动发展提出具有针对性的建议。     

人民币离岸和在岸市场的联动渠道

<正>人民币国际化的发展促进了人民币在离岸市场的使用,现阶段我国资本账户开放仍在进程当中,人民币跨境资金流动还受到一些限制,因此人民币汇率和利率水平在离岸和在岸市场都存在差异,差异的存在主要由人民币跨境流动的难易程度决定,而且差异水平随着市场环境和政策变化而波动。人民币离岸和在岸市场通过多种渠道产生联系并相互影响,人民币资金通过这些渠道实现跨境流动,调剂离岸和在岸市场资金池,影响离岸和在岸市场汇率、利率水平。外汇交易渠道外汇交易渠     

人民币国际化:基于在岸与离岸的两种视角

本文首先分析了中国政府在全球金融危机后加速推动人民币国际化的动因。其次,本文从内地推进人民币跨境贸易结算(在岸)与香港人民币市场发展(离岸)这两种视角分析了迄今为止人民币国际化的进展,指出了其背后的动力机制以及蕴藏的潜在风险。最后,本文为中国政府如何审慎渐进地推进人民币国际化提出了一系列政策建议。     

人民币国际化进程中在岸离岸套利现象研究

无论是2009年下半年至2011年上半年人民币国际化取得的快速进展,还是2011年下半年人民币国际化进程陷入的停滞,均与香港离岸市场与内地在岸市场之间的套汇与套利活动密切相关。两个市场之间的套汇活动包括利用两地的人民币现汇差价进行套汇以及利用持续的人民币升值或贬值预期进行套汇;两个市场之间的套利活动包括基于人民币信用证的内保外贷以及内地企业在香港发行人民币债券。本文剖析了上述套汇套利活动的市场背景、具体机制、相应结果及有关证据。基于上述分析,本文认为,在政策优先次序上,国内经济结构性调整应优于人民币国际化;利率与汇率市场化改革以及国内金融市场深化应优于资本账户开放。     

人民币在岸与离岸市场汇率极端风险溢出研究

本文采用联合非对称MVMQ-CAViaR模型,对离岸人民币和在岸人民币市场间的极端风险溢出效应进行研究。结果表明:人民币离岸和在岸市场的极端风险存在显著的溢出效应,但溢出水平有限,且离岸人民币对在岸人民币的溢出更加明显;利空消息冲击比利好消息冲击引起的人民币外汇市场下挫力度更强,联合冲击会加剧市场波动;"8.11汇改"提高了两个市场极端风险的溢出水平,且汇改之后,两个市场人民币的上行风险和下行风险都明显增加。因此,货币当局要加快人民币汇率的市场化进程,提高在岸人民币对离岸人民币的影响力,同时应特别警惕离岸与在岸人民币的联合效应,防范人民币的断崖式贬值。     

Art as an investment: risk, return and portfolio diversification in major painting markets

The present paper examines risk, return and the prospects for portfolio diversification among major painting and financial markets over the period 1976–2001. The art markets examined are Contemporary Masters, French Impressionists, Modern European, 19th Century European, Old Masters, Surrealists, 20th Century English and Modern US paintings. The financial markets comprise US Treasury bills, corporate and government bonds and small and large company stocks. In common with the published literature in this area, the present study finds that the returns on paintings are much lower and the risks much higher than conventional investment markets. Moreover, while low correlations of returns suggest that opportunities for portfolio diversification in art works alone and in conjunction with equity markets exist, the construction of Markowitz mean‐variance efficient portfolios indicates that no diversification gains are provided by art in financial asset portfolios. However, diversification benefits in portfolios comprised solely of art works are possible, with Contemporary Masters, 19th Century European, Old Masters and 20th Century English paintings dominating the efficient frontier during the period in question.     

在岸与离岸人民币汇率动态研究——基于美元因素和套利因素的视角

在全球宏观环境背景下,研究在岸与离岸人民币汇率的联动机制可以为扩大我国金融市场对外开放、推动人民币国际化以及防范化解金融风险提供参考和理论依据。本文借鉴Verdelhan(2018)的研究,通过VECM-BEKK-GARCH模型研究了在岸与离岸人民币汇率间均值溢出效应和波动溢出效应中美元因素及套利因素的作用。结果发现:(1)"8·11"汇改后离岸人民币汇率对在岸人民币汇率的影响在均值溢出和波动溢出方面都显著上升,而在岸人民币汇率对离岸人民币汇率的波动溢出能力也开始出现,两个市场的一体性大幅提高;(2)美元因素和套利因素对在岸人民币汇率的影响越来越强,美元因素的影响依然要强于套利因素,这也基本符合前期研究中美元因素起主导作用的结论;(3)以美元因素和套利因素为代表的全球系统性变异因素会影响离岸市场向在岸市场的冲击传导以及在岸人民币市场向离岸人民币市场的波动传导。     

中国商品期货投资属性研究

在全球大宗商品金融化的背景下,商品期货逐渐成为一类重要投资性资产。本文旨在从风险溢价、风险分散和风险因子这三个方面探讨我国商品期货的投资属性。测算显示,我国商品期货的风险溢价为正,说明期货多头获得风险补偿,支持正常贴水理论。与美国类似,近十年来我国商品期货市场与股票市场高度正相关,意味着分散股市风险的功能较弱;进一步研究表明,通货膨胀和经济周期是产生这种正相关的主要渠道。另外,我们发现美国商品期货市场上常用的风险因子在中国并不适用。     

Market Segmentation and Information Asymmetry in Chinese Stock Markets: A VAR Analysis

This study examines the market segmentation and information asymmetry patterns in Chinese stock markets. The recursive cointegration analysis confirms that each of six markets is not linked with other markets in the long run. Further, the result from data‐determined forecast error variance decomposition clearly shows that foreign investors in the Shanghai B‐share market are better informed than Chinese domestic investors in two A‐share markets and foreign investors in Shenzhen and Hong Kong markets over time. The finding challenges a widespread assumption of less informed foreign investors in the literature, but suggests that foreign investors could be more informed in emerging markets.     

Momentum effects in China: A review of the literature and an empirical explanation of prevailing controversies

The contribution of this paper is to enable solid conclusions to be drawn about the existence of momentum effects in China as the current evidence is unsatisfactory. We review and analyse the existing empirical studies on momentum and contrarian strategies in China and show that many of the findings in these studies appear inconsistent, if not actually contradictory. To clarify this confused situation we initially identify common findings in the diverse and seemingly contradictory body of existing empirical evidence. Subsequently, we systematically assess how the design of empirical studies affects the results of investigations in this area. We do this by conducting an empirical analysis of monthly data on Chinese A shares, varying one factor in the research design at a time (sample period, equally or value-weighed portfolios, skipping a period between portfolio formation and holding periods, and exclusion of post-IPO observations). This allows us to pinpoint directly how each of these factors affects momentum profits and thus when these profits are likely to be observed. It also indicates why studies using different designs might have arrived at seemingly inconsistent conclusions. Overall, we draw a number of conclusions: there appear to exist medium- and longer-term reversals in the pre-2001 period and short-term reversals and longer-term momentum effects thereafter; there is substantial time-variation in the profits to momentum strategies; small stocks exhibit stronger reversals than their larger counterparts; a large fraction of portfolio returns occur in the first month after formation; there is evidence of post-IPO price drifts. In summary, this study reconciles and explains the inconsistent evidence on the existence of momentum and contrarian effects in China allowing clear conclusions to be drawn.     

The Volatility of Return Revisions and Financial Statement Literacy in Emerging Markets: The Case of Cross‐listed Chinese Firms

Are foreign investors in emerging markets more financial statement literate than domestic investors? If so, this conjecture implies that foreign (domestic) investors are more likely to revise their return expectations to cash flow (discount rate) news. It also implies that cash flow news and discount rate news are likely to be uncorrelated when evaluating return revisions by domestic investors, whereas cash flow news and discount rate news are likely to be negatively correlated when evaluating return revisions by foreign investors. The Chinese equity markets yield robust empirical results that are consistent with both hypotheses.