Investor response to online value line rank changes: Foreign versus local stocks

We find that the Value Line effect is confined to U.S. stocks. U.S. listed stocks significantly outperform their benchmarks long after Value Line Timeliness rank change announcements. In contrast, we find no evidence of a Value Line effect for recommendations made for foreign stocks that list on U.S. exchanges, nor for those that list outside the U.S. For days surrounding rank change announcements, trading volume is abnormally high for U.S. listed stocks, but remains unchanged for the foreign stock sample. Our findings are unchanged after controlling for unique valuation challenges, varying market conditions, beta, firm size, book-to-market, momentum, and post earnings announcement effects.     

The effect of value line investment survey rank changes on common stock prices

The information content of Value Line Investment Survey rank changes is investigated. The results suggest rank changes affect common stock prices, but the effect varies by the type of rank change. Changes from rank 2 to rank 1 have the most dramatic impact on prices. A cross-sectional analysis finds small firms have a greater reaction to a rank change than larger firms, which supports theories on the frequency of report arrival and precision of information. A speed of adjustment test concludes the prices of individual securities adjust to the information in a rank change over a multiple-day period.     

Earnings components and the asymmetric timeliness of earnings: the case of FRS 3 in the UK

We exploit a unique setting to examine how an accounting regulation change affects the asymmetric timeliness of earnings. Financial Reporting Standard No. 3: Reporting Financial Performance (FRS 3) changed the way listed UK companies recognised bad news through ordinary or extraordinary items. FRS 3 tightened the definition of extraordinary items but gave wider discretion in classifying exceptional items. The results were that, after FRS 3, the asymmetric timeliness of earnings before extraordinary items increased and the association of earnings conservatism with discretionary accruals was weaker.     

Accrual and cash flow accounting models: A comparison of the value relevance and timeliness of their components

This research uses the empirical framework developed by Easton, Harris and Ohlson (1992) to examine the relative ability of the accrual and cash flow accounting models to capture value relevant events. In particular, components of clean surplus accrual earnings are compared with components of total cash flows to determine their relative abilities to recognise value relevant events in a timely manner. The results indicate that the association between stock returns and earnings is higher than that with total cash flows for return intervals of between one and ten years. Cash flows from operations and current accruals are able to recognise value relevant events in a timely manner, while non-current and non-operating accruals only become consistently value relevant when longer return intervals are considered. Cash flows from investing and financing activities are less value relevant than the other components considered, especially over longer return intervals.     

The leverage effect puzzle: the case of European sovereign credit default swap market

One of the stylized facts about the behaviour of time series is that their volatility exhibits asymmetrical responses to good and bad news. In the case of stock markets, volatility seems to rise when the stock price decreases and fall when the stock price increases. This so-called “leverage effect” was first described by Black (Proceedings of the 1976 meeting of the business and economic statistics section, pp 177–181, 1976). The concept is not new and has already been comprehensively studied and implemented in many volatility models (GARCH and SV) in the form of an additional parameter in the volatility equation. However, there is no study or a theoretical explanation of the leverage effect in sovereign credit default swap spreads (hereinafter: sCDS). In this article, we discuss the possible behaviour of sCDS volatility and explain it by way of reference to the Prospect Theory by Kahneman and Tversky (Econometrica 47(2):263–292, 1979). We estimate a series of stochastic volatility models with the leverage effect, proposed by Yu (J Econom 127(2):165–178, 2005). In this model, the “leverage effect” is, in fact, the same as a coefficient of the correlation between the current return of an asset and its expected future volatility. We show that the effect does exist and differs across markets. As far as the safe European markets are concerned, the parameter is negative; in the case of extremely risky economies—it is positive. In markets of medium risk the effect varies depending on the relationship between the perceived risk and the value of the sCDS premium.     

The equity premium: a deeper puzzle

Traditional pre-1929 consumption measures understate the extent of serial correlation in the US annual real growth rate of per capita consumption of non-durables and services due to measurement limitations in the construction of their major components. Under alternative measures proposed in this study, the serial correlation of consumption growth is \(0.42\) for the \(1899\) – \(2012\) , contrary to the estimate of \(-0.15\) under the traditional measures. This new evidence implies that the class of economies studied by Mehra and Prescott (J Monet Econ 15(2):145–161, 1985) generates a negative equity premium for reasonable risk aversion levels, thus, further exacerbating the equity premium puzzle.     

Downside risk aversion,fixed-income exposure,and the value premium puzzle

The value premium is relatively small for investors with a material fixed-income exposure, such as insurance companies and pension funds, especially when they are downside-risk-averse. Value stocks are less attractive to these investors because they offer a relatively poor hedge against poor bond returns. This result arises for plausible, medium-term evaluation horizons of around one year. Our findings cast doubt on the practical relevance of the value premium for these investors and reiterate the importance of the choice of the relevant test portfolio, risk measure and investment horizon in empirical tests of market portfolio efficiency.     

The value line enigma (1965–1978): A case study of performance evaluation issues

The performance of Value Line Investment Survey recommendations made between 1965 and 1978 is evaluated by applying a future benchmark technique. The future benchmark technique avoids selection bias problems associated with using historic benchmarks as well as known difficulties of using Capital Asset Pricing Model benchmarks. Potential problems (implicit in the technique) are discussed and resolved within the conduct of the experiment. Results indicate statistically significant abnormal performance when future benchmarks are computed using a market model.     

The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in the presence of structural shifts: The case of Japan versus the USA

This paper tests the Feldstein-Horioka “puzzle” for the two richest countries of the world: Japan and the USA. For this purpose it employs three different cointegration tests that are applied to the Feldstein-Horioka long-run investment-saving equation in conjunction with the Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) unit root test considering two structural shifts. A novel aspect of the paper is that it determines the number of breaks solely from a scrutiny of the data and that in constructing the dummy variables for the breaks it uses the endogenously determined break dates. It shows that allowing for structural shifts eliminates the “puzzle” both for Japan and the USA.     

Behavior of the money stock: Is there a puzzle?

This paper examines the factual and logical bases underlying recent proposals that the Federal Reserve should reduce the attention it attaches to the monetary aggregates and finds these arguments seriously lacking on both counts. By and large the case against the aggregates rests on the finding that some money demand functions have experienced serious difficulties in explaining recent developments. Our results suggest that the problem is not due so much to the instability in the public's asset preferences but rather to the restrictive specifications of the functions employed. Moreover, it is shown that even if the demand function for money has become less predictable, this is not sufficient to justify a reduction in the attention devoted to the aggregates. Finally, we examine the recent performance of a modified version of the St. Louis reduced-form equation for nominal income and find that the relationship that it incorporates between the growth in money and the growth in GNP has remained remarkably stable.     

Asymmetry in earnings timeliness and persistence: a simultaneous equations approach

This study addresses simultaneity bias in piecewise linear forms of the earnings-return relation. We specify an overidentified system of simultaneous equations that incorporates both asymmetric earnings timeliness and asymmetric earnings persistence specifications and implement two-stage least squares for this piecewise linear system. Estimation of a system that is piecewise linear in endogenous variables presents several issues that are unprecedented in the accounting literature. Findings provide evidence that the asymmetric timeliness specification is particularly affected by simultaneity and that failing to correct for simultaneity results in coefficient estimates that potentially understate the degree of asymmetric earnings timeliness. Moreover, inferences regarding how conditional conservatism has evolved over time are sensitive to whether OLS or 2SLS coefficients are used as the basis of comparison.     

U.S. exchange upgrades: Reducing uncertainty through a two-stage IPO

We examine the effects on IPO uncertainty of an alternative going-public mechanism – the two-stage IPO, where a firm first gets quoted on the OTC market, and then upgrades to a national exchange where it first issues public equity. We find that a two-stage IPO firm experiences lower underpricing and return volatility than does a similar traditional IPO firm. Our study is the first to analyze the impact of U.S. pre-IPO disclosure and liquidity on levels of uncertainty and pricing at the IPO stage. We find that greater disclosure and liquidity during the first stage leads to greater reduction in IPO uncertainty. We control for the potentially endogenous nature of the two-stage IPOs by using a difference-in-difference analysis that utilizes two exogenous OTC market events.     

Estimating the rank of a beta matrix: a GMM approach1

A full-rank beta matrix is a necessary condition for correctly estimating the risk premia in linear asset pricing models. However, the true values of betas are unobserved in practice and must be estimated. In this paper, we propose a straightforward testing method based on the generalised method of moments to assess whether the beta matrix is of full rank. We show that our method has desirable finite sample properties and performs better than available alternatives. We apply our method to several popular factor models and find that most models have rank deficiency in several datasets.     

Searching for value relevance of book value and earnings: a case of premium versus discount firms

We examine the premium/discount firm characteristic that fundamentally affects the value relevance of two key accounting line items, earnings and book values. We argue that from the perspective of both the residual income and option-style valuation models, the relative valuation roles of earnings and book values differ fundamentally between firms that trade at a premium vis-à-vis discount to book value. We find that book values play a significantly more important role in equity valuation than earnings when firms trade at a discount. We also find that other known influential conditions, such as the sign of earnings (Collins et al. in Acc Rev 74(1):29–61, 1999) or the relative levels of earnings and book value (Burgstahler and Dichev in Acc Rev 72(2):187–215, 1997), become inconsequential when the premium/discount condition of the firm is controlled for. The discovered relationships between the relative valuation roles of book values and earnings and the discount/premium characteristics of the firm are robust to the effect of time, information environment and the industry of the firm.     

Habit formation and the equity–premium puzzle: a skeptical view

We argue that, ceteris paribus, introducing a habit that resolves the equity–premium puzzle is equivalent to increasing the Arrow-Pratt coefficient of relative risk aversion, AP-RRA. If we constrain the AP-RRA to a constant ‘acceptable’ level, the effect on the equity premium is quantitatively insignificant. In a dynamic setting, the fluctuations of the habit increase the equity premium, slightly, though generates unrealistic fluctuations in the risk-free interest rate. We conclude a habit is observationally equivalent, up to a first-order approximation, to a higher AP-RRA and to a preference shock. These effects cannot resolve the equity–premium puzzle.      

Rethinking the liquidity puzzle: Application of a new measure of the economic money stock

Historically, attempts to solve the liquidity puzzle focus on narrowly defined monetary aggregates, such as non-borrowed reserves, the monetary base, or M1. Many of these efforts fail to find a short-term negative correlation between interest rates and monetary policy innovations. More recent research uses sophisticated macroeconomic and econometric modeling. However, little research has investigated the role measurement error plays in the liquidity puzzle, since in nearly every case, work investigating the liquidity puzzle has used one of the official monetary aggregates, which have been shown to exhibit significant measurement error. In this paper, we examine the role that measurement error plays in the liquidity puzzle by (i) providing a theoretical framework explaining how the official simple-sum methodology can lead to a liquidity puzzle, and (ii) testing for the liquidity effect by estimating an unrestricted VAR.     

The solution to the forward-bias puzzle: Reply

My proposed econometric solution to the forward-bias puzzle provoked several comments. Those comments raise three primary objections to my solution. (1) It suffers from multicollinearity, miss-specification and other serious econometric problems. (2) My key test equation is a tautology or identity. (3) My econometric solution has nothing to do with either the forward-bias puzzle or uncovered interest parity. This is my reply to those objections.     

Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model

The basic inability of standard theoretical models to generate a sufficiently large and variable nominal bond risk premium has been termed the “bond premium puzzle.” We show that the term premium on long-term bonds in the canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model used in macroeconomics is far too small and stable relative to the data. We find that introducing long-memory habits in consumption as well as labor market frictions can help fit the term premium, but only by seriously distorting the DSGE model's ability to fit other macroeconomic variables, such as the real wage; therefore, the bond premium puzzle remains.     

Peer performance and the asymmetric timeliness of earnings recognition

This paper investigates the impact of peer performance on the asymmetric timeliness of earnings recognition. We find a positive relationship between peers' weak performance and timely bad news disclosure. Our results are robust to a variety of tests, including instrument variable approach, difference-in-differences analysis, alternative measures and subsample analysis. Consistent with the notion that weak peer performance increases investors' demand for information, the relationship is more profound for firms suffering from high information externality, with weak governance and high information asymmetry. Furthermore, we find that the relationship is difficult to reconcile with the explanation of managers' herding behaviour. In addition, we show that conservative accounting information disclosure due to weak peer performance alleviates managerial bad news hoarding and information asymmetry for underperforming firms, but distorts investment decisions for outperforming firms. We highlight the spillover effect of peer performance on conservative accounting information and the related heterogeneous outcomes.