The Impact of Transfers and Taxes on Alternative Poverty Indexes

Changes in the headcount rate are the standard metric for gauging how public transfers and taxes affect US poverty. An alternative strategy, one theoretically more appealing and complete, is to rely on distribution-sensitive indexes (Sen 1976, 1981). How would policy's measured impacts change if such an approach were to be used? This study provides empirical evidence using three selected poverty indexes from the class developed by Foster et al . (1984). Pre- and post-policy values of each index are estimated for the total population and for twenty-three demographic sub-groups using data from March Current Population Surveys covering the period 1992 to 1998. The results indicate that the alternative indexes produce consistent ordinal rankings of policy's impact. (In contrast, the measured cardinal effects of policy differ substantially across indexes.) The empirical evidence has a clear implication for anti-poverty policy: government transfers and taxes are effective in lowering poverty headcount rates, in reducing the depth of poverty and in lessening the relative deprivation among the poor.     

公共转移支付对再分配及贫困的影响研究

本文首先假设增加的公共转移支付有两种筹资方式使财政收支保持平衡,一种筹资选择为增加家庭和企业的直接税,另一种筹资选择为增加间接税,并使用计量估计的微观模拟模型与可计算一般均衡模型相结合的自上而下和自下而上方法,评估公共转移支付增加对收入不平等和贫困的效应。结果显示:如果增加公共转移支付的筹资方式为直接税,GDP可能会随着消费的增加而增加;直接税筹资只有很小的劳动供给减少效应;直接税筹资的不平等指标下降程度比间接税筹资下降程度大;如果增加1倍的公共转移支付的筹资方式为直接税,贫困发生率下降2%,采用间接税筹资方式,贫困发生率下降1%。     

Migration,Transfers and Child Labor

We examine agricultural child labor in the context of emigration, transfers and the ability to hire outside labor. We start by developing a theoretical background and show how hiring labor from outside the household and transfers to the household might induce a reduction in children's working hours. Analysis using Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) data on the Kagera region in Tanzania lend support to the hypothesis that both emigration and remittances reduce child labor.     

Labor Market Integration, Unemployment, and Transfers

Integration of the labor markets between a rich country (North) and a poor country (South) often leads to high unemployment in the South and transfers from North to South; for instance: United States versus Puerto Rico, West versus East Germany, Northern versus Southern Italy. This paper presents a general equilibrium model in which workers finance a transfer to the unemployed in the South in order to limit migration. In addition, it extends the framework to consider: the difference in efficiency between natives and immigrants, taxes on fixed factors in the North with internal transfers, and subsidies to the employed in the South.     

Taxes,Retirement Transfers,and Annuities*

In most countries, retirement benefits from pension saving must be taken as an annuity. By contrast, Australia allows benefits to be taken as a lump sum, and instead has recently introduced various tax incentives to encourage annuity purchase. This paper investigates the effectiveness of these tax concessions, and concludes that they do little to achieve this objective This is because they are nullified by the provisions of the broader tax and social security framework within which Australian private pension policy is set     

Bequests, Inter Vivos Transfers, and Wealth Distribution

This paper constructs a heterogeneous agent overlapping generations model with bequests and inter vivos transfers. In the model, households in the same family line behave strategically to determine their consumption, working hours, gifts, and savings. Calibrating the model to the U.S. economy, the paper measures time preference and parental altruism consistent with the economy's capital-output ratio and the size of intergenerational transfers. The model with intergenerational transfers better explains, although not fully, the wealth distribution of the United States. The paper also analyzes the effects of government policy changes on wealth accumulation, distribution, and social welfare. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D31, D64, D91, H31.     

Transfers, the terms of trade, and capital accumulation

Abstract .  In the context of a two-sector overlapping-generations model it is demonstrated that a steady-state transfer paradox may arise under commodity trade with stability and without distortions or bystanders. The existence of the paradox is due to the effect of the transfer on world capital accumulation, which is shown to always (i.e., for any ranking of factor intensities and savings rates) improve the donor's terms of trade. Transfers may also improve steady-state welfare for both donor and recipient and produce paradoxical welfare results along the transition path.     

长期多维贫困、不平等与致贫因素

本文利用Alkire&Foster(2011)多维贫困测度方法和Foster(2009)的持续时间分析法,构建了长期多维贫困与平均贫困持续时间指数,以CHNS数据为样本从静态和动态双重视角分析了我国的长期多维贫困程度,并通过多层回归模型探讨了致贫的宏微观因素。研究发现:长期多维贫困指数不仅能测度家庭贫困程度,还能反映贫困家庭平均贫困持续时间;相比城市家庭,农村家庭长期多维贫困发生率更高,但随着贫困持续时间的延长,城乡贫困家庭的平均被剥夺深度出现了明显的逆转,城市贫困家庭的贫困程度相对于农村更为严重;户籍制度能解释城乡家庭长期多维贫困发生率差异的43%,且能解释城乡贫困家庭的贫困不平等程度的17%;家庭的户主特征、社会关系、人口规模与结构、户籍制度等因素对长期多维贫困发生率及不平等有显著影响。     

控制权转让、产权性质与公司绩效

本文以2003—2011年A股发生终极控制人变动的上市公司为样本,考察了四类控制权变动对公司绩效的影响。结果发现:(1)国有转民营和民营转国有都能显著提高公司绩效,而国有转国有和民营转民营对公司绩效的提高并不显著;(2)民营转国有对公司绩效的提高源于隧道效应的减弱,而国有转民营对公司绩效的提高则是隧道效应的减弱和经理人代理问题的降低两方面共同作用的结果。以上结论说明,产权性质的改变在控制权转让过程中起到了积极的作用,不同所有制结构在治理问题上各有优缺点:国有企业往往面临更为严重的经理人代理问题,而民营企业的大股东隧道效应更为严重。所有权性质的转变导致治理形式的转换,新的治理形式克服了原先治理形式的缺点,从而提高了效率。本文结论有利于缓解"国进民退"的争论,同时为进一步推进混合所有制改革提供了经验证据。     

Intergovernmental Transfers,Governance Structure and Fiscal Decentralization

We provide a model incorporating features of local public finance in Japan, including close fiscal ties between different levels of government as well as bureaucratic determinations of intergovernmental transfers. The discretionary nature of transfers softens local budgets ex post, which exerts perverse incentive effects on local governments ex ante. Fiscal decentralization that assigns more revenue responsibility to the local level serves to counteract this moral hazard incentive. The emphasis is on the endogenous nature of regional fiscal capacities at the local level. Fiscal devolution motivates local jurisdictions to become fiscally independent wherever possible. JEL Classification Number: H7.     

Poverty, voracity, and growth

This article investigates economic performance when enforceable property rights are missing and basic needs matter for consumption. It suggests a new view of the so-called voracity effect according to which windfall gains in productivity induce behavior that leads to lower economic growth. Taking into account that the rate of intertemporal substitution in consumption depends on the level of consumption, it is shown that “voracious behavior” is situation-specific. It occurs when an economy is in decline and sufficiently close to stagnation.     

Solidarity and Probabilistic Target Rules

We consider a probabilistic approach to collective choice problems where a group of agents with single-peaked preferences have to decide on the level or location of a public good. We show that every probabilistic rule that satisfies Pareto efficiency and "solidarity" (population-monotonicity or replacement-domination) must equal a so-called target rule.     

Inflation Expectations, Interest Rates and Arbitrary Income Transfers

Unexpected inflation, disinflation or deflation cause arbitrary income transfers between an economy's borrowers and lenders. This redistribution results from distorted real interest rates that are too high when price level changes are over‐predicted and too low when they are under‐predicted. This article shows that in Australia's case, inflation expectations were mostly biased upwards throughout the 1990s, according to the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research series and to a new derived series based on bond yields, implying that real interest rates were too high over this time. In turn, this caused substantial arbitrary income transfers from debtors to creditors, estimated to have averaged up to 3 per cent of gross domestic product over the period.     

当期产出、转移支付与继任博弈

各种组织都存在职位的继任。在任者需要决定当期产出以及留给继任者的转移支付。通过博弈分析可以发现,存在转移支付占个人总贡献的比例为常数的均衡策略,但要同时满足组织总产出最大化目标的难度较大。当参与人只参与一次博弈,则不同类型的参与人策略选择不同,博弈的解是贝叶斯均衡。当某些参数因人而异时,每个参与人的转移支付比例也不一样。如果在任者对于未来贡献的效用评价很低或者无法获得相应的回报时,将出现短视行为、政绩工程和组织中的利他行动提供不足。而在家族式组织的继任中,参与人效用函数受家族关系的影响并且对于继任者人选的限制使得个人和组织最优化目标的偏离扩大。     

Are Family Transfers Crowded Out by Public Transfers?

We give an account of an overlapping–generations experiment with multiple families in which voluntary transfers can take the form of support to the elderly or grants to children. Support to the old is a purely intergenerational (intra–family) transfer, whereas grants to children also involve an element of intra–generational (inter–family) redistribution through a compulsory pension system. Our data show that higher compulsory inter–family transfers lead subjects to place relatively more emphasis on support instead of grants: grants are crowded out, but support is not significantly affected. The efficiency of voluntary transfers increases, however. Furthermore, if subjects give transfers, they do not use tokens of direct reciprocity; evidence of indirect reciprocity in transfer behavior can only be obtained for the case where compulsory transfers are high.
JEL classification : C 91; H 55     

不平等、贫困与全球化

反全球化人士认为,世界上的不平等和贫困状况几十年来在不断加剧,一些国际组织有时也持这种观点。然而最新研究显示,从1950年代到1990年代末这段时期,情况并没有发生变化,或者还稍有好转。一项针对近两个世纪的长期研究可以使我们更好地理解不平等与贫困的演变,从而更准确地界定二者与全球化之间的关系。