非洲猪瘟疫情对我国生猪价格的冲击效应研究

我国于2018年8月暴发的非洲猪瘟疫情是导致生猪市场价格波动的重要因素,目前尚无关于该疫情冲击效应的定量研究。本文首先分析了猪肉价格波动的机理,并阐释国内生猪市场的价格波动是猪肉价格内部传导机制和外部突发事件影响共同作用的结果;其次,通过建立ARIMA模型对非洲猪瘟疫情造成的生猪市场冲击程度进行定量分析,比较实际值和预测值的偏差,发现冲击效应在2019年2月后开始变得明显,且目前冲击仍在继续;最后,提出有效建议,为平抑我国生猪市场价格波动提供帮助。     

ARMA模型和VAR模型在煤炭价格预测中的对比分析

煤炭作为我国重要的传统能源,在国家能源战略中占据十分重要的地位,它的价格波动不仅影响到煤炭自身及其相关行业的生产经营,更对我国国民经济的长期发展带来重大影响,因此煤炭价格预测具有重大意义.本文利用2006年~2015年的煤炭价格数据,对当前在煤炭价格预测中应用较多的ARMA模型和VAR模型进行对比分析.结果表明:两种模型的均方根误差均小于限值,但在同时应用两种模型时,ARMA模型对煤炭价格走势的预测作用更加明显,预测结果更加准确.     

预期因素对我国食品价波动影响分析

依据2001年至2010年的季度数据,分析了公众预期价格的变化对我国食品价格的长期影响程度达到0.47。通过协整检验得出预期价格与食品价格之间存在长期的均衡关系,又由误差修正模型得出短期预期价格波动对食品价格波动影响较小,而对短期波动偏离长期均衡的调整力度达到了-0.34。     

通货膨胀成因的一个新视角

2007年金融危机以后,我国通货膨胀发生大幅波动,整体趋势持续走高。针对我国是否进入高通胀时代,文章通过将影响通货膨胀的因素分为长期因素和短期因素,应用相关性分析发现固定资产投资是影响通货膨胀长期走高的最主要因素,其次是货币供应量和产出的增长。通货膨胀短期波动的最重要因素是大宗商品价格的波动,滞后两期的大宗商品价格与通货膨胀的相关性最强。     

石油价格影响因素及波动规律研究

1973年石油危机以后,石油成为全世界价格波动最为剧烈的商品。作为最重要的工业原料,其价格波动可以从成本角度影响到一国的商品价格体系,从而造成通货膨胀;作为具有良好保值能力和流动性的资产,其价格波动为套利资金提供了一套优良的盈利机制。文章借助石油的短期以及长期历史价格,以及相关因素数据进行分析,探讨石油的价格波动的规律,并进行预测。     

供需增速大幅回落 价格持续高位攀升——上半年国内石油市场形势分析及全年展望

2005年上半年,受国际石油价格在波动中大幅上扬和国内需求增势减弱等因素的共同影响,我国原油及成品油市场出现供需增速大幅回落,价格在波动中高位攀升的运行特点。特别是6月下旬以来,由于国际原油期货价格突破每桶60美元历史新高,促使国内成品油价格经过5月中下旬的小幅回调后     

我国猪肉价格波动影响因素文献综述

鉴于猪肉消费的重要性,猪肉价格变化一直是生产者、消费者和政府密切关注的问题。然而,猪肉价格的频繁波动,干扰着人们的生活和经济的稳定,同时极大的影响着养猪企业和养猪户收入的稳定性。因此,需要认真研究猪肉价格波动的原因,从而为宏观调控政策的制订与实施提供依据。综述了相关研究文献,总结出其中主要观点,并就研究现状作简要评价。     

股价内生增长、价格信号与管理者激励

股票价格变化可以分成两部分，内在价值决定的长期增长趋势及供求等因素影响的短期波动。本文认为，股票价格的长期增长趋势主要取决于经济增长，即股票收益率与股市扩容速度的乘积等于经济增长率，但在短期内，股价波动主要取决于投资者的预期，供求及信息的作用，认识到股价波动是由于投资者对企业未来盈利预期变化所导致的结果，分析得出了投资者的预期，供求与信息影响股价变化的传导机制，同时利用股价波动所反映的价格信号来设计管理者的经营激励机制，以求实现股东价值最大化和减小股市波动。     

新一轮猪肉价格波动的特点与宏观调控

近几个月来,猪肉价格的快速上涨受到各界的关注,国家相关部门正在积极探讨应对之策。值得探讨的是,猪肉价格波动有何特点,波动的原因何在,应如何正确调控等。猪肉价格波动的特点生猪生产与产品特性,决定     

河北省房地产价格波动影响因素的实证分析

本文以河北省2004年第1季度至2009年第4季度的房地产平均销售价格及相关数据为样本,运用计量经济学的逐步回归法分析了河北省宏观经济基本层面对房地产价格的影响和作用程度。实证分析发现:人口因素、地区生产总值和货币供应量对房地产价格波动影响较大,其中货币供应量与河北省房地产的价格波动呈现正相关,对房地产价格的影响非常显著。因此,我国的货币政策要逐步关注各地区的房地产价格。     

Development in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics

This paper outlines the ICT statistical developments that the ABS has undertaken over recent years. These developments have been on both the supply side (ICT industry) and the demand side (use of IT by sector). The content of ABS ICT surveys has changed significantly over the last few years and are expected to develop further in line with industry changes and emerging policy needs.
Recent developments in household collections have been the inclusion of IT use questions in the 2001 Census of Population and Housing and in various ABS social surveys such as Children's Participation in Culture and Leisure Activities. Annual business IT use surveys are now conducted and include topics such as Internet commerce and IT security. Biennial ICT industry surveys are conducted to provide data on ICT production, imports and exports, ICT industry employment, performance and structure information. An Internet activity survey is run every six months and provides regional Internet access details and infrastructure details on Internet service providers.
A major development for 2002–03 will be the compilation of an ICT satellite account. ABS intends to produce an ICT Information Development Plan to guide its future statistical development work in the ICT field.     

Value at Risk in the Suburbs: Eminent Domain and the Geographical Politics of the US Foreclosure Crisis

Several US counties and local governments have recently considered a novel solution to the foreclosure crisis. They plan to use eminent domain to compel the owners of mortgage debt—and specifically of private‐label mortgage‐backed securities—to sell the debt to the government at a price reflecting the loan's market value. The government would then restructure the debt and resell it to new investors. The plans are striking because—in contrast to both development‐driven eminent domain and the federal subprime bank bailout—they would force investors to assume asset devaluation and increased long‐term risk. Notably, the plans have emerged as an instance of financialization‐focused politics in suburbs and suburban cities of color, specifically majority‐black and ‐Latino/a suburbs. Local support for the plans, we argue, is rooted in the long‐term disinvestment of these ‘suburbs of exception', which became targets of subprime lending and eventually sites where the ‘financial exception' has been localized. But these demographic shifts, fragmentation and fiscal pressures have at the same time created a suburban political terrain in which the plans have gained their strongest political support.     

Towards a Theory of Serendipity: A Systematic Review and Conceptualization

Serendipity – the notion of making surprising and valuable discoveries – plays a major role in the success of individuals and organizations alike. Previous research has established the importance of serendipity and identified important individual- and organizational-level antecedents. However, the literature has been dispersed and the boundaries of the concept have been blurry, leading to a lack of conceptual clarity and structure, and thus limiting validity and managerial actionability. Based on a systematic literature review, I synthesize existing management-related research on serendipity and explicate the emergence and composition of serendipity in the organizational context. I first identify three necessary conditions that differentiate serendipity from related concepts such as luck or targeted innovation: agency, surprise, and value. Then, I draw from the literature on sensemaking, event-based theorizing, and quantum-based approaches to management to conceptualize the process of cultivating serendipity in the organizational context as a process of enabling potentiality and materialization, and develop a multi-level theory of (cultivating) serendipity. This conceptualization contributes to our collective understanding of how, why, and when (i.e., under what conditions) organizations can leverage the value in the unexpected, which opens up fruitful avenues for further research.     

Accountability of NGOs in Bangladesh A critical overview

NGOs in Bangladesh have been recognized as effective change agents in the socio-economic arena throughout the world. Their contributions in micro credit, non-formal education and primary health care are widely known. NGOs play a significant role in society. NGO accountability, as a result, has become a critical issue. NGO accountability in Bangladesh has been examined here in relation to patrons, clients and themselves. Of the three relationships only accountability to patrons is in a near satisfactory state. Accountability to clients is handicapped by lack of opportunities of beneficiaries to participate meaningfully in NGO policy making. Accountability to themselves is adversely affected due to the adherence to a strictly hierarchical system and the influence of founding and charismatic NGO leaders.     

Towards an Asian model of human resource management? A comparative analysis of China,Japan and South Korea

There has been much discussion regarding the possible decline and weakening of national systems of human resource management (HRM). Yet, culture and institutions are often cited as the major stumbling blocks to this outcome. Such constraints may dissipate in the analysis, particularly if ‘regional clusters’ are considered where geographic and cultural closeness and ‘openness’ to similar economic pressures exist. In such cases, it might be postulated that convergence in HRM will occur. We argue that China, Japan and South Korea represent such a cluster. This article examines these countries, to see if a degree of convergence is taking place and if it is towards an identifiable ‘Asian’ model of HRM. A model of change is presented that distinguishes between levels of occurrence and acceptance. Details of the development and practice of HRM in each country are then set out. The article ends with a discussion and implications section and a brief conclusion.     

The Creation of the Office for National Statistics

A new Office for National Statistics was created in the United Kingdom in 1996 following a series of developments designed to strengthen the relevance and integrity of statistics. This paper describes these fundamental changes and sets out a blueprint for future progress. It also sets current developments in the United Kingdom in an historical and international context.     

What helps? Women engineers' accounts of staying on

We have considerable understanding of the obstacles that women engineers encounter and the reasons that they leave the field, but we know less about what enables them to remain. Adopting an interpretivist approach, this article examines how a group of British women engineers in two FTSE 100 companies account for “staying on” in their male‐dominated work settings. We delineate four specific forms of help that facilitate women's retention in the field. We argue that exposure to help leads to women developing a habitus that enables them to continue working in engineering. To conclude, we draw on our findings to outline HR practices that will facilitate supportive relationships in the workplace and pave the way towards developing more positive organisational climates.     

论现代物流企业的发展观

物流业经过诸多年的发展目前已经成为最热门的行业之一,物流企业的注册数量也与日俱增,达到前所未有的规模。毋庸置疑,任何企业都希望自己迅速做强做大,并成为真正现代物流企业的典型代表,要实现这一目标一个首要问题就是要解决现代物流企业的发展观问题。     

浅谈大体积混凝土裂缝的控制

大体积混凝土的裂缝问题是实际工程中长期困扰工程技术人员的问题,其控制技术的研究是混凝土结构研究的热点问题,具有重大的学术价值和潜伏的工程背景。     

Supply Chain Strategies in the UK Fashion Industry—The Rhetoric of Partnership and Realities of Power

This paper focuses on the fashion industry, one characterised by issues such as dramatic shifts in the scale and power of major retail buyers in the market, the advent of retailer own brands, and the nature of sourcing and supply chain decisions, issues that are increasingly global in nature. The aim of this research is to explore the nature of relationships between UK high street multiple fashion retailers and their contracted suppliers, many of whom are entrepreneurial firms by most definitions of the term. Four core themes emerge from the literature and provide a framework for the research, namely, power, process, partnership, and people. The research approach was qualitative, and conducted over a period of twelve months. The paper ends with an agenda for future research.