宏观经济变量与银行信用风险的实证研究——基于宏观压力测试的分析

文章基于2003年1季度至2009年2季度的数据,以不良贷款率作为评估商业银行信用风险的指标,选取对银行不良贷款率构成冲击的宏观经济变量进行多元回归,结果显示,CPI、GDP增长率,进口额增长率,贷款利率及房价指数均显著影响到银行的信用风险水平.进而依据回归结果在假设情景下对商业银行的信用风险进行压力测验,得出了贷款利率R的大幅上升比GDP增长率的大幅降低对商业银行体系信用风险的冲击幅度更大的结论.     

基于宏观压力测试方法的商业银行体系信用风险评估

本文以贷款违约率作为评估银行系统信用风险的指标,使用Logit模型将贷款违约率转化为综合指标Y,以指标Y作为因变量与宏观经济因素进行多元线性回归分析,通过假设情境法进行宏观压力测试,定量分析宏观经济因素波动对中国银行体系贷款违约率的影响.研究结果显示:名义国内生产总值、消费者价格指数、真实房地产价格指数和名义流动贷款利率对银行体系贷款违约率的影响显著.本文构建了两种宏观经济极端情境--名义国内生产总值大幅下降和通货膨胀率骤升,在这两种情境设定下,银行体系的贷款违约率都出现了不同程度的大幅度提高.     

江苏省城投债信用风险研究——基于KMV模型

随着城市化建设的推动,中央积极鼓励地方政府通过发行城投债融资。但是近几年来,全国各地方政府城投债发行规模的迅速膨胀,以及部分地方融资平台违约的发生,引发了各界人士对城投债信用风险的担忧。本文运用KMV模型,把地方政府预期财政收入当作城投债违约时点,测算当前江苏省已发行城投债的信用风险,并得出结论:除2016和2019年城投债规模离违约时点较近外,江苏省已发行城投债信用风险基本可控。另外,通过敏感性分析测算未来财政收入波动对违约率的影响,为未来江苏省的城投债发债规模提出了合理建议,包括发行短期融资券和中期票据等。     

告别中国奇迹

最近一段时期，宏观经济决策面临许多困难。一方面，通货膨胀压力不断上升；另一方面，中小企业流动性全面紧张，地方政府融资平台的财务困难日益加重。     

商业银行融资平台类客户信用风险控制研究——基于最大负债规模模型

随着地方政府融资平台的迅速扩张,作为主要贷款人的商业银行对融资平台类客户的信用风险控制成为一个新的研究热点。本文在对国内外研究现状进行全面分析的基础上,从地方政府最大负债规模角度出发,通过理论模型推导出商业银行融资平台类客户最大负债规模标准,帮助商业银行对融资平台类客户信用风险的控制。     

中小企业民间借贷风险分类及成因分析

一、对企业利益产生的风险以及成因1.信用风险信用风险又称违约风险,指企业作为借款方,当还款遇到困难或者出现违约现象时,对企业的信用水平会造成损伤,在信用评级制度下,信用度是融资的重要影响因素,所以在选择融资的方式和数额时,要考虑自身的还款能力,降低信用风险。民间借贷利率高、债务人还款压力巨大,会迫使其作出背债出逃等逃债行为;其次,在向亲友等具有亲密关系的对象借款时,常常在没有相应的抵押担保或者对方不履行基本保障手续、手续不规范的情况下(如口头承诺)轻率借贷。所以当债务人的财务状况恶化无力还款时,债权     

基于宏观压力测试的银行体系信用风险评估研究

目前我国运用宏观压力测试工具评估银行体系稳健程度的工作正逐步推进。本文通过分析宏观经济运行及未来走势,设计了"极端且合理"的压力情景,并构建了宏观压力测试的线性实证分析模型,以评估银行业主要的风险指标在遭受宏观经济冲击时的抗压能力,揭示银行体系运行中存在的风险。     

地方政府融资平台债务特征与宏观管理策略

近年来,地方政府融资平台作为地方政府债务主体,债务规模不断增长,举债方式不断创新,隐性债务比例上升,政府资源、资产和债务信息披露存在缺陷,债务风险不断聚集,防控难度加大,对地方政府财政稳定构成潜在的威胁。基于宏观管理视角,应对症下药,解决地方政府融资平台债务产生的根源;多方努力,加强地方融资平台债务风险的管理。     

我国地方政府融资平台规范与思考

地方政府融资平台是由地方政府出资设立,并授权其向市场融资,从事公共基础设施的投融资、建设开发和经营管理等活动,借助政府信用并以经营收入、公共收费和财政收入等为还款来源和保障的企(事业)法人机构.近年来,融资平台通过举债支持地方经济较快发展的过程中发挥了重要作用,但也暴露出一些运作不规范、债务规模和潜在偿债压力过大等问题,受到了社会的广泛关注.因此,地方政府在合理控制债务风险和持续促进经济发展之间应当寻找恰当的平衡点,使融资平台债务有合理的解决出路,促进地方经济健康协调发展.     

对我国地方融资平台信用跟踪审计的探讨

在当前各项经济刺激政策的指引下,地方政府融资平台出现了快速发展的势头,商业银行对地方政府融资平台的贷款增长较快,地方政府融资平台仍将是2010年信贷投放的一个重点。地方政府的投融资平台负债率已经显著提高,其中蕴涵的风险也日益突出,对商业银行的经营风险形成巨大、显著的潜在压力,商业银行内部审计作为监督部门,应及时跟踪监督地方政府融资平台信用,在防范和控制由此产生的信贷风险方面发挥建设性作用,强有力展示免疫系统功能。     

Development in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics

This paper outlines the ICT statistical developments that the ABS has undertaken over recent years. These developments have been on both the supply side (ICT industry) and the demand side (use of IT by sector). The content of ABS ICT surveys has changed significantly over the last few years and are expected to develop further in line with industry changes and emerging policy needs.
Recent developments in household collections have been the inclusion of IT use questions in the 2001 Census of Population and Housing and in various ABS social surveys such as Children's Participation in Culture and Leisure Activities. Annual business IT use surveys are now conducted and include topics such as Internet commerce and IT security. Biennial ICT industry surveys are conducted to provide data on ICT production, imports and exports, ICT industry employment, performance and structure information. An Internet activity survey is run every six months and provides regional Internet access details and infrastructure details on Internet service providers.
A major development for 2002–03 will be the compilation of an ICT satellite account. ABS intends to produce an ICT Information Development Plan to guide its future statistical development work in the ICT field.     

Value at Risk in the Suburbs: Eminent Domain and the Geographical Politics of the US Foreclosure Crisis

Several US counties and local governments have recently considered a novel solution to the foreclosure crisis. They plan to use eminent domain to compel the owners of mortgage debt—and specifically of private‐label mortgage‐backed securities—to sell the debt to the government at a price reflecting the loan's market value. The government would then restructure the debt and resell it to new investors. The plans are striking because—in contrast to both development‐driven eminent domain and the federal subprime bank bailout—they would force investors to assume asset devaluation and increased long‐term risk. Notably, the plans have emerged as an instance of financialization‐focused politics in suburbs and suburban cities of color, specifically majority‐black and ‐Latino/a suburbs. Local support for the plans, we argue, is rooted in the long‐term disinvestment of these ‘suburbs of exception', which became targets of subprime lending and eventually sites where the ‘financial exception' has been localized. But these demographic shifts, fragmentation and fiscal pressures have at the same time created a suburban political terrain in which the plans have gained their strongest political support.     

Towards a Theory of Serendipity: A Systematic Review and Conceptualization

Serendipity – the notion of making surprising and valuable discoveries – plays a major role in the success of individuals and organizations alike. Previous research has established the importance of serendipity and identified important individual- and organizational-level antecedents. However, the literature has been dispersed and the boundaries of the concept have been blurry, leading to a lack of conceptual clarity and structure, and thus limiting validity and managerial actionability. Based on a systematic literature review, I synthesize existing management-related research on serendipity and explicate the emergence and composition of serendipity in the organizational context. I first identify three necessary conditions that differentiate serendipity from related concepts such as luck or targeted innovation: agency, surprise, and value. Then, I draw from the literature on sensemaking, event-based theorizing, and quantum-based approaches to management to conceptualize the process of cultivating serendipity in the organizational context as a process of enabling potentiality and materialization, and develop a multi-level theory of (cultivating) serendipity. This conceptualization contributes to our collective understanding of how, why, and when (i.e., under what conditions) organizations can leverage the value in the unexpected, which opens up fruitful avenues for further research.     

Accountability of NGOs in Bangladesh A critical overview

NGOs in Bangladesh have been recognized as effective change agents in the socio-economic arena throughout the world. Their contributions in micro credit, non-formal education and primary health care are widely known. NGOs play a significant role in society. NGO accountability, as a result, has become a critical issue. NGO accountability in Bangladesh has been examined here in relation to patrons, clients and themselves. Of the three relationships only accountability to patrons is in a near satisfactory state. Accountability to clients is handicapped by lack of opportunities of beneficiaries to participate meaningfully in NGO policy making. Accountability to themselves is adversely affected due to the adherence to a strictly hierarchical system and the influence of founding and charismatic NGO leaders.     

Towards an Asian model of human resource management? A comparative analysis of China,Japan and South Korea

There has been much discussion regarding the possible decline and weakening of national systems of human resource management (HRM). Yet, culture and institutions are often cited as the major stumbling blocks to this outcome. Such constraints may dissipate in the analysis, particularly if ‘regional clusters’ are considered where geographic and cultural closeness and ‘openness’ to similar economic pressures exist. In such cases, it might be postulated that convergence in HRM will occur. We argue that China, Japan and South Korea represent such a cluster. This article examines these countries, to see if a degree of convergence is taking place and if it is towards an identifiable ‘Asian’ model of HRM. A model of change is presented that distinguishes between levels of occurrence and acceptance. Details of the development and practice of HRM in each country are then set out. The article ends with a discussion and implications section and a brief conclusion.     

Ansätze und Ergebnisse anglo-amerikanischer M&A-Forschung

Based on a review of established U.S. management journals (1995–2003), six schools of thought are identified within the Anglo-American M&;A research: “Capital Market”, “Principal/Agent”, “Industrial Organization”, “Organizational Behavior”, “Human Resources” and “Strategic Management”. The literature review shows that the definition of M&;A success, the methods applied, and insights from empirical research differ according to the respective school of thought. Empirical studies focus on the resource combinations of merger partners, the specific circumstances of merger negotiations, and on integration management as antecedents of merger performance. Unfortunately, empirical findings have not yet provided reliable explanations for M&;A success. Based on the current state of Anglo-American M&;A research, the authors discuss implications for business practice, identify research gaps, and propose areas for future research.     

Introduction of New Technology with a Sound Transition of the Input-Output Structure

We examine the general equilibrium repercussions associated with the introduction of new technologies, using the generalized Leontief system that allows technological substitutions. We show that an untested introduction of cost-increasing technologies in any industry may result in creating a non-productive technological structure that does not satisfy the Hawkins-Simon condition, following the autonomous dynamic adjustment process with structural transitions in the economic system. Therefore, we propose a practicable control scheme of introducing cost-increasing technologies that strictly avoids the creation of non-productive structures in all periods of structural transition, using the available information on the ex ante technological structure.     

The Creation of the Office for National Statistics

A new Office for National Statistics was created in the United Kingdom in 1996 following a series of developments designed to strengthen the relevance and integrity of statistics. This paper describes these fundamental changes and sets out a blueprint for future progress. It also sets current developments in the United Kingdom in an historical and international context.     

What helps? Women engineers' accounts of staying on

We have considerable understanding of the obstacles that women engineers encounter and the reasons that they leave the field, but we know less about what enables them to remain. Adopting an interpretivist approach, this article examines how a group of British women engineers in two FTSE 100 companies account for “staying on” in their male‐dominated work settings. We delineate four specific forms of help that facilitate women's retention in the field. We argue that exposure to help leads to women developing a habitus that enables them to continue working in engineering. To conclude, we draw on our findings to outline HR practices that will facilitate supportive relationships in the workplace and pave the way towards developing more positive organisational climates.     

论现代物流企业的发展观

物流业经过诸多年的发展目前已经成为最热门的行业之一,物流企业的注册数量也与日俱增,达到前所未有的规模。毋庸置疑,任何企业都希望自己迅速做强做大,并成为真正现代物流企业的典型代表,要实现这一目标一个首要问题就是要解决现代物流企业的发展观问题。