市场结构、治理结构与国有银行改革——两种国有银行改革思路的检讨和进一步改革的方向

针对我国银行业的改革,理论界提出了两种思路市场结构的改革和治理结构的改革.市场结构改革思路认为我国银行业的主要问题在于市场结构过于集中,国有银行垄断了银行业.本文通过分析得到了银行集中不会导致垄断,不会削弱竞争,反而有利于银行效率提高的结论.治理结构改革思路主张改革国有银行内部的治理结构,对国有银行进行国有控股的股份制改造.国有控股的股份制改造可以改善国有银行的治理,但不能形成最终有效的治理结构.进一步改革的方向是在股份制改造基础上,国有股退出.     

中国国有银行改革进程中的效率变迁:金融功能视角

关于国有银行效率的已有研究大都缺乏中国制度背景,只是简单的实证分析,所得结论只具有短期性,并且由于期限、模型和代表变量的选择不同而有所差异。本文结合我国的经济制度,从金融功能视角对国有银行的效率进行了分析。本文认为,国有银行具有市场金融功能与财政替代功能双重属性,这两种功能演变的内在逻辑决定了国有银行在不同阶段的效率。国有银行市场化改革应重视国有银行功能与外部制度环境之间的耦合性,与相应的财税体制改革也纳入统一框架,共同推进,以避免银行功能财政化。     

我国国有银行和股份制商业银行的效率差异及投入拥挤实证研究

利用14家国有银行和股份制商业银行五年的面板数据,本文首先运用数据包络分析法（DEA）对我国两类商业性银行2000年到2004年的技术效率、纯技术效率和规模效率进行了测算,并对效率差异进行统计鉴定.结果发现,14家银行总体上效率都呈现上升趋势;国有银行的纯技术效率远远超过股份制银行;股份制银行的规模效率远远超过国有银行.四大国有银行全部处于规模报酬递减状态,适当调整规模可以提高国有银行效率;国有银行和股份制银行的技术效率差异不大.在此基础上,本文对14家银行的投入拥挤情况进行了深入分析,结果发现,（1）总体上,我国国有银行和股份制银行的投入拥挤程度呈下降趋势;（2）国有银行投入拥挤明显改善;（3）股份制银行人员投入拥挤起伏比较大,最后仍然回归到低位水平.分析造成股份制银行投入拥挤大幅度变化的原因,主要是由于交通银行冗余人员的大幅度增长所致.     

国有银行上市:一场艰难的手术

国有银行股份制改革是我国金融体制改革的重大举措,国有银行上市不仅具有重大的现实意义,而且具有深远的历史意义.本文从分析国有银行劣势的角度,对国有银行的上市选择进行了展望.     

银行产业组织演变趋势与国有银行改革的路径选择

主要市场经济国家银行业出现的集中和规模扩张演变趋势对我国国有银行改革具有重要的启示.中国银行业改革的核心是银行产业组织效率的提升,国有银行体制转轨的路径选择应该是股权多元化的产权结构改革和放开行业管制的市场结构改革并重的综合改革.当前银行业应该全面对内资(特别是民间投资者)开放,对外资的开放须循序渐进.     

银行转型的宏观经济冲击

本文主要通过对现阶段我国国有银行的发展性质和状况进行简单的分析,利用对相关文献数据来研究银行的转型问题,探讨银行转型的宏观经济冲击问题,了解市场反应,加快银行转型的速度。据此,有利于促进我国国有银行的创新和改革,以适应新时期下的银行发展要求,降低银行转型所需要面对的改革风险,寻找有效的措施来面对银行转型中存在的困难和挑战,从而提出最优的转型方案。     

我国商业银行技术效率测算及实证研究

文章利用数据包络分析方法（DEA）对2004-2006年我国17家商业银行效率进行测算,得出了各银行的技术效率和纯技术效率的情况。实证分析的结果表明：随着近年来国有银行和其它商业银行的改革上市,我国银行业整体效率得到了较大提升;四家城市银行效率表现最好,国有银行中未上市的农行效率最低,上市银行平均效率要高于非上市银行;我国银行的资产规模和规模效率间存在＂倒V字形＂曲线关系。     

DEA方法在四大国有银行经营状况评价中的应用

本文试图将DEA方法用于银行经营效率的分析研究。本文使用DEA方法测算出投入冗余、影子价格等,从技术分析的层面评价我国四大国有银行的经营效率,也从而为国有银行今后扬长避短,高效率地运行,提出了一条改革建议。     

发展中国家国有银行的产权改革:国际经验借鉴

本文着重对世界范围内发展中国家国有银行的产权改革进行了研究。从国有银行改革的理论动因分析开始,到政府选择什么方式对国有银行进行改革。实证研究表明。国有银行较私有银行效率低下,尤其是政府控制的银行体系暴露出来的问题可能对整个国家带来潜在的金融和财政风险。对于部分剥离国有资产的银行,由于政府对银行仍具有控制力,产权改革并不能显著改变其经营绩效。国外战略投资者的进入,能显著提升银行绩效,但需先解决政治体制上的问题。     

信贷市场结构及其影响

在金融改革的过程中．我国信贷市场的效率虽然在逐步提高。但是从产权改革来看。国有银行改革所要解决的仍然还是所有者缺位、委托一代理链较长等问题．银行改革的目的在于改善国有银行的激励和监督机制。促使国有银行的治理机制能够适应市场竞争的要求。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.