Allocation of Windfall Income: A Case Study of a Retroactive Pay Increase to University Employees

Household allocation of windfall income has been a controversial topic since Friedman proposed the permanent income hypothesis. Release of retroactive pay checks to a group of university employees provided the opportunity for further investigation of this issue. Responses to a mail survey of these employees suggested that funds were evenly distributed among current expenses, outstanding debts, financial investments, and new expenditures. Reclassification of allocations as either consumption or savings indicated that somewhat over one-third of allocations were to consumption and slightly less than two-thirds were to savings. Discriminant analyses demonstrated that size of windfall was the most important discriminator with respect to type of allocation. The data have implications for policy regarding notification concerning a windfall distribution. It appears that quality of decision making may be improved by insuring that recipients are provided with some advance notice of an impending windfall.     

黑龙江省农村居民消费支出与收入的回归分析

为寻求农村居民收入对其消费支出的影响程度,依据2000～2007年黑龙江省农村居民消费支出与收入的基本数据,运用线性回归方法找出存在于其间的数量关系基本规律。把收入作为调控消费支出的工具,合理运用收入分配政策,提高居民收入水平,在刺激消费的同时,要启动并发展完善农村市场,增加农民收入,大力推广农林小额信贷市场,引导个人合理消费;建立完善农村新型保障体系,更新农民的消费观念。     

The Effect of Windfall Gains on the Sunk-Cost Effect

Prior research has extensively documented the sunk-cost effect – an irrational attention to irrecoverable past costs while making pending investment or consumption decisions. In a series of experiments, we show that the sunk-cost effect weakens and sometimes disappears when consumers receive a windfall (unexpected) income at the time of making a decision. This unbudgeted income allows consumers to write off their past losses, thereby eliminating the pressure to consume in order to satisfactorily close the account. We further show that the similarity between the nature of the windfall income and the past sunk-cost moderates this relationship. More generally, we argue that mental accounts can be flexible and consumers may have discretion in moving money between different mental accounts.     

1987-2004年各国消费函数面板分析及经验启示

本文利用1987-2004年的面板数据,对41个国家的消费函数进行了比较研究,分析了高收入国家和中低收入国家的边际消费倾向和自发性消费,指出高收入国家的边际消费倾向虽然低于中低收入国家,但其自发性消费则大大高于中低收入国家。本文还从收入、消费、边际消费倾向和自发性消费等角度提出了中国刺激消费、拉动内需的相关对策。     

Spending patterns of lone-parent and two-parent Canadian families

Data on 214 lone-parent families and 1,133 two-parent families were drawn from the Canadian 1990 Survey of Family Expenditures to examine their expenditure patterns. Tobit analysis was used to estimate marginal propensities to consume and income elasticities of 14 expenditure categories. Statistically significant differences between lone-parent families and two-parent families were found for the marginal propensities to consume and the income elasticities for expenditures on food at home, household operations and personal care.     

投资倾向变动对初次收入分配结构的调整机制研究

初次收入分配结构调整是指调整国民收入在各项目之间的分配比例,是国民经济体系中的重要内容。文章对投入产出模型进行扩展,深入透析投资倾向的变动对初次收入分配中各项目的影响,以及对初次收入分配结构的调整作用。研究表明,投资倾向对初次收入分配的影响与各产业的项目系数、生产直接消耗系数,以及国内收入总额密切相关;在现有的要素价格和投资结构情况下,提高投资倾向会使国民收入中劳动报酬、生产税净额的比例降低,会使固定资产折旧和营业盈余的比例提高。     

我国居民消费现状分析及未来趋势预测

使用扩展线性支出系统模型（ELES）对我国居民2009年的消费情况和结构进行了分析,通过恩格尔系数、边际消费倾向等参数的计算和分析,得到2009年的消费水平和消费结构。据此对2011年中国居民的消费量和消费结构进行了预测,并据此提出相关政策建议。     

State Income Taxes and Interstate Migration

This paper examines the comprehensive IRS data set of state-state migration flows for evidence that differences in state income tax rates are associated with migration patterns. Using annual data on moves between every pair of states, pooled time-series cross-section regressions indicate that in the 1992–2010 period states with higher top marginal income tax rates experienced relatively greater outmigration of taxpayers and gross income. To illustrate the magnitude of the tax effect, we estimate that by 2010 cumulative losses since the enactment of New Jersey’s 2004 “millionaires’ tax” were as much as 42,000 taxpayers and $6.9 billion in annual adjusted gross income. These results suggest that sustained, relatively high income tax rates could gradually erode a state’s population and revenue base.     

The use of small instant loans among young adults – a gateway to a consumer insolvency?

The aim of this paper is to study 18‐ to 29‐year‐old Finnish consumers' use of instant small loans (i.e. SMS loan) and other consumer credit services that have increased notably in the past few years. We examine what kind of expenditures instant credit is used for and focus also on young consumers' financial situation and their perceptions of themselves as money handlers. The research method is quantitative, and data are derived from an open online survey (n = 1610). Our results reveal that consumer credit is used by young people in all income brackets and employment positions. However, there is a clear connection between certain life‐course stages (young, single parent), financial positions (low income), employment situations (marginal) and the propensity to take instant loans and consumer credit. The young people who take an instant loan once are likely to do it again. Typical purposes of use included buying alcohol, cigarettes and partying. For some consumers, the use of small loans is part of controlled and economical use of money. However, particularly in the low‐income brackets, it is also common to buy food and to repay credit or interest. Young people, who use instant loans recognize flaws in their money management and see themselves as ‘wasteful’ consumers more often than those who do not use instant loans. On the basis of this empirical study, it is unquestioned that young people's consumer education needs to be strengthened. In Finland, this need has already been recognized in both consumer policy and teacher education.     

Regressive Tax Rates and the Unethical Taxation of Salaried Income

In a regressive tax system, lower-income taxpayers pay larger percentages of their incomes in taxes compared to higher-income taxpayers. Although most policymakers and citizens view regressive taxation as generally unfair and unethical, the U.S. tax system taxes wage, salary, and self-employment income in a manner that deliberately subjects lower-income taxpayers to marginal tax rates that are greater than those imposed on higher-income taxpayers. As a result, some lower-income taxpayers pay a larger percentage of their income in taxes than higher-income taxpayers. In this essay, we argue that this regressiveness in the taxation of salaried income is unfair and unethical. We then evaluate President Obama’s social security plan, which would retain most of the current tax system’s regressive structure. Finally, we offer two simple alternative proposals that are non-regressive, and thus more fair and ethical approaches to the taxation of salaried income.     

现行个人所得税制改革的思考

随着我国经济的高速发展 ,城乡居民的个人收入增长迅速 ,个人所得税法在新的经济形势下暴露出诸多问题。所得税制度不合理 ,工资薪金所得费用扣除标准过低 ,边际税率过高 ,审报制度不规范 ,配套措施不健全 ,个人所得税的调节作用失灵 ,为适应我国目前实际情况的需要 ,针对以上问题 ,必须尽快对我国个人所得税制度进行改革     

中国居民消费与收入的关系研究——基于分位数回归方法

国内外学者广泛采用OLS方法对我国居民消费与收入的关系进行了深刻的研究并取得了巨大的成就,但仍没有深入揭示不同收入阶层的居民收入对消费的影响,针对这方面的不足,运用分位数回归方法分别对我国农村和城镇居民的消费情况进行了建模分析,并与OLS回归结果进行了对比,对比结果表明分位数回归结果具有OLS无法达到的优点:可以对各个收入阶层分别进行回归估计,得出我国居民各收入阶层相应的边际消费倾向。分析结果与凯恩斯消费理论存在较大差异,农村边际消费随收入提高有上升趋势,城镇边际消费倾向随收入提高先上升后下降。     

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY

The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy are analyzed using a Keynesian growth model. Comparative static analysis shows that the long‐run effects of an increase in public spending and a decrease in taxation on economic growth and government budget balance depend on the relative size of marginal propensity to consume and invest and could be positive under certain conditions. Empirical estimates show that consumption and production structure have changed significantly from 1930s to 2007; both positive and negative effects on growth and budget balance of the same fiscal policy are found in different time periods.     

The Causal Effects of Income Support and Housing Benefits on Mental Well‐Being: An Application of a Bayesian Network

This study explores the causal effects of air pollution, income support, housing benefits and household income on the subjective mental well‐being in United Kingdom (UK). Additionally, the analysis considers the effects of air pollution and weather conditions. The estimates are based on data from the British Household Panel Survey. The results show that those who are unemployed or who have a low income and who claim the benefits report higher levels of mental well‐being than those who do not claim them. Moreover, the marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for an improvement on air quality are lower in the case of the Bayesian Network.     

影响我国内外部均衡的政策实施环境

当前 ,我国在运用财政政策和货币政策实现内外部均衡过程中 ,要受到体制环境、社会环境等各种因素的制约。由于人民币利率和人民币汇率的市场化程度都比较低 ,决定了我国内外部均衡的实现要依靠政府强有力的宏观调控政策 ,但政府采取的货币政策的实施效果又被当今社会诚信缺失所破坏。我国目前对境内机构经常项目外汇收入所实行的强制结汇政策也导致了外部失衡对内部均衡的冲击。城乡居民边际消费倾向的降低使财政政策的效果大打折扣。不过 ,由于我国进出口商品结构的变化 ,进出口商品的需求弹性系数在逐步提高 ,运用人民币汇率政策调节国际收支实现外部均衡的条件也在改善     

Income Distribution in Network Markets

We enquiry about the effects of first and second order stochastic dominance shifts of the distribution of the consumers’ willingness to pay, within the standard model of a market with network externalities and hump-shaped demand curve. This issue is analyzed in the polar cases of perfect competition and monopoly. We find that, while under perfect competition both types of distributional changes result in higher output, provided marginal costs are low enough, in the monopoly case the final outcome depends on the way income distribution and the network externality interact in determining market demand elasticity.     

Conflicting-claims and labour market concerns in a supermultiplier SFC model

We propose to introduce inflation via conflicting-claims, an endogenous labour productivity regime à la Kaldor-Verdoorn and an explicit account for the labour market into an SFC model that combines an endogenous autonomous expenditure component with the induced investment behaviour of firms. The aim of the paper is to analyse the dynamics of real wage and productivity growth and the impacts on the long run growth trend, income shares and the employment rate of: (a) changes in the propensity to consume; (b) changes in the bargaining power of workers; and (c) changes in the labour productivity under different institutional settings.     

CONSUMPTION AND GROWTH FROM A RICARDIAN PERSPECTIVE*

A new way of imposing the Ricardian closure is proposed through a dynamic consumption function along Keynesian lines. The dynamic consumption function relates consumption to current income and to the accumulated stock of consumer durables. In this way the dynamics of consumption and effective demand become dependent on consumer spending on durables. Using the dynamic consumption function within a simplified Harrod–Domar growth framework, it is shown that there is no independent consumption function in the long run as the Ricardian closure implies. The long‐run propensity to consume is an equilibrium relation, not a behavioural parameter.     

Budget Allocation Patterns of U.S. Households across Income Levels in the 21st Century

This study examined the budget allocation patterns of U.S. households during the period 2000–2015. Four household groups—classified based on their income levels in relation to the federal poverty level—are used for the analyses. Data from the quarterly interview component of the BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey were used in order to calculate households' annual expenditures in eight commodity groups: food, utilities, apparel and apparel services, transportation, medical care, shelter and household operations, other nondurable expenditures and services, and durable goods. An exact affine stone index (EASI) demand system was used to estimate demand relationships (i.e., price, income elasticities, and marginal effects). Overall, we find that budget allocation, consumers' responses to changes in prices and income, and the effects of sociodemographic characteristics on spending can be markedly different between income groups. The use of a representative or average household for demand analyses can mask substantial differences in economic behaviors between these four income groups.     

浙江农民收入差距特征分析

文章采用统计方法对浙江省农民收入差距的变化特征及其来源结构进行了实证研究。研究表明,浙江省农民收入差距总体上处于比较合理的范围之内并呈现阶段性上升趋势,农民内部收入差距大于城市居民内部收入差距,且这种差距呈不断扩大趋势,城乡居民收入的相对差距小于全国平均水平,不同地区农民收入的绝对差距和相对差距均呈不断扩大的趋势,家庭经营性收入和劳动者报酬收入是形成浙江省农民收入差距的主要来源。文章提出,考虑到农民收入差距扩大可能会导致一系列社会经济问题,在构建和谐社会与建设新农村的进程中,政府职能部门必须在"效率优先、兼顾公平"的前提下,高度重视不同地区农民收入差距和城乡居民收入差距扩大问题,而采取措施提高农民家庭经营性收入和劳动者报酬收入是解决问题的关键所在。