Choosing among diffusion models: Some empirical evidence

Is there a ‘best’ diffusion model? How many and which parameters will adequately represent the long-run diffusion process? Two studies using first purchase data for nineteen durable goods are used to systematically compare twenty-four alternative diffusion models: a meta-analytic study, which pools across categories, and an economic approach, which determines the best fitting model for each category individually. A number of guidelines are produced, which stand to improve the choice of diffusion models in forecasting, theory testing, and normative studies.     

Communication Costs and the Boundaries of the Firm

Much has been written about where the boundaries of the firm are drawn, but little about what occurs at the boundaries themselves. When a firm subcontracts, does it inform its suppliers fully of what it requires, or is it willing to accept what they have available? In practice firms often engage in a dialogue, or conversation, with their suppliers, in which at first they set out their general requirements, and only when the supplier reports back on how these can be met are their more specific requirements set out. This paper models such conversations as a rational response to communication costs. The model is used to examine the impact of new information technology, such as CAD/CAM, on the conduct of subcontracting. It can also be used to examine its impact on the marketing activities of firms. The technique of analysis, which is based on the economic theory of teams, has more general applications too. It can be used to model all the forms of dialogue involved in the processes of coordination both within and between firms.     

The economic and currency crisis in South-East Asia

When a series of Asian countries got into a serious economic crisis in the middle of last year, it took most observers by surprise. Current models for the explanation of currency crises are indeed inadequate in this instance. Do we need a new theory, or can existing models be expanded to enable us to explain and predict events such as those in Asia?     

Launching a new venture

With the current economic storm raging, can a better understanding of business models make for smoother sailing for today's entrepreneur? What strategies can entrepreneurs adopt to help them weather this storm? John Mullins has researched entrepreneurial ventures and offers some valuable insights.     

Inequality in Europe: What can be done? What should be done?

As economic inequality in Europe has continued to rise, it has become the subject of increasing academic attention. What are the drivers of inequality? How does it affect intergenerational economic and social mobility? At what point does inequality become a drag on economic growth or a threat to social order? What economic policy tools are available to reduce inequality? This Forum addresses these and other aspects of this complex and disturbing trend. Case studies of Ireland, Germany and Spain also highlight the impact of economic inequality on individual member states.     

Foreign influence and welfare

How do foreign interests influence policy? How are trade policies and the viability of trade agreements affected? What are the welfare implications of such foreign influence? In this paper we develop a model of foreign influence and apply it to the study of optimal tariffs. In a two-country voting model of electoral competition, we allow the incumbent party in each country to take costly actions that probabilistically affect the electoral outcome in the other country. We show that policies end up maximizing a weighted sum of domestic and foreign welfare. Using this formulation we show that foreign influence increases aggregate world welfare when there are no other means of alleviating the externalities that arise from cross-border effects of policies. In contrast, when countries can engage in international agreements, foreign influence can prove harmful as powerful countries may refuse to offer concessions. We also show that power imbalances are particularly detrimental to cooperation when they are positively correlated with economic size.     

我国经济内外失衡的制度原因剖析

为什么我国经济出现越增长越失衡的现象?文章从制度层面进行研究,运用数理模型和实证检验的研究结果表明,内外失衡是粗放型经济增长的产物,而粗放型经济增长又是20世纪90年代初以来形成的增长主义的政经体制与大量廉价劳动力相结合的产物。因此,我国要消除内外失衡,需要转变经济增长方式;而要转变经济增长方式,又需要改革当前过度追求经济规模增长目标的制度设计。     

China's new economic policy

China's new economic policy made headlines in December 1984 when a leading article in the People's Daily expressed the previously unthinkable opinion that the teachings of Marx and Engels could not be expected to solve all of China's present problems. What have been the main characteristics of the reform, which began five or six years ago, and how should its results so far be assessed? What are the prospects for the future?     

基于DEA包络模型对我国经济可持续发展的实证研究

我国当下是否存在较为严重的股市泡沫?我国经济到底会不会重复日本上世纪90年代的道路?我国经济是否存在潜在的经济危机?我国经济能否持续和稳定的增长?这些都是亟待解决的问题。本文运用DEA包络模型对经济增长进行了:"规模扩大"——"效率增进"——"自主创新"的阶段划分,并从实证角度探求出我国存在类东亚危机,但与东亚危机产生的机理又有不同之处。在此基础上提出克服危机的相关建议。     

The influence of demand factors on dynamic competitive pricing strategy: An empirical study

This empirical paper investigates the relationship between the dynamic strategic interactions among competitors in a component market and demand factors in the market for the end product. The structure of competition in the US microprocessor (MPU) industry is analyzed using data on prices and sales in both the MPU market as well as the market for personal computers. The pattern of dynamic strategic interaction between competing firms in this market on a key decision variable, price is studied. Non-nested model comparison tests based on equilibrium solutions derived for specific differential games are applied to identify the mode of competitive strategy between pairs of competing brands. The empirical fit to the longitudinal and cross-sectional data, of alternative models of competition, independent (Bertrand?CNash), Stackelberg leader?Cfollower, and Collusion, is used to determine which dynamic model best describes actual competitive behavior over the life of each MPU. Demand for the product market which is downstream from microprocessors, that for personal computers, is estimated using a generalized diffusion model with price effects. Data from the markets for desktop and laptop computers are analyzed at the level of computer vendor and internal microprocessor. Patterns are uncovered, linking downstream demand parameters with upstream competitive strategy. There is evidence to suggest that when there are strong diffusion effects driving sales of both the competing computer brands, there is a higher likelihood of Bertrand?CNash competition among MPU firms. However, when there are higher cross-price effects (substitutability) among personal computer brands there is a greater chance of Stackelberg leader?Cfollower price competition. When self-price effects are relatively high, the likelihood of Bertrand?CNash competition among MPU firms increases. Furthermore, when the potential demand for the computer product category is high, there is a higher likelihood of Bertrand?CNash pricing in the MPU market.     

Europe's Leading Cities – Success Factors and Policy Perspectives

In Europe, economic activity is concentrated more and more in the major urban centres. At the same time, these cities are in a competition with one another. Across Europe they are contending for investors and qualified workers and searching for the most successful path to a dynamic economic future. Which cities in Europe have made the greatest economic progress in the past? What are the factors that have made some cities more successful than others? And what action can cities take to achieve greater economic growth in the future?     

Models of the relationship of the firm to society

Authors of books on business ethics and corporate social responsibility fall into two general approaches when they answer the question: ‘Why should a business firm, which represents private property, have greater obligations to the local community than an ordinary citizen?’ Authors generally subscribe to a ‘rights’ approach or to a ‘power’ model. This paper will present four rights approaches and three power models which are used to describe the relationship of the firm to society. Introducing these different approaches and models will be two brief expositions which provide the setting for determining the relationship of a firm to society. The first traces two lines to the development of the contemporary American corporation. The second views the business corporation as a quasi-public institution.     

ASPEM as the New Topographic Analysis Tool for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs) Performance Models Utilization

Quantifying and measuring small firm performance is vital in our understanding of how internationalization influences firm performance. That is also important when attempting to grasp the mechanisms of the internationalization processes. There are few methods used for the evaluation of performance of Small and Medium-sized Enterprise (SMEs). These methods can be either macro or micro economic in nature. Hazard Modeling, Stochastic Models, and Learning Models are examples of macro economic models while Z-Scores, ZETA-Scores, Neural Networks, and the SIV^® model are examples of micro models. Choosing the most suitable performance model is an essential step in order to maximize our knowledge in relation to firm performance. Utilizing SMEs performance measures without thinking about the category of model, will bias the outcome of the majority of SMEs studies. However, using firm performance diverse models in an efficient manner requires strategic thinking. In this paper, we are re-introducing a tool that can accommodate that aspect. Abouzeedan (2002) designated the new tool: the Arena of SMEs Performance Models or an ASPEM diagram. The horizontal axis in the diagram indicates the Information Intensity Requirements of the model. The vertical axis indicates the Coverage Intensity of the model varying from an individual firm up to a whole group of firms. By allocating each of the SMEs performance models, at the suitable region of the ASPEM Diagram, researchers can better build a sound strategy for the application of these methods.     

Does Marketing Activity Contribute to a Society’s Well-Being? The Role of Economic Efficiency

Does the level of marketing activity in a country contribute to societal well-being or quality of life? Does economic efficiency also play a positive role in societal well-being? Does economic efficiency also moderate or mediate the marketing activity effect on societal well-being? Marketing activity refers to the pervasiveness of promotion expenditures and number of retail outlets per capita in a country. Economic efficiency refers to the extent to which the economy is unhampered by corruption, burdensome government regulation, and a large informal economy. We used secondary data from the World Bank and other statistical sources to answer these questions. Our study findings suggest that both marketing activity and economic efficiency contribute positively to societal well-being, and that economic efficiency plays more of a mediator than moderator role between marketing activity and societal well-being. The public policy implication of this study is that increases in marketing activity and economic efficiency in countries characterized as low on both dimensions should significantly increase the quality of life in those countries.     

Roche’s Clinical Trials with Organs from Prisoners: Does Profit Trump Morals?

This case study discusses the economic, legal, and ethical considerations for conducting clinical trials in a controversial context. In 2010, pharmaceutical giant Roche received a shame award by the Swiss non-governmental organization Berne Declaration and Greenpeace for conducting clinical trials with organs taken from executed prisoners in China. The company respected local regulations and industry ethical standards. However, medical associations condemned organs from executed prisoners on moral grounds. Human rights organizations demanded that Roche ended its clinical trials in China immediately. Students are expected to review the economic and ethical issues regarding the outsourcing of clinical trials to controversial human rights contexts, and discuss how to make business decisions when there are conflicts between making profit and ethical considerations. Was Roche complicit in the human rights violations that were related to its clinical trials? Future patients might benefit from these clinical trials. Do profit and the greater good, in general, trump morals?     

The impact of the financial crisis on the real economy

The cost of the financial crisis to the real economy has so far remained underexamined, probably because of the difficulty in making such an assessment. The crisis was precipitated by an unsustainable bubble that artificially inflated economic figures, so what should be used as a benchmark for measuring the effects of the crisis on the real economy? How reliable are current estimates of the output gap? Could overestimating this indicator lead to underestimating the current risk of inflation? Finally, what effect will the crisis have on the declining long-term productivity gains in Europe and the USA, and what does this mean for potential output?     

Capital Cities in the New EU States—Economic Status Quo and Current Trends

In the course of the economic catching-up process of the new EU states, the capital cities of the countries in central and eastern Europe were the economically most successful regions in their countries. How distinct are economic disparities between the capitals and the rest of the countries today? What were the determinants of the related economic developments? And do current economic trends support the leading position of the capital cities in the new member states?      

The Political Effects of Ageing on Inflation

Why do different countries exhibit different inflation rates? Most political economy accounts emphasise the role of ideas and institutions: as economic research shows that low inflation is achievable at no economic cost, governments delegate monetary policy to independent central banks. Countries with independent central banks and unions that anticipate the consequences of their actions by coordinating wage bargaining in turn achieve lower inflation. This conventional wisdom downplays the importance of interests, ignoring the significant influence that a growing electoral group — the elderly — has on inflation. Because the elderly are politically powerful and inflation averse, countries with more elderly citizens force political parties to adopt more economically orthodox policies when in power, resulting in lower inflation rates in those countries. Ageing populations may therefore lock in a low inflation regime, even when this is not economically desirable.     

Rational choice of food: on the domain of the premises of the consumer choice theory

This article contrasts the standard model of consumer choice of economics with three different theoretical perspectives – biological, ecological and cultural – in the context of food choice and origin of preferences. Biological and ecological frameworks seem to be in accordance with economic theory assuming stable preferences, while cultural theories are more critical about the premises of rational choice model. It seems, however, that many aspects of the ambiguous choice settings in modern society ask for an even more critical attitude towards optimization models. This study raises a number of methodologically oriented questions concerning the nature of the premises of the choice theory: Are these premises metahistorical and universal? Can they be assessed in the light of the findings of other fields of science? Can the assumption of stable preference be seen as irrelevant regarding the phenomena studied by economics? Is this just a simplification made for the purpose of explaining certain phenomena, or perhaps only an assumption that will be replaced by a more realistic one as research advances?     

Citizens’ Europe: Crowded out by economic focus

Over the last ten years the European unification project seemed to rely overwhelmingly on progress in economic terms. The most prominent achievements — the Single Market, the harmonisation of market regulation, the euro — were all driven by an economic rationale. However, attempts to rescue Europe from the ongoing financial crisis call for mutual support and solidarity, concepts that can hardly be derived from pure economic reasoning. This leads to an important question that has been too long neglected: what is the political and civic motivation for a united Europe? Besides a great desire to stabilise peace in Europe, the origins of the unification activities also included mutual interest in language, culture, habits and people in neighbouring countries. Has this been abandoned in favour of a purely economic vision? Or are the economic arguments merely the easiest to promote to the European population? What message does this send in times of mistrust in markets and dim economic prospects for the eurozone? Can a political, cultural and civic European spirit still be reinvigorated, and if so, how?