高技术促进装备制造业技术升级的思路和对策

世界经济发展跌宕起伏,产业结构正处于不断变动和调整时期.中国作为发展中国家,要保持经济和政治上的独立,最重要的是提高我国经济实力和国防实力,而这在很大程度上取决于国家装备制造业的基础.鉴于我国装备制造业在国民经济发展中的重要作用及目前所处的困境,我们必须寻找新的思路和办法促使装备制造业走出困境,并结合其发展趋势,采取有力对策,用高技术促进装备制造技术升级和快步发展.     

信息化对制造业升级的影响——基于技术创新视角的分析

文章基于技术创新视角分析信息化对制造业升级的影响及其作用机理,并利用省际面板数据与微观企业创新数据深入剖析了两者间关系的特征与形成机制.实证研究表明:信息化对制造业升级的影响呈现先升后降的倒"U"型发展趋势,这一关系在经过一系列稳健性检验后仍然存在;在不同信息化水平、不同高端制造业发展阶段、不同比较优势状态下,两者间的非线性关系存在差异;技术创新在信息化影响制造业升级的关系中发挥不完全中介作用,是抚平信息化拐点的重要途径.最后,依照研究结论,文章提出推进制造业升级的政策启示.     

Impact of the Internet on the exports in ocean-based manufacturing: Firm-level evidence from China

Ocean-based manufacturing (OBM) is closely related to the advancement of information technology, and the dramatic expansion in Internet access necessitates an analysis of the Internet’s impact on marine economy. Combining firm-level manufacturing census data with provincial-level Internet development data, this study is the first to examine how Internet penetration across China’s provinces in the 1999–2007 period influenced exports in OBM. The results indicate that the Internet rollout boosted exports in OBM firms, showing a significant technology-driven effect. Furthermore, the effects of the Internet on micro-behavior differ significantly between OBM and non-OBM firms. For OBM firms, the results suggest that the main mechanism at work is a productivity effect rather than a scale effect, whereas the results for non-OBM firms suggest the opposite. This study also emphasizes the cross-regional and cross-industry heterogeneity in the effects. The heterogeneity analysis supports a greater impetus of the Internet on capital and technology-intensive marine industries and non-state-controlled OBM firms. Moreover, the improvement of Internet penetration can significantly promote participation in international trade by OBM firms in large- and medium-sized cities. Compared with the Bohai Rim Area, the southern regions, including the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, have shown more rapid growth in marine industries due to the Internet rollout.     

从国际生产网络视角考察东亚贸易模式转变

东亚的"雁行"国际分工与组织模式自上世纪90年代以来逐渐衰落,其带动东亚贸易发展的作用下降。但是一种新的分工与组织方式——国际生产网络——随即出现。本文从国际生产网络这一新的视角,考察了近年来在新的组织和分工方式下东亚贸易模式的转变,并对东亚未来贸易发展模式进行了展望。     

Outward FDI,industrial structure upgrading and domestic employment: empirical evidence from the Chinese economy and the belt and road initiative

Does outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) create or diminish jobs in the home country? We develop a theoretical model to study the relation between OFDI and domestic employment and to evaluate the roles that industrial structure upgrading and the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) play therein. Using Chinese provincial panel data during the period 2005–2018, and applying simultaneous equation modelling techniques to control for endogeneity, we find that China’s OFDI presents a significant positive impact on domestic employment, and the BRI moderates this impact positively. As a mediating factor, industrial structure upgrading suppresses employment, but the overall employment impact of OFDI remains positive. We construct panel simultaneous equation models to control for the endogeneity problem caused by simultaneity, and find that our main findings are still supported.     

The stock market, fundamentals, cash flow, and private investment: evidence from Japan

Using Japanese postwar annual aggregate data, we examine the responsiveness of investment to three variables — asset Q (stock market), fundamentals Q (discounted future “profits”), and cash flow. We find considerable support for cash flow, but only moderate and very weak support for fundamentals Q and asset Q, respectively.Earlier work that has estimated investment equations on Japanese data spanning the entire period from the 1960s to the 1990s may therefore be plagued with specification error. When estimating the investment equations, we are careful to split the Japanese post-war period into two samples.     

The effect of import competition on labor income inequality through firm and worker heterogeneity in the Japanese manufacturing sector

This study estimates the effects of import competition from Asia on the labor income inequality of Japanese manufacturing workers, considering firm and worker heterogeneity. Parameters are obtained from regression results of annual salary by using constructed worker–establishment panel data. The estimated salary change is positively and negatively larger for higher- and lower-paid workers, respectively, implying that labor income inequality among industry–size–skill–gender groups has increased due to imports from Asia. However, the actual evolution of income inequality during 1998–2014 is not successfully explained by Asian imports: other shocks overshadow import competition to determine actual income inequality.     

智能制造对纺织产业升级的影响机制研究

智能制造为纺织产业升级提供了新的路径。选取2006—2019年8个省份的相关数据,在分析二者间相关性和理论机制的基础上构建智能制造指数和纺织产业升级指数进行实证检验,验证二者之间的中介效应。实证结果表明,智能制造对纺织产业升级具有显著促进作用;智能制造有效地促进地区人力资本结构优化升级,进而促进地区纺织产业升级。研究认为,将智能技术同纺织产业融合有助于促进地区纺织产业升级,加快制造业转型升级步伐。     

The determinants of geographic configuration of value chain activities: Foreign multinational enterprises in Japanese manufacturing

This paper attempts to identify the determinants of the multinational enterprises decision to locate value chain activities, such as R&D, procurement, production, and distribution, among the source and the host countries. Using data of foreign firms in Japanese manufacturing, the statistical analysis found that the determinants of direct investment in one business activity are not necessarily the same as the determinants for another activity, while they are linked each other through complex mechanisms. For example, foreign subsidiaries in R&D intensive industries in Japan are more likely to import intermediate goods, use contractors for production, and distribute through fragmented distribution system. It appears that the traditional transaction-cost model is less consistent with the pattern of investments in R&D, productions, and distribution at least for the sample used in this paper.I would like to thank Werner Pascha and the editors, Paul Welfens and David Audretsch, for thoughtful comments and suggestions.     

Two-dimensional analysis of the impact of outward FDI on performance at home: Evidence from Japanese manufacturing firms

This paper empirically investigates two dimensions of changes in firm behavior and performance before and after foreign direct investment (FDI). The first dimension is the difference between vertical and horizontal FDI. The second dimension is the effect of outward FDI on firms’ production and non-production activities in the home country. In our careful empirical analysis we use the propensity score matching method to show that the impact of outward FDI differs by dimension, that is, by FDI type and firms’ production and non-production activities. In particular, while horizontal FDI increases demand for non-production workers, vertical FDI increases demand for skilled production workers.     

江苏省产业结构升级对就业结构的影响研究

作为全国的一个经济大省,受国际、国内形势的影响,2010年的江苏经济发展面临严峻的挑战。经济增长和充分就业是宏观经济发展的两大目标,而产业结构是产业之间和产业内部在社会再生产过程中形成的技术经济联系,是经济结构的核心,促进产业结构升级是实现经济增长的关键。本文运用灰色关联分析方法,从横向和纵向两个角度分析江苏省产业结构升级对就业结构的影响,在此基础上提出了促进就业结构优化的建议。     

The impact of microcredit on women's empowerment: evidence from China

The impact of microcredit on women's empowerment remains controversial, as documented in the microfinance literature. While some studies claim that microcredit helps women increase their income earning abilities, leading to greater power to overcome cultural asymmetries, others contend that small loans allocated to women are usually controlled by their spouses, which results in more severe subordination of women and leaves them more vulnerable to the patriarchy system within the household and/or at society level. This paper evaluates the empowerment impact of microcredit on rural women in China. Logistic regression is employed for empirical analysis and data are collected through a rural household survey. The results confirm that microcredit has a significant impact on five dimensions of women's empowerment, ranging from economic security to awareness of social/legal issues.     

基于价值链的内源型产业集群升级问题调查分析

本文通过实地调查,借助价值链的分析工具,区分了位于印花加工价值链上位于不同位置企业的经营现状和演变路径,并发现集群内部存在跨环节功能升级趋势明显、营销环节驱动价值链升级、基于价值链整体的研发投入不足等现象。结合统计结果,笔者提出了内源型产业集群升级中存在的问题并讨论了相应的解决方案。     

创新投资对经济高质量发展的影响研究——基于产业结构升级的中介视角

创新投资是否以及如何影响经济高质量发展是近年来大家关注的焦点.从理论上阐述创新投资如何通过产业结构升级来影响经济高质量发展,并以中国2008—2017年30个省、市以及自治区的数据作为样本,借助中介效应模型,实证检验上述影响机理和效应.研究发现:创新投资能够促进经济高质量发展;创新投资与产业结构升级显著正相关;产业结构升级在创新投资与经济高质量发展之间具有完全中介作用,即创新投资是通过影响产业结构升级来影响经济高质量发展的;不同地区的创新投资对经济发展高质量的影响程度不同,其中,西部地区的创新投资对经济高质量发展的影响强度较大,而且产业结构升级的中介效应也更为明显.     

日本纺织服装产业升级及中日比较

日本纺织服装产业在面临本币升值、劳动力成本上升和贸易摩擦的内外升级压力下,通过产业转移、产品创新、淘汰落后产能,发展技术纺织品和时尚产业,提高了产品的附加值,完成了对纺织服装产业的改造。中国纺织服装产业虽然面临着与日本当年相似的升级压力,但也存在着相异特征如大国、区域发展不平衡、经济实力、制造业的核心竞争力、创新和产业政策的有效性等不如当年的日本。通过分析日本的纺织服装产业的调整过程和经验教训,并对中日纺织服装产业升级进行比较,本文提出了相应的政策建议。     

互联网新经济驱动传统制造业转型升级机理研究

互联网新经济已成为中国经济发展的重要组成和支撑,但互联网新经济与传统制造业的融合仍处于初级阶段,融合发展效果并不十分明显,因此研究如何利用互联网新经济驱动传统制造业转型升级具有一定的现实意义。在分析互联网新经济的内涵及作用的基础上,构建基于互联网新经济的新型组织模式和功能体系结构,总结互联网新经济对于传统制造业价值链的重构和升级影响,为互联网新经济驱动传统制造业转型升级提供一定的实践指导。     

日元升值对日本进出口贸易的影响及其对我国的启示

20世纪70年代以来日元升值与日本对外贸易的关系表明:从短期看日元剧烈升值对日本对外贸易造成一定的冲击,但日本政府和企业采取相应措施缓解了日元升值对其带来的负面影响,即通过调整产业结构、加强科技创新、发展对外直接投资等措施来化解矛盾;从长期看日元升值并没有给日本对外贸易的增长造成实质性影响。研究日元升值与日本对外贸易间的关系,对同样面临人民币升值压力的我国具有重要的借鉴意义。     

The lean way of Chinese enterprises from the experiences of Japan and USA

This study pays attention to the lean way of Chinese enterprises under the circumstance that Toyota and General Motor are in trouble. It firstly reviews the evolution from mass of Toyota Production System to lean production, and then summarizes their experience. Finally, the paper suggests the lean way for Chinese enterprises to draw lessons from the success and failure of Japanese and American enterprises, and the authors hope the proposals are helpful for China to become the real manufacturing power in the world.     

从国际生产网络角度比较美日企业模式

20世纪末叶美国与日本经济发展态势的逆转是世界经济中最耐人寻味的现象之一,促成这种变化的原因很多,其中之一是两国的跨国公司在利用国际生产网络的方式上存在差异,这在东亚地区表现得尤为明显。东亚地区美国式与日本式生产网络在驱动力、组织形式及投资重点等方面存在差异。究其原因,有距离因素、文化因素、经济模式因素等多方面。对东亚地区美日两国跨国公司生产网络的差异及其原因进行分析,可以站在新的视角为美日比较这个世界经济中的经典命题提供新的解释。