交易所年报问询能提升上市公司盈余质量吗？——基于深交所数据的实证分析

在上市公司公告年报后,交易所会组织专业人员对年报进行审核,并针对可能的疑问向上市公司发放年报问询函,要求公司回复并公开披露。基于这一制度背景,以深交所A股上市公司为研究对象,针对2014年至2017年间年报被问询的上市公司进行研究,发现在控制其他因素后,当年度年报被交易所问询的公司,其盈余管理程度更高、盈余质量更差,表明交易所在年报审核中是有的放矢的,关注到此类盈余质量更差的公司;同时发现,国有控股公司被问询的可能性低于非国有控股公司,表明交易所在年报问询中可能存在偏倚现象;进一步检验发现在年报被问询后,公司次年的盈余管理程度依然较高,盈余质量并未得到改善,年报问询这一非处罚性监管措施在改善盈余质量方面的监管效果有限。     

中国上市公司现金股利利益侵占效应分析

流通股与非流通股的股权结构安排使得中国上市公司的现金股利具有利益侵占效应,即非流通股股东因无法获得股价上涨的收益而追求高额现金股利。非流通股股东较低的初始投资成本进一步增强了其对高额现金股利的偏好。但相对来说,现金股利只是一种较弱的利益侵占方式,并且现金股利支付将增大上市公司的盈余管理难度,因此,证监会将现金股利支付作为再融资门槛的重要参数有其合理性。     

The information content of investment tax credits

This study examines the association between stock prices and tax credits for new investment, which appear in the balance sheet as a tax-free reserve. A number of valuation models were developed for companies listed on the Athens Stock Exchange during the period 1990–4. The empirical findings reveal that retained earnings committed to new investment, i.e. investment tax credits for future investments, are valued differently from both the remaining equity and the remaining earnings. Moreover, the empirical evidence suggests that the investment tax credits in Greece are not always viewed in a positive fashion by the stock market.     

投资机会集、内部控制与真实活动盈余管理

以2007—2012年我国沪深A股上市公司为研究样本,实证检验投资机会集、内部控制以及两者交互作用对真实活动盈余管理的影响,结果显示：随着投资机会集的增加,上市公司真实活动盈余管理的动机将显著减弱;加入内部控制治理机制之后,随着投资机会集的增加,高质量的内部控制使得上市公司真实活动盈余管理的动机更弱;在进一步加入市场化进程和产权属性之后,投资机会集与内部控制的交互作用对真实活动盈余管理动机的影响只在市场化程度高的地区显著,并且这一效应只在国有上市公司中显著存在。     

Economies of scale and density in local telephone networks

The production structure of local telephone networks is analyzed with a translog cost function estimated with cross-sectional data on a sample of 44 small local exchange companies (LECs). The output vector includes the number of stations served and the service territory area. Economies of scale are exhausted beyond 992 stations with growth through territorial expansion. The threshold for expansion through densification is 51,053 stations. These results suggest that the optimal LEC's size is small, and that competition may be the most efficient form of production organization for medium to large markets in rural and low-density urban settings.     

上市公司净利润和现金流量盈余管理的实证分析

本文通过对沪深两市制造业上市公司2000年至2004年期间,净利润指标(ROA)和经营产生的现金流量净额指标(CFOA)的实证分析,发现亏损上市公司对经营产生的现金流量净额进行操纵的概率要远远低于对净利润的操纵。主要通过操纵营业外收支、投资收益、筹资费用、减值准备、待摊费用等项目实施盈余管理。笔者认为:选择经营产生的现金流量净额指标作为主导指标,结合净利润指标,对上市公司进行监管和评价,能够客观地反映企业的真实财务状况。     

Capital market reactions to earnings announcements: empirical evidence on the difference in the information content of IAS-based earnings and EC-Directives-based earnings

Listing on a foreign stock exchange and the aim to attract international investors usually forces European quoted companies to adapt information supplied in financial statements to different information needs of international investors. Because of the dominance of the American stock market, this adaptation raises especially the question whether Anglo-American-oriented accounting standards (for instance IAS — International Accounting Standards) convey a higher information content for investors than continental-Europe-oriented accounting standards (for instance EC-Directives). The study examines the information content of earnings announcements, i.e. abnormal returns resulting from un-expected earnings, for a sample of Swiss quoted companies which have changed the accounting standard used for presenting Swiss GAAP consolidated financial statements to either EC-Directives or IAS and can therefore contribute to this discussion. The results of the study suggest that IAS-based earnings announce-ments convey a statistically significant higher information content than earnings announcements based on the Swiss GAAP if a variance-approach is used. For investors in the Swiss capital market, the switch from Swiss GAAP to IAS has therefore increased the information content of financial statements. But comparing IAS-based and EC-Directives-based earnings announcements, the results suggest that for investors IAS-based earnings do not possess a statistically significant higher information content than EC-Directives-based earnings. This result has been achieved despite the fact that for Swiss financial analysts financial statements based on IAS convey a significant higher information content than financial statements based on EC-Directives. Avoiding problems in specifying a model for unexpected earnings by standardizing the mean of the abnormal returns of each event window to a positive value does not lead to a different conclusion if the variance approach is used.     

FINANCIAL REGULATION,THE STATE AND THE MARKET: IS THE FINANCIAL SERVICES AUTHORITY AN UNNECESSARY EVIL?

The most successful stock exchanges developed without detailed regulation by the state. This article examines the role of the FSA in regulating stock market activity and finds that the justification for a statutory regulator is very weak. Indeed, one of the functions of a stock exchange is the development of a safe (private) regulatory environment for those using the exchange. Stock exchanges should be allowed to compete on the basis of the regulatory services they provide as it is only through a process of competition that regulation can be improved.     

利润操纵、股权再融资与资本配置效率研究

本文研究了资本市场参与者的行为与利润操纵之间的关系,并分析了对资本配置效率的影响效应。大股东通过操纵报告盈余来改变会计盈余的时间分布和误导投资者,从而攫取更多的隐性收益,造成资本市场配置效率的降低。研究结果表明:(1)大股东通过利润操纵在股权再融资过程中可以获得中小股东无法得到的隐性收益;(2)大股东的收益随着利润操纵程度的增加而提升,中小股东的财富随着利润操纵程度的增加而降低;(3)利润操纵程度的增加将降低上市公司的资本配置效率和企业价值。     

The Use of Valuation Models by UK Investment Analysts

This paper examines the use of valuation models by UK investment analysts. The study is based on, first, semi-structured interviews with 35 sell-side analysts from 10 leading investment banks and with 7 buy-side analysts from 3 asset management firms and, second, content analysis based on 98 equity research reports for FTSE-100 companies covered by the sell-side interviewees. We observe that analysts perceive the discounted cash flow (DCF) (and to some extent ‘sophisticated’ models in general) to have become significantly more important than prior survey evidence suggests, although we also find the (somewhat paradoxical) continued importance of ‘unsophisticated’ valuation multiples, notably the price/earnings ratio (PE). We find perceived limitations in the technical applicability of the DCF, which cause analysts to rely in practice upon valuation multiples and subjective judgement of whether the market price ‘feels right’. We also find that contextual factors, notably the analysts' need for their research to be credible to buy-side clients, cause the use of subjective, unsophisticated methods of valuation to be played down. Given the inherent flexibility of the DCF model, coupled with its ostensible credibility, it becomes the natural vehicle for conveying the analyst's research, even though it is very rarely relied upon to determine target prices and investment recommendations. We conclude that, while the literature has focused on the technical merits of alternative valuation models, analysts' actual usage of valuation models also requires an understanding of social and economic context and motivations.     

NEW LABOUR, PUBLIC–PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS AND RAIL TRANSPORT POLICY

The New Labour government has favoured the deployment of Public–Private Partnerships (PPPs) to provide investment in transport infrastructure. The results of this policy on the railways have, however, been disappointing in terms of cost and efficiency. Public transport PPPs require complex contracts underpinned by regulatory mechanisms in order to maintain performance and safety standards. Moreover, risk transfer is difficult to achieve, as essential infrastructure cannot be left to the ultimate market discipline of bankruptcy.     

Motives and consequences of IPOs in cold periods

We analyze the motives and long-term stock price performance of firms that pursue IPOs in cold IPO periods. We find that firms are more likely to engage in an IPO during a cold period when their earnings are relatively high and are expected to decline in the future. We also find that IPO firms during a cold period are more likely to have managed their earnings prior to the IPO. Furthermore, we find that cold IPO firms experience significantly weaker stock price performance than hot IPO firms, and results are robust to different criteria for defining hot and cold IPO periods, different measures of stock price performance, and different investment holding periods. We find that investment opportunities, the backing of a venture capitalist, and an increase in earnings in the year of the IPO lead to significantly higher long term stock price performance of IPO firms. Our multivariate models confirm the adverse cold IPO period effect on stock price performance even after controlling for the IPO motives and the firm's earnings performance. Our results also hold within the post-Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) era.     

Financial markets and the limits of regulation

The paper examines the effect of electric utility growth on the marginal returns to investment. Despite the presence of regulatory lag between rises in construction costs and public utility rates, cross-section analysis showed a positive effect of investment on the ratio of market to book value of equity. This result, it is shown, stems from a feedback mechanism from financial markets to regulatory commission behavior. The statistical analysis is carried out with a sample of sixty companies in the period 1961–83.     

Earnings announcements and the variability of stock returns

This article is concerned with the dissemination process of firm-specific annual earnings information in the Norwegian capital market. We find a significant reduction in stock price volatility in the post-announcement period relative to the pre-announcement period for companies traded on the Oslo Stock Exchange in the period 1990–1995. Potential explanations for this phenomenon are tested by relating the observed return volatility to changes in the volatility of the underlying business, the speed at which information is incorporated into stock prices, and the amount of noise in the price process. The empirical analyses reveal no significant changes in either the underlying business variance or the price adjustment coefficients. However, we find a significant decline in the noise term for the largest companies after the earnings release date, supporting the hypothesis that earnings announcements reduce informational asymmetries among investors.     

股份回购中每股收益信息披露失真之浅议

当上市公司签订的股份回购合同中所规定的股票回购价格高于当期普通股平均市场价格时,应当计算稀释每股收益。但由此所造成的每股收益信息披露失真,会使信息使用者无法正确评价上市公司的经营业绩。因此,为避免每股收益信息披露失真所带来的信息误导,上市公司应当在充分考虑管理层的筹资意图的前提下,对从基本每股收益分子、分母到稀释每股收益分子、分母的调整过程加以改进,从而更好地满足信息使用者的需要。     

内部控制质量、产权性质与盈余持续性

通过对沪深两市A股主板上市公司2009—2013年间数据样本的实证检验，探寻上市公司内部控制质量的提高是否伴随着公司盈余持续性的提高，比较分析国有控股和民营控股公司内部控制质量的变化对盈余持续性的影响差异，同时为了进一步探究内部控制对盈余持续性的影响，将其划分为应计持续性和现金流持续性。研究结果表明：内部控制质量的提高与盈余持续性的提高存在显著的正相关关系；将盈余持续性细分后仍然可以得到内部控制质量提高，应计持续性与现金流持续性也相应提高的结论。通过国有控股和民营控股公司的对比，发现在国有控股公司中，内部控制质量越高，盈余持续性也越高，但当内部控制质量提高时，盈余持续性并没有显著改善；而在民营控股公司中，内部控制质量与盈余持续性的相关性有所减弱，但当内部控制质量提高时，盈余持续性明显提高。     

The Institutional Environment for Telecommunications Investment

This paper demonstrates that a structurally derived, internationally comparable index of checks and balances on executive discretion created by variation in political structures and party systems affects relative rates of basic telecommunications infrastructure deployment in 147 countries during the period 1960–1994. Models of infrastructure investment that omit the political characteristics of a prospective host country confound countries whose economic and demographic characteristics point to rapid demand growth for infrastructure services with those that create a potential trap for investors due to a higher probability of arbitrary change in the policy environment. The econometric analysis exploits both cross-sectional and temporal variation in the panel. A robust covariance-matrix estimator based on that developed by Newey and West is used to compute valid standard errors in the presence of heteroskedasticity and within unit-serial correlation, two common characteristics in the error-term structure of panel datasets.     

客户盈余表现对供应商企业创新投资的影响研究

基于资源依赖理论和信号传递理论，利用手工收集的供应商企业-客户对均为上市公司的数据，系统考察客户盈余表现对供应商企业创新投资的影响。研究发现，客户盈余表现越好，越能促进供应商企业的创新投资。调节作用研究发现，供应链关系越稳定、越趋于良性，供应链企业的协同效应越明显，即高盈余客户对供应商企业创新投资的正向影响越强；企业与客户的产品多元化程度越低，客户盈余表现对供应商企业创新投资的正向影响越显著；高盈余客户通过降低供应商企业经营风险促进了供应商企业创新投资。进一步分析发现，供应商企业市场竞争程度越高、融资约束程度越高、客户相对议价能力越强，客户盈余表现对供应商企业创新投资的正向影响越会显著增强。研究结论拓展了客户盈余表现经济后果的理论边界，对推动供应链整合及供给侧结构性改革具有重要的启示意义。     

内部控制与业绩快报质量

以2009—2015年中小板和创业板上市公司的年度业绩快报为样本,研究内部控制对业绩快报质量的影响。研究发现,高质量的内部控制降低了业绩快报重大错报的可能性,同时降低了业绩快报误差,且这种效应在非国有上市公司表现更显著。进一步地,对于不存在内部控制重大缺陷的公司来说,发生业绩快报重大错报的概率较低,业绩快报误差也较小。内部控制信息披露质量高的公司,业绩快报质量也相应较高。研究结果表明,高质量的内部控制有助于提升业绩快报质量,且基于业绩快报的角度为内部控制改善会计信息质量提供了证据。     

公用事业民营化项目中的管制结构与风险

为了防止投资于公用事业的民营企业赚取超额利润，维护广大消费者的利益，政府应当对经营公用事业的公司进行管制。管制结构一般有价格帽，价格帽加成本传递、收入帽、收益率管制等。文中分析了各种管制下的民营公司承担的风险，并做了实证分析。