The Property/Liability Insurance Cycle: A Comparison of Alternative Models

The objective of this paper is to compare alternative models of insurance pricing as theories of the property-liability underwriting cycle. The existing literature has focused on comparing two models, the financial pricing and capacity constraint models. However, these are not the only relevant models. We show that six alternative models imply the same general form of the pricing equation. We apply the model to data on stock property-liability insurers for the period 1935-1997. We find that the actuarial model and the capacity constraint hypothesis are the only theoretical models that are consistent with the data.     

北京市保险公估行业发展研究

健康发展的保险市场离不开高效的保险中介市场,保险公估作为国际上三大保险中介之一,在保险承保、理赔以及风险评估等领域发挥着重要的作用。北京作为我国的首都,其保险业的发展一直处于全国前列,但是其保险公估业的发展却落后于上海、广东,甚至落后于深圳这个地级市。本文运用数据对北京保险公估业的发展现状进行了分析,并分析了北京市保险公估业发展中遇到的问题,最后对北京保险公估业的未来发展提出了建议。     

基于功能观的农业保险发展策略分析

现代保险具有经济补偿、积蓄基金、社会管理三大功能,但结合我国农业保险的发展现状发现,这三个功能并没得到很好的体现,原因有缺乏再保险和巨灾损失补偿制度、保险覆盖面不足和实际运行中管理不清等。为充分发挥农业保险功能,促进农业快速发展,应采取政策性农业保险为主的原则、尽快对农业保险立法、培养农业保险人才和加大对农业保险公司的优惠力度等措施。     

混合型巨灾风险证券化产品的成本分析

如何分散和转移巨灾风险,实现巨灾风险管理的有效性已成为当今的重要课题。论文对50家样本中的5家保险公司进行了成本分析,最后得出保险公司无论是采用传统的再保险方式或新型的巨灾期权方式都能够达到转移风险的目的,并且比仅补充资本金的方式更节约成本,风险厌恶系数越小的保险公司节约成本的效果更明显。另外,还得出最好的混合融资方式很大程度上取决于保险公司风险暴露与巨灾指数相关性的大小。一些保险公司能够通过使用巨灾期权很大程度上降低巨灾保险的融资成本。     

新兴市场国家金融部门外国直接投资问题研究

20世纪90年代中期以后,在一系列因素的作用下,新兴市场国家的FSFDI迅速增长。FS-FDI具有提高新兴市场国家的资本分配效率等积极作用,但同时也产生了新的金融脆弱性,使新兴市场国家的金融监管当局面临重大挑战。新兴市场国家在吸收FSFDI时应当加强审慎有效的金融监管;合理控制FSFDI的数量并鼓励本国金融机构提高国际化程度;统筹规划FSFDI的格局,避免来源国过于集中。目前,外资银行对中国金融部门的直接投资尚处在准备阶段,随着中国金融自由化步伐的逐步加快,以中国为首的东亚新兴市场国家将成为吸收国际FSFDI的主力。     

金融市场差异与全球经济失衡

本文利用两国动态一般均衡模型对比分析了在开放经济前后两国利率、资本存量、消费和对外负债的变化,研究了封闭与开放均衡时期金融市场差异在形成两国相应经济变量数量差异过程中的作用,以及金融市场对资本跨境部门间流动和经常账户变动的影响,进而探究金融市场在全球经济失衡中的作用。研究结果表明,金融市场发展水平较高国家在提供无风险资产方面具有绝对优势,它的金融部门较生产部门对国际资本的吸引力更强,而金融市场发展水平较低的国家则恰好相反。由此,金融市场差异通过对资本的配置影响消费与投资,进而使两国经常账户顺逆有别。本文还通过将39个国家2000年后的相关数据进行面板回归分析对这一结论进行了验证。     

论日本商业银行进入债券承销市场的效应

日本商业银行进入债券承销市场乃至日本金融业混业经营改革采取的都是一种渐进的方式,而包括金融业混业经营在内的日本金融改革对我国来讲具有较好的借鉴意义。从债券承销佣金、承销商选择和债券收益率价差等3个方面来看,日本商业银行进入债券承销市场是成功的,促进了债券承销市场的竞争,降低了企业发行债券的成本,提高了整体金融效率。就我国的具体情况来看,应在借鉴日本混业经营经验的基础上加快金融业混业经营的步伐。     

风险证券化发展动因研究:非传统视角

传统观点认为,风险集中所导致的对巨额再保险承保能力需求与再保险承保能力短缺之闻的矛盾激发了风险证券化的产生。与传统观点不同,文章通过对风险证券化传统解释及其缺陷的深入剖析,从企业制度演化效应和全球产业发展趋势的全新视角,在更深层次上揭示了风险证券化产生发展的“双轮驱动”机制。     

新兴市场国家如何应对资本流入:中国案例

新兴市场国家应该从国别、区域与全球三个层面应对资本流入造成的不利冲击。现阶段中国政府应采取的对策包括:人民币汇率升值、增强汇率形成机制弹性、冲销式干预、实施与国际接轨的宏观审慎监管、通过增加有效供给来抑制资产价格过快上涨、提高现有资本项目管制措施的有效性、审慎开放新的资本项目、积极推进东亚区域货币合作并努力争取领导权、积极支持IMF改革、FSB的职能拓展与全球金融安全网的构建。     

How is Fintech reshaping the traditional financial markets? New evidence from InsurTech and insurance sectors in China

We examine the effect of Fintech on the market structure of traditional financial markets, and focus particularly on InsurTech and the insurance sector. We find that InsurTech has significantly reduced the non-life insurance sector's market concentration but plays a limited role in the life insurance sector's market structure. The results are not driven by potential reverse causality and remain unchanged when we employ an instrumental variables approach and use an alternative supply-side InsurTech index. We further explore the underlying mechanisms and find that, instead of competing directly with insurance companies, Fintech companies provide insurance technologies to traditional insurers and help them lower entry barriers and reduce operating costs. Our paper sheds light on how InsurTech is reshaping traditional insurance sectors, and the results are generalizable to Fintech and financial markets.     

Capital Flow Management Policies and Riskiness of External Liability Structures: the Role of Local Financial Markets

This paper investigates the role domestic financial systems play in the effectiveness of capital flow management policies (CFMs) on the risk of over-reliance on debt. Using data from 44 emerging market countries over the period 1995—2008, we investigate the relationship between financial development, CFMs, and the share of debt in external liabilities as the measure of financial stability risks. We find that financial sector development is an important channel for the effectiveness of CFMs, and enhances the impact of different policy measures on the reduction of external debt liabilities. Our results show that CFMs are significantly more effective in curbing debt inflows in a bank-based economy but, to a lesser extent, in a market-based economy. Our findings remain robust to alternative measures of external liability structures, CFMs and financial development, and consideration of potential endogeneity.     

论中国资本市场的国际接轨问题

本文从市场准入、内地企业到境外融资和金融监管体制角度论述了我国资本市场如何同国际接轨问题,指出应尽快推行合格的境外机构投资者制度,允许外资直接投资、入股或以技术股参与国内资本市场的重组并购和改革,鼓励建立以市场为导向的金融企业、保险业及咨询中介机构的合作。     

The micro-economic effects of financial market structure: evidence from 20th century North American steel firms

This paper analyzes the historical relationship between domestic financial institutions, firm level financing decisions, and average capital costs in a sample of US and Canadian firms from a large and economically important manufacturing industry—primary steel production. We find that national capital market characteristics and firm specific characteristics were important determinants of 20th century US and Canadian steel firms’ financing decisions. We also show that, despite source-specific price differences, average capital costs were approximately equal in the two countries, and the firms’ financing decisions were important determinants of these average capital costs. We conclude that firms structured their balance sheets in an effort to exploit the idiosyncratic features of their domestic financial institutions, and thereby, minimize their average capital costs.     

The Impact of the US Interest Rate Hike on Emerging Market Economies and the Belt and Road Initiative

Since the end of 2015, the US Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate nine times. This has led to capital outflows and asset depreciation in many emerging market economies. The present paper examines the factors that determine the financial volatility of emerging markets in the face of external shocks. By calculating the capital flows of 30 emerging markets from 1990 to 2018 and conducting panel regression, this paper finds that countries with good infrastructure facilities, a sound banking system and high economic growth have significantly lower cross‐border financial risks. An implication from the empirical analysis is that emerging countries would benefit greatly by actively taking part in the Belt and Road Initiative. The framework of the Belt and Road Initiative allows emerging countries better access to China's massive consumer market to promote trade and long‐term growth. Their quality of infrastructure can be improved through cooperation with China in infrastructure investment. They can also jointly establish a cooperative financial framework to enhance regional financial stability. These strategies will reduce systematic financial risks and counteract the negative impacts of US interest rate hikes.     

Analysis on Balance Gap between Saving and Credit Account in China

In China, the balance gap of credit and saving account emerged in 1995, and its amount enlarged since then. By the end of Dec. 2005, with 28.7 trillion RMB saving balance and 19.5 trillion RMB gross credit account balance, the gap between saving and credit account was as large as 9.2 trillion RMB, which indicated a 67.8% of credit/saving ratio. Some believed this phenomenon was resulted from on one hand, the rapid growth of saving account; and on the other hand, relatively slower expanding of credit account. Some believed cooling down cash demand was behind the gap, while others claimed the balance gap caused dead capital and inefficiency service of saving account. In fact, the balance gap between credit and saving account might not necessarily relate to dead bank capital. And the phenomenon itself could not indicate the down-tendency of finance power that underlay economy. Nevertheless, it was liquidity not the balance gap should be regarded an index of capital situation in financial organizations. Therefore the balance gap between saving account and credit account could not be viewed as criteria against liquidity position. Solution of this problem should lay in boosting financial innovation among commercial banks, expending capital market and encouraging or permitting commercial banks as well as state-owed funds to enter share market and so on.     

STRUCTURE, CONDUCT AND PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN AUTO INSURANCE MARKET: 1980-2000

The traditional structure-conduct-performance framework makes the explicit prediction that market structure determines market conduct, performance and power. The primary goal of this study is to evaluate this prediction using the South African (SA) short-term auto insurance market. The empirical evidence shows that a link between market structure and market conduct, performance and/or power is not present. "Prices" and profits are not statistically significantly related to various sellers' concentration measure and do not follow any explicit trend over time. By construction, profits are directly related to "prices" and follow a cyclical trend, as observed in other countries. A secondary goal of this paper is to compare the findings for the US auto insurance market with the empirical evidence on the SA auto insurance market. While there are few similarities, there is an underwriting cycle in the SA auto insurance market such as is observed for the US auto insurance market.     

国家能力重塑与基础设施崛起——助推市场孵化的中国经验

基础设施是任何国家孵化市场所必须的先行资本,但并非所有国家都有能力为市场体系建设提供高质量的基础设施。文章首先从对市场主体的孵化、引导资本流动和促进市场体系纵深发展等方面总结基础设施对于市场孵化的普遍意义。然后以部分代表性国家为例,论证基础设施质量的差异主要来源于其国家能力的差异。最后在国家能力理论框架下,提出了中国从计划经济向市场经济转轨的"国家能力重塑"一般框架,辨析改革开放以来,以"学习能力、财政能力、法治能力"构成的三大国家能力具体的阶段性重塑过程,及其为中国市场孵化提供基础设施的成功实践。     

对我国寿险资金与资本市场良性互动发展的若干思考

寿险资金具有长期性和谋求稳定收益的特点,而资本市场恰恰可满足寿险资金的这种投资需求,2005年上半年保险资金直接入市进入实质性操作阶段,资本市场启动了股权分置改革,这两项措施给寿险资金和资本市场良性互动进一步创造了条件。本文通过分析寿险业与资本市场良性互动的必要性和现实条件,提出了促进两者良性互动的对策建议。     

相互制农业保险在我国的困境及适用性

相互制保险在农业保险领域有着明显的优势。然而,相互制保险管理制度上的缺陷及其与农业保险的矛盾制约着相互制农业保险的发展。目前,在我国合作意识不强、农村合作经济组织发育不健全的情况下,开展相互制农业保险还有一定困难。因此,要开展相互制农业保险,必须选择合适的范围和地区,并对相互制保险进行制度创新,为相互制农业保险提供财政补贴,建立再保险机制,加强引导,减少行政干预。     

跨境资本流动对银行风险的影响--基于风险累积效应和风险传染效应的视角

从风险累积效应和风险传染效应两个视角揭示跨境资本流动对银行风险的影响机理,并基于2000年第一季度至2020年第四季度时间序列数据进行经验检验,结果表明:跨境资本流动、跨境资本流入、跨境资本流出均显著增加了银行风险,且三者对银行风险的影响均存在显著的风险累积效应;跨境资本流动、跨境资本流入、跨境资本流出均通过影响金融机构人民币各项贷款余额同比增速、金融机构外币各项贷款余额同比增速、金融机构本外币各项贷款余额同比增速以及境内住户中长期消费贷款同比增速等信贷渠道显著提高银行风险承担水平,实现银行风险累积,从而增加银行风险;跨境资本流动、跨境资本流入、跨境资本流出均显著提高了股票价格、房地产价格和实际汇率的波动水平,且跨境资本流动通过股票市场、房地产市场和汇率市场将波动水平传染至银行系统,增加了银行风险,股票市场、房地产市场和汇率市场更是强化了这种传染效应。