Trade costs in the first wave of globalization

What factors drove globalization in the late 19th century? We employ a new micro-founded measure of bilateral trade costs based on a standard model of trade in differentiated goods to address this question. These trade costs gauge the difference between observed bilateral trade and frictionless trade. They comprise tariffs, transportation costs, and all other factors that impede international trade but which are inherently difficult to observe. Trade costs fell on average by 10-16 percent between 1870 and 1913. We also use this measure to decompose the growth of trade over that period and find that roughly 44 percent of the rise in trade within our sample can be explained by reductions in trade costs; the remaining 56 percent is attributable to economic expansion.     

Depression dynamics: a new estimate of the Anglo‐American manufacturing productivity gap in the interwar period1

During the interwar period the manufacturing productivity gap between the US and the UK became much larger than existing estimates suggest. In this article a new comparison of US/UK productivity levels for 1935 is presented, utilizing a more rigorous methodology to revise the widely used, but methodologically outdated, benchmark comparison by Rostas that was published in 1948. Secondly, the comparison is extended to take account of variations in input prices, and it is shown that double deflation has a substantial effect on the new benchmark, particularly at the industry level. Thirdly, labour input is adjusted for actual hours worked. US manufacturing displayed a much higher level of comparative productivity for the key industries of the second industrial revolution, such as chemicals and engineering. These results support revisionist accounts of the depression's strengthening of US productivity leadership.     

Did the great influenza of 1918–1920 trigger a reversal of the first era of globalization?*

International Economics and Economic Policy - I revisit the 1918–20 pandemic and ask whether it led to a reversal in the rise of trade and financial globalization that preceded it. Using...     

International competition in the first wave of globalization: new evidence on the margins of trade

We pose a seemingly ageless question in economic history. To what extent did new entrants in the late nineteenth‐century cotton‐textile industry threaten the customary markets of the European core? Exploiting a newly constructed dataset on textile imports to Spain, we find that as trade costs fell, new rivals began to sell a greater variety of products. Along this dimension, competition can be said to have increased. In response, producers in Europe adjusted the type and number of goods exported. By 1914, specialization mapped onto endowments of skilled labour, capital, and access to raw materials. While firms in new industrializing countries exported low‐end varieties, incumbents in the core shipped high‐end goods, unit values increasing with levels of development.     

Yankee Doodle went to London: Anglo‐American breweries and the London securities market, 1888–92

The enthusiasm of British portfolio investors for US industry in the late 1880s has been seen as evidence of the liberalism of the London Stock Exchange and the conservatism of the New York Stock Exchange. Based on a study of Anglo‐American brewing issues on the London market between 1888 and 1892, in this article it is argued that such an interpretation cannot be sustained. For these issues, securing access to the London market proved more demanding than accounts of its liberalism would lead us to expect: in fact, Anglo‐American brewing companies submitted to strictures from London that were more constraining than those of the New York market. Promoters accepted London's constraints to take advantage of the high valuations assigned to Anglo‐American brewing securities there, which reflected the city's success in building demand based on financial machinery that did not exist in New York. That machinery included underwriting syndicates, accounting standards, and the London Stock Exchange's listing rules, although, from this perspective, it was the rigour of the exchange's rules that was important. Still, vetting securities for quotation was not the same as for investment, as the disappointing performance of the Anglo‐American brewing securities soon revealed.     

On the optimal external tariff of a free trade area with internal market integration

Previous analyses of free trade areas suggest that member countries reduce external tariffs to the level that improves welfare of non-member countries. Using an oligopoly model with product differentiation, this paper shows that when a free trade area entails endogenous change from segmented to integrated markets for internally produced goods, external tariffs become strategic complements and their equilibrium level is higher than in the market segmentation case. In this case, the non-member may lose from the formation of free trade area whereas each member gains more.     

Flight‐to‐safety and the credit crunch: a new history of the banking crises in France during the Great Depression†

Despite France's importance in the interwar world economy, the scale of the French banking crises of 1930–1 and their consequences have never been fully assessed quantitatively. The lack of banking regulation severely limited the availability of balance sheet data. Using a new dataset of individual balance sheets from more than 300 banks, this article shows that the crises were much more severe than previously thought, although they did not affect the main commercial banks. By reconstructing financial flows, this study shows that the fall in bank credit was mostly driven by a flight‐to‐safety by deposits, from banks to savings institutions and the central bank. The decrease in bank deposits due to bank runs was offset by an increase in deposits with savings institutions, with the central bank, and in cash hoarding, whereas the decrease in bank credit was not offset by an increase in loans from non‐bank financial institutions. In line with the gold standard mentality, cash deposited with savings institutions and the central bank was used to decrease marketable public debt and increase gold reserves, rather than pursuing countercyclical policies. Despite massive capital inflows and rising aggregate money supply, France suffered from a severe, persistent credit crunch.     

Fiscal policies and the institution of a tax state in Anglo‐Saxon England within a comparative context1

This article begins by noting that military revolutions and civil wars in early modern Europe provide an unduly narrow framework for understanding the transition from a domain to a tax state. Taking Anglo‐Saxon England as a case study, it is suggested that political restrictions led to the establishment of direct and indirect taxation, thereby providing rulers with revenues which surpassed those from domain resources. The main section of the article uses sources from coinage and wills to poetry and letters in order to give a general idea of the chronological development of a medieval tax state. This analysis challenges the views of the new fiscal historians, who argue that a collapse in a medieval domain state acts as the precondition for the emergence of a tax state. Instead, this article suggests that new policies arose because of the need of Anglo‐Saxon kings and their advisers to take account of the requirements of ecclesiastical authorities, as well as a heavy revenue imperative, in paying for resistance against the Vikings. The article ends with a discussion of the comparative applications of the contexts and catalysts which lead to the adoption of pioneering fiscal policies.     

Measuring China's monetary sterilization and autonomy in the era of globalization: 1995–2005

This paper provides a cointegration analysis of incomplete monetary sterilization and autonomy in China when both financial controls and the exchange rate peg exist. According to an estimated long-run equilibrium relation, only 35 cents are sterilized for a yuan of foreign-exchange reserve that flows into China. In response to the movement in foreign-exchange reserves, M2 proves more endogenous than M1; and in the M2 elasticity model, as the forecast horizon extends, the domestic-credit component of the monetary base exhibits its significant endogeneity with respect to the foreign-asset component, whereas the endogeneity of the foreign-asset component also rises with respect to M2.     

China's Free Trade Ports: Effective Action Against the Threat of De‐globalization

With sluggish external demand and increasing trade protectionism by the USA and the European Union, China is facing severe challenges in implementing its deeper, ongoing reforms. To respond actively to such challenges, the Communist Party of China's 19th National Congress proposed to “promote a new pattern of all‐round opening up.” In particular, the establishment of free trade ports is considered an important means to realize deeper integration with the world economy. This paper discusses the background, the motivation, the possible challenges as well as a feasible path for the successful implementation of free trade ports in China. Based on the international experience, the construction of free trade ports in China requires freer trade in goods, high mobility of talent and free capital flow.     

Estimation of the East African Community's trade benefits from promoting intra‐regional trade

In the literature on economic integration, the optimum currency area (OCA) theory says that there should be a high degree of trade between potential members of a monetary union for them to benefit from the use of a single currency. This study uses an augmented gravity model of trade to estimate the East African Community's (EAC) trade effects, as this community decided to participate in a monetary union by 2024. The study uses the fixed effect filter (FEF) estimator, which follows a two‐step approach and outperforms the standard fixed effects (FE) estimator. The results indicate that EAC has the potential to increase trade among partner states by 122% more than expected from the normal trade levels. The study, therefore, supports the ongoing East African Monetary Union process. However, to improve the likelihood of creating a more sustainable monetary union, the study recommends these countries to primarily focus on the full implementation of the customs union and common market steps. The main contribution of this study is that it provides robust estimates of the EAC's effects on intra‐regional trade using more recent data and updated econometric techniques.     

The British ‘failure’ that never was? The Anglo‐American ‘productivity gap’ in large‐scale interwar retailing—evidence from the department store sector1

Interwar British retailing has been characterized as having lower productivity, less developed managerial hierarchies and methods, and weaker scale economies than its US counterpart. This article examines comparative productivity for one major segment of large‐scale retailing in both countries—the department store sector. Drawing on exceptionally detailed contemporary survey data, we show that British department stores in fact achieved superior performance in terms of operating costs, margins, profits, and stock‐turn. While smaller British stores had lower labour productivity than US stores of equivalent size, TFP was generally higher for British stores, which also enjoyed stronger scale economies. We also examine the reasons behind Britain's surprisingly strong relative performance, using surviving original returns from the British surveys. Contrary to arguments that British retailers faced major barriers to the development of large‐scale enterprises, that could reap economies of scale and scope and invest in machinery and marketing to support the growth of their primary sales functions, we find that British department stores enthusiastically embraced the retail ‘managerial revolution’—and reaped substantial benefits from this investment.     

Modeling a north American free trade area: Estimation of flexible functional forms

Modeling a North American Free Trade Area: Estimation of Flexible Functional Forms, - This paper provides estimates of the almost ideal demand system as applied to U.S. imports from Canada, Mexico, the rest of the world, and competing domestic output. Quarterly data over 1980-88 and for 19 mining and manufacturing sectors are used. Implications of adding up, homogeneity, symmetry, and negativity are considered. The econometric results should guide applied general equilibrium modeling of a North American Free Trade Area, especially with regard to potential terms-of-trade effects.     

外向拉动：国际贸易和国际直接投资对我国经济增长的贡献

国际贸易和国际直接投资促进了中国经济的持续高速增长。本文较为全面地考察了我国和世界上其他一些主要的发展中国家工业化进程中对外贸易依存度和直接投资依存度的变化趋势,分析了我国经济增长中国际贸易和国际直接投资的贡献,提出在新时期要大力发展外向经济、提高直接投资依存度、保持对外贸易依存度的稳定增长,共同促进我国经济的增长对策。     

Regional trade liberalisation: a theoretical review of dynamic time‐path and stability issues

In recent years, the use of regional trade liberalisation arrangements (RTAs) has proliferated, while multilateral negotiations under the WTO have proceeded slowly, resulting in a debate over the roles of regional and multilateral liberalisation. This paper reviews the key theoretical contributions in the debate over RTAs, especially the recently developed themes addressing dynamic time‐path and stability issues. However, due to the variety of motivations for RTA member countries to expand trading blocs and for non‐members to seek entry, research has found few general conditions under which the formation of RTAs can become the ‘stepping stone’ or ‘stumbling block’ towards global free trade.     

House prices in the Ottoman Empire: evidence from eighteenth‐century Edirne†

This study uses a new dataset of 2,246 notarial deeds of house sales from one of the major cities of the Ottoman Empire, Edirne, covering the period from 1720 to 1814. It estimates real hedonic house prices and urban wealth inequality for the housing market. It shows that house size, proximity to the commercial centre, access to fresh water, and family ties were important determinants of relative house prices. These findings also apply to the different quartiles of the market, indicating limited market segmentation. It demonstrates that there was an increase in housing wealth inequality during the eighteenth century as house prices became more dispersed. The hedonic house price index provides evidence that inflation‐adjusted house prices declined substantially following the Russo‐Turkish war of 1768–74. The decline is mainly explained through demographic shocks induced by plague epidemics, natural disasters, and other population movements driven by wars, army mobilization, and political upheavals.