Poverty Reduction and Effects of Pro-poor Policies in Rural China

The present paper describes changes in poverty reduction in recent decades and the effects of income growth and inequality on poverty reduction in rural China. The paper also examines the main poverty alleviation policies implemented in rural areas over the past l 0 years and assesses the effectiveness and efficiency of these policies from the perspective of targeting accuracy. It is found that China has achieved significant progress in rural poverty reduction in recent decades, although the speed of poverty reduction has varied from one period to another. The largest contribution to rural poverty reduction has been economic growth, which has been increasingly offset by the inequality effect on poverty reduction. In addition, poverty alIeviation policies are effective, but not efficient.     

Migration Experience of Village Leaders and Local Economic Development： Evidence from Rural China

This paper examines the impact of migration experience of village leaders on local economic development,based on the village-level data of the 2005 China General Social Survey.Our results show that the human capital of village leaders accumulated during the migration period has had a positive effect on per capita net income and per capita non-agricultural income in rural China.The migration experience of village leaders also plays a positive role in entrepreneurial activities in rural regions.From a policy perspective,these findings call attention to the importance of harnessing potential benefits of return migration to local economic development in rural China.     

Does Financial Intermediation Development Increase Per Capita Income in Rural China？

This paper investigates the impacts of financial intermediary （or banking） development on village-level per capita income using a Chinese dataset for selected years between 1993 and 2006. The empirical results from a random effect regression model indicate that mean per capita income in rural villages follows an inverted U-shaped path as financial intermediation develops. However, using a pooled quantile regression approach, we find that median per capita income in rural villages follows a positive linear path, rather than an inverted U-shaped path, as financial intermediation develops. The positive linear effect of financial intermediary development is observed at the lower and higher ends of the conditional per capita income distribution. This suggests that development of financial intermediation in China might not have statistically significant differential effects in low-income or high-income rural villages.     

Guest Editors’ Introduction

China has entered a new stage of social and economic development,having eliminated absolute poverty by the end of 2020.Common prosperity will be a new goal in this new development stage.There are domestic and international reasons for China to promote common prosperity as a new development goal.Domestically,the reform and opening-up policies over the past 40 years have promoted rapid economic growth and a considerable improvement in Chinese living standards but the problem of unbalanced development has not been solved effectively.This problem is manifested in all aspects of social and economic development,including excessive income inequality and unfair income distribution,regional disparities,a significantly large urban-rural gap,and unequal access to basic public services among different population groups.     

Population growth and per capita income： A panel cointegration analysis

The noteworthy effects of demographic factors on economic development have been well documented. However, the empirical formulation grounds heavily on theoretical framework. Moreover, there is no set agreement on the relationship between population growth and per capita income. This paper retraces the famous pastime relationship for a sample of thirty-two countries classified as developing and developed over the period of 1970-2007. The methodology includes panel unit root tests and panel cointegration analysis. The main conclusion of the study is that population growth is an indicator of per capita income. The empirical findings display the existence of cointegration for both country groups. Moreover, the results support a significantly positive effect for developed countries; whereas a significantly negative effect for developing countries.     

Research on the expenditure of Yunnan fiscal on agriculture and its performance

This paper applies stepwise regression to analyze the contribution of Yunnan fiscal expenditure of agriculture to agricultural economy growth and per capita annual income on agriculture of rural inhabitants over the period from 1978 to 2006, and uses Granger causality test to examine the relation of fiscal expenditure and per capita annual income of rural inhabitants and the income differential between urban and rural residents. The results suggest that it is the structure of fiscal expenditure on agriculture rather than the scale that has effect on the income of peasants. Because of the deviation of objectives of fiscal expenditure, the expenditure of agriculture could not narrow the income differential between urban and rural inhabitants.     

Provincial Disparities in Post-reform China

Using conventional and novel techniques, the present paper analyzes the main characteristics of Chinese provincial disparities during the reform period, specifically between 1978 and 200Z After dismissing the presence of spatial dependence, three main results are obtained： first, provincial inequalities have basically followed a ＂V＂ trend; second, grouping China into three large regions shows that inequality mainly lies within each region, particularly in coastal areas; and third, the analysis of intra-distribution dynamics reveals that, although there was some significant mobility in provincial relative income, particularly until 1990, the whole periodpersistence in the ranking of income levels is a major feature. This might provoke some changes in the policy approach to dealing with spatial disparities.     

农村义务教育辍学原因与农户家庭基本情况的关联分析

The main purpose of this paper is concerned about children‘s discontining study in rural areas or dropout phenomena in rural children‘s education, and their relationships with the economic condition of the rural households. The conclusion is that family income, parents‘ education level and structure of family operations have cross-impact on the education of a country child. To reduce the dropout rate of rural children, a key measure is to increase farmer‘s income, but income increase alone is not sufficient. It is argued that reducing dropout is a relatively long-term process that cannot be solved with shot-term government policy adjustment. To increase the rate of junior middle school education in rural areas, an overall economic and social development in rural areas is necessary.     

How Aging and Intergeneration Disparity Influence Consumption Inequality in China

Concurrent with market economic reforms, China is facing an increasing income gap and an aging population. The question addressed in the present paper is how much aging contributes to the rising disparity in consumption. Based on the model established by Ohtake and Saito （1998）, our study shows that cohort effects contribute close to 60percent of the rising consumption inequality, while approximately lO percent is the result of aging. The growth of aggregate consumption inequality caused by the cohort effect has various implications. Strengthening the redistribution system, especially the tax system, may enable the economy to avoid further increases in income inequality.     

Regionalism and East Asian economic integration

The wave of economic globalization moves to all the countries in the world to be integrated with multilateralism and by promotion of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization （GATT/WTO）. Meanwhile, the growth of regional economic integration has been one of the major developments in international economic relations, and undoubtedly regionalism is a part of the global economic environment. The objective of the paper is to review the trends and highlight the prospects for enhancing economic integration in East Asia. This paper has argued that the emerging East Asian economies have achieved sustained economic development and poverty reduction through domestic structural, institutional and governance reforms as well as through market-driven integration with the global and regional markets. Though this process was temporarily interrupted by the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998, the economies have pursued further liberalization and reforms, deepened economic integration through trade, FDI and finance, and regained dynamic growth. The author argues that the reasonable choice for Eastern Asian countries is to deepen their economic integration and the optimal strategy is fostering economic integration with institutional cooperation.     

Emerging Geography of Creativity and Labor Productivity Effects in China

The paper presents an alternative approach to explain why regional productivity is different across regions by utilizing the creative class approach in China. First, we analyze the extent of spatial agglomeration of the creative class across regions in China. Second, we develop a model with spatial externalities to investigate how the concentration of the creative class can promote regional productivity. Our analysis confirms the importance of spatial agglomeration of the creative class in stimulating regional productivity. The results also imply that regional productivity is greater in markets with higher levels of innovation, capital stock, manufacturing and urbanization. In light of the results of our analysis, we discuss a number of policy implications.     

Exploring China's Potential Child Poverty

This paper estimates child poverty in China using 20IS data from the China Household Income Project.Applying the Alkire-Foster drawer approach,we constructed a multidimensional poverty indicator system that accounted for multiple factors contributing to a child's development and well-being,based on which we estimated multidimensional poverty experienced by children.Children s poverty varied by age,gender,rural/urban settings,and geographic region.By extending the Alkire-Foster drawer approach,two important features of child poverty in China were found,which had normally been neglected by per capita poverty measures:poor children in nonpoor families and unequal allocations to different children within the same families.The results showed that more than 40 percent of multidimensionally poor children lived in nonpoor families.Unequal resource allocation within families was observed in half of the families.These two features of child poverty require more policy attention and the Chinese government should prioritize addressing multidimensional child poverty.     

Budget Structure and Pollution Control： A Cross-country Analysis and Implications for China

In the published literature, the differences in environmental performance across countries are typically explained using the Environmental Kuznets Curve. The Environmental Kuznets Curve states that pollution initially increases with economic growth. Once GDP per capita reaches a certain level, the relationship reverses. In the present paper, we provide an alternative hypothesis, where budget structure plays an important role in explaining the variations in pollution across the world.＂ the lower the business-related taxes as a share of total tax revenue, the higher the property tax in total tax revenue and the higher the ratio of public health expenditure in total expenditure, then the stronger the incentive of pollution control and the lower the pollution level. Our empirical findings reveal that the budget structure does have an important impact on pollution control. The policy implication of this research is that effective control of environmental pollution requires changes in tax structure and expenditure assignment. This research has important policy implications for China ＂s tax system reform and pollution control efforts.     

中国农村基本健康保障体系的重组

I. IntroductionDuring the two decades since the end of the 1970s, China's market-oriented economicreform has exerted a robust effect in improving the overall efficiency of the national economyas manifested in rapid economic growth. This achievement is also seen in an apparentincome increase for the entire Chinese population and a dramatic reduction in poverty.However, the process of introducing market mechanisms has also engendered a wideningrural-urban gap, increasing regional disparities an…     

Regional Inequalities and Its Determinants in Rural China：An Empirical Study Based on Agricultural Household Level Data

Using 1000 agricultural household survey data in 2002, this paper employs Gini coefficient and the Theft index to explore the regional inequalities and its determinants in rural China. We first measure the overall rural income inequality, and then decompose it by region and by factor （source of income） respectively. Third, we construct an econometric model to analyze the determinants affecting the income inequality indexes. Our main finding is that although Gini coefficient and Theft index is at a normal level, we need to point out that there exists a risk that the income inequality may climb up with the misbalanced growth of regional economy without taking adequate policy into account. At the end of this paper, policy suggestion is given： governments should offer more financial support for the less developed rural areas, where income level is quite low. An alternative choice is to enhance the transfer payment for the low-income people, and help them to get access to profitable economic project. In the long run, it is especially important to strengthen the farmers＇ professional training, and to increase their migrant ability to nonagricultural career.     

China＇s Regional Disparity and Its Policy Responses

The fruits of China＇s rapid economic development over the 3 decades have not been distributed fairly across different regions. Using data from a sample of 815 Chinese listed firrns during 1998-2004, our error-correction investment model showes evidence of different financial constraints on firms＇ investment in different regions. We argue that China＇s regional development policies have contributed greatly to the regional inequalities. To control the rising inequality, China has shifted its focus from the coast to the interior regions. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the government to direct the economy, as market mechanisms now have afar greater influence on the economy than the government does. The people-centered approach of the current leadership has meant that substantial attention has been placed on regional development disparities in an attempt to build a ＂harmonious society. ＂ China needs further extensive reforms if all the measures for reducing regional disparity are to be effective.     

Discrepancy between Registered and Actual Unemployment Rates in China： An Investigation inProvincial Capital Cities

The unemployment rate is a key indicator of labor market and economic performance. Based on a unique survey, we estimate the unemployment rate at 13.44percent in 30 provincial capital cities in China in 2007, which is well above the officially announced registered unemployment rate. The discrepancy results from inaccuracy in the calculation of registered unemployment. The discrepancy is not stably evolving across regions or over the years, making it difficult to recover the true unemployment rate using a simple multiplier approach. We further investigate the sources of the discrepancy by examining the determinants of unemployment registration. It is evident that participation in certain public activities, which would facilitate the spread of knowledge related to job-searching and unemployment registration, encouraged unemployment registration. Social attention to government antiunemployment programs also encouraged unemployment registration. These findings confirm the behavioral hypothesis that incomplete knowledge and limited attention can cause deviation from optimal choice. The policy implications of the findings of the study are discussed.     

The Rise of China's Global Middle Class in an International Context

We estimate the size of the global middle class in China and 33 other countries and analyze China’s expanding middle class in an international context.The“ghbal middle class”is defined in terms of being neither poor nor rich in the developed world.China’s global middle class has grown rapidly and has been catching up with the middle class in developed countries.By 2018 China’s global middle class constituted 25 percent of China s population;in absolute size it was nearly double the size of the global middle class in the US and was similar in size to that of Europe.Cross-country analysis of the relationship between the middle-class share of the total population and GDP per capita reveals an inverted-U pattern.China is not an outlier from the cross-country pattern but the speed with which its middle-class has expanded is unusual.The only other countries with similarly large,rapid expansions of the middle class are transition economies.     

Long-Term Development Trend of China’s Economy and Importance of the Circular Economy

In 2003, China’seconomy grew at a rateof over 9 percent with per capita GDP hittingUS$ 1,090 for the first time, which means that China’s economy and socialdevelopment have entered a high-growth cycle characterized by rapid structuralchanges. However, this round of high growth is based on resources and an ecologicalenvironment completely different from those of twenty five years ago. Based on ananalysis of the new features of future economic development in China, as well as theresource an…     

Changing Engines of Growth in China： From Exports, FDI and Marketization to Innovation and Exports

This paper investigates the changing sources of growth in post-reform China. Using crossprovince regressions, this paper finds that, in earlier periods, exports, foreign direct investment and marketization were significantly related to per capita income growth, whereas＇ since the late 1990s, foreign direct investment and marketization have lost their significance and have been replaced by new sources of growth, such as innovation and knowledge, with only exports continuing to be important. This finding is robust after controlling for other variables representing other economic policies and provincial characteristics. We also tackle the possible endogeneity of innovation variables using the instrumental variables estimation method.