Critical issues suggested by trends in food,population, and the environment to the year 2020

This article reviews the emerging trends in global food supply and demand up to 2020, and discusses policy challenges and obstacles to meeting this demand. Data were obtained from the International Food Policy Research Institute's International Model for Policy Analysis of Commodities and Trade (Rosegrant et al.). The country-specific data pertains to 37 countries and regions and 17 food commodities and prices in the world market. Cereal prices are expected to decline by about 11% by 2020; meat prices may decline by 6%. After 2010, cereal prices are expected to dramatically decline. Cereal demand will change with changes in income and urbanization. Maize and coarse grains will be replaced by wheat and rice. Life style changes may lead to a switch from rice to wheat. Growth in food consumption in developed countries will slow. A projected 82% of growth in global cereal consumption and almost 90% of increased global meat demand will occur in developing countries during 1993-2020. Asia alone will account for 48% of increased cereal consumption and 61% of increased meat consumption. 88% of food production growth will occur in developing countries through increased yields and 94% in developed countries. World trade in cereals will increase from an estimated 185 million metric tons annually to 328 million during 1993-2020. Food security for the poor and child malnutrition will remain unimproved. Yield growth is affected by agricultural research, fertilizer and energy use, land degradation, water scarcity, and bad policy. Water scarcity is the most limiting on yield growth. Malnutrition problems present multiple challenges.     

Implications of high food prices for poverty in Pakistan

The study estimates the impacts of rising world food prices on poverty in rural and urban areas of Pakistan. Household income and expenditure data for 2004/2005 is used to estimate compensated and uncompensated price and expenditure elasticities using the linear approximation of the almost ideal demand system. Taking the unexpected component of higher domestic food prices in 2007/2008, own and cross price compensated elasticities are used to derive the changes in the quantity consumed, food expenditure and impacts on poverty assuming the food crisis happened in 2004/2005. The results indicate that poverty increased by 34.8%, severely affecting the urban areas where poverty increased by 44.6% as compared to 32.5% in rural areas. The estimates show that 2.3 million people are unable to reach even one‐half of poverty line expenditures while another 13.7 million are just below and 23.9 million are just above the poverty line. In the short run, it is important to ensure food availability to these people. In the long run, the policy environment of subsidizing urban food consumers by keeping wheat prices lower than the international price, needs to be reconsidered to provide the right incentives to increase food availability.     

Implications of the global growth slowdown for rural poverty

Over the past 25 years, higher growth in developing countries has contributed to a dramatic fall in global poverty, although poverty rates in rural areas remain higher than in urban areas. Unfortunately, projected growth rates have fallen in recent years; this article examines the impact of this slowdown on the poor, particularly the rural poor. It first uses a global model to assess the impacts of lower productivity on key price and income variables. It then uses microsimulation models for almost 300,000 households to assess the impacts on their real incomes. Although poverty rates overall are projected to fall substantially, the poorest countries see the greatest slowdown in poverty reduction, with over 5% of their population projected to remain below the poverty line. In addition, poverty rates will remain alarmingly high in many countries. Overall, 38 million fewer people will leave extreme poverty compared to earlier projections. Farm households are at particular risk in middle‐income countries, with over 1.5% more of the farming population remaining trapped in poverty than previously estimated. By 2030, average extreme poverty in rural areas is projected at about 7.5%, rather than 7.1% under the earlier growth projections. Clearly, a strong focus on policies for poverty reduction will be vital for eliminating poverty by 2030.     

Public agricultural R&D over the past half century: an emerging new world order

Recent trends in farm productivity and food prices raise concerns about whether the era of global agricultural abundance is over. Agricultural R&D is a crucial determinant of agricultural productivity and production, and therefore food prices and poverty. In this article, we present entirely new evidence on investments in public agricultural R&D worldwide as an indicator of the prospects for agricultural productivity growth over the coming decades. The agricultural R&D world is changing, and in ways that will definitely affect future global patterns of poverty, hunger, and other outcomes. The overall picture is one in which the middle‐income countries are growing in relative importance as producers of agricultural innovations through investments in R&D, and have consequently better prospects as producers of agricultural products.     

Prospects for food security in the 21st Century: with special emphasis on Africa

Food security for the world in 2025 is possible and probable if the right set of things are done, starting now. But the task will not be easy. It is both a technology and a political/economic challenge. The challenge for sub-Saharan Africa is even greater. While other regions improved per capita food availability over the last 30 years, Africa's availability declined. But food security is about more than supply. It is also about access which means income generating employment is critical. Meeting future requirements in Africa and the world will require sustainable intensification of complex production systems, appropriate national and international policies and continued investments in agricultural research. Without these conditions and increased employment intensive growth, prospects for the future are less bright.     

Navigating the perfect storm: reflections on the food,energy, and financial crises

The closely interlinked food, energy, and financial crises pose a significant new challenge to the global effort to reduce poverty. In 2008, food prices rose sharply in many countries, and global poverty and hunger levels increased quite markedly. The good news is that the agricultural supply response in many countries was also strong. The impacts of the financial crisis on poor countries have yet to fully roll out, but it is clear that more people have fallen into poverty and more are suffering from hunger. Lastly, there are strong indications that the global food system is fundamentally changing in a number of dimensions. Biofuels are here to stay, and energy and food prices appear to have adjusted to a higher equilibrium and will in turn raise the prospects of renewed volatility in agricultural commodity markets. Trade protection has also resurfaced, but so have renewed investments in agriculture. These fundamental shifts bring with them opportunities and risks that require internationally coordinated responses with strong national buy‐in, as well as timely and relevant research.     

An econometric analysis of rice consumption in the People's Republic of China

Rice is the most important staple food in the People's Republic of China (PRO. In many Asian countries rice appears to have become an inferior good, with income increases leading to declines in per capita consumption as other food products are substituted for rice. In this study, human rice consumption is analyzed with a model that allows income elasticities to vary with income levels. An additional equation accounting for rice disappearance as seed, livestock feed, industrial uses and exports is also estimated. The results of the analysis indicate that rice has become an inferior good in China and per capita consumption is likely to decline in the future. Population growth and the growing use of rice for other purposes means that total rice disappearance will continue to increase although at a rate that is slower than has historically been the case. The predicted changes in rice consumption will create pressures to adjust production and trade patterns for rice as well as other agricultural products.     

Food price increases and net food importing countries: lessons from the recent past

Recent increases in food and other commodity prices have highlighted concerns that many poor countries are net food importers and higher food prices would worsen their trade balances. In this article, we analyze the changes in food trade balances associated with the 32% increase in food prices from 2000/2001 to 2004/2005. We find a small deterioration in food trade balances of low‐income countries and an improvement in middle‐income countries. The deterioration is most severe for countries in conflict and small island states, so attention should be placed first on these countries and on a few very‐low‐income countries that are also vulnerable. Because low‐income countries as a group had much lower agricultural GDP growth rates than middle‐income countries, the answers to food vulnerability in low‐income countries should probably be addressed within the context of incentives for agricultural production.     

But it came from a food pantry: Product stigma and quality perceptions of food pantry offerings

Among the millions of food insecure people in high income countries, only a modest fraction uses food pantries. Stigma is commonly cited as a barrier to use and may arise due to the perceived low product quality of pantry offerings. This study tests the hypothesis that “product stigma” is present among prospective pantry clients. In an online experimental survey of low-income respondents, we ask participants to evaluate food items under four different treatments. In a two-by-two randomized design, in one dimension they are told the food is from a grocery store or from a food pantry, and in the other dimension they are or are not provided with photos of the food items, in some cases indicating a popular brand. The study finds that respondents exhibit a negative perception of the quality of food from a pantry, but that perception is largely offset when they are shown an informative visual depiction of that food. The effect of brand information is explored in a second online experimental survey and found to be an important component of consumer perception, partly mitigating the product stigma effect of food pantry offerings, but less so than a photo does. Results suggest that food banks and food pantries may combat product stigma through marketing that uses photos, brand names, or both to depict the quality of the products they offer. Such interventions may encourage current users to visit more frequently and needy non-users to visit at all.     

Toward a green revolution in Africa: what would it achieve,and what would it require?

The current global food crisis has reemphasized the costliness of Africa's failure to achieve food security and poverty reduction. The instrument by which other more successful developing countries achieved these outcomes was a “Green Revolution” in agriculture. While previous research has provided largely discursive appraisals of the viability of an African Green Revolution, this article adopts a more rigorous methodology to address that question. First, an economy‐wide multimarket model, augmented with existing poverty–growth elasticities, is developed to assess the likely impacts of a rapid acceleration in food production (of the kind witnessed in previous Green Revolutions) on food prices, consumption and demand, farmer revenue, and poverty. Our results suggest that a rapid growth in staple production, together with more integrated regional markets, would reduce food prices by roughly 20–40% for consumers and 10–20% for producers among the major crops. This translates into a large rise in farm revenues, annual agricultural growth rates of 6.5% or higher, broader income growth and food security, and over 70 million Africans being lifted out of poverty. The article concludes by emphasizing the kinds of fundamental policy actions and resources that would be required for achieving these outcomes.     

Food production and population growth

Governments have frequently ignored the issue of population consumption exceeding the rates of renewal of natural resources. At the UN Conference on the Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, the issue of population growth was ignored in the agenda and action plan. In 1974, the UN World Population Conference suggested population stability would be possible if standards of living were raised. Industrialized nations spent half a century of active interference with the stability of global populations and failed to slow growth. 27 countries, mainly in tropical and subtropical zones, have an average cereal yield of under 1 ton per hectare, when improved seed and basic minimum fertilizer could yield 2 tons per hectare. Efforts to increase yields by the Consultative Group for International Agricultural research in 13 international centers resulted in global annual increases of about 50 million tons of grain (wheat and rice). Rainfed agriculture did not benefit as much because of climatic conditions. Where varieties of triticale, sorghum, millet, groundnuts, chick peas, cowpeas, beans, and cassava have helped increase food production, population growth has outstripped the gains. Agricultural fertilizers have been unfairly blamed for soil nutrient losses. Because of the age structure of population, the expected population growth can only be addressed through development of higher yields, new strains resistant to disease, and fertilizers. Slow release phosphates for tropical soils are needed. Shortages of domestic fuel divert much needed farmyard manure and composted crop residues. About 400 million tons of dung are thus wasted annually; food grain harvests are thus reduced by 14 million tons. About 50% of the 1133 million poorest people will live in Asia and another 25% will live in Sub-Saharan Africa, living on a total degraded area of 1219 million hectares. Imbalance between food supply and population need to be addressed on an effective international scale.     

Changing food consumption patterns in rural and urban Vietnam: Implications for a future food supply system

Rapid income growth and urbanisation could significantly change the composition of the food basket in many emerging economies. This study estimates a demand system, including 15 major food items in Vietnam, with multiyear household survey data. We find a large variation in the estimated price elasticities (–0.05 to –0.88) and expenditure elasticities (–0.16 to 2.56). Food types, urban status and income groups can explain this variation. We also find that the staple food, rice, is already an inferior good for rich urban households in Vietnam. Moreover, food preferences are evolving away from rice but towards animal proteins (fish, pork, chicken, eggs and milk), fruits and vegetables, irrespective of urban status and income groups. As the Vietnam economy continues to grow with a doubling of gross domestic product (GDP) in the next decade, per capita rice consumption in both urban and rural areas and across different income groups will continue to decline, whereas demand for other high‐value products will rise. Thus, government policy should focus on encouraging demand‐oriented food production. In addition, crop diversification at the farm level needs to improve substantially to meet the rising demand for these food products due to income growth and urbanisation.     

Trade,policy, and food security

Food insecurity is extensive throughout the world and hunger and malnutrition are expected to remain serious humanitarian and political concerns, both in the short term and for the foreseeable future, particularly in low income developing countries where many rural and urban households are both income and asset poor. In those countries, domestic agricultural production is expected to be especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change over the next 30 years. Thus international markets for staple agricultural commodities, which have become increasingly important as sources of nutrition for both developing and developed countries over the past 60 years, are likely to become even more important in the future. Free trade policies allow countries to exploit their comparative advantages in economic activity, increasing average per capita incomes, longer term growth rates and a country's capacity to fund social safety nets for the poor. However, many countries abandoned those policies in favor of domestic protections in their efforts to mitigate the effects of short run food crises. The policy challenge is therefore to resolve the tension between optimal long run policies and short run initiatives to address food security concerns.     

The impact of population growth and climate change on food security in Africa: looking ahead to 2050

Providing nutritious and environmentally sustainable food to all people at all times is one of the greatest challenges currently facing society. This problem is particularly acute in Africa where an estimated one in four people still lack adequate food to sustain an active and healthy life. In this study, we consider the potential impact of future population growth and climate change on food security in Africa, looking ahead to 2050. A modelling framework termed FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation) was used which was characterized to model the impacts of future climate changes (utilizing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios projections) and projected population growth on food availability and subsequent undernourishment prevalence in 44 African countries. Our results indicate that projected rapid population growth will be the leading cause of food insecurity and widespread undernourishment across Africa. Very little to no difference in undernourishment projections were found when we examined future scenarios with and without the effects of climate change, suggesting population growth is the dominant driver of change. Various adaptation options are discussed, such as closing the yield gap via sustainable intensification and increasing imports through trade and aid agreements. These strategies are likely to be critical in preventing catastrophic future food insecurity.     

Ex Ante Welfare Analysis of Technological Change: The Case of Nitrogen Efficient Maize for African Soils

This study evaluates the potential impacts of the Improved Maize for African Soils (IMAS) project in two countries of Africa: Kenya and South Africa. The IMAS varieties offer significant yield advantages for regions where low or no fertilizer is used. The analysis uses spatial production data and household data to account for the level of fertilizer use in different agroecological zones of the country as well as different types of maize producing households. Results suggest that IMAS will deliver a total of US$586 million in gross benefits with US$136 million and US$100 million of benefits to producers in Kenya and South Africa, respectively, and an additional US$112 million to consumers in Kenya and US$238 million to consumers in South Africa. These benefits could help more than 1 million people escape poverty in the two countries by 2025. Household level results suggest that small households in areas with relatively low levels of fertilizer use stand to gain significant benefits.     

Effects of an animal disease shock on meat markets and producer income

This paper simulates pig producer and slaughterhouse income losses due to a classical swine fever outbreak in Finland. The analysis explicitly takes into account that an outbreak of a highly contagious animal disease can shrink export demand for pig meat. After having observed the disease and its impact on pig meat price, producers can optimize animal stocks thought insemination decisions, which affects the number of animals in a dynamic manner. The income losses of pig industry were estimated to be less than €30 million. The losses were mainly due to price movements caused by an export demand shock. The results suggest that if the outbreak causes distortions in meat trade, the disease can cause substantial losses to the industry even if it has directly a small impact on the number of animals on farms. We also found that the optimization could reduce disease losses significantly, even more than 50%.     

Consumer Behaviour in a Country in Transition with a Strongly Contracting Economy: The Case of Food Consumption in Bulgaria

This paper presents estimates of demand elasticities in Bulgaria using the Almost Ideal Demand system while using interval priors for the parameters. Expenditure elasticities are found to be considerably higher than unity for food items. These results are interpreted as being due to a substantial divergence between consumption and expenditure on food items. It is concluded that under conditions of falling incomes, policies which focus exclusively on food provision may not be appropriate. In the event of a return to income growth, an initial increase in demand for selected food items could outstrip the potential to increase domestic supply, and lead to an increase in imports, or decrease in exports, of a number of agricultural products.     

Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China

This study uses resource‐based measures to explore the evolution of China's demand and supply for food. China's dietary shift from plant to animal‐based foods, induced by its income growth, is likely to impose considerable pressure on agricultural resources. China's demand for food on this measure appears consistent with global trends, while China is an out‐performer on the supply side, producing much more food than its income level and land endowment would predict. China's current per capita income is in a range where consumption growth is high and in excess of production growth, but the gap between supply and demand is likely to diminish as population and per capita consumption growth decelerate. Continuing agricultural productivity growth and sustainable resource management will be important influences on the growth of China's future net import demand for food.     

山东省莱州市大菱鲆养殖经济效益评估

大菱鲆养殖是我国北斱沿海重要的海水鱼养殖产业乊一,具有巨大的经济效益。本文采用市场价值法等相兲斱法评估了莱州市大菱鲆养殖产业的年收入及饵料、电费、鱼苗、鱼药成本等相兲支出项目,为合理评估大菱鲆养殖的经济效益提供参考。经过计算,莱州市大菱鲆养殖产业年可实现销售收入6.53亿元,年均各项成本支出总和为4.5亿元。年利润2.03亿元,利润率为31.09%。各项成本支出中,饵料、电费、鱼苗费、鱼药费和固定资本折旧费依次为2.2亿元、1.23亿元、0.73亿元、0.09亿元和0.25亿元,占总成本的比例分别为49%、27.3%、16.2%、2%和5.5%。