对外贸易、区域间贸易与地区专业化

本文回顾了中国地区对外贸易发展及其对区域间贸易和地区专业化影响的相关文献。现有研究的主要结论总结如下。首先,在国际分工和FDI等因素的驱动下,中国地区对外贸易增长呈现非平衡高速增长特征。其次,对外贸易促进了区域间贸易发展,影响着区域间贸易的流量和流向。再次,通过产业空间转移和结构转换,对外贸易推动了地区专业化和产业集聚,是沿海与内地之间差异的重要来源。最后,地区对外贸易开放对区域市场一体化的影响呈现“先抑后扬”的U型特征,区域市场一体化反过来也影响着地区对外贸易行为。     

产业内贸易、产业结构差异与中美贸易摩擦——与中日贸易摩擦的比较分析

本文通过对1995~2009年间中美、中日制造业产业内贸易进行统计上的比较,结合中美、中日贸易摩擦的状况,进一步证实产业内贸易水平与贸易摩擦之间的反向关系。产业结构的差异对中美、中日制造业产业内贸易发展有较大的影响,实证结果表明,人均消费差异、产业规模差异以及经济外向度差异与两者产业内贸易呈负相关,而对华FDI与两者产业内贸易呈正相关,但影响的强弱则大有区别。只有缩小中美两国之间的产业结构差异,才能有效提高中美产业内贸易水平,并逐步减少中美贸易摩擦。     

贸易依存度、贸易差额与中国的金融稳定性

20世纪90年代,特别是2001年加入世界贸易组织以来,中国对外贸易取得了很大的进步.从理论上说,对外贸易流量同时形成了与之相对应的金融流量,因而在贸易与金融之间形成了相互影响和作用的渠道.中国持续走高的对外贸易依存度、贸易顺差与中国金融体系的稳定性之间存在着什么样的影响途径及相互关系,是一个值得我们关注的重要课题.     

贸易方式、生产控制与加工贸易企业转型升级

加工贸易企业生产控制方式是企业转型升级的基础,它不仅同加工贸易方式有关,更与所有制性质有关。从全国加工贸易发展模式看,存在着苏州模式、东莞模式和晋江模式,其中以苏州模式为主,由此基本决定了加工贸易企业的转型路径,但是也并不排斥拥有销售权的民营企业在加工贸易转型升级中的作用。     

Trade, Institutions, and Credit

Within economics there has been a mounting interest in institutions. Virtually all the work to date on institutions has examined a single institution. The problem is that in many settings the performance of the institution under examination is affected by other, unexamined institutions. This paper examines the relationship between two types of private-order institutions that facilitated trade in a specific setting—Mexican California during the 1830s and 1840s. The surviving evidence suggests that a multilateral institution enabled merchants to extend credit to their retail customers, and a similar multilateral institution enabled the merchants to extend credit to one another. The relationship between these institutions makes them of particular interest. This relationship arose because local communities imposed costs on merchants that affected their trade with one another. The barriers to entry and exit posed by these costs, in turn, facilitated the operation and persistence of the institution that supported intermerchant trade. They also precluded other organizational forms such as the vertical integration of wholesalers.     

外贸结构、外贸安全与经济发展

全球化是一把双刃剑,在受益于全球化的同时,开放国家特别是发展中国家也面临着如何在全球经济的浪潮中趋利避害、防范经济风险的严峻挑战。本文在对外贸结构与外贸安全、国内经济发展的关系进行理论分析的基础上,对英国和日本经济的历史变迁进行了经验分析。     

贸易摩擦、贸易壁垒与中国对外直接投资研究

本文利用中国与90个国家之间的面板数据,对贸易壁垒与对外直接投资进行实证分析后表明,贸易壁垒对中国对外直接投资具有两种效应:一是空间效应,即对中国实施贸易壁垒的国家较未实施的国家会显著引发中国对该国的对外直接投资;二是时间效应,贸易壁垒实施5～7年后将显著诱发中国对外直接投资。     

Trade liberalization,wages, and specialization in China

This paper studies the evolution of regional specialization in China in response to trade liberalization. Using a panel of Chinese export data at the detailed commodity level over the period of 1988–2006, we show that China’s regional specialization follows a U-shaped pattern: both the interior and coastal regions diversify from 1988 to 1994 but specialize during the later reform period of 1994–2006. A theory of tariff reductions is proposed by constructing the Dornbusch–Fischer–Samuelson (1977) continuum of goods Ricardian model in a setup of two countries and three regions. The U-shaped pattern of specialization can be obtained from foreign tariff reductions followed by Chinese tariff reductions. This finding is supported by simulations, US–China trade policy review, and the pattern of China’s coast–inland wage ratio.     

Trade Costs,Trade Balances and Current Accounts: An Application of Gravity to Multilateral Trade

In this paper we test the well-known hypothesis of Obstfeld and Rogoff (NBER Macroeconomics Annual 7777:339–390, 2000) that trade costs are the key to explaining the so-called Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Our approach has a number of novel features. First, we focus on the interrelationship between trade costs, the trade account and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Second, we use the gravity model to estimate the effect of trade costs on bilateral trade and, third, we show how bilateral trade can be used to draw inferences about desired trade balances and desired intertemporal trade. Our econometric results provide strong support for the Obstfeld and Rogoff hypothesis and we are also able to reconcile our results with the so-called home bias puzzle.

Trade, technology spillovers, and food production in China

Trade, Technology Spillovers, and Food Production in China. — This paper studies technology spillovers between China and other countries, international trade in inputs being the prime carrier of knowledge in agricultural production. Human capital characteristics and structural characteristics of the agricultural production sys-tems determine the local usability of foreign knowledge for Chinese farmers. The authors utilize a multi-region applied general equilibrium model to analyze Chinese opportunities to benefit from foreign technology improvements in grain production. It is shown that possible negative welfare effects of unilateral trade liberalization of China against North American imports of agricultural inputs may be more than compensated by productivity gains if technology spillovers are included.     

中亚五国的贸易分布、对外投资与贸易政策

丝绸之路经济带建设充分说明了我国与中亚五国合作的重要意义。本文通过对中亚五国的贸易分布、对外投资与贸易政策的分析发现,中亚五国的主要贸易伙伴是中国和俄罗斯;其外国直接投资表现为净流入;其贸易政策的本质是以贸易优惠吸引外资流入。为此,我国今后在与中亚五国经贸合作中器重视其贸易政策的本质。     

Trade,aid and national development in Africa

Trade is crucial for economic growth, with exports providing earnings to finance imports. Trade also promotes investments and knowledge transfer. Trading countries exploit their comparative advantages to promote self-sufficiency, which is obviously better than dependence on foreign aid, whether low interest-bearing loans or transfer payments. All aid comes with some kind of conditionality attached, amounting to substantial burdens that often outweigh possible benefits. Donors often replace the administrative machinery of recipient governments, undermining their sovereignty and autonomy. These governments then struggle to extricate themselves from implied commitments to donors and prevent donor governments interfering in their domestic affairs. This paper looks at Africa's poor trade performance, arguing that among the consequences are the continent's continuing dependence on foreign aid and the accompanying burdensome negative sentiments from the rest of the world. It recommends that the new African programme New Partnership for Africa's Development be developed to a full economic integration to expand the regional markets.     

中美贸易争端、贸易剩余分配与贸易平衡

中美贸易关系是WTO安排下的委托—代理关系,双方贸易争端、贸易剩余分配、贸易不均衡缺口、中美和世界福利由中美成本因素、汇率、联合风险偏好、双边贸易不确定性和贸易相关性等五大因素内生决定。在五大因素约束下,中美贸易争端是贸易剩余分配而不是固定分配的争端,是实现双边贸易剩余分配合约修订的手段和反馈机制;贸易剩余分配是争端的目标和激励力量,贸易不平衡作为双边贸易博弈的结果以及争端启动和剩余分配调节的显示信号,指示着双边争端变动的方向。根据本文模型,中美五大因素对双边贸易争端、贸易剩余分配、贸易不平衡、中美与世界福利的影响具有非对称性和不确定性,具体影响依赖双方五大因素的状态组合。模型模拟表明,人民币汇率升值将严重损害中国和世界贸易福利而美国则因此受益,因此美国有继续扩大贸易争端和期待人民币升值的激励,中国将面临来自美方更大的贸易争端压力。     

Trade Reform in Indonesia, 1987–95

This paper quantifies Indonesian trade liberalisation between 1987 and 1995 as measured by changes in real effective rates of protection (RERP), i e effective rates of protection corrected for trade policy-induced changes in wages. The RERP for manufacturing, including oil refining, fell from 27% in 1987 to 11% in 1995, for manufacturing, excluding oil refining, the fall was from 59% to 16%, and for agriculture from 9% to 4% The standard deviation of RERPs for all tradeable sectors fell from 42 percentage points to 26; and for manufacturing, excluding oil refining, from 102 percentage points to 39.