美国商业房地产复苏的实证分析及趋势判断

美国商业房地产特别是多家庭住房是支撑本轮经济复苏的重要力量。商业房地产中公寓楼空置率最低且下降最快,但需求扩张力度在减缓。商业抵押恢复较为缓陵,收缩幅度呈缩小趋势,可能成为继多家庭抵押之后房地产复苏支撑力量。商业房地产复苏有相当强的联邦政府支持背景,机构和GSE支持抵押池、国民存款机构和私人养老基金的抵押对商业房地产复苏的支撑力度在逐渐加大。商业和多家庭抵押的信用风险状况改善较快。未来商业房地产价格呈上升趋势,但公寓楼价格升势可能减缓。商业房地产销售缓慢增长;多家庭住房销售呈扩张趋势,但势头逐渐减缓。多家庭租房空置率降势在下半年可能转为缓升势头;住房开工扩张势头开始减缓,明年可能平稳或发生变化。商业抵押呈波动式缓良扩张态势;多家庭抵押持续扩张势头减缓,明年下半年可能逆转。商业房地产抵押贷款支持证券（CMBS）发行扩张,但余额扩张缓陵。商业抵押、商业银行商业抵押以及CMBS的拖欠率继续下降各级CMBS的风险利差可能平稳波动或缓慢趋高。商业房地产市场的活跃程度可能略有加强,明年商业房地产整体情况将略好于今年。     

我国城镇化高速发展期面临的若干挑战

作者认为 ,今后 2 0年将是中国城镇化高速发展时期 ,中国将面临以下挑战 :片面的城镇化率决定论导致过度城市化 ;大城市摊大饼式发展孕育严重的城市病 ;城市间的恶性竞争愈演愈烈 ;各类园区与大城市空间有序扩展脱节 ;城市防灾功能衰退 ,人居环境恶化 ;交通拥堵 ,市民出行日益困难 ;投资渠道分散 ,小城镇增长乏力 ;中小城市缺乏核心竞争力 ,城市功能不健全 ;城市风貌千城一面 ,特色丧失 ,建筑风格单一 ;城市居民收入差距日益扩大 ,就业率低 ,犯罪率上升 ;必要的基础设施严重短缺和形象工程过多同时存在 ;违法建筑屡禁不止 ,城乡结合部混乱不堪 ,等。对以上问题的成因进行了分析 ,提出了基本对策。     

职业动机模型及其应用

人们在选择从事某个职业时,心理经历了两个过程,即职业认同和努力意愿,这两个过程缺一不可,没有了职业认同,就没有了努力意愿的基础。而努力意愿是职业动机中的关键一步,没有了努力意愿,也就谈不上在职业活动的积极性和创造性。     

The Role of Information in Building Reputation in an Investment/Trust Game

This article analyses the role of information in building reputation in an investment/trust game. The model allows for information asymmetry in a finitely repeated sender–receiver game and solves for sequential equilibrium to show that if there are some trustworthy managers who always disclose their private information and choose to return a fair proportion of the firm's income as dividend to the investor, then a rational manager will mimic such behaviour in an attempt to earn a reputation for being trustworthy. The rational manager will mimic with probability 1 in the early periods of the game. The investor, too, will invest with probability 1 in these periods. However, in the later periods, the rational manager will mimic with a certain probability strictly less than 1. The probability will be such that it will make the investor indifferent between investing and not investing, and he, in turn, will invest with a probability (strictly less than 1) that will make the rational manager indifferent between mimicking and not mimicking; that is, the game will begin with pure-strategy play but will switch to mixed-strategy play. There is one exception, though: when the investor's ex ante beliefs about the manager's trustworthiness are exceptionally high, the game will continue in a pure strategy, and the switch to mixed-strategy play will never occur. Identical results obtain if the manager's choice of whether to share his private information with the investor is replaced by exogenously imposed information sharing.     

Total quality improvement

External customers are those who come to the institution to use the services. If these people are not satisfied, the institution will not be accredited, patients will not return, and the institution will receive bad press--thus hurting the institution's image--and physicians will go to other institutions. Patients certainly are looking for value for their dollar in receiving quality services. Third party payors measure and set prices on services rendered. Conservation of resources is the focal point of the modern health care industry. TQI is a vehicle that will bring major departments together to focus on these issues. When department heads are given the power to make decisions and the ability to negotiate with other departments, much headway will be made. Coordination of goals and the understanding of other departmental issues will allow for multidisciplinary decision making that will affect the institution's future.     

Dynamic advertising and pricing with constant demand elasticities

In this paper we analyze a stochastic dynamic advertising and pricing model with isoelastic demand. The state space is discrete, time is continuous and the planing horizon is allowed to be finite or infinite. A dynamic version of the Dorfman–Steiner identity will be derived. Explicit expressions of the optimal advertising and pricing policies, of the value function and of the optimal advertising expenditures will be given. The general results will be used to analyze the case of impatient customers. Furthermore, particular time inhomogeneous models and homogeneous ones with and without discounting will be examined. We will study the social efficiency of a monopolist's optimal policies and the consequences of specific subsidies. From a buyer's perspective, our analysis reveals that waiting – when looking at (immediate) expected prices – is never profitable should two or more units be available. But we will also prove that the sequence of average sales prices is monotone decreasing. Moreover, the techniques applied to solve the discrete stochastic advertising and pricing problem will be used to solve a related deterministic control problem with continuous state space.     

自回归模型在实践中的问题分析

自回归模型是一种被广泛使用的计量经济模型，但在实践中通常会引起多重共线性，从而导致外生解释变量的系数发生较大变化，一些变量不再显著，模型失去经济意义。本文首先分析这些现象是如何发生的，然后通过一个典型的例子给予说明，最后提出了改进模型的建议。     

延长退休年龄能降低个人账户养老金的财政补助吗？

本文运用精算模型发现,当女性退休年龄延长至60岁,2039年及以前个人账户养老金的财政补助较现行政策下降0.3%至9.83%,但2040年及以后上升0.44%至4.67%;当男女退休年龄延长至65岁和60岁,2037年及以前财政补助较现行政策有所降低,但2038年及以后不断提高;当男女退休年龄均延长至65岁,2040年及以前财政补助较现行政策有所减少,但2041年及以后不断增加;即使改变任一参数设置,类似情况仍会出现。所以,延长退休年龄只能减少25至28年个人账户养老金的财政补助,之后政府负担逐年加重。     

基于三螺旋的创意城市研究——以苏州工业园区为例

创意经济是世界经济社会高度发展的产物,创意产业在国家或城市经济发展中所占的比重将会越来越大。Florida的3T理论认为技术、人才和宽容是创意城市必不可少的三要素,三螺旋创新模式的正确运用将进一步增强创意城市三要素,提高城市创意指数,从而为中国发展创意城市提供理论依据。     

工控系统感性负载所引起的干扰及其抗干扰设计

由于工业现场存在着大量的感性负载,如交、直流继电器、接触器、变压器和交直流电磁铁等,当对其进行投切操作时,会在电感线圈的两端产生极高反向电动势,引起强烈的高频电磁干扰,而且会使触点间隙产生电弧击穿,并通过传导作用而施于电源侧的计算机,严重影响附近工作的计算机控制系统的正常运行。     

城市拆迁中的维权博弈

首先依据外部性原理和博弈论方法,构建了被拆迁人维权行为博弈模型,并对此进行了分析.研究表明,增加对被拆迁人的补偿比加大对拆迁人惩罚力度的效果要好;政府行政执法机关积极履行职责,要比被动查处拆迁人的侵权来保护被拆迁人的合法权益成本更低.最后,据此提出了建议.     

浅谈软件无线电技术及其应用

软件无线电是将硬件作为无线通信的基本通用平台,用软件实现尽可能多的无线通信功能。它被视为继模拟和数字技术后的又一次电子技术革命。未来理想的网络将是一个统一网络,这个网络会容纳多种协议与标准,将对各种传播环境与物理介质进行适应,还有更加开放的接口需要其来提供,所以软件无线电将会有更加广阔的发展前景。     

Hospitals and material management in the coming decade

The 1990s will be a decade of increasing dramatic and traumatic change for hospitals. Reimbursement, technology, and consumers, either alone or in concert, will be the forces that will shape hospitals in the future. At the end of the 1990s we will have hospitals that offer technology to the critically ill, outpatient surgical services, and comforting care for those in the late years of life. Material management will be important to hospitals because expense control will be as important as ever. However, I believe the role of a material manager will diminish as the services provided change and as the role is folded into the responsibilities of those who manage one of the three critical business areas hospitals will be in. This new hybrid of today's manager will still apply all of the concepts to the distribution of supplies in a hospital as today's material managers do but will use them as only a part of their overall management responsibility.     

对我国旅游者中的不文明行为分析及对策

随着中国旅游业的快速发展,旅游者的不文明旅游行为所引发的问题也日渐突出,既影响了其自身利益,也破坏了旅游目的地的人文和自然环境,同时还严重地危害了中国人的国际形象。文中对旅游者的不文明旅游行为的表现和危害、产生的原因、解决的方法等进行初步探讨,给解决这种社会问题带来一些启发。     

Hedging Foreign Project Risk

We study the firm's hedging problem when there is uncertainty about whether its bid on a foreign project will be accepted. Most treatments of this problem suggest that foreign currency options are the preferred hedging instrument. However, we show that when the uncertainty pertaining to the realization of the foreign cash flow is unrelated to the exchange rate, which typically will be the case, futures dominate options as hedge vehicles.
Conversely, options hedging will be appropriate when the viability of the foreign project depends also on an exchange-rate contingency, as would be the case when the bidding firm can withdraw its bid if the foreign currency depreciates sufficiently.
In many cases, both futures and options will form part of the best hedge position. The general principle in forming the hedge is that futures will best offset exchange-rate exposure the existence of which is not exchange-rate contingent. Options will best hedge any costs or revenues that might occur in a foreign currency depending on the outcome of an exchange-rate contingency.     

美国在21世纪所面对的各种形势（英文）

本文分为四个章节。第一章是本论文的整体概括。简要讲述了美国的历史和现状,指出了文章的主要话题和目的。第二章和第三章是本文的主要组成部分。分析了美国在二十一世纪从国际、国内的角度,在经济、文化和政治领域所面对的挑战。第二章主要集中在美国国内在二十一世纪所面临和将要面对的挑战。因此我们将会看到面临的六个主要挑战。在第三章中,作者将从四个方面讨论美国面对国际挑战的措施。第四章是本文的结论。它将简要归纳要点,介绍了本论文的贡献和不足。     

保障性住房供应体系重构下的公租房发展趋势

公共租赁房作为保障性住房体系的重要组成部分,其发展趋势值得关注。在归纳评述国内现有相关研究的基础上,采用文案调查和定性分析方法,分析了现阶段我国城市保障性住房体系现状及重构走向,进而提出公共租赁房的发展趋势,认为公共租赁房将成为保障性住房供应体系的主体,多种住房类型合并管理,租金收取实行分档回补,动态监管工作将会加大力度等。     

The cost of living,threshold bargaining and incomes policy1

For trade union bargainers one of the infallible laws of political economy is that wages lag behind prices. This means that in an inflationary era the real value of the wage to which their members are entitled will be eroded, and some compensation will have to be made for this at the next round of wage negotiations. Therefore, changes in the cost of living since the last settlement will be regarded by trade unions as one of the most important factors to be taken into account in arriving at a new settlement. This is implicit in the statement made by the TUC in 1971 that “it requires pay increases of at least 10 per cent simply to restore the real disposable pay of a union's previous settlement 12 months earlier”. Economists, on the other hand, argue that once an inflation is under way, then economic agents will develop an inflationary psychology—that is, they will expect it to continue and will adjust their behaviour accordingly. If this is correct, trade union bargainers will attempt to anticipate inflation by trying to fix the money wage at a higher level than they would aim for if the price level were more stable.     

从价值链角度看我国手机行业

2003年对我国手机行业来说是不同寻常的一年,2004年的竞争将更为激烈。我国手机行业今后何去何从,今天的发展战略思想将是至关重要的,本文试通过价值链管理的角度对我国手机行业进行分析。     

延迟退休、生育政策调整与中国经济增长

政府在放松生育政策的同时，配合退休政策的调整具有重要的现实意义。通过构建延迟退休和生育调整的理论模型发现：从劳动力增量看，延迟退休能够产生即期效应，而生育调整具有滞后效应，且两者导致的劳动力增量差距呈现先扩大后缩小的特点，节点在2031年；从社会总负担看，在实行延迟退休后，总抚养比迅速下降到一个低水平位置；从总产出看，同时实施延迟退休和放松生育政策，经济中潜在的福利损失最小；从产出增速看，放开生育的同时配合延迟退休，经济增速下降最慢；从人均产出看，放开生育的同时最好配合延迟退休，否则人均收入提升的效果不如政策不变时效果。