Household food consumption in Turkey: a comment

We comment on a recent important article by Akbay et al. anddiscuss some methodological and estimation issues arising fromtheir paper. We then suggest alternative procedures that mayhelp improve their estimates and thereby enhance their usefulnessas a basis for food policy and marketing decisions.     

Estimating persistent and transient technical efficiency and their determinants in the presence of heterogeneity and endogeneity

We develop an estimation procedure that generates consistent estimates of the technology parameters, long-run (persistent) and short-run (transient) technical inefficiencies and the marginal effects of their determinants for the stochastic frontier model developed by Colombi et al. (2014, Journal of Productivity Analysis 42, 123) and Kumbhakar et al. (2014, Journal of Productivity Analysis 41, 321). Our approach accounts for three sources of potential endogeneity: (i) unobserved heterogeneity; (ii) simultaneity of input use with both types of technical efficiency; (iii) potential correlation of the noise term with the regressors. Using this approach we examine the effect of direct payments and farm size on the persistent and transient technical efficiency of French crop farms before and after the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy decoupling reform of 2003. Our results show that subsidy payments per hectare of utilised agricultural land had a significant positive effect on persistent technical efficiency and a significant negative effect on transient technical efficiency during the period before decoupling. For the period after the reform, the effect of subsidies is found to be significantly negative for persistent technical efficiency and insignificant for transient technical efficiency. The overall effect of subsidies on technical efficiency is found to be negative in both periods, albeit substantially lower in the period after decoupling. The effect of farm size on technical efficiency is found to be significant only for the period prior to the reform: it reduced persistent technical inefficiency but increased transient technical inefficiency during that period.     

Applying the dissonance‐minimising format to value cultural heritage in developing countries*

We adapt the dissonance‐minimising (DM) format proposed by Blamey et al. [Land Economics, 75 (1999) 126] in a dichotomous choice contingent valuation survey to estimate the economic benefits of preserving a cultural heritage site in Vietnam. We find that the DM format can be successfully applied to avoid biases because of yea‐saying in a developing country context.     

Incentive systems for food quality control with repeated deliveries: Salmonella control in pork production

This paper presents a dynamic principal-agent analysis of incentivesystems for Salmonella control. The European Union will requireSalmonella testing from 2008. On the basis of the producer'sperformance history in controlling Salmonella, the incentivesystems analysed determine quality premiums to the producer,testing frequencies for hogs delivered, as well as charges tothe producer for testing and penalties. Using cost estimatesand technical parameters, we evaluate two dynamic incentivesystems. We also assess the impact of ownership structure onperformance. The more efficient incentive system economiseson testing costs by reducing the probability of testing in responseto a favourable production history and is preferred under allownership structures.     

Gains from quota trade: theoretical models and an application to the Danish fishery

We provide a framework for evaluating potential effects of introducingtradable quotas to a sector. The effects depend on the economiesof scale and scope of the production technology, and on firms'ability and willingness to learn best practice methods (catchingup) and to change their input and output composition (mix).To illustrate our approach, data from the Danish fishery areused to calculate the potential gains from introducing individuallytransferable fishing quotas. Data envelopment analysis is usedto model the production technology. We find that pure reallocationis as important as pure learning, i.e. quota reallocation withoutcatching-up is as valuable as learning best practice with fixedallocations.     

The Relationship between Techinical Efficiency and Firm Size Revisited

In this study, the efficiency levels of a sample of Missouri grain farms are measured through alternative frontier estimation procedures. Different estimation approaches are found to significantly alter both the average technical efficiency of the sample and the technical efficiency levels of individual firms. The relationship between farm size and techical efficiency is also found not to be robust to the choice of estimation technique. A latent variable model that reconciles conflicting efficiency series by accounting for measurement error is estimated in this study. Within this framework, a positive relationship between farm size and efficiency is supported.
Dans la presente etude, le niveay d'efficancite d'un echantillon de fermes cerealiers du Missouri est mesure par diverses methoes d'estimation des frontieres. Differntes avenues d'estimation modifient signigicativement a la fois l'efficacite technique moyenne de l'echantillon et les niveaux d'efficacite technique de chaque exploitation. En outre, le rapport entre l'etendue de al ferme et l'efficacité technique fluctuatit selon la méthode d'estimation utilisée. Les auteurs analysent un modèle par variables latentes, qui permet de raccorder des sé d'efficacité opposées en prenant en compte l'erreur de mesure. Le modé conforte l'hypothése d'une relation positive entre la taille de la ferme et son degrè d'efficacité technique.     

An empirical Coasian study on the socio-economic profiles of two politically sensitive informal settlements: Kowloon Walled City and Rennie’s Mill

Informed by the “corollary of Coase Theorem” (Lai and Hung, 2008; Lai et al., 2007), for a better understanding of the self-help post-war development of two politically sensitive and vanished places in Hong Kong, the so-called “Kowloon Walled City” (Lai, 2016; Lai and Chua, 2017; Lau et al., 2018) and Rennie’s Mill (Lan, 2006), which have attracted academic interest but remained under-researched in terms of empirical scrutiny, this study:

• •Identify and compare their institutional arrangements by archival research;
• •identify and compare their development outcomes, as measured by census and other official data including mapping and photographic information, supplemented by published oral history of witnesses; and
• •establish and discuss the relationship between the differences in institutional arrangements and development outcomes in terms of a landlord-tenant analogy.

     

Self-enforcing contracts in agriculture

This article examines a self-enforcing contract between a risk-neutralprincipal and a risk-averse agent who is able to hold up valuesex post. It shows that risk aversion and variance can only partlyexplain the contract's incentive intensity. Ex post bargainingpower and outside options will also determine contract choice.If the agent's ex post bargaining position is weak, the principalcannot commit to high-powered incentives, whereas if the agent'sex post bargaining position is good, the agent cannot committo low-powered incentives. The model may thus explain some puzzlesin agricultural contracts, in particular why risk-averse agentssometimes accept to be governed by high-powered incentive contractsthat are quite similar to fixed rental contracts, and why risk-neutralagents are sometimes offered share contracts with lower-poweredincentives.     

高地价对中国土地储备制度的冲击

研究目的:分析并解释高位运行的城市土地价格对我国土地储备形成冲击的表现及作用机制。研究方法:实证分析法、因果分析法。研究结果:高位运行的土地价格引发开发商、政府和城市居民等主体行为变异,从而对土地储备制度产生冲击。研究结论:从引导需求、规范行为、加强监管、完善制度本身建设等方面着手,抑制地价过度上涨,发挥土地储备制度作用。     

The 2005 WTO arbitration and the new EU import regime for bananas: a cut too far?

In 2001 an agreement was reached at the WTO for the EU to introducea ‘tariff-only’ regime which ‘would resultin at least maintaining total market access for MFN banana suppliers’.The analysis shows that, contrary to the WTO 2005 ruling, theimport regime proposed by the EU in the second step of the arbitrationwould have satisfied the requirement. The regime introducedon 1 January 2006 is expected to yield in 2007 MFN imports 400,000 tabove the level that would have occurred under the previousregime. In the longer run, MFN countries will see their exportsexpand, while the opposite would have happened had the new regimenot been introduced.     

REVIEWS

Book reviewed in this article: L'Economie Agricole. By Henri de Farcy. Éditions Sirey Farm management and Agricultural Economics. By J. B. Hardaker , J. N. Lewis and G. C. Mc Farlane. Les Relations entre Capital et Production dans l'Agriculture. By Pierre Rainelli. Dynamics of Commodity Production Cycles. By Dennis L. Meadows. Europe's Future Food and Agriculture. Edited by A. M. M. Mc Farquhar. Planning Development. By K. B. Griffin and J. L. Enos. Policies, Planning and Management for Agricultural Development. Agricultural Marketing and the E.E.C. By Michael Butterwick and Edmund Neville -Rolfe Capital and Finance in Agriculture. O.E.C.D. Horticulture in Britain. By P. G. Ellis et al. The Agrarian Origins of Modern Japan. By Thomas C. Smith.     

Green Subsidies in Agriculture: Estimating the Adoption Costs of Conservation Tillage from Observed Behavior

Due to payoff uncertainties combined with risk aversion and/or real options, farmers may demand a premium in order to adopt conservation tillage practices, over and above the compensation for the expected profit losses (if any). We propose a method of directly estimating the financial incentives required for adopting conservation tillage and distinguishing between the expected payoff and premium of adoption based on the observed behavior. We find that the premium may play a significant role in farmers' adoption decisions. In an application to the state of Iowa, we find that if a uniform conservation tillage adoption subsidy program were offered in 1992, over 86% of the subsidy program payments would be an income transfer to existing and low‐cost adopters. En raison des incertitudes quant aux gains, combinées à l'aversion pour le risque et/ou aux options réelles, les agriculteurs pourraient réclamer une prime pour l'adoption de méthodes culturales de conservation du sol, une prime qui serait supérieure à l'indemnisation offerte en cas de perte de gains prévue (s'il y a lieu). Nous avons proposé une méthode fondée sur le comportement observé qui permet une estimation directe des incitatifs financiers exigés pour adopter les méthodes culturales de conservation du sol et qui fait une distinction entre les gains prévus et la prime d'adoption. Nous avons constaté qu'une prime pourrait influencer considérablement les décisions des agriculteurs quant à l'adoption de méthodes culturales de conservation du sol. En Iowa par exemple, nous avons trouvé que, si un programme de subventions uniforme pour l'adoption de méthodes de conservation du sol avait été offert en 1992, plus de 86 p. 100 des paiements du programme de subvention aurait constitué un transfert de revenus aux adopteurs existants et à faibles coûts.     

Reviews

Book reviewed in this article: Economic Policy for the European Community - the way forward. By Sir Alec Cairncross et al. Size and Efficiency in Farming. By D. K. Britton and Berkeley Hill. Saxon House, D.C. Heath, Farnborough, Hants Agricultural and Structural Transformation. Economic Strategies in Late-Developing Countries. By Bruce F. Johnston and Peter Kilby Forest Energy and Economic Development. By D. E. Earl Land Reform in Ireland. By C. F. Kolbert and T. O'Brien. University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy British Agricultural Cooperatives. By John Morley     

Which farmers benefit the most from Bt corn adoption? Estimating heterogeneity effects in the Philippines

The potential contributions of new biotechnologies to sustainable food and income security have been the subject of widespread discussions around the turn of the 21st century. But distributional issues of which segments of adopters of genetically modified (GM) crops benefit the most have not been given ample attention). Using propensity scores, we apply the (a) stratification‐multilevel method of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects; and the (b) matching‐smoothing method of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects proposed by Xie et al. We find that the incidence of higher yields, lower insecticide use, and reduced seed utilization in the Philippines diminishes progressively as a farmer's propensity to adopt Bt corn increases. Farmers with a low propensity to adopt Bt are those who farm smaller, nonirrigated farms located farther from seed suppliers and farmers without previous training on pest identification. In most cases, while these farmers are typically poorer farmers in smaller parcels, cannot afford irrigation and are situated in remote areas away from easily accessible seed suppliers, there is no evidence, however, that profits differ across farmers with varying propensities to adopt the Bt variety.     

ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF THE TURKEY INDUSTRY IN THE UNITED STATES

This paper is an empirical investigation of the several major relationships that explain the behavior of the U.S. turkey industry in the 1946-66 period. A model is constructed that consists of four structural equations: (1) consumer demand, (2) farm supply, (3) cold storage accumulation, and (4) cold storage liquidation, and an identity equation. Four different estimation techniques are used to derive values for the structural parameters. These procedures are: (1) ordinary least squares (OLS), (2) limited information single equation (USE). (3) two stage least squares (TSLS). and (4) three stage squares (3SLS). The estimation techniques are evaluated by assessing their forecasting ability against observed data in the post 1966 period. So one method proved superior to another. An index of dispersion indicated that 3SLS is superior in forecasting consumer demand and farm supply. The 3SLS and OLS are about equal in forecasting cold storage accumulation, and TSLS, LISE. and OLS are about equal forecasters for cold storage liquidation. Cel article répresente une étude empirique des facleurs imporlanls qui servenl à expliquer ?induslrie américaine ?élevage de dindes. au cours de la période 1945-66. Un modèle est construit qui comporte qualre équations structurelles: la demande finale. (2) ?off re au niveau de ?exploitation agricole. (3) ?accumulation de slocks de viande congelée. et (4) le liquidation des stocks, plus une équation ?identité. Quaire différentes techniques ?estimalion sont utilisées pour déterminer la valeur des parametres: (1) simples moindres carrés, (2) équation unique avec information limitée, (3)doubles moindres carrés. et (4) triples moindres carrés. En se hasant sur la qualité des previsions par rapport aux observations de la période postérieure à 1966. on a pu évaluer les différentes techniques ?estimalion, pour se rendre compte qu'aucune méthode ne s'est avérée supérieure aux autres. Un indice de dispersion démontre que les triples moindres carrés fournissenl une meilleure prévision de la demande finale et de ?offre au niveau de ?entreprise. Les triples moindres carrés et les simples moindres carrés sont équivalents lorsqu'il s'agit de prévoir ?accumulalion des slocks. ?équation simple avec information limitée peut prédire ?écoulement des stocks avec une précision sensihlemenl égale à celle obtenue avec les simples et triples moindres carrés.     

Potentiel de Productivité et Efficacité Technique du Secteur Agricole en Afrique

This study utilizes frontier metaproduction functions to analyze inter‐region agricultural productivity differences. Technical efficiency scores are examined through estimation of stochastic frontiers for 16 African countries divided into three different regions (West Africa, East and Southern Africa, and North Africa) from 1970 to 2001. The idea is to explore the differences in efficiency and technological gaps of agricultural sector. Apart of common traits that characterize African agricultural sector, countries exhibit national and regional specificities. These diversities are such that it is difficult to make valuable generalizations. It appears from the results that: in West Africa, the level of technology is relatively good, meaning that there is no problem of input constraints. By contrast, the efficiency with which inputs are used is very low. The situation is very different in the East and Southern Africa, with the level of technology relatively low and appreciable technical level. At least, the North Africa countries make a performing mixture between technology and efficiency. Cette étude utilise les Meta frontières de production pour analyser les différences inter‐régionales de la productivité agricole. Les niveaux d'efficacité technique sont examinées par l'estimation des frontières stochastiques de 16 pays africains regroupés en trois régions (l'Afrique de l'Ouest, l'Afrique de l'Est et Australe, et l'Afrique du Nord), sur une période allant de 1970 à 2001. L'idée étant d'explorer les différences d'efficacité et les écarts technologiques du secteur agricole. Au‐delà des simples traits communs qui caractérisent le secteur agricole africain, on trouve des expériences nationales et régionales dont il est difficile, du fait de leur grande diversité, de tirer des généralisations valables. Des résultats de l'étude, il ressort que: en Afrique de l'Ouest, le niveau technologique est relativement satisfaisant, traduisant le fait que la présence des inputs ne représente pas une contrainte. Par contre le niveau d'efficacité avec lequel ces intrants sont utilisés est assez faible. La situation est tout autre en Afrique de l'Est et Australe avec un niveau technologique relativement faible et un niveau d'efficacité appréciable. L'Afrique du nord enfin fait un savant dosage entre efficacité et technologie.     

Ozone and Wheat Farming in Alberta: A Micro-study of the Effects of Environmental Change

Alberta's Clean Air Act of 1971 sets out maximum allowable levels for ozone concentrations in Alberta. Evidence shows that these standards for ambient ozone concentrations are often exceeded. As biological studies reveal, one of the consequences of exposure to ozone can be reduced yields for agricultural crops. Wheat, a major crop in Alberta, is one crop that has been shown to be sensitive to ozone. Biological studies alone, however, cannot capture the responses of farmers to deteriorating air quality. The profit-maximizing response, which can include changes in both output levels and input mixes, and the cost-minimizing response, which involves changes in input mixes, can be captured by estimating a variable profit and a variable cost function. The application of duality theory to the results from estimation of variable profit and cost functions allows researchers to study the impact of changing ozone levels on profits and costs as well as on the selection of factor input mixes and wheat output levels. In our study of wheat farming in Alberta, we find that, while the specific responses of farmers in terms of their input mix and output supply appear to vary across farms, there are significant decreases in profits and increases in costs as ozone concentrations rise. La Alberta Clean Air Act de 1971 fixe les niveaux acceptables maximums d'ozone en Alberta. Il appert que ces concentrations ambientales sont souvent dépassées. Comme le révèelent les études biologiques, une des conséquences de l'exposition à l'ozone peut être une diminution du rendement des cultures. Culture d'importance en Alberta, le blé s'est montré sensible à l'ozone. Toutefois, les études biologiques à elles seules ne peuvent saisir toutes les réactions des agriculteurs à la dégradation de la qualité de I'air. La réaction axée sur la maximisation des profits, laquelle peut inclure des changements à la fois dans le niveau de production et dans la composition des intrants, et la reponse axee sur la minimisation des coûts qui, elle, ne porte que sur la composition des intrants peuvent être saisies par une fonction à profit variable et par unefonction à coût variable. L'estimation combinée de ces fonctions permet aux chercheurs d'examiner les incidences des changements de la concentration d'ozone sur les bénéfices et sur les coûts, ainsi que sur le choix des combinaisons d'intrants utilisées et des niveaux de rendement du blé escomptés. Dans le cadre de notre étude sur les cultures du blé en Alberta, nous constatons que si la composition des intrants et les niveaux de production semblent varier d'une ferme à l'autre, l'accroissement des concentrations d'ozone dans l'atmosphére s'accompagne de chutes significatives des bénefices et d'accroissements significatifs des coûts.     

THE EFFECT OF CANADIAN BUSINESS CYCLES ON THE ADOPTION OFTECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS IN CANADIAN AGRICULTURE 1926/1967

The inter-relationships between the farm and non-farm sectors of advanced economies have received scant attention of late and in the Canadian context little attention at all. This paper concerns itself with one aspect of this inter-relationship. namely, the timing of adoption of innovations in non-farm-produced agricultural inputs relative to conditions in the non-farm economy. Following a chronological review of the relevant literature, an hypothesis is developed, and the remainder of the paper is devoted to the formal procedure of developing a deterministic and from this a stochastic model to test the hypothesis, concentrating on the particular input, fertilizer. The results of the estimation of the model are as expected, with one notable exception concerning the signs of certain key variables. Much of the remainder of the paper is devoted to discussing, and attempting to resolve, the dilemma that this exception raises. Les relations étroites entre les secteurs agricoles et non-agricoles dans une économie bien développee n'ont reçu que peu ?attention récemment, et la situation canadienne a été encore plus negligée. Cet article traite un aspect de ces relations, à savoir, le réglage de ?adoption ?innovations dans les investissements agricoles secondares en relation aux conditions de ?économie non-agricole. Après une revue chronologique de la litérature rélévante, une hypothèse est développée et pour le restanl du papier ?auteur se concerne avec le procédé forme! de développer un modèle determinisle et de là un modèle stochastique pour mettre son hypothèse à?épreuve. Il se sen ?un investissemenl en particulier – ?engrais. Les résultats de ?évaluation du modèle sonl commes prévus avec une exception notable oü les signes de certains variables clefs sont affectés. ?auteur discute cette exception en détail et essaie de resoudre le dilemme quelle pose.     

Economic Guidelines for Present and Future Capital use in Canadian Agriculture*

Capital requirements for typical farms are expected to be $200,000 to $300,000 by 1980. This will necessitate substantial increases in credit and provide conditions more attractive to private investors than in the past for all types of credit as well as equity capital. Form operators' equity in the farm business is expected to decline substantially. Incorporated farm statistics are presented as well as an estimate of the aggregate farm capital and credit structure in 1981. A number of policy questions are examined in the light of the changed financial structure envisaged. GUIDES ÉCONOM1QUES CONCERNANT L'USAGE ACTUEL ET FU-TUR DU CAPITAL DANS L'AGRICULTURE CANADIENNE–On estime que la mise de fonds en capital d'une ferme typique sera de l'ordre de $200,000 à$300,000 vers 1980. Cette situation entraînera des accroissements sensibles au chapitre du crédit et créera des conditions plus attrayantes que par le passé pour les investisseurs privés, les amenant à offrir tous les genres de credit et mime a participer au capital effectif de mise de fonds. On estime que Vavoir des exploitants agricoles dans leurs ferme diminuera sensiblement. On présente des statistiques agricoles incorporees de même qu'une estimation de la structure d'ensemble du crédit et du capital des fermes en 1981. Un certain nombre de questions de politiques sont etudiees a la lumiire des changements prevus a la structure financiere.     

The Role of Income in Trading-Differentiated Agri-Food Products: The Case of Canada, the United States, and Selected EU Countries

This study investigates the role of income in determining the agri‐food exports of a subset of EU countries, Canada, and the United States by estimating per capita bilateral trade flows for 42 individual products categorized into nine product sectors across 52 countries for the period 1990–2000. About 43% of the total observations of bilateral trade flows for the selected regions and products are zero. Therefore, the fixed‐effects Heckman Maximum Likelihood estimation procedure is used to account for the zero observations. The results show that, in general, the three regions (Canada, the EU countries, United States) face statistically significant and positive income elasticities from developing countries. However, only Canadian and United States’ exports of agri‐food products benefit from elastic income elasticities. Middle‐income developing countries are the growth market of the future as growth in their expenditures on agri‐food imports outpaces the growth in their per capita incomes. Homotheticity is consistently rejected for Canada and the EU and less often for the United States. Thus, income plays an important role in agri‐food trade; however, further investigation is needed to better understand the forces that generate rather widely divergent results across countries and products. Dans la présente étude, nous avons examiné le rôle du revenu sur les exportations agroalimentaires de certains pays de l’Union européenne (UE), du Canada et des États‐Unis en estimant les échanges commerciaux bilatéraux par habitant de 42 produits issus de neuf secteurs de production dans 52 pays, pour la période allant de 1990 à 2000. Environ 43 p. 100 des observations d’échanges commerciaux bilatéraux pour les pays et les produits choisis étaient égales à zéro. Nous avons utilisé la méthode d’estimation du maximum de vraisemblance d’Heckman pour tenir compte des échanges nuls. Les résultats ont montré que, en règle générale, les trois zones (Canada, pays de l’UE et États‐Unis) sont confrontées aux élasticités?revenu positives et statistiquement significatives des pays en développement. Toutefois, seules les exportations canadiennes et étatsuniennes de produits agroalimentaires bénéficient d’une élasticité‐revenu élevée. Les pays en développement à revenu intermédiaire sont les marchés en expansion de l’avenir puisque la croissance de leurs importations agroalimentaires dépasse la croissance de leur revenu par habitant. L’homothéticité est systématiquement rejetée dans le cas du Canada et l’UE, et l’est moins souvent dans le cas des États‐Unis. Le revenu joue un rôle important dans le commerce agroalimentaire; toutefois, il faudrait effectuer des recherches supplémentaires afin de mieux comprendre les forces qui génèrent des résultats fort divergents entre les pays et les produits.