技术进步对我国产出失业关系的影响分析

最近十几年来,我国经济出现了高增长和高失业并存的现象。可分劳动动态随机一般均衡模型模拟结果表明,技术进步促进了产出增长,同时也促进了就业增长,但对就业增长的促进作用明显小于对产出增长的促进作用,同时与技术进步相伴的资本投入也对劳动起到了替代作用。在经济活动人口不断增加的背景下,技术进步对产出和就业增长影响的不对称性,是我国高增长和高失业并存的重要原因。     

Revisiting the Okun relationship

Our article revisits the Okun relationship between observed unemployment rates and output gaps. We include in the relationship the effect of labour market institutions as well as age and gender effects. Our empirical analysis is based on 20 OECD countries over the period 1985–2013. We find that the share of temporary workers (which includes a high and rising share of young workers) played a crucial role in explaining changes in the Okun coefficient (the impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate) over time. The Okun coefficient is not only different for young, prime-age and older workers but also it decreases with age. From a policy perspective, it follows that an increase in economic growth will not only have the desired outcome of reducing the overall unemployment rate but it will also have the distributional effect of lowering youth unemployment.     

Equilibrium unemployment, search behaviour and unemployment persistency

Unemployment persistency and high equilibrium unemployment isoften assumed to be caused by rigidities and low search efficiencyin the labour market, especially in European welfare stateswith generous income replacement schemes. These arguments aretested on data from Sweden, an old welfare state with a longperiod of full employment that has changed into a situationwith high unemployment. Data show a clear and very strong unemploymentduration dependency, but it is not possible to prove that thisis a result of low employability among the long-term unemployed.Getting a job is most of all associated with relative qualifications,recall expectations and local labour market conditions, andnot with search behaviour or high wage demands. It is arguedthat unemployment duration when unemployment is high can bestbe understood as a selection process rather than a search process,and that econometric estimations of equilibrium unemploymentare too pessimistic about the potential for an expansive economicpolicy. It is also argued that an active labour market policyis a more efficient compliment to such a policy than changesin income replacement ratios.     

简化一般均衡模型中一般均衡点的确定

经济学教材在讨论一般均衡的时候,往往以两个人、两种生产要素、两种产品这种最简单的社会作为研究对象,它们通常只阐述了一般均衡的存在,但都没有说明这种最简单的社会一般均衡点的确定即以此作为研究对象。     

Environmental Tax Reform and Government Expenditure

In a simple model of production with an imported polluting resource and involuntary unemployment we consider the effects of energy taxes, holding the real wage constant, under differing levels of government expenditure and externalities. Simulations reveal conflict between the goals of net welfare, employment and profitability over much of the relevant parameter range, thus extending the usual discussion of multiple dividends. However, potential net welfare and employment gains are substantial for plausible parameters. The optimal energy tax declines as government expenditure rises and is less than the Pigovian tax for plausible externalities.     

Not-quite-great depressions of Turkey: A quantitative analysis of economic growth over 1968–2004

Following the great depressions methodology suggested by Kehoe and Prescott (2002, 2007), we use growth accounting and perfect foresight dynamic general equilibrium models to study growth performance of Turkey from 1968 to 2004. Our benchmark model without any frictions and taxes accounts for 86% of the observed change in the growth rate of GDP per-working age person and once we extend the model with taxes and capital adjustment costs it accounts for 60% of the observed reduction in hours worked per-working age person and 35% of the change in the growth of capital-output ratio. Also, we identify that the Turkish economy experienced a depression from 1976 to 1984 and the extended model performs remarkably well to account for the depression period. Our findings generally suggest that rigidities affecting capital accumulation and government policies using distortionary taxes have a crucial role in the evolution of various variables of the Turkish economy.     

Conflict,growth, distribution,and employment: a long-run Kaleckian model

This paper presents a Kaleckian growth model in which (i) the rate of capacity utilization, the profit share, and the rate of employment are adjusted in the medium run, and (ii) the normal rate of capacity utilization and the expected rate of capital accumulation are adjusted in the long run. The long-run equilibrium is a continuum of equilibria and is characterized by hysteresis in that the long-run position of the economy depends on where it starts. An increase in the bargaining power of workers lowers the rate of unemployment in both the medium-run and the long-run equilibrium.     

高学历"追逐症"与失业的经济学分析--一个基于斯宾塞劳动力市场模型的研究

文章从信息不对称的角度,通过对斯宾塞劳动力市场模型的发展,建立了一个针对高学历“追逐症”与失业的博弈模型,并对此进行了均衡和福利分析。分析结果表明,信息不对称是高学历“追逐症”和高学历人才失业问题的重要成因,降低高能力者受教育的成本、提高劳动力市场和教育市场的竞争度以及使学校教育更切合生产实际,能有效缓解高学历追逐和失业问题,减少社会教育资源无效消耗和社会效用损失。     

Sequential Markets: An Experimental Investigation of Clower's Dual-Decision Hypothesis

Countless experimental studies have shown that markets converge quickly and efficiently to the competitive outcome under many trading institutions, particularly the double auction mechanism. This creates difficulties for Keynesian stories of unemployment creation—which suggest a noncompetitive outcome in an essentially competitive world. Such stories were popular in the late 1960s and 1970s. One of these stories—the dual decision hypothesis of Clower—was seen then as the beginning of a story of unemployment. This article reports the results of an experiment designed to test this hypothesis. Specifically, we set up an experiment in which there are two sequential double-auction markets, in the first of which one good (labour) is traded, after which the second market (goods) is opened and the second good traded. We compare the outcome of our experiment with that of the competitive theory. One general finding is that not enough trade takes place in the two markets. In other words, the usual finding that competitive equilibrium is achieved in double-auction markets is not replicated in this sequential setting. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Rational expectations for large CGE models: A practical algorithm and a policy application

We describe a simple iterative method for solving large dynamic CGE models under rational expectations. Details are given for Australia's MONASH model but the approach applies to a wide range of CGE models. The method is automated in the RunMONASH Windows software, putting CGE modelling under rational expectations within the reach of non-specialist modellers. We provide an illustrative application in which MONASH results under rational expectations are compared with results under static expectations. The application and supporting software can be downloaded. Results from the application are interpreted in terms of elementary economic mechanisms.     

Flexible and Committed Profit Sharing with Wage Bargaining: Implications for Equilibrium Unemployment

We analyze the relationship between profit sharing, employee effort, wage formation and unemployment under different relative timings of the wage and profit sharing decisions. The optimal profit share under commitment exceeds that under flexibility, because through a profit share commitment the firm can induce wage moderation. The negotiated profit sharing depends positively on the bargaining power of trade union and it has both effort-enhancing and wage-moderating effects. Higher profit sharing is shown to reduce equilibrium unemployment under ``sufficiently rigid' labor market institutions, but it can harm employment when labor market ``rigidities' are ``small enough'.     

Can optimism solve the entrepreneurial earnings puzzle?*

In this paper, we apply a general equilibrium occupational choice model to the study of the impact of optimism on the earnings of entrepreneurs and workers. We extend the work of Lucas (1978 Bell Journal of Economics 9, 508–523) by assuming a fraction of individuals are optimistic about their ability as entrepreneurs. The model shows that optimism leads to a misallocation of talent and inputs, which raises input prices and lowers output. The model is calibrated to match salient features of the UK economy and the British Household Panel Survey. The calibration shows that optimism can account for more than half of the size of the entrepreneurial earnings puzzle in the UK.     

Marshall and Walras: Incompatible bedfellows?

Abstract

The standard view about the relationship between the Marshallian and the Walrasian approaches is that they are complementary to each other. My aim in this paper is to show that, on the contrary, they constitute alternative sub-research programmes within the wider neoclassical paradigm. I make my point by contrasting the two approaches against the following benchmarks: the purpose of economic theory according to Marshall and Walras; their views as to the role of mathematics; their specific ways of tackling complexity; the conception of equilibrium underpinning their theories; and, finally, their trade organisation assumptions.     

On the equivalence between the overlapping-generations model and cyclical general-equilibrium models

We show that equilibrium cycles in an overlapping-generations model are equivalent to asymmetric equilibria in a general-equilibrium model. We use this equivalence to find equilibrium cycles in the overlapping-generations model with two and three generations, respectively. For the example with two generations we show that for certain parameter values cycles of all periods occur.