The effect of immigrants on the extensive and intensive margins of trade

This study examines the impact of immigrants on the extensive and intensive margins of South Korean exports. Since trade data contain excessive zero trade flows, we adopt recently suggested Poisson and Gamma pseudo maximum likelihoods. ???Our finding shows that immigrant stock in South Korea has significant effect on both the extensive and intensive margins of South Korean exports. Immigrants’ network seems to decrease variable as well as fixed costs of trade.     

Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Europe's Regional Liberalization Agreements

After a short review of recent developments in gravity modeling and an overview of the liberalization agreements in Europe, this paper measures the trade creation and diversion effects of major European agreements based on the results of a correctly specified triple-indexed gravity model with bilateral fixed effects. Discussion of the resulting trade creation and diversion focuses on the role of partner and non-partner country characteristics including size and relative factor endowments, as well as date, reciprocity, industry coverage, and rate of liberalization characteristics of the agreement.     

Examining crop price effects on production decision and resource allocation: an ex-ante approach

This article examines the output price effects on the US crop production, employing an ex-ante approach to the differential systems of input demand and output supply. The estimation results of the differential input demand show that the expansion of crop production leads to an increase in acreage (i.e. extensive margin) and a proportional rise in input usage improving yield per acre (i.e. intensive margin). The substitutable relationship between fertilizer and land supports that crop producers have an option to choose either intensive or extensive margin in response to changes in their relative prices. In addition, the estimation results of the differential output supply highlight that the composition of crop supply can be altered by changes in ex-ante crop prices. The estimation results suggest that crop producers substitute corn supply for the supply of cotton, wheat and soybeans or vice versa. Based on the estimated elasticities, the decompositions of profit-maximizing input demand are conducted, which reveals that a change in ex-ante crop prices is associated closely with resource reallocation.     

Over the ROC methodology: Productivity,economic size and firms’ export thresholds

We identify the minimum combinations of productivity and “economic size” that Italian manufacturing firms need to achieve in order to access international markets. These “export thresholds” are estimated by applying, for the first time in economics, the ROC (receiver operating characteristics) methodology. In this way, we detect a model‐based (rather than a subjectively determined) cut‐off that allows to identify exporters and nonexporters and provides a measure of each firm’s distance from the export threshold. This methodology also paves the way to investigate other determinants of thresholds, thus helping to design more effective policy interventions to reduce barriers to trade.     

Trade in the enlarged European Union: a new approach on trade potential

This paper focuses on the trade potential of manufactured exports from countries belonging to the enlarged EU (EU25) to groups of countries of that economic area in 2002. We note that previous results on trade potential, based on the estimation of a gravity model, may be invalid. Thus, we propose a correct approach based on the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood estimator and the calculation of confidence intervals with the Delta method. The gravity model includes fixed effects to capture bilateral trade specificities between country groupings. We conclude that CEEC as a group had apparently exhausted the possibilities for export expansion in the EU25, unless dynamic changes were to take place. However, several of the remaining EU25 countries had not yet reached their export potential to the EU25 markets, including to the CEEC as a group.     

Short-Term and Long-Term Margins of International Trade: Evidence from the Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement

We investigate the impact of the Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement (CCFTA) on Canadian exports to Chile, particularly the dynamic effects of the agreement on extensive and intensive margins of trade. Consistent with the literature, we find that the extensive margin effects occurred later than the intensive margin effects and became more prominent in the long-term. Surprisingly, the intensive margin effects died off in the long-term. A theoretical model is constructed to show that our results can arise in a standard setting of intra-industry trade.     

我国能耗和能源密集型产品贸易关系分析

本文使用误差修正技术对我国1997-2007年能源消费和能源密集型产品贸易之间的相互关系进行研究.研究发现,1997-2000年,存在能源密集型产品净进口和煤炭消费间双向因果关系;2001-2007年,存在煤炭消费和能源密集型产品出口间双向因果关系.此结果反映出我国能源密集型产品的贸易结构对能源投入的依赖性,同时说明外国需求拉动可能是加剧我国近年能源消费的一个重要因素.     

GATT/WTO框架下环境与贸易争端的解决机制

本文探讨在GATT／WTO条款以及相关的贸易协定下,贸易体制与环境保护可能相互发生作用的方式,我们主要考虑了GATT／WTO中与环境最相关的规则,通常也是最容易引起争议的几个方面,非歧视原则;例外情况：TBT和SPS协议,补贴和知识产权,多边环境协定与GATT／WTO的关系,正如我们在文中看到的,贸易与环境问题在WGAAA／WTO框架]下并没有完全得到解决,规则条款之间的冲突,实施过程的争端,未来的不确定性都对WTO贸易与环境委员会的考验。     

FDI对国际贸易的影响：来自中国的证据

本文利用2003~2006年的面板数据检验了我国外向与内向FDI存量与进出口贸易之间的关系。通过实证分析发现:我国的外向FDI与进出口均存在互补关系,因此外向FDI具有贸易创造效应,其中又以出口创造效应为甚,从而使我国的外向FDI具有"净出口"效应;而内向FDI与进出口的关系都不显著。     

Trade integration and the EU economic membership criteria

The purpose of this paper is to consider whether the European Union (EU)'s economic membership criteria for the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) and Cyprus (the Candidate Countries) are fulfilled. To this end, I examine the actual and potential levels of trade between the Candidate Countries and the EU countries using the gravity model. The results show a high degree of trade integration between all Candidate Countries and the EU, indicating that the Candidate Countries would not face any serious difficulties in coping with the competitive pressure and market forces within the Union in the medium term. The European Commission, however, suggested the contrary for some of the Candidate Countries in its opinions of 1997.     

论多边环境协定与WTO的关系

随着全球环境问题的影响范围逐渐扩张,国际社会开始关注全球环境变迁,目前各种国际环境议题开始通过协商与谈判,制订国际公约加以规范以达成环境治理目标。而WTO以贸易自由化为主要目标,它与多边环境协定之间的竞合关系成为值得深入探讨的议题。文章通过分析WTO的环保立场、WTO有关多边环境协定的谈判内容及多哈回合谈判暂停对WTO贸易与环境谈判的影响阐述WTO与多边环境保护协定的关系。     

农业产业化影响因素的实证研究——基于安徽省10市(县)270户农户的调研数据

基于对270户农户的实地调研数据,分析了农业产业化的影响因素,并利用泊松回归模型实证研究了各相关因素的具体影响。研究表明：龙头企业收购价格的波动程度、户主文化程度、种植油茶的年收入水平、农户对产业合同的遵守程度、油茶收入占家庭总收入的比重、农户户主性别和耕地面积7个因素对农业产业化的影响是显著的;农户年龄、家庭规模、技术服务水平、政府补贴程度、年种植成本这5个因素的影响是不显著的。     

中国入世对国际经济影响的量化分析

中国工业品出口引起的竞争加剧会不会导致东南亚国家非工业化 ,使它们回到作为初级产品出口国的地位 ?或者 ,制造业产业链中是否存在东南亚国家可以专业化的有利空间 ?通过G Cubed亚太模型的模拟表明 ,中国大量劳动力全面进入国际劳动分工只有在满足以下两个条件的情况下才会导致东南亚国家的非工业化 :流向东南亚国家的国外直接投资大量地转向中国 ,并且东南亚国家放任FDI流入的下降从而降低由此带来的技术扩散。如果东南亚国家能够通过其它方式很快吸收国外新技术及提高本土技术创新能力阻止技术下降 ,那么它们就能在国际制造业产业链中找到有利空间。本文的政策含义是 :东南亚国家要通过向它们的科学家和管理者加速扩散新知识以及为那些下岗工人提供合适的再培训 ,从而将人力资本的深化与广化作为首要考虑的目标。     

中国对虾出口贸易的影响因素及潜力分析——基于贸易引力模型

选取中国与主要对虾出口市场 2003-2017年的对虾贸易面板数据。运用引力模型对各影响因素进行回归分析。结果表明。出口市场的经济水平、中国的对虾产量以及 APEC成员对中国对虾的出口有着促进作用。中国与各出口市场的地理距离以及对虾疾病 EMS对对虾的出口有着较弱的阻碍作用。并根据引力模型测算了各出口市场的贸易潜力。其中美国等 12个国家和地区属于潜力再造型出口市场。加拿大属于潜力开拓型出口市场。日本、澳大利亚等15个国家和地区属于潜力巨大型出口市场。根据分析及测算结果分别从企业和政府的角度提出了促进对虾出口贸易发展的政策建议。     

入世对我国证券市场发展的影响与对策

中国加入世贸组织是顺应经济全球化的趋势，迅速融入世界经济潮流的必然选择。入世后，我国的证券市场将会面临更大的挑战。为此，我们必须从我国的证券市场的实际出发，采取相应的措施，以适应证券对外开放的需要。     

中国加入世贸组织后对农业的影响及应采取的措施

中国是农产品国际贸易大国，加入世贸组织后，对农业的生产和贸易将产生较大的影响。中国加入世贸组织既是挑战，又是机遇，有利有弊，利大于弊．应采取的措施有：改革现行的政府管理机构；采取“绿箱政策”；调整产业结构；提高产品质量；加强动植物检疫。     

WTO规则对我国国家财政科技投入的影响研究

加入WTO后我国的科技发展也将受到WTO一揽子多边协议的约束和限制，不仅要求我国的科技发展战略发生根本性的转变，也对我国的科技投入模式提出了更高要求。因此，科技投入的基本方向应是以基础性、公益性和共性技术为主，着力营造良好环境，引导企业成为创新主体。     

加入WTO后我国民族自治地方发展边境贸易的政策及其机制探析

边境贸易长期以来一直是民族自治地方经济发展的主要推动力之一。然而,我国民族自治地方的边境贸易总量规模小、出口商品档次低、与有关周边国家的边境贸易不平衡、贸易政策不对等。民族自治地方边境贸易发展还存在一些深层次的制约因素。目前,我国边境贸易政策与WTO有关协议存在一些不一致的地方。今后,加快发展我国民族自治地方的边境贸易,应该从边境地区实际情况出发,按照WTO规则和鼓励我国民族自治地方经济发展的要求,调整和完善现行民族自治地方边境贸易的政策与管理,进一步提高边境贸易的档次,规范贸易行为,以促进边境贸易的健康发展。     

城市土地集约利用系统分析及调控研究

城市土地集约利用系统作为一个典型的自然-经济-社会复合系统，其良性运行将推动城市土地利用方式从粗放型向集约型转变，节约和集约利用土地。本文在提出城市土地集约利用系统概念的基础上，分析了系统结构、系统目标及系统特征．最后对如何调控城市土地集约利用系统进行了初步探讨。     

A note on the trade potential of Central and Eastern Europe

This paper discusses the results of recent studies which use the so-called ‘gravity’ approach to predict the potential volume and direction of the trade of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). It also examines how the trade of the former socialist economies have evolved following external liberalization. It then compares the predictions made using the PPP based estimates of GDP for 1989 with actual 1992 trade data and the corrected predictions based on actual 1992 GDP figures. The results indicate that the CEE trade responded very quickly to the new regime and being redirected away from CMEA and towards EU markets. CEE's actual trade patterns do not now considerably differ from that of similar Western European countries. Moreover, the projection based on the data of 1992 do not indicate any remaining unused CEE trade potential.