Being active when judging risks: bodily states interfere with accurate risk analysis

Research on embodiment shows that bodily states influence affect and cognition, but embodiment theories have hardly been applied to risk research. Understanding how the bodily state of being physically active interferes with accurate risk judgments is especially important in risky activities, such as risk sports or even biking in the city. The present investigation consisted of two field studies (Study 1, N = 45; Study 2, N = 110) and one experimental study (Study 3, N = 44) examining the influence of physical activity on risk judgments. In Study 1, backcountry skiers judged risks of backcountry skiing while on tour and in Study 2 indoor climbers judged climbing risks. In Study 3, participants were riding on a stationary bicycle in the laboratory and judged risks related and unrelated to that activity. It was found that physical activity can decrease the perceived likelihood of risks, both related and unrelated to the activity, and that this effect is moderated by experience.     

Talking aggressively about GMOs? Examining the effect of aggressive risk communication with communicator’s facial expression and gender

Abstract

Two experiments (N = 229 and N = 268) assessed the effect of aggressive risk communication about GMOs by a scientist on respondents’ perceptions of message quality and writer (the scientist communicator) likability. We also considered two factors from the communicator that may influence how individuals process aggressive messages – facial expression (study 1) and the gender (study 2). Both studies showed that aggressive communication has a negative effect on both perceived message quality and writer likability, which is explained by the level of negative expectancy violation individuals perceived. Moreover, study 1 showed that smiling appeared to be a negative influence on the outcomes and study 2 showed that gender did not influence how people perceive aggressive messages. The findings provided both scholarly and practical implications for science and risk communication.     

Revisiting local responses to mass violence

This study examines the extent to which individual and sociological factors relate to worry about mass violence, which, in this study, is investigated as worry about the recurrence of school shootings. First, it is expected that socio-demographic and vicarious event-related factors explain individual variation in worry about mass violence. Second, responses to a localized event may associate with negative perceptions of community solidarity. In addition, individual responses regarding school shootings cannot easily be separated from other forms of insecurity, such as concerns about societal disintegration (e.g. eroding moral values) and popular discussions about crime (e.g. terrorism). Two independent postal surveys were collected from the small Finnish community of Jokela approximately 6 (N = 330) and 18 (N = 278) months after the rampage school shootings in the local high school. Independent samples t tests and linear regression are used as analyses methods. Results from regression analyses of the six-month post-event responses indicate that knowing a victim of a school shooting event relates to increased worry about mass violence. Decreased perceptions of social solidarity are also associating with increased worry after controlling for other individual and sociological factors. After 18 months, both knowing a victim and having school-aged children within one’s household explain even more of the variation in worry, while perceptions of solidarity is no longer a statistically significant predictor. In addition, at both 6 and 18 months, the higher the perceptions of risks to Finnish society from social change and from crime, the higher the worry about mass violence at schools. Surprisingly, the positive association between self-reported subjective anxiety and worry about mass violence does not reach a statistical significance.     

Predictors of the perceived risk of climate change and preferred resource levels for climate change management programs

In a 2013 US national public opinion survey, data were collected from 1321 adult respondents for five psychometric variables – Dread, Scientists’ Level of Understanding, Public’s Level of Understanding, Number Affected, and Likelihood – for six threats (sea-level rise, increased flooding, and four others) associated with climate change. Respondents also rated perceived risk and indicated the resource level that they believed should be invested in management programs for each threat. Responses did not vary significantly across the six threats, so they were combined. The survey collected standard demographic information, as well as measuring climate change knowledge and environmental values (New Ecological Paradigm, NEP). Psychometric variables predicted perceived risk extremely well (R = .890, p < .001); all five psychometric variables were significant predictors. The results were generally consistent with previous research except that Scientists’ Level of Understanding was a positive, rather than negative, predictor of perceived risk. Jointly the demographic variables, knowledge, and environmental values significantly predicted perceived risk (R = .504, p < .001). Consistent with previous research, significant positive predictors were age, Democratic Party Identification, and NEP score; significant negative predictors were male gender and White ethnicity. When demographic variables, knowledge, and environmental values were added to psychometric ones, only the psychometric variables were statistically significant predictors. Perceived risk strongly predicted resource level (r = .772, p < .001). Adding demographic, knowledge, and environmental value variables to perceived risk as predictors of resource level did not appreciably increase overall predictive ability (r = .790, p < .001), although White ethnicity emerged as a significant negative predictor and religiosity, Democratic Party Identification, Liberal Political Ideology, and NEP score were significant positive predictors. The results demonstrate that risk perceptions of climate change and policy preferences among climate change management options are highly predictable as a function of demographic, knowledge, environmental values, and psychometric variables. Among these, psychometric variables were found to be the strongest predictors.     

Institutionalization of risk and safety management at the local governmental level in Sweden

The starting point for this article is the need for empirical knowledge about organizational configuration for societal risk and safety management activities in a modern welfare society. In this paper, we use Sweden as an empirical frame to analyze the administrative management structure at the local governmental level. The analysis is based on statistical analysis of information from a web‐survey with administrative chief/head officials (n = 1283) with responsibilities for different municipal functions and sectors. The sample represented 25% of the Swedish municipalities (n = 290) and the response rate was approximately 60% (n = 766). The responses to two sets of questions (25 and 45 questions) are used for statistical analyses of management structures and task distribution within the municipal organizations. Principal component factor analyses with Varimax and Kaiser's Normalization was applied as a structure detection method. The results indicate a clear and uniform way to institutionalize societal risk and safety management at the local level. Furthermore, the management course of action is found to have different types of value characters. The implications that arise from the patterns identified in this study are considered to be of general relevance and topicality for research and practice in this area.     

How to improve people's interpretation of probabilities of precipitation

Most research into uncertainty focuses on how people estimate probability magnitude. By contrast, this paper focuses on how people interpret the concept of probability and why they often misinterpret it. In a weather forecast context, we hypothesised that the absence of an explicit reference class and the polysemy of the percentage format are causing incorrect probability interpretations, and test two interventions to help people make better probability interpretation. In two studies (N = 1337), we demonstrate that most people from the UK and the US do not interpret probabilities of precipitation correctly. The explicit mention of the reference class helped people to interpret probabilities of precipitation better when the target area was explicit; but this was not the case when it was not specified. Furthermore, the polysemy of the percentage format is not likely to cause these misinterpretations, since a non-polysemous format (e.g. verbal probability) did not facilitate a correct probability interpretation in our studies. A Bayes factor analysis supported both of these conclusions. We discuss theoretical and applied implications of our findings.     

Exploring Comparative Ratings and Constituent Facets of Public Trust in Risk Regulatory Bodies and Related Stakeholder Groups

This paper reports on two comparative ranking tasks performed by a sample of the British citizens (N = 304). The first was designed to compare levels of relative trust vested in a sample of UK risk regulatory bodies and associated stakeholder groups. The second sought to elicit a ranking of a range of previously identified facets of social trust referenced to their desirability as attributes of a government funded risk regulatory body. The ranking tasks were embedded within a broader programme of research focused on “Evaluating public understandings of and trust in the Health and Safety Executive” (Pidgeon et al., 2003). It is argued that deriving rankings of multi‐faceted phenomena using the method of paired comparisons offers a more robust approach to rating social trust entities than the direct ranking techniques used in previous studies in this area. Results are discussed with reference to qualitative findings from the broader programme of work on public trust in HSE (Pidgeon et al., 2003) and the wider literature on public trust in risk regulation.     

Dispute and morality in the perception of societal risks: extending the psychometric model

The psychometric paradigm has identified two classic dimensions, dread and unknown risk, structuring the perception of risks. We propose that disputed risk and morality are two additional dimensions that are relevant to describe the cognitive representation of societal risks. Disputed risk captures two aspects of a societal risk: first, that consensus about scientific evidence is low, and second, that the public debate about the risk issue is highly controversial. Morality refers to judgments of reprehensibility, capturing the fact that societal risks frequently involve violations of moral principles. In a survey study employing two samples, a household sample (N = 418) and a student sample (N = 88), participants evaluated 24 societal risks on 23 psychometric scales intended to assess the four constructs dread, unknown risk, disputed risk, and morality. Principal component analyses yielded three dimensions: a common dimension of dread and morality, a disputed risk dimension, and unknown risk. We also assessed judgments of overall riskiness for all risks. Morality and dread both proved to be strong and distinctive predictors of perceived overall riskiness in regression analyses; disputed risk and unknown risk, in contrast, do not play a substantial role as predictors. These findings were replicated across both samples. We conclude that disputed risk constitutes a novel and unique psychometric dimension; morality, on the other hand, coincides with dread in the cognitive representation of societal risks, while still showing a distinct and strong effect in the prediction of risk judgments.     

What aspects of demographic,personality, attitudes and perceptions of law enforcement influence self-reported likelihood of drink driving?

The aim of the current study was to examine the associations between a number of individual factors (demographic factors (age and gender), personality factors, risk-taking propensity, attitudes toward drink driving, and perceived legitimacy of drink driving enforcement) and how they influence the self-reported likelihood of drink driving. The second aim of this study was to examine the potential of attitudes mediating the relationship between risk-taking and self-reported likelihood of drink driving. In total, 293 Queensland drivers volunteered to participate in an online survey that assessed their self-reported likelihood to drink drive in the next month, demographics, traffic-related demographics, personality factors, risk-taking propensity, attitudes toward drink driving and perceived legitimacy of drink driving enforcement. An ordered logistic regression analysis was utilised to evaluate the first aim of the study; at the first step the demographic variables were entered; at step two the personality and risk-taking were entered; at the third step, the attitudes and perceptions of legitimacy variables were entered. Being a younger driver and having a high risk-taking propensity were related to self-reported likelihood of drink driving. However, when the attitudes variable was entered, these individual factors were no longer significant; with attitudes being the most important predictor of self-reported drink driving likelihood. A significant mediation model was found with the second aim of the study, such that attitudes mediated the relationship between risk-taking and self-reported likelihood of drink driving. Considerable effort and resources are utilised by traffic authorities to reducing drink driving on the Australian road network. Notwithstanding these efforts, some participants still had some positive attitudes toward drink driving and reported that they were likely to drink drive in the future. These findings suggest that more work is needed to address attitudes regarding the dangerousness of drink driving.     

Play it again: how game-based learning improves flow in Accounting and Marketing education

ABSTRACT

Flow theory is used in this article [Csikszentmihalyi, M. (1990). The domain of creativity ] to determine whether gamified resources, named Accountingame and Marketingame, possess certain characteristics which, in the form of educational games, increase the performance of Portuguese undergraduate students attending Accounting (N?=?816) and Marketing (N?=?195) curricular units for the first time. A structural equation model was used to look into the direct effects of the characteristics of the game, such as Concentration, Clarity, Feedback, Challenge, Autonomy, Social Interaction, and Perceived Learning, on students’ learning Flow. Results clearly show that, with the exception of Feedback, all the other dimensions were Flow predictors. Overall, by introducing games into the curriculum, students’ motivation and interest increased and demonstrates that games can be an effective way for students to learn.     

Expert opinion and probabilistic volcanic risk assessment

We present data from an international survey of scientists working at volcanic observatories concerning eruption likelihoods. The scientists were asked a range of questions using different types of phrasing. The data suggest that the phrasing of questions affects the ways in which probabilities are estimated. In total, 71% of respondents (N = 70) exhibited some form of inconsistency in their answers between and/or within different question formats. The data also allow for an analysis of the use of scaling in probabilistic assessment, and the use of quantitative versus verbal risk measurements. However, some respondents were uncomfortable with providing any numerical probability estimate, perhaps suggesting that they considered the uncertainty too high for meaningful judgements to be made.     

Risk perceptions,moral attitudes,and anticipated guilt in US consumers’ climate change behavioral intentions

Various reports and research have documented the risks of global warming on humans and the non-human environment. A growing amount of media coverage positions the fight against global warming as a moral issue. However, additional research needs to be conducted regarding whether individuals’ risk perceptions are related to their moral attitudes and whether their moral attitudes toward global warming are associated with their behavioral intentions to alleviate global warming. Based on a cross-sectional survey (N = 572) and structural equation modeling analysis, the present investigation situated moral attitudes within a larger theoretical framework (i.e. the theory of planned behavior). Results found that the American public’s moral attitudes were predicted by subjective norms and risk to others and the environment, but not risk to themselves. Moral attitudes, in turn, predicted anticipated guilt. Collectively, moral attitudes, self-efficacy, anticipated guilt, and consideration of future consequences predicted one’s intentions to engage in behaviors to alleviate global warming. Both theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Using community-based,ethnographic methods to examine risk perceptions and actions of low-income,first-time mothers in a post-spill environment

Following the 2010 Gulf Oil Spill, area pregnant women were thought to be at-risk for poor health outcomes from the stress of managing health actions in this post-disaster environment. Research directed by an ongoing community–academic partnership sought to explore the specific role of culture in environmental risk protection actions among low-income pregnant women. As a part of the first-phase of a mixed-methods cultural study, community health workers (CHWs) used freelisting methods to survey low-income, first-time mother (n = 20) for the threats in the environment and relevant protective actions. Then, a separate pile sort activity (n = 31) was used to further investigate these cultural topics. Results elicited a diverse range of threats, protective actions, and sources of support across socio-demographic groups. Results also showed a culturally tailored conceptualization of threats in the environment. Exploring beliefs among a diverse population helps to uncover cultural differences in a population. Results will aid in developing culturally tailored policies and interventions, and increase the relevance of such interventions to address community concerns. Moreover, incorporating CHWs into the research process enhanced researcher literacy, and fostered mutual trust between the community and researchers.     

Investment barriers and international asset pricing

In this article a multicountry model of international asset pricing is developed. This model incorporates a more general representation of the degree of segmentation in the international capital market. Specifically,N types of investors andN classes of securities are postulated. In general, thenth (n=1, 2, 3, ...N) type of investor has access to all security markets up to and including thenth class. Using the standard mean-variance framework, closed form equilibrium risk return relationships are obtained for all classes of securities. It is also shown that class 1 securities are priced as if markets are integrated, classn (n=2, 3 ...N) securities commandn different risk premia. Finally, the nature of the model specification allows us to investigate the effects of partial integration on investor welfare. It is shown that, in general, all investors prefer full integration to any form of partial integration.     

A quantitative assessment of the insider/outsider dimension of the cultural theory of risk and place

This paper examines two hypotheses of risk perception: cultural theory's distinction between insiders and outsiders and the idea that risk perceptions and their determinants differ substantially from one place to the next for the same point‐source hazard. These hypotheses are juxtaposed in cross‐tabulations and logistic regression models with competing explanations of perceived risk in communities living with technological environmental hazards: sound management, benefits, fair facility siting and sociodemographics. The data come from a telephone survey of 455 residents in Swan Hills (n = 173), Fort Assiniboine (n = 171) and Kinuso (n = 111), Alberta, Canada who are all near a large‐scale hazardous waste treatment facility. Considerable support is found for the insider/outsider thesis in terms of the highest ranked information sources and trust to ensure safety. Place differences are clear where, for example, the least facility‐related concern is in Swan Hills (31%) 12 km away, the highest is in Kinuso (81%) 70 km away and moderately high concern is in Fort Assiniboine (62%) which is also 70 km away. This study highlights the importance of fair facility siting, the need to go beyond cultural bias analysis when studying the cultural theory of risk, and suggests further exploration of the notion of tailoring risk communication that is place specific, and emphasizes channels that may be defined as ‘outsider’ and ‘insider’.     

The role of negative associations and trust in risk perception of new hydrogen systems

In this study the moderating role of trust and negative affective associations on the inverse relationship between risk and benefit judgements is investigated. A survey (N = 406) was held in the Netherlands on the public perception of new hydrogen systems, during the time that a demonstration project with hydrogen buses was being undertaken. The data of the survey show that for the group of respondents with a negative evaluation of trust in actors involved, an inverse relationship between risk and benefit judgements can be observed. Furthermore, for the group of respondents that had elicited negative affective spontaneous associations with hydrogen in general, the inverse relationship was also found. The inverse relationship between risk and benefit judgements was not observed in the group not making these spontaneous associations. The strongest negative correlation between risk and benefit judgements was found for those who had a negative evaluation of trust and had elicited negative affective spontaneous associations. In all cases the general affective evaluation of hydrogen systems was the mediating factor in this inverse relationship between risk and benefit judgements. These findings provide evidence for the moderating role of trust and negative affective associations on the observed inverse relationship between perceived benefit and perceived risk.     

Psychological determinants of financial buffer saving: the influence of financial risk tolerance and regulatory focus

With governments redistributing more responsibilities unto citizens, individuals have an increasing need for financial resources acting as a buffer against life’s setbacks and unexpected expenditures. The purpose of this study was to examine psychological determinants of saving for a financial buffer, for which a theoretical model was formulated based on the theory of planned behaviour with three new, domain-specific psychological constructs: financial risk tolerance, regulatory focus and perceived saving barriers. Data were collected with an online questionnaire that utilised convenience and snowball sampling to target both students and working individuals (N = 272). Regression analyses offered support for the proposed model, showing that participants’ financial risk tolerance (i.e. an individual’s attitude towards financial risk taking) was significantly associated with their subjective financial knowledge and regulatory focus. Furthermore, perceived financial self-efficacy and financial risk tolerance both predicted participants’ intention to save for a financial buffer. In turn, perceived financial self-efficacy and saving intention predicted self-reported saving behaviour. Importantly, perceived saving barriers mediated the relationship between saving intention and self-reported saving behaviour. In line with the proposed model, results also showed that a specific attitude-based construct (financial risk tolerance) is a considerably better predictor of saving intention than general measures of attitude towards saving. This study is also the first to demonstrate that regulatory focus influences financial risk tolerance. Implications of these findings for stimulating saving behaviour are discussed.     

Transparency in the food aisle: the influence of procedural justice on views about labeling GM foods

Issues of transparency lay at the center of the debate surrounding the labeling of genetically modified (GM) food products in the USA. These issues include not only the argument that consumers should be allowed to make purchasing choices based on full disclosure of product ingredients but also that they should have access to the process that makes decisions about labeling. This study examines the influence of procedural justice on perceived decision legitimacy and decision support regarding GM food labeling decisions. Using a 2 × 2 factorial design, participants recruited from an online Qualtrics panel (N = 450) were randomly assigned to read a fictitious news article about an agricultural company’s decision about whether to label their food products as having GM ingredients. Articles varied by the company’s labeling decision (label versus no label) and whether the company listened to public input prior to making the decision (public input versus no public input). The results showed significant main effects on decision support and perceived legitimacy for articles that mentioned public input. Specifically, when participants read articles stating that the company made its decision after listening to public input, they were more supportive of the decision and perceived the decision as more legitimate. Moreover, this main effect occurred irrespective of whether or not the company’s decision was to label GM foods. Our results confirm the influence of procedural justice perceptions in fostering support and perceived legitimacy for controversial risk-related decisions.     

Hazard avoidance,symbolic and practical: the case of Americans’ reported responses to Ebola

Reducing potential dangers by changing routine behavior to avoid certain people, places, or technologies can be prudent, but reporting avoidance also can be symbolic. This study probed Americans’ reactions to Ebola from December 2014 to May 2015 with a longitudinal study (final n = 625), plus a representative sample in May: How much did they claim to avoid West Africans, commercial flights, Ebola-associated cities, and four other targets? What factors affected self-reported avoidance? Did people with opportunities to implement avoidance report more (e.g. frequent flyers can change their routine behavior more to avoid commercial flights than can infrequent flyers)? The December 2014 survey found most people never considered avoidance, but substantial minorities claimed acting or intending to avoid each target; substantial majorities of May 2015 respondents reported avoidance intentions if a new Ebola outbreak occurred in Africa or the United States. Perceptions of personal risk, concern about infection, and following Ebola news were primary factors in reported avoidance, with temporal reversals (e.g. news following increased avoidance in December but decreased it in May). Opportunity enhanced reported avoidance in December 2014 by indirect effects through personal risk, concern, and news following, but decreased avoidance intentions in May 2015 through direct effects of opportunity on avoidance. Temporal shifts in avoidance reports and associations seem consistent with objective declines in Ebola cases, perhaps mediated by changes in news coverage. Further consideration of avoidance behavior and the role of opportunity could enhance hazard management.     

Scaling in financial prices: IV. Multifractal concentration

In the Brownian model, even the largest of N successive daily price increments contributes negligibly to the overall sample variance. The resulting 'absent' concentration justifies the role of variance in measuring Brownian volatility.

Mandelbrot introduced in 1963 an alternative 'mesofractal model', in which the population variance is infinite. A significant proportion of the overall sample variance comes from an absolutely small number of large contributions, expressing a 'hard' form of concentration.

To achieve a prescribed proportion of the overall measured variance, those 1900 and 1963 models require numbers of days of the order of N ¹ and N ⁰, respectively. This paper shows that an intermediate possibility exists: a new and very flexible 'soft' form of concentration is provided by the 'multifractal' model Mandelbrot introduced in 1997. The standard 'extreme values' theory applies to mesofractals but multifractals behave very differently. The single largest contribution to sample variance is asymptotically negligible; however, an arbitrarily high proportion of the overall variance is contributed by a number of days of the order of N ^D, where 0<D<1. The characteristic exponent D, a fractal dimension, is a consequence of scaling. It allows 'softness' to be modulated between the unrealistic extremes N ¹ and N ⁰. As N increases, so does the absolute number N ^D, but the relative number N ^D/N decreases to zero. As a result, the bulk of the significant effects concentrates in a small proportion of cases. (This is a finite approximation of a set of measure zero, but mathematical refinements do not matter in this paper.)