民元后华商证券交易所的创设动机及其脆弱性

近代华商证券交易所具有极高的脆弱性,这是交易所过度投机和违规经营而且得不到有效遏制的结果;而华商证券交易所浓重的投机性和道德风险,又与其复杂的创设动机有关。考察民元以后华商证券交易所的脆弱性、投机性与其创设动机之间的关系,是为了以史为鉴,确保现实中国的交易所有正确的经营方向,谨慎选择交易所的组织制度,弱化交易所的逐利性,强化交易所的自律功能,淡化交易所的政策市色彩,使我国证券交易所能够持续、稳定和有力地服务于市场经济建设。     

Locally Greater Vulnerability to Background Risk

Willingness to take on risk is influenced by the presence of fair and unfair background risks for decision makers who are risk vulnerable as defined by Gollier and Pratt [1996], for these decision makers are more risk averse when they possess such an uninsurable background risk. We present an alternative derivation of the index of local vulnerability based on Diamond and Stiglitz [1974] compensated increases in risk, such that risk aversion increases with the introduction of any small fair background risk if and only if the index of local vulnerability is positive. We establish that the increase in risk aversion is greater for those who are more vulnerable as measured by the index of local vulnerability.     

Managing vulnerability: the implementation of vulnerability reduction measures

Activities involving hazardous substances may cause safety risks to the environment. In addition to hazard reduction measures, such as implementing safety management systems at hazardous facilities, and exposure reduction measures, such as employing safe distances between vulnerable objects and hazardous activities, safety risks can be further minimised through the implementation of vulnerability reduction measures. In the area near where activities involving dangerous substances are being carried out, measures can be taken to reduce the vulnerability, such as increasing the possibilities for emergency response and evacuation. This paper examines what the issues influencing the consideration and implementation of vulnerability reduction measures are. This is done through an examination of land use planning projects in the Netherlands and an analysis of two examinations from the National Human Environment and Transport Inspectorate on the implementation of vulnerability reduction measures to discuss the representativeness of the findings for the Netherlands. The examinations, including the examinations of the Inspectorate, show that the consideration of vulnerability reduction measures is narrower than required by Dutch rules and regulations. Additionally, the implementation of measures is limited. Only half of the vulnerability reduction measures that are adopted in land use plans are actually implemented. Important factors that hampered the consideration and adoption of measures are the restrictions of actual rules and regulation with respect to the enforceability of measures, the limited expertise of those involved and the lack of clarity in tasks and roles regarding the consideration and monitoring of vulnerability reduction measures. More fundamentally, the effectiveness of measures and the need for further risk reduction was discussed. Consequently, more insight is required into the costs and benefits of vulnerability reduction measures and if a more explicit consideration of vulnerability in land use planning practices is desired, elaboration will be needed in the areas of planning legislations, procedures and expertise.     

GIS-based DRASTIC method for groundwater vulnerability assessment: a review

Groundwater vulnerability is a burning issue all over the world due to the deterioration of groundwater level and increasing contamination which poses serious detrimental risk to the environment. To identify this risk, extensive research has been carried out to assess the groundwater vulnerability by using different methods. Generally, the process-based method, statistical method, and overlay & index methods are used in this regard. DRASTIC method is one type of overlay & index method for vulnerability assessment. This paper represents a comprehensive review of available literature on the applications of Geographic Information System (GIS)-based DRASTIC method for groundwater vulnerability assessment. Also, some other types of overlay & index methods are compared with the DRASTIC method. This study discusses the rescaling of rating ranges and modification of DRASTIC parameters, and shows the comparison of DRASTIC method with other vulnerability assessment methods. In addition, this study identifies some research gaps on the present state of groundwater vulnerability assessment and proposes some research needs for further studies. The findings of this study indicate that the combination of GIS and DRASTIC are more viable for groundwater vulnerability assessment. Furthermore, modified DRASTIC method can be used for agricultural, arid, semi-arid, and basaltic regions.     

Variance Vulnerability, Background Risks, and Mean-Variance Preferences

An agent with two-parameter, mean-variance preferences is called variance vulnerable if an increase in the variance of an exogenous, independent background risk induces the agent to choose a lower level of risky activities. Variance vulnerability resembles the notion of risk vulnerability in the expected utility (EU) framework. First, we characterize variance vulnerability in terms of two-parameter utility functions. Second, we identify the multivariate normal as the only distribution such that EU- and two-parameter approach are compatible when independent background risks prevail. Third, presupposing normality, we show that—analogously to risk vulnerability—temperance is a necessary, and standardness and convex risk aversion are sufficient conditions for variance vulnerability.     

A New Cluster-Based Financial Vulnerability Indicator and Its Application to Household Stress Testing in Croatia

In this paper, we propose a new approach to household financial vulnerability analysis employing cluster technique in the identification of potentially vulnerable households. The cluster-based vulnerability indicator is applied to stress testing with the specific aim of assessing the extent to which the prolonged economic downturn following the Great Recession of 2008–9 hurt indebted households in Croatia. We compare the results based on the new approach with those based on traditional methods. Interest rate shocks have a stronger effect on household vulnerability in the traditional approach, whereas decrease in employment is found to be more disruptive in the cluster-based approach.     

“How are you vulnerable?”: Using participation for vulnerability analysis in emergency planning

Scientists in many fields of research have developed models, theories, and concepts attempting to grasp and manage dangers that are often difficult to imagine. Among the different perspectives, the science and technology studies (STS) vulnerability approach seems very promising. Relying on a constructivist paradigm, it is based on an inductive collection and analysis of a wide range of factors, with a particular focus on cultural factors and actual day-to-day practices. In this paper, we present the roots of this approach and we display findings based on three case studies exploring emergency planning in three different contexts (a city near a SEVESO plant, a school near a nuclear plant, and a city confronted to multiple catastrophic scenarios). The cases studies were realized by conducting three Focus Groups with different types of stakeholders (citizens, teachers, firemen, decision-makers, etc.). After presenting the results of the case studies, we discuss how stakeholders’ participation can inform such type of vulnerability analysis in the context of emergency planning. We argue that participation fosters a deep understanding of actual safety governance practices which allows innovative results to emerge as well as it initiates a learning process among the participants. It contributes to questioning the relations between decision-makers, experts, and citizens. It has the potential of bypassing the positivist and quantitative rationale of safety, and thus, of redefining the vulnerability governance. As a conclusion, we question the role of such STS vulnerability approach within the actual vulnerability governance.     

A composite indicator model to assess natural disaster risks in industry on a spatial level

In the event of natural disasters, industrial production sites can be affected by both direct physical damage and indirect damage. The indirect damage, which often exceeds the direct ones in value, mainly arises from business interruptions resulting from the impairment of information and material flows as well as from domino effects in interlaced supply chains. The importance of industry for society and the domino effects often result in severe economic, social, and environmental consequences of industrial disasters making industrial risk management an important task for risk managers at the administrative level (e.g. civil protection authorities). Since the possible industrial disaster damage depends not only on hazard and exposure but also on the vulnerability of a system, an effective and efficient industrial risk management requires information about the system’s regionalized vulnerability. This paper presents a new methodology for structural industrial vulnerability assessment based on production factors that enables to assess the regional industrial disaster vulnerability. In order to capture industry-specific vulnerability factors and to account for the processes underlying regional industrial vulnerability, a two-stage approach is developed. This approach combines a composite indicator model to assess sector-specific vulnerability indices (V_s) with a new regionalization method. The composite indicator model is based on methodologies from the field of multicriteria decision analysis (MultiAttribute Value Theory) and the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Method is applied to correct the (V_s) for interdependencies among the indicators. Finally, the developed approach is applied to an exemplar case study and the industrial vulnerability of 44 administrative districts in the German federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg is assessed.     

Public policy and administration in a vulnerable society: regulatory reforms initiated by a Norwegian commission

The aims are to give a contribution to a more enlightened and articulated framework for designing safety and rescue institutions and regulatory regimes in a post-modern vulnerable society. The discussions are based on a case study of a Governmental report on ‘A vulnerable society’ (Norway), and the main points at issue in the follow-up public debate. The main points at issue discussed are: (1) problem identification and definition, (2) principles for organizing, (3) change strategies, (4) public and/or private/market control, (5) conflicting models of reality, and finally (6) some overall problems. The reviews of these issues are brief, but give ideas for further studies. Compared to the situation in a number of other countries the Norwegian case is not unique, i.e. the topics discussed have some general relevance for public administration and policy in societal risk and vulnerability management. However, to evaluate alternative approaches and strategies to risk legislation and regulation comparative international studies are needed, as well as in-depth studies within countries related to specific aspects of political culture and specific contingency factors.     

Ripple effects of the 2011 Japan earthquake on international stock markets

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the impacts of Japan’s 2011 earthquake on 19 stock market sector returns in Japan and its trading partners both in the short and long run. Using an event study methodology, we find that the impact of this event was not limited to Japan or industries directly hit by the earthquake. Our short-run analysis indicates that all sector indices in Japan and many in its trading partners were affected by the earthquake. The direction of the impact on trading partners, however, was not the same for all sectors; while the earthquake adversely affected the majority of the sectors analyzed, some sectors benefited. Further, we find that the magnitude of the abnormal returns did not systematically vary across trading partners according to their shares in Japan’s trade flow. The long-run analysis reveals how the consequences of the earthquake unfolded beyond the event date.     

Epistemic uncertainty in catastrophe models—A base level examination

In this paper, we evaluate sources of variation in the output from catastrophe models with emphasis on the epistemic uncertainty in modeled expected losses. Using building data from the 34 buildings that comprised the California Northridge campus at the time of the Northridge earthquake, we explore the sensitivity of estimated average annual losses obtained from a cat model to the quality of model input. Namely, we consider how changes in four key model assumptions—building locations, building height, construction type, and the event catalog—affect cat model loss estimates. We find that accurate information on some input variables is critical (e.g., all steel construction) and the interaction between input variables should not be discounted. Our results have important implications for insurer decisions that are informed by the output of catastrophe models—product pricing, portfolio diversification and underwriting decisions, negotiations and discussions with regulators and similar activities with capital market participants. The financial impact of improving data quality and targeting data related to key model inputs for that insurer when at scale is not trivial. As such, this paper provides an impetus for establishing and improving benchmarks for model inputs.     

Stock return expectations in the credit market

In this paper we compute long-term stock return expectations (across the business cycle) for individual firms using information backed out from the credit derivatives market. Our methodology builds on previous theoretical results in the literature on stock return expectations and, empirically, we demonstrate a close relationship between credit-implied stock return expectations and future realized stock returns. We also find stock portfolios selected based on credit-implied stock return forecasts to beat equally- and value-weighted portfolios of the same stocks out-of-sample. Contrary to many other studies, our expectations/predictions are made at the individual stock level rather than at the portfolio level, and no parameter estimations using historical stock price- or credit spread observations are needed.     

Central banks’ preferences and banking sector vulnerability

According to “Schwartz's conventional wisdom” and what has been called “divine coincidence”, price stability should imply macroeconomic and financial stability. However, in light of the global financial crisis, with monetary policy focused on price stability, scholars have held that banking and financial risks were largely unaddressed. According to this alternative view, the belief in divine coincidence turns out to be benign neglect. The objective of this paper is to test Schwartz's hypothesis against the benign neglect hypothesis. The priority assigned to the inflation goal is proxied by the central banks’ conservatism (CBC) index proposed by Levieuge and Lucotte (2014), here extended to a large sample of 73 countries from 1980 to 2012. Banking sector vulnerability is measured by six alternative indicators that are frequently employed in the literature on early warning systems. Our results indicate that differences in monetary policy preferences robustly explain cross-country differences in banking vulnerability and validate the benign neglect hypothesis, in that a higher level of CBC implies a more vulnerable banking sector.     

基于动态因子Copula模型的我国银行系统性风险度量

本文基于2007年至2019年我国14家上市银行的股票收益率,构建偏态t-分布动态因子Copula模型,利用时变荷载因子刻画单家银行与整个系统的相关性,计算联合风险概率作为系统性风险整体水平的度量,基于关联性视角提出了新的单家机构系统脆弱性和系统重要性度量指标——系统脆弱性程度和系统重要性程度。该方法充分考虑了银行个体差异性和系统的内在关联性以及收益率的厚尾性和非对称性,从而能够捕捉到更多的信息且兼具时效性。研究表明:银行机构在风险聚集时期相关程度更大,联合风险概率能够准确识别出系统性风险事件且在我国推行宏观审慎评估体系以后有明显降低;整体而言,大型商业银行系统重要性水平最高,同时风险抗压能力也最强;本文使用的度量方法降低了数据获取成本且更具时效性,有助于为宏观审慎差异化监管工作提供借鉴和参考。     

Risk mitigation of post-earthquake fire in urban buildings

Post-earthquake fire (PEF) is considered one of the most high risk and complicated problems affecting buildings in urban areas and can cause even more damage than the earthquake itself. However, most standards and codes ignore the implications of PEF and so buildings are not normally designed with PEF in mind. What is needed is for PEF factors to be routinely scrutinized and codified as part of the design process. A systematic application is presented as a means of mitigating the risk of PEF in urban buildings. This covers both existing buildings, in terms of retrofit solutions, and those yet to be designed, where a PEF factor is proposed. To ensure the mitigation strategy meets the defined criteria, a minimum time is defined – the safety guaranteed time target – where the safety of the inhabitants in a building is guaranteed.     

Social vulnerability indexes as planning tools: beyond the preparedness paradigm

This article draws from the experience of the ongoing drafting of the Regional Plan of the Centre Region of Portugal, and the empirical application of the Social Vulnerability Index proposed by Susan Cutter. It consists in the construction of an index of social vulnerability to natural and technological hazards and to social risks for all the municipalities of the region. Methodologically, it extends the vulnerability analysis to technological hazards and social risks, as a more encompassing view is necessary for the elaboration of prevention and civil protection policies. The results confirm the interactive nature of social vulnerability, and they also reflect the diffuse urbanisation and industrialisation patterns that characterise Portugal. The scattered nature of social facilities and security and health infrastructures pose specific challenges to planners concerning risk prevention and mitigation, and the elaboration of effective risk communication strategies adapted to specific hazards and risks in the studied municipalities. The article concludes with some reflections on the need to revise established paradigms of disaster analysis and emphasise the importance of pre‐event planning and the social cartography of vulnerable populations for effective prevention and security policies that take into account social inequalities and citizenship rights.     

Model specification and IPO performance: New insights from Asia

This study examines the post-issue stock price performance of initial public offerings (IPOs) from advanced and emerging Asian markets from 1991 to 2004. We provide a comparative assessment on the short- and long-term stock performance of Asian IPOs with comprehensive international evidence. We use several different methods to examine the robustness of IPO performance. Our results reveal that whilst there is initial underpricing in Asian IPOs, the existence of long-run underperformance for the Asian IPOs depends resoundingly on the methodology used for assessment.     

Climate transition risk,profitability and stock prices

We investigate whether climate transition risk is reflected in the financial performance and cross-section pricing of publicly-traded European and US firms. Using a firm-level carbon risk score (CRS) that assesses the vulnerability of a firm's value to transition to a low-carbon economy, we find that firms with the lowest transition risk exposures perform better financially, and that European firms are more sensitive to transition risks than US firms. We also find that stocks with low exposure to transition risk offer greater returns to investors, consistent with the fact that stock prices of firms do not adequately reflect underlying climate transition risk. Relative financial performance of less vulnerable firms and underreaction effects to transition risk decreased after COP21.     

Volatility of stock price as predicted by patent data: An MGARCH perspective

This paper proposes to model stock price volatility and variations in innovation effort using a Multivariate GARCH structure designed to extract information for risk prediction. The salient feature is that the model order, alongside other parameters, is endogenously determined by the estimation procedures. Using stock prices of U.S. computer firms, it is found that the model can pick up the correlation between the two variables and aid in producing accurate Value-at-Risk estimates.     

证券分析师VS统计模型:证券分析师盈余预测的相对准确性及其决定因素

本文使用2005年35家券商对我国上市公司做出的每股盈余预测数据,考察了证券分析师盈余预测相对于统计模型的相对准确性及其决定因素。我们发现,我国证券分析师做出的盈余预测,同以年度历史数据为基础的统计模型得出的盈余预测相比,预测误差较小,证券分析师盈余预测具有一定的优势;但同某些以季度历史数据为基础的统计模型得出的盈余预测相比,预测误差较大,证券分析师盈余预测不具有优势。我们同时考察了决定证券分析师盈余预测相对准确性的决定因素。我们发现,公司每股盈余的波动性越大,公司上市越晚,跟踪公司的分析师越多,证券分析师的优势就越大。我们的研究对证券分析师以及投资者都有一定的启示作用。