A study on the temporal dynamics of tourism demand in the Asia Pacific Region

Using the monthly statistics of tourists from four different origins (America, Europe, Asia and Oceania) among seven places in the Asia Pacific region for a period from January 1991 to December 2005, we investigate these 28 time series using the Holt‐Winters method, artificial neural network and numerical graphical plots. Interesting comparisons on level fluctuations, trends and seasonal patterns of the time series among the Asia Pacific region are explored. These findings enable us to understand more about the temporal aspect of tourism demand in the Asia Pacific region. In sum, this paper lays out the importance of understanding the trend and seasonality indices in details. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling tourist flow association for tourism demand forecasting

The purpose of this study is to examine tourism demand for Singapore from 1995 to 2013 by six major origin countries which belong to three different regions. Unlike prior tourism research, we take into account the dependence relations among the different tourist flows via copula. Copula is a statistical model of dependence and measurement of association. Specifically, we investigate the association between two tourist flows in each region. Based on empirical copula estimation, the Frank function has been identified as the most appropriate to capture the pairwise dependence structures of tourist flows. The copula-based approach combined with econometric models is proposed for tourism demand analysis that can be used to predict tourist arrivals. We apply the copula-ARDL and copula-ECM frameworks to generate joint forecasts of tourist arrivals from three regions. The findings show that the forecast performance of the Frank copula-based model outperforms the benchmark model which corresponds to the independence structure (no association) of tourist flows.     

Integrated beach resorts,informal tourism commerce and the 2004 tsunami: Laguna Phuket in Thailand

Issues of importance related to informal tourism commerce are explored in this paper with particular reference to the case of Laguna Phuket, an integrated beach resort in Thailand. The extent and nature of informal trade at the destination is analysed before and after the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, based upon data collected during fieldwork. The sector is shown to display distinctive qualities, including resilience in the face of a natural disaster, and to have a role in purpose‐built as well as conventional resorts. Its relationship with the formal tourism industry is also discussed and this emerges as close, yet with potential for both conflict and cooperation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of economic policy on international tourism demand: the case of Abenomics

Since the 2008 global financial crisis and resulting recession, many countries have been following unconventional monetary policies. Little information is known on how these policies may influence tourism demand. This study starts to fill this gap by investigating the impact of the Japanese economic policy known as Abenomics on South Koreans’ travel to Japan, the largest inbound market for Japan. Per capita gross domestic product, relative prices, and exchange rates are significant determinants of Japanese inbound tourism. As these variables have been influenced by Abenomics, one can infer that Abenomics is associated with a significant increase in tourist arrivals from South Korea. Findings highlight the importance of government economic policy in stimulating international tourism demand through its impact on the economy.     

The sensitivity of tourism demand to exchange rate changes: an application to Swiss overnight stays in Austrian mountain villages during the winter season

This paper investigates the impact of the depreciation of the euro against the Swiss franc on tourism demand. The data consist of Swiss overnight stays in West Austrian ski resorts during the winter season. Using a panel error correction model, we found that the elasticity of tourism demand with respect to exchange rates is significantly larger than unity in absolute terms. In particular, the real exchange rate elasticity ranges between ?1.5 using the dynamic panel data model and ?2.2 for the long difference regression model. This indicates that Swiss winter tourists are highly sensitive to changes in exchange rates and relative prices. High elevation ski resorts benefit most from the depreciation of the euro against the Swiss franc. For Austrian ski resorts, tentative estimates suggest that the depreciation of the euro against the Swiss franc has led to an additional 173,000 overnight stays over the last four winter seasons.     

Tourism demand modelling: some issues regarding unit roots,co‐integration and diagnostic tests

This paper investigates the all important issue of diagnostic tests, including unit roots and cointegration, in the tourism demand modelling literature. The origins of this study lie in the apparent lack in the tourism economics literature of detail concerning the diagnostic test aspect. Study of this deficiency has suggested that previous literature on tourism demand modelling may be divided into two categories: the pre‐1995 and post‐1995 studies. It was found that the pre‐1995 and some post‐1995 studies have ignored unit root tests and co‐integration and, hence, are vulnerable to the so‐called ‘spurious regression’ problem. In highlighting the key diagnostic tests reported by post‐1995 studies, this paper contends that there is no need to report the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) test, which is applicable only to financial market analysis where the dependent variable is return on an asset. More generally, heteroskedasticity is not seen as a problem in time‐series data. However, the reporting of a greater than necessary range of diagnostic tests — some of which do not have any theoretical justification with regard to tourism demand analysis — does not diminish the precision of the results or the model. This paper should appeal to scholars involved in tourism demand modelling. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The restructuring of winter sports resorts in the French Alps: problems,processes and policies

In the French Alps the last decade has been dominated by efforts to regenerate winter sports resorts. This follows an extended period of rapid growth, resulting in the demographic and economic revival of many alpine communities. However, flaws in the process of development were exposed in the late 1980s. Given the huge scale of investment in tourist facilities and the numerous livelihoods dependent on winter sports, restructuring became vital. The present paper analyses the causes of recent problems and evaluates related remedial policies, showing how implementing change can be complicated by the numerous actors involved and their frequently divergent strategies. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Easing the adoption of agent-based modelling (ABM) in tourism research

Agent-based modelling (ABM) is an emerging approach in tourism research. Despite the natural fit between theories of tourism as a complex, interconnected system, and the generative approach supported in ABM, there has been only limited integration within mainstream tourism research. This research letter reports on a recent gathering of tourism ABM researchers to define the main challenges that face the adoption of ABM in tourism research. These include technical, communications, and novelty issues. In response to these challenges, three potential strategies to ease adoption are outlined: education, awareness, and interdisciplinary teams. These findings are framed as a call for increased attention to the fit of ABM within tourism research, and a framework for negotiating constraints to adoption of this technology.     

A study of the non‐economic determinants in tourism demand

Traditionally, many studies have attempted to use economic demand models. This paper stresses on the influence of non‐economic factors on tourism demand. Some researchers have suggested that tourists from different origins have various cultural and nationalistic backgrounds, and they may interpret visual imagery and experiences differently. Aligning with this suggestion, we have investigated different underlying factors of tourism demand from four continents (Asia, the Americas, Europe and Oceania). Statistical data are collected from international organisations and 135 countries were covered. Our results showed that there are differences and similarities among the factors in determining the tourism demand. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

International tourism demand to Finnish Lapland in the early winter season

This paper investigates the determinants of international overnight stays to Finnish Lapland in the early winter season. The data are based on major winter destinations for the period 1996–2014 and are distinguished by nine major visitor countries. During the sample period, international overnight stays in December increased rapidly with a growth rate of nine per cent per year on average. Dynamic panel data models show that the effect of natural snow conditions on overnight stays varies across countries of origin. The amount of snow in December has a significant impact on overnight stays of visitors coming from neighbouring countries (Russia and Sweden). In contrast, snow conditions do not play a role for visitors from distant countries (the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Spain and Switzerland). Economic factors (real income and real exchange rates) play a larger role for these countries.     

Congestion affecting the dynamic of tourism demand: evidence from the most popular destinations in Spain

In this study, we propose a dynamic econometric model for tourism demand which takes into account the implications of the Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) theory on tourism demand. Unlike other dynamic models, in our specification the effect of the lagged demand on the current tourism demand is not constant, but dependent on congestion. We estimate the model using disaggregated data from the most visited Spanish municipalities for the period 2006–2015. Two panel data estimations are carried out: one with the coastal tourist resorts and the other one with the inland municipalities. The results show that tourism congestion reduces the positive previous tourist effect on current arrivals, suggesting that increasing congestion could worsen the attraction of a tourist destination. Congestion is more negatively perceived in inland destinations than coastal ones. Finally, a strong persistence in tourism demand for coastal destinations is shown.     

Modelling dependence between tourism demand and exchange rate using the copula-based GARCH model

This paper investigates dependence between tourism demand and exchange rate, using the case of China, and from a new perspective by using copula–GARCH models. The empirical results show that the volatility of exchange rate is not a determinant factor in fluctuation of China's inbound tourism demand from the countries being studied. Furthermore, only Russia exhibits risk-adverse behaviour with extreme SUR depreciation, or CNY appreciation associated with an extreme decline in arrivals. Third, introducing the tail dependence and dynamic dependence between growth rates of tourism demand and exchange rate add much to the explanatory ability of the model. The findings of this study have important implications for destination manager and travel agent as it helps to understand the impact of exchange rates on China inbound tourism demand and provide a complementary academic approach on evaluating the role of exchange rates in the international tourism demand model.     

Network dynamics of tourism development in South Korea

This study utilizes network analysis to trace the evolution in the organizations of tourism development during South Korea’s transition from a developing to a developed country spanning the period from 1945 to 1999. This is studied by examining changes within a network of organizations as their means and objectives evolve. Data are drawn from news articles that deal with tourism and development from 1945 to 1999, and coded into organizations, development-related means, and objectives. Two-mode and a one-mode metric network analysis and correspondence analysis of coded data were undertaken. The results show the dynamic nature of networks interacting among organizations along with their means and objectives. Furthermore, this study states that the “social embeddedness” of the tourism network became stronger over time, leading to further development opportunities.     

Modelling international tourism demand and volatility in small island tourism economies

Small island tourism economies (SITEs) vary in their size, land area, location, narrow resource bases, economic development, overwhelming reliance on tourism and consistent inflow of foreign direct investment for economic growth. Small island tourism economics differ in their ethnic diversity, political systems, economic and environmental vulnerability, ecological fragility and the risks facing investors. Owing to natural disasters, ethnic conflicts, crime and the threat of global terrorism, there have been dramatic changes in the arrivals of international tourists to SITEs. These variations in international tourism demand to SITEs, particularly the conditional variance (or volatility) in international tourist arrivals, have not previously been analysed in the tourism research literature. An examination of the conditional volatility of international tourist arrivals is essential for policy analysis and marketing purposes. This paper models the conditional mean and conditional variance of the logarithm of monthly international tourist arrivals and the growth rate (or log‐difference) in the monthly international tourist arrivals for six SITEs, namely Barbados, Cyprus, Dominica, Fiji, Maldives and Seychelles. Diagnostic checks of the regularity conditions of the logarithm of monthly international tourist arrivals and their growth rates suggest that the estimated univariate models of trends and volatility are statistically adequate. Therefore, the estimated models are appropriate for purposes of public and private sector management of tourism. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A system dynamics approach to explore sustainable policies for Xidi,the world heritage village

The relationships between heritage, tourism and community are complex and inter-related. Although the heritage system was initially proposed and set up for conservation, the enthusiasm for heritage conservation derives from its potential as a resource providing economic benefits, such as through the tourism industry. Although tourism development brings incentives to the heritage owners and other stakeholders to preserve the heritage, it also changes the nature and universal value of the heritage. In addition, neither the conservation of heritage nor heritage tourism necessarily brings benefits to the community. Yet, the policies are often formulated from one particular approach and lack a systematic and dynamic view and often lead to counter-intuitive results in the long run. This study attempts to develop a holistic system dynamics model of the Xidi world heritage village and analyse the interaction of the social, economic and heritage sectors to examine policies to achieve the goals of development and conservation. The study shows that conservation alone is not enough, policies which attempt to target the needs of the local community, including providing economic opportunities, can be a better choice if the development is carefully planned and effectively controlled to avoid the over-consumption of resources.     

Cultural tourism in the context of relations between mass and alternative tourism

In the initial stage of its development, cultural tourism represented one of the alternative forms of tourism, opposed to mass tourism. The beginning of the 1990s indicates a period of transformation of cultural tourism which, unlike the original orientation towards elite clientele, found a new opportunity for development in the orientation towards the mass market. Orientation to the mass market was mainly driven by supply-oriented logic, because the creation and marketing of cultural attractions became a development option for numerous destinations. Nowadays, new cultural tourism is focused on the integration of production and consumption, and increasing linkages between suppliers and consumers. Instead of passive consumption, cultural tourists demonstrate a proactive approach to meeting their needs, wanting to actively participate in creating experiences while travelling. On the other side, suppliers focus their attention on the close interaction with consumers and co-creation of high quality experiences.     

Tourists' perception of health tourism before and after COVID-19

Health tourism has received increasing attention from academic researchers from a global perspective. Although mainland China (hereafter referred to as “China”) has long been recognized as a health tourism destination, its health tourism development is still in its infancy stage. Hence, to minimize the aforementioned gap, the present study explored the perception of health tourism and effective health tourism promotion methods from the perspective of tourists before and after the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The major findings of this study showed that tourists perceived wellness tourism and medical tourism as critical activities/components after the COVID-19 pandemic.     

Mindfulness promotes sustainable tourism: the case of Uluru

Mindfulness refers to the state of being aware, taking note of what is going on within oneself, without any judgment. Mindfulness has been shown to affect decision-making, empathy, and sustainability in non-tourism contexts. We conducted an experiment to see if mindfulness can promote sustainable behaviours in a tourism context. After listening to a mindfulness-inducing audio track, participants expressed a lower preference for a group tour to Uluru, NT, Australia, that prominently featured climbing the sandstone formation as part of the package. Process data suggested that being mindful made participants more aware of the environmental and cultural consequences of their decisions. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on the many positive impacts of mindfulness on individual and social well-being – this time within a tourism context in which both mindfulness and sustainability are showing important applications as well as consequences.     

Managing complexity and change in tourism: the case of a historic city†

Europe's historic cities face many challenges, including those associated with growing pressure from tourist interest. This paper reviews the general issues for historic cities with significant tourist activity, and then examines the background, purposes and future direction of the English city of Canterbury's visitor management initiative. An open, soft systems model is used to clarify the differing significance of the initiative for selected stakeholder groups with interests in the city, its society, economy, environment and ecology. The significance of the Canterbury City Centre Initiative for other European walled and historic cities is considered briefly in the context of wider town centre management initiatives, and the linkages to wider city planning processes that it exemplifies. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Social impacts of tourism: an Australian regional case study

As the support of host communities is a precondition for a sustainable industry, regional social impact studies are a crucial input to tourism planning and decision‐making. This study assessed the social impacts of tourism in a rural region of Australia where tourism is an important sector of the economy. As well as providing data to aid regional tourism planning, this study identifies differences in personal and community‐wide impacts; advances understanding of the factors that influence residents' perceptions of tourism impacts; and assesses the degree to which tourism activity associated with protected areas contributes to the identified social impacts. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.