Commentary. 'Work first': workfare and the regulation of contingent labour markets

The paper presents a critical review of UK and US welfare-to-workstrategies, stressing their implications for changing formsof labour regulation. The favoured policy orientation - 'workfirst' - forcefully redistributes the risks and burdens of job-marketinstability from the state to unemployed individuals, the solutionto whose 'welfare dependency' is presented in terms of a one-waytransition into (low) waged work. At a systemic level, the analysissuggests that a regressive regulatory accommodation may be emergingbetween mandatory welfare-to-work programming on the one handand the lowest reaches of deregulated, 'flexible' labour marketson the other, as the destabilisation of welfare via work-activationmeasures creates a forced labour supply for contingent jobs.     

New Labour at work: long-term unemployment and the geography of opportunity

New Labour has placed great faith in active labour market policiesto address problems of long-term unemployment and poverty. Thispaper considers the effectiveness of welfare-to-work programmesin light of persistent regional employment disparities withinthe UK. It is argued that the government has proceeded froma flawed analysis of the causes and magnitude of long-term unemployment,framing the issue in terms of ‘worklessness’ andneglecting demand-side concerns of job availability and jobquality.     

Efficiency, equity, and sustainability in a water quantity-quality optimization model in the Rio Grande basin

Integrated hydrologic and economic optimization models at the basin scale provide a framework for policy design, implementation, and evaluation in water-stressed basins. Despite the considerable potential that basin scale analysis offers, few basin-wide studies have examined tradeoffs among efficiency, equity, and sustainability when analyzing the design of water resource programs. This paper develops a basin scale framework to identify hydrologic and economic impacts of alternative water pricing programs that comply with environmental regulations for protecting water quality. Key issues are examined that confront integrated hydroeconomic basin models: linking water and economics, spatial and temporal scale integration, and quantity-quality relationships. Economic efficiency is defined and measured for each of two urban water pricing arrangements that comply with urban water quality protection regulations. Alternative measures of equity are analyzed in both spatial and temporal dimensions. Sustainability is evaluated physically for protecting the water supply and financially for long-term revenue viability. The approach is illustrated from results of a dynamic nonlinear programming optimization model of water use in North America's Rio Grande basin. The model optimizes the net present value of the basin's total economic benefits subject to constraints on equity, sustainability, hydrology, and institutions. It is applied to assess impacts of a two-tiered pricing program that complies with recently implemented drinking water quality standards for the basin's two largest U.S. cities: Albuquerque, New Mexico, and El Paso, Texas. Results suggest that two-tiered pricing of urban water supply has considerable potential to perform well in meeting the aims of efficiency, equity, and sustainability. Findings provide a general framework for designing water pricing programs that comply with environmental regulations.     

2000年以后福利国家养老金体系发展趋势考察——基于“去商品化”的分析框架

文章根据"去商品化"的分析框架,对2000年以后三种福利模式国家的养老金体系发展趋势进行了考察。研究发现,社会民主主义福利模式国家的养老金体系表现出去商品化的趋势,体现了社会民主主义福利模式对社会权利及普惠主义思想的回归;自由主义福利模式国家的养老金体系呈现出继续商品化的趋势,是对1990～2000年间再商品化趋势的继续和发展,体现了自由主义福利模式对市场作用的信奉;保守主义福利模式国家的养老金体系同样表现出一定的商品化趋势,但这是各个社会群体博弈后,选择商品化手段对养老金体系进行调整的过程。     

欧债危机与资本主义福利国家新变化

欧债危机爆发后,有一种观点认为危机的原因是高福利。通过分析希腊债务危机与本国福利制度的关系,对比南北欧在危机中的不同表现,可以看出高福利制度只是债务危机的直接推手,欧债危机的发生还有其他原因。本文通过对北欧福利国家改革的历史考察以及这次债务危机中各国财政紧缩和福利改革措施的分析,探讨福利国家改革的走向和趋势。     

Regulation and the provision of quality to heterogenous consumers: The case of prospective pricing of medical services

This paper analyzes the welfare implications of fixed-price regulation of services in a model in which consumers are heterogenous and a firm can endogenously quality discriminate. We consider two different scenarios: The first scenario is when the consumer is also the payer. The second scenario is when the payer (usually the government) is not the consumer. Our major result is that fixed-price regulation causes a distributional welfare loss. We show that it is not possible for fixed-price regulation to induce providers to supply all consumer types with the first-best quality even under perfect information, under either pricing scenario. We show that high and low demand types may receive more than their respective first-best qualities, less than their first-best qualities, or one type may receive more and the other type less depending on the level of the regulated price. It is always true that when consumers are payers, quality is higher for both types than when consumers are not the payers. In this paper, we motivate and discuss the results in terms of price regulation of hospitals where consumers are patients and patient types vary by severity of illness.     

On the welfare costs of misspecified monetary policy objectives

This paper quantifies the effects on welfare of misspecified monetary policy objectives in a stylized DSGE model. We show that using inappropriate objectives generates relatively large welfare costs. When expressed in terms of ‘consumption equivalent’ units, these costs correspond to permanent decreases in steady-state consumption of up to two percent. The latter are generated by both the inappropriate choice of weights and the omission of variables. In particular, it is costly to assume an interest-rate smoothing incentive for central bankers when it is not socially optimal to do so. Finally, a parameter uncertainty decomposition indicates that uncertainty about the properties of markup shocks gives rise to the largest welfare costs.     

Contracting for tacit knowledge: the provision of technical services in technology licensing contracts

Recent research on the economic payoff from new technology has emphasized the importance of tacit knowledge or know-how. This paper shows that arm's length contract can overcome the problems in contracting for know-how by bundling complementary inputs with know-how in a technology package, and leveraging the superior enforceability of contracts over the latter. In the empirical part of this paper, the relationship between bundling and transfer of know-how is analyzed, using Indian data. The results imply that tied sales of inputs may increase the efficiency of contracts involving the transfer of know-how. A striking result, in the context of the current North-South debates on intellectual property rights, is the packaging of patents with know-how.     

古巴1990年以后的经济改革与新农民化

20世纪90年代早期,经济改革推动了古巴的社会变革,古巴进入了社会变革的新时期。社会变革的一些方面与传统的结构调整相似,而其他方面则与之有所不同。农业方面,国营农场被改造成为各种合作社,进一步细分了合作社的生产力,解放了农产品市场,以及把土地分割给小佃农。通过采访决策者和合作社的领导,并对古巴西部和东部进行调查,可以发现,20世纪90年代的古巴有两个重要特点：一是出现了“新农民化”现象;二是这两个地区的收入差距即使没有扩大,也依旧存在。然而,即使是在最贫穷的地区,小农户的收入还是比雇佣工人的平均收入要高一些,而在其他地区,则是高出许多。总的来说,古巴的经济危机迫使古巴的农业政策朝着巩固小农户地位的方向调整。     

Modelling the hidden economy and the tax-gap in New Zealand

This paper develops and estimates a structural, latent variable, model for the hidden economy in New Zealand, and a separate currency-demand model. The estimated latent variable model is used to generate an historical time-series index of hidden economic activity, which is calibrated via the information from the currency-demand model. Special attention is paid to data non-stationarity, and to diagnostic testing. Over the period 1968 to 1994, the size of the hidden economy is found to vary between 6.8% and 11.3% of measured GDP. This, in turn, implies that the total tax-gap is of the order of 6.4% to 10.2% of total tax liability in that country. Of course, not all of this foregone revenue would be recoverable, as not all of the activity in the underground economy is responsive to changes in taxation or other policies. First version received: August 1997/Final version received: March 1999     

Economies of scale and trade policy: The median voter model revisited

Why do some political economy models perform so poorly in predicting actual trade policy? Do scale economies provide the missing puzzle to our understanding of the anti-trade bias? By integrating economies of scale in production, this paper theoretically reinstates the median voter model as in Mayer [Mayer, W. (1984). Endogenous tariff formation. The American Economic Review, 74, 970–985] as a suitable political economy model in predicting trade policy. The modified model generates the scope for the anti-trade bias and predicts that sometimes economic, rather than political, considerations may lead to restrictive trade.     

Unemployment and Welfare Participation in a Structural VAR: Rethinking the 1990s in the United States

A report by the Council of Economic Advisers (1997 Council of Economic Advisers. May 1997. “Explaining the decline in welfare receipt, 1993–1996”. May, Washington, DC Executive Office of the President [Google Scholar]) is the first of a group of studies, known as caseload studies, analysing the relationship between the US unemployment rate and the welfare participation rate, with special regard to the 1990s. We examine this relationship in a structural VAR model over the period of 1960–2000 and find that the unemployment rate does not help to predict the welfare participation rate while the converse is more likely to hold. These results are robust to state and year heterogeneity over a period of unprecedented positive correlation between unemployment and welfare participation, i.e. 1990–1998. Further, we find that a shock to the welfare participation rate has a contemporaneous impact on the unemployment rate while the converse is less likely to hold. The main conclusion is that several caseload studies may be based on the wrong assumption that the unemployment rate is an exogenous explanatory variable of the welfare participation rate.     

我国承接国际服务外包的战略选择：风险及其规避

国际服务外包有较高的失败率。失败率是与服务外包过程中所面临各种风险紧密联系在一起的。我国服务外包市场有其特殊的风险因素,重点的风险因素主要包括以下几个方面:服务外包人力资源风险,主要表现为高离职率、文化障碍和沟通效率低、企业人才结构风险;服务外包知识产权保护风险,包括对软件的保护存在不足、执法力度不够、国外企业缺乏信任、海外媒体存在误解;服务外包企业的信息安全风险;发展服务外包的政策风险,包括税收、认证制度、公共服务等。     

美国新移民法案人才政策及其对我国的潜在影响

2013年4月,美国参议院‘八人党正式向国会提交《2013年边境安全、经济机遇及移民现代化法案》。目前该法案已在参议院获得通过,进入众议院审议阶段。该法案重点制定了一系列吸引高技术移民和创业人才的措施,内容涉及:取消对美急需人才移民签证的配额限制,增加高级人才在移民签证中的比例,设立创业移民签证,实施绩效评分的移民签证制度,大幅提高专业技能工作签证配额等。新法案一旦获得通过实施,会对美国带来积极影响,但对我国发展会造成潜在的负面影响,因此,我们应积极跟踪发达国家的人才政策,学习其先进经验和做法。     

How large are the gains to commitment policy and optimal delegation for New Zealand?

This paper measures the benefits of commitment-based monetary policy over discretion for a small open economy inflation targeting country—New Zealand. Significant gains accrue from commitment policy. If commitment-based policy is unavailable, the government can recoup much of the gains to commitment through optimal delegation, asking the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to care more about inflation stabilisation. The 1999 PTA, the core of the policy contract between the New Zealand government and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, placed an increased emphasis on stabilisation of output, interest rates and the exchange rate. This is inconsistent with a shift to optimal delegation behaviour and must stem from a changed perception of the welfare costs of macroeconomic stabilization on the part of the Government. This is shown to be true when the definition of inflation is extended to a medium term measure.     

Credit policies,macroeconomic stability and welfare: The case of China

Using a new Keynesian DSGE model with credit constraints, we study the impact on macroeconomic volatility of a macroprudential credit policy of the type implemented by the Central Bank of China. We find that the countercyclical credit policy plays a non-negligible role in stabilizing the real economy, and that this effect is distinctly more pronounced when credit conditions are looser. By means of a second-order approximation method, we show that the macroprudential credit policy can significantly boost welfare, benefiting the entrepreneurial sector more than the household sector. The results can yield insights for the institutional and policy setting of China and other emerging countries.     

新西兰农牧业发展模式及其启示

新西兰农牧业经营机制与模式创新点是:完备的农牧业科研机构和科技创新体系,便捷的农牧业成果推广与服务合作机制,高效的农牧业管理与技术调控模式。进入转型时期的中国农牧业应借鉴新西兰的经验,着力打造加入WTO后中国畜牧业参与国际竞争的产品优势和区域优势,努力提高中国特色农牧业综合生产水平和可持续发展能力。     

最优货币政策规则的选择及在我国的应用

本文首先根据我国的实际数据 ,建立和估计混合型模型 ,并以此作为研究货币政策规则的基本框架。然后在随机模拟的基础上 ,以社会福利为基准 ,计算和比较三种货币政策决策方式对社会福利的影响 ,这三种决策方式是完全承诺的最优货币政策规则、最优的Taylor规则及相机抉择。同时计算与福利损失等价的通胀率变化 ,结果表明 ,最优的Taylor规则能够很好地近似完全承诺的最优货币政策规则 ,这为进一步改进我国货币政策的决策和操作提供了一个指导方向。其次 ,对我国目前的货币政策决策和操作存在的问题进行分析 ,特别是对目前我国盯住货币供应量的体制所存在的问题进行分析 ,并提出改进的方案     

中国通货膨胀的福利成本研究

通货膨胀一直以来都是衡量一国宏观经济运行是否稳定和健康的重要指标。本文对国内外关于通货膨胀福利成本的研究发展进行了较为完整的综述,并在此基础之上运用消费者剩余方法和新古典宏观经济学一般均衡模型对中国通货膨胀的福利成本进行了计算和比较。实证结果说明,在中国高通货膨胀会带来较高的福利损失,因此将通胀率保持在较低的水平对提高中国的经济福利水平是有利的。