浅析国际蒸谷米市场

对目前国际蒸谷米市场和中国蒸谷米出口面临的机遇进行了实步探讨。     

国际粮食市场波动对中国的影响及政策思考

近几年国际粮价的急剧波动对国际社会产生了巨大的冲击和影响。在世界粮食供求变化、出口限制政策以及国际资本投机等多重因素的作用下,国际粮价急剧震荡并在很短的时间内飙升至30年以来的历史高位,此后又快速回落。国际粮食价格波动对中国既有消极影响也有积极影响,但总的来说影响相对较小。本文最后从耕地保护、市场调控以及国际合作等方面提出了保障中国粮食安全的政策思考。     

Estimating the Degree of Market Integration

Existing tests of spatial market integration are commonly based on statistical criteria without an explicit link to an economic model of price determination. This article proposes new measures of market integration defined directly in terms of a well-known spatial price determination model and develops an econometric methodology for estimating these measures. Due to the intractability of the conditional density function of prices, we use indirect inference to estimate the model parameters and market integration measures. The methodology is illustrated with simulated data and is applied to soybean price data for the United States, Brazil, and the EU.     

Market Performance of International Agriculture as Modified by Government Subsidies and Trade Barriers

Many developed countries have reduced agricultural market performance in the last decade with increased domestic subsidies and trade barriers. Several data sets were used to illustrate the extent of market distortion among some markets. Economic theory can show that these distortions reduce the general welfare in the countries with high trade barriers as well as the traditional agricultural exporting countries. The dairy industries appear to have the highest Producer Subsidy Equivalent. Among the developed countries, Western European countries and the Pacific Rim countries have caused major distortions in international markets of many agricultural products. Market performance in agricultural industries would be substantially improved if these major distortions were eliminated.     

Market Impacts of Technological Change in Canadian Agriculture

Market impacts of technological change in Canadian agriculture are measured within a computable general equilibrium framework using 2001 input-output data with agriculture disaggregated to six sectors and 13 commodities. Technological change is modeled as productivity rises in the use of intermediate inputs and of primary factors. Impacts on output, intermediate use of output, foreign trade, final consumption, returns to primary factors, and relative prices are calculated for primary agricultural commodities and processed food products. Impacts are summarized as three general outcomes. First, supply managed sectors adjust to technological change differently than other agricultural sectors. In the former, quota rents increase while in the latter, outputs, exports, and final consumption increase along with declines of relative supply prices. Second, large relative price declines for other commodities lead to consumer gains. Third, producer gains increase when the international competitiveness of agriculture increases. Finally, we compare the differential impact of technological change with and without supply management. L'impact que le changement technologique au sein de l’agriculture canadienne a sur le marché est évaluéà l’aide d’un modèle d’équilibre général calculable (EGC) qui utilise des données entrées-sorties de 2001 pour six secteurs agricoles et treize produits de base. Le changement technologique est modélisé en termes de hausses de productivité dans l’utilisation d’intrants intermédiaires et primaires. L'impact sur les extrants, l’utilisation intermédiaire d’extrants, le commerce extérieur, la consommation finale, les rendements des intrants primaires et les prix relatifs sont calculés pour les principaux produits de base agricoles et produits alimentaires transformés. L'impact est classé en trois catégories de résultats. Premièrement, les secteurs soumis à la gestion de l’offre s’adaptent différemment des autres secteurs au changement technologique. Dans le premier cas, les rentes de contingentement augmentent tandis que dans le second, les extrants, les exportations et la consommation finale augmentent et les prix relatifs de l’offre diminuent. Deuxièmement, les chutes importantes du prix relatif d’autres produits de base entraînent des avantages pour le consommateur. Troisièmement, les gains du producteur augmentent lorsque la compétitivité de l’agriculture sur la scène internationale augmente. Finalement, nous avons comparé l’impact différentiel du changement technologique dans les secteurs soumis et non soumis à la gestion de l’offre.     

Price Asymmetry in the International Wheat Market

Most wheat exports are accounted for by a limited number of countries with different policy regimes and specializing, for the most part, in particular classes of wheat. Under these circumstances, there is likely to be considerable interaction among the major exporting countries in the determination of wheat prices. In this paper, price linkages between the U.S. and other exporting countries (Canada, the European Union, Argentina and Australia) in the world wheat market are investigated. After determining that the direction of causality is from U. S. prices to the prices of other exporting countries, the nature of the price linkages is studied. The results suggest that the major exporting countries respond asymmetrically to U.S. price changes. The degree of asymmetry differs from one exporting country to another, Argentina and the European Union show greater response to falling prices than to rising prices, while the opposite is true for Canada and Australia.     

Estimating Market Power by Retailers in a Dynamic Framework: the Italian PDO Cheese Market

In this article, we evaluate the role of market power by retailers within the supply chain of Parmigiano Reggiano (PR) and Grana Padano (GP), the two most famous Italian quality cheeses. Market power is analysed in the context of a dynamic imperfect competition model of the supply chain, in which retailers are allowed to exert market power both downstream and upstream. We jointly estimate market‐power parameters together with supply and demand elasticities, by means of a structural system of demand, supply and price‐transmission equations, estimated using the generalised method of moments. We find evidence of downstream market power by retailers (toward final consumers) for PR and GP, but no evidence of upstream market power (toward processors/ripeners). These results may be explained by the structure of the supply chain and by the peculiar characteristics of the two cheeses.     

政府对森林资源产权市场的干预

森林资源产权市场由于存在市场失灵，因而政府有必要对其进行干预，干预的内容包括注重生态效益和社会效益、制定和完善森林资源产权市场规则、森林资源产权市场进出规则及交易规则，培育森林资源产权交易中心、提供信息服务、限制垄断势力维护竞争等。通过政府的干预，促进我国南方集体林区森林资源产权市场的不断完善与发展。     

政府行为对伊春生态旅游产业发展影响作用的思考

在前人已有的研究结论基础之上,结合伊春生态旅游产业发展的实际情况,认为政府对生态旅游产业发展的影响因素主要有经济调节机制、产业管理机制和公共服务机制,并对这些影响因素提出了对政府主导角色转变的相关建议。     

中国大米市场价格共因子分析

内容提要:本文利用持续—短暂模型(permanent-transitory model,简写为p-t模型)分粳米和籼米对中国大米市场价格共因子进行了分析。研究发现,在中国粳米市场价格长期行为的形成过程中,湖北、天津、黑龙江、吉林、浙江和江苏的影响比较大,其中,浙江起主导作用;在中国籼米市场价格长期行为的形成过程中,广西、湖北、湖南、江西、四川和浙江的影响比较大,其中,江西起主导作用。在决策过程中,决策者应重点考虑对影响较大的地区采取有针对性的措施。     

Government Interventions and the Production of Wheat in Saskatchewan and North Dakota: An Empirical Analysis

This paper measures the impact of different government programs relating to wheat production in Canada and the United States. Acreage and yield equations were estimated, which specifically incorporated government policy variables, using time-series data from 1960 to 1984, for wheat production in Saskatchewan and North Dakota, the two major producing regions for spring wheat in the two countries. It was found that the Canadian system of delivery quotas, while not, initially introduced as a production control program, is theoretically and empirically a more effective form of production control than the American system of acreage diversion/set-asides. A 10 percent reduction in delivery quotas reduces wheat production in Saskatchewan by an estimated 4.87 percent in the long run; farmers reduce both acreage and yield per acre in response to more restrictive delivery quotas. On the other hand, a 10 percent increase in acreage diversion/set-aside reduces wheat production in North Dakota only by an estimated 0.59 percent: farmers offset their reduction in acreage by increasing their yield per acre. Estimates of the acreage response to wheat prices in Saskatchewan are much lower than previous estimates reported in the literature. Cette communication mesure l' effet des programmes gouvernmentaux différents se rapportant à la production de blé au Canada et aux Etats-Unis. Let équations quant à la surface et le rendement sont estimées, incorporant spécifiquement des variables pour les politiques gouvernementales, utilisant les informations pour les séries-temporelles depuis 1960 à 1984, pour la production de blé en Saskatchewan et au Dakota-Nord, les deux principales régions productrices de blé au printemps des deux pays. Le système canadien des contrats de livraison, bien que ce système n' ait pas été conçu comme programme de contrôle de la production, est théoriquement et empiriquement un moyen plus efficace de contrôle de la production que le systeme américain de diversion/mise de côté des surfaces. Une diminution de 10 pourcent dans les contrats de livraison résulte en une diminution estimées à 4.87 pourcent au long terme de la production de blé en Saskatchewan; les fermiers réduisent à la fois la surface et la productivité à l' acre en réponse à des quotas de livraison plus restrictifs. D' autre part, une augmentation de 10 pourcent des surfaces en diversion/mise de côté résulte en une réduction de la production de blé au Dakota-Nord estimée a 0.59 pourcent; les fermiers contournent les réductions en surfaces par un augmentation de productivité à l' acre. Les estimés pour la Saskatchewan quand à l' ajustement en surfaces en reponsé au prix du blé sont beaucoup inférieurs aux estimés antérieurement rapportés dans la littérature sur le sujet.     

A Reexamination of Price Dynamics in the International Wheat Market

This paper examines price relationships in the international wheat market for the years 1981–93 using a cointegration and error correction approach. Price series are found to be first-differenced stationary and cointegrated. Our results provide evidence that the United States, Australia, the European Union and Argentina react to Canada's pricing decisions, whereas Canada does not respond to any other price changes except Australia's. Similarly, the United States also plays a strong role in the pricing of other exporters (except Canada) and its pricing decision is affected by changes in Canadian and Australian prices. The remaining exporters such as the European Union and Argentina respond to the U.S. and Canadian price changes but do not have any influence on other prices. Overall, our results suggest that there is no distinct price leader in the international wheat market. Nous examinons les rapports deprixjouantsur le marché international du blé durant la période 1981–1993, suivant une démarche de co-intégration et de correction des erreurs. Nous avons constaté et vérifié que les séries de prix se révélent stationnaires lorsqu‘exprimées en première différence et qu‘elles sont cointégrées. Nos observations démontrent que les États-Unis, I'Australie, I'Union européenne et I'Argentine réagissent aux décisions de tariflcation prises au Canada et que de son côté, le Canada ne réagit à aucun autre changement du régime de tarification sauf à celui de I'Australie. De même, les États-Unis jouent également un rôle important dans la tarification des autres exportateurs (le Canada excepté) et ses décisions de tarification sont sensibles aux changements affectant les prix canadiens et australiens. Le reste des exportateurs, notamment I'Union européenne et I'Argentine, sont en mesure de réagir aux changements des prix appliqués aux États- Unis et au Canada, mais Us n‘ont aucune influence sur la tarification des autres exportateurs. Toutes ces observations nous amènent à conclure qu'il n'y a pas vraiment de leader dans l'établissement des prix du blé sur le marché international.     

林地流转市场的政府干预行为研究

本文以西方经济学的市场失灵和政府干预为理论依据 ,分析了目前南方山区集体林区林地使用权流转市场政府干预的必要性 ,提出政府应及时采取措施来规范林地流转市场运作、降低交易成本、促进林地资源的可持续利用     

Some Lessons from the Modelling of the Spanish Rice Market

Spanish accession to the European Comminity (EC) will lead to many changes in Spain's agricultural sector. Predicting the nature of these changes is difficult because the new policy regime differs significantly from historic Spanish policies. In this paper, conventional econometric models of the Spanish rice sector are constrated with a model designed specifically to reflect the pervasive impact of Spanish rice policies. This policy model predicts the historical evolution of production, consumption and trade more accurately than the conventional models. However, the policy model cannot be used to predict the impact of the radical policy changes in Spain resulting from the introduction of the EC rice regime because the historical relationships no longer hold. It is argued that alternative approaches relying more on institutional analysis and expert opinion need to be developed to understand the future of the Spanish rice sector.     

Unbiasedness and Market Efficiency Tests of the U.S. Rice Futures Market

This study examines short-run and long-run unbiasedness within the U.S. rice futures market. Standard OLS, cointegration, and error-correction models are used to determine unbiasedness. In addition, the forecasting performance of the rice futures market is analyzed and compared to out-of-sample forecasts derived from an additive ARIMA model and the error-correction model. The results of our unbiasedness tests and the forecasting performance of the rice futures market provide supporting evidence that the U.S. long-grain rough rice futures market is efficient. The results have important price risk management and price discovery implications for Arkansas and U.S. rice industry participants.     

Transaction Cost Thresholds in International Rice Markets

Recent episodes of high and volatile prices for grains such as rice have raised concerns about their implications for hunger and poverty. We model price relationships between international rice prices and 221 domestic prices in 47 developing countries that import rice. We use a threshold vector error correction model that accounts for transaction costs of trade in spatial price transmission, and an improved regularised Bayesian threshold estimator for threshold models. Our results show that threshold values are higher after 2008 than before, which suggests that transaction costs in international rice trade have increased in recent years. Threshold values are highest for Latin American countries followed by African and Asian countries, and higher for retail than for wholesale prices. Since 2008, price transmission is slower in countries that responded to high and volatile prices with domestic market‐based interventions such as price controls and faster in countries that responded by lowering tariffs and by implementing production support measures.     

Market Price Response of World Rice Research

Using the total number of research publications as a proxy, the output of rice research in the world is estimated to be highly responsive in the short run to price fluctuations in the international rice market. The results suggest a danger of the inducement mechanism of public investment in the agricultural production infrastructure being misguided by cyclical price changes, thereby leading to recurrent food shortages and oversupplies in a cobweb-like manner.     

土地市场发展过程中政府行为规范问题探究

政府行政行为不规范、违法违规批地等行为的发生不仅扰乱了正常的市场秩序,同时影响了市场配置土地资源的基础性作用的发挥.因此,必须从建立公开透明的土地市场、界定政府的行政空间和职能范围、提高行政行为的透明度、加大土地违法行为的查处力度等方面入手,规范政府行政行为,促进土地市场的健康发展.