客观认识WTO规则对于发展中国家的合理性

在对WTO规则的认识上,国内有种观点认为,WTO规则是发达国家制定的,或者是以发达国家为主导建立的,只对发达国家有利,而对发展中国家不利.甚至有人认为,WTO是发展中国家的陷阱.如果这种说法是正确的话,就会产生这样一个问题:中国加入WTO,不就是自己往火坑里跳吗?这就涉及到我们怎么看待WTO规则的合理性的问题.     

灵活运用WTO的保护规则

如何灵活运用WTO规则,维护国家及企业利益,是我国政府和企业界在“入世”后需要认真研究的问题。WTO规则中的保护条款第一,发展中国家适用的条款。WTO允许发展中国家为保护民族工业和本国经济利益使用保护措施。概括起来有以下三条:1.关于保护幼稚工业的条款。WTO允许发展中国家为了加速某一特定产业的建立,即保护幼稚产业,以提高人民的一般生活水平,可以在与曾与之谈判的缔约国和其他利害相关的缔约国达成协议的基础上,修改或撤销关税减让表中的关税减让。若提高关税后仍然不能满足经济发展需要,还可采取数量限制等措施。又根据“东京…     

加入WTO改革关税制度

一、我国关税制度同WTO要求差距从目前情况看,我国关税水平和关税政策同WTO要求的差距,主要表现如下:1.在多次降税后,我国关税算术平均水平降到16.5%,与WTO成员国中的发展中国家13%至15%的关税水平基本接近。考虑到进口环节17%的增值税的因素,我国大多数商品进口实际综合税负超过30%,这同WTO要求的关税水平还有较大差距,我国需要逐步将关税平均水平降到WTO要求的发展中国家水平,最好将最高关税约束在39%以下为宜。2.消除各种非税壁垒,是WTO的一个     

“TRIPS 递增”协定的激增对发展中国家的影响及中国的对策

在后TRIPS时代①,TRIPS协议的弹性条款为TRIPS-递增的产生提供了法律上的依据,这就为发达国家提高知识产权保护标准提供了合法依据.发达国家绕开WTO与某些发展中国家和最不发达国家签订了一系列包含有TRIPS-递增标准的双边协定.这些协定给发展中国家施加了更高的知识产权保护义务,对发展中国家的知识产权保护以及社会经济发展将会产生深远的影响.我国作为发展中国家亟需完善我国的知识产权立法,同时呼吁国际社会对TRIPS协议做出修改以维护以我国为代表的发展中国家的经济利益.     

WTO与人才战略

一、对于加入WTO的两点看法 第一,入关的目的.我国入关并不只是参加,而应该更准确地说是参与.众所周知,WTO运作规则向来是由发达国家来制定的,发展中国家只有遵守的义务,而没有改变的权利.中国作为世界上最大的和最有影响力的发展中国家,入关之后首先要做的就是利用自身的政治影响和经济优势来争取改变这一局面,这也是绝大多数发展中国家希望中国加入WTO的意图所在.所以,入关的目的不只是被动地去接受、适应,而应该主动地去影响、争取改变它.当然这存在着很多的困难和挑战,而且在短期内不可能实现.但我们要有这个思想,这样,今后我们无论是决策还是处理实际问题,就会有一个明确的指针.     

浅析WTO管辖范围的权益之争

通过对WTO中管辖范围扩张的讨论和利弊分析,揭示了发达国家与发展中国家间权益的抗争.     

发展中国家身份应该谁说了算

2020年2月10日,美国贸易代表办公室(USTR)宣布修订《反补贴法》中有关发展中国家和地区的认定标准,即日起生效。其实,美国早有改变WTO发展中国家地位标准的要求。特朗普担任美国总统后,就把这件事列上核心议程。2017年12月,WTO布宜诺斯艾利斯部长级会议上,美国代表便酝酿推动WTO改革的提案。2019年2月18日,美国以理事会决议草案形式提交了WTO修改特殊与差别(S&D)待遇条款仅适用于最不发达国家的倡议。由于中国、印度等成员国反对,这个提议未获通过。     

金融全球化及其对发展中国家的效应

金融全球化对发展中国家的效应在于:一方面有利于发展中国家在国际资本市场融资,学习先进的金融运作经验;另一方面,使发展中国家面临着由此而来的诸多金融风险。对此,发展中国家必须精心设计参与金融全球化的战略,趋利避害,最大限度确保经济发展和金融安全。这一课题对于加入WTO后的中国具有直接参与意义。     

金融自由化与中国金融改革开放研究

当今世界，金融自由化已成为一种潮流。无论是发达国家还是发展中国家都在朝着这个方向努力，以促进本国经济的较快发展和国际经济一体化。回顾和分析了发达国家和发展中国家金融自由化的进程和一些做法，提出了加快中国金融自由化的一些策略措施，这将有助于中国金融改革开放的深化和应对WTO的挑战。     

WTO对证券市场开放的要求

证券市场的开放服从于WTO的最惠国待遇原则、透明度原则、国民待遇原则、市场准入原则、发展中国家更多参与和逐步自由化原则.其中,最惠国待遇、透明度、发展中国家更多参与三项为一般性原则,各缔约国在所有服务贸易领域都必须遵守.而市场准入、国民待遇和逐步自由化原则则属于特定义务,需要缔约方经过谈判达成具体承诺加以执行.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…