投资者行为与股市异象研究评述

长期以来,新古典金融理论一直忽视投资者行为这个要素,将人设定为理性人,并将投资者决策视为纯理性的决策.行为金融学的研究则试图将心理学与金融学结合起来,通过研究投资者决策过程采揭示股市异象的动因.本文试图梳理行为金融学关于股市异象的相关研究,并对投资者行为的主要模型进行了比较和总结,最后对我国投资者行为与股市异象研究的现状进行了评述,借此对行为金融学未来的发展进行了展望.     

Order imbalances and market efficiency: New evidence from the Chinese stock market

This paper differentiates order imbalances based on trader categories. The daily order imbalances are highly persistent, especially for the number-measured imbalances. That the price pressure caused by imbalances cannot last beyond a trading day indicates that China's stock market is efficient enough to absorb the imbalances. We find that large individuals, small individuals and small institutions act frequently as market makers by submitting non-marketable limit orders, and the market making activities are profitable for small individuals and institutions. The evidence indicates that individuals are noise or liquidity traders, while institutions are more likely to be informed traders.     

Identifying systemically important financial institutions in complex network: A case study of Chinese stock market

In this paper, we identify the dynamic influence of financial institutions based on a complex network modelling method. We first construct a financial network based on stock comprehensive evaluation (SCE), which is obtained by the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS). Then, the dynamic influence of financial institutions is identified by iterating the static influence of each network. The results indicate that (i) the dynamic influence of financial institutions is greater than their static influence in analysing the evolution of influence and (ii) banks and securities institutions play an important role in the financial system.     

中国股市现象的经济学分析

股票市场变幻莫测,魅力无穷;有关股票市场的经济理论更是精彩绝伦.但经济理论终究要以解释现象为依归,象牙塔里的理论要经得起事实的验证.本文指出的现有股票价值决定理论难以验证、制度安排影响租值消散以及股市泡沫理论模糊不清,不可以从好或坏那方面想,要从经济理论研究方法上看.     

Calendar trading of Taiwan stock market: A study of holidays on trading detachment and interruptions

We analyze the influence of the Chinese lunar calendar and superstitions on holiday preferences using theories on time and mood to identify investor sentiment. Trading interruptions caused by Thursday holidays negative significantly influence investor sentiment for trust companies and individual investors. Trading detachment derived from cultural holidays in June positive significantly influences investor sentiment for dealers and individual investors. Trust companies and the market exhibit significantly positive sentiments toward winter holidays. The stock exchange indicates negative and positive sentiments toward winter holidays and holidays in January. Cultural holidays and superstition in Taiwan indicate strong support for holiday preferences in Asia.     

股票市场波动性研究述评

创业板市场的波动性研究,对于完善我国证券市场机制、危机风险管理有着重要的意义。本文从研究对象、杠杆效应、长记忆性、模型拟合的角度描述股票市场的一些国内研究成果,即GARCH模型的发展和应用。     

Decomposing the value premium: The role of intangible information in the Chinese stock market

Compared with other developed stock markets, the Chinese stock market has a unique informational and trading environment. Given this unique environment, we find that intangible information (which is orthogonal to past accounting information) and arbitrage risk are potential sources of the value premium. In particular, our single and multivariate decomposition analyses suggest that intangible information directly contributes at least 40% to the value premium over a one-year investment horizon. Further, idiosyncratic volatility, a proxy for arbitrage risk, also influences the value premium. However, its contribution becomes insignificant once we account for the impact of intangible information on idiosyncratic volatility. Overall, our findings indicate that intangible information, which is unrelated to the firm's “fundamental” accounting-based performance measures, is the key driver of the value effects in the Chinese stock market.     

A secure,real-time stock market protocol

Stock markets constitute the largest electronic commerce market in the world. The tremendous growth in trading volume and the need for fast and accurate transaction execution has made the stock market one of the most technology friendly markets. The fastest growing stock exchange, NASDAQ, is a wholly electronic stock exchange with all transactions conducted over computer networks. However, the transaction model used by NASDAQ and other electronic stock markets still borrows heavily from the older traditional models used by non-electronic stock exchanges. Two important requirements of modern day stock market transactions are: (a) customer's ability to place sophisticated transaction orders to buy/sell stock, and (b) customer's ability to detect transaction delays. Modern electronic stock exchanges lack both the ability to place newer, more sophisticated transaction orders and the ability to detect delays in transaction execution. In this paper, we propose a protocol for stock market transaction that can model a new sophisticated model for transaction orders while continuing to support traditional transaction orders. The protocol is augmented with a mechanism to detect delays in transaction execution. It is further shown that the protocol proposed is secure, atomic, anonymous, private, and incurs low overhead costs. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The value of celebrity endorsements: A stock market perspective

Are celebrity endorsements worthwhile investments in advertising? To answer this question, we analyze a unique sample of 101 announcements made between 1996 and 2008 by firms listed in the USA. Internet is the main medium of communication for these announcements. We employ event study methodology and document statistically insignificant abnormal returns around the announcement dates. This finding is consistent with the notion that the incremental benefits from celebrity endorsements closely match the incremental costs due to such contracts. Further, we investigate if the announcement date return depends on a number of characteristics that are often used in the endorsement literature. As a result, we find that endorsements of technology industry products coincide with significant positive abnormal returns around the announcement dates. Finally, we find weak support for the match-up hypothesis between celebrities and endorsed products.     

股指期货的推出对股票市场的影响

我国推出股指期货的背景 股指期货是一种以股票价格指数作为标的物的金融期货合约。由于股票指数基本上能代表整个市场股票价格变动的趋势和幅度,上世纪70年代以后人们开始尝试着将股票指数改造成一种可交易的期货合约并利用它对所有股票套期保值,规避系统风险,于是股指期货应运而生。目前,国内生产总值（GDP）排名前21位的国家或地区,除中国外都有股指期货。中国已成为全球第四大经济体,如此庞大的经济体没有股指期货市场,在世界上是罕见的。     

Asymmetric extreme risk spillovers between the Chinese stock market and index futures market: An MV-CAViaR based intraday CoVaR approach

This paper proposes a predictive CoVaR measure to analyze asynchronous risk spillovers between the Chinese stock and futures market. We jointly model the intraday CoVaR dynamics using an extended MV-CAViaR model. The results show the presence of asymmetric spillovers under different market states, different trading rules, and different confidence levels. Specifically, there exist significant downside spillovers and insignificant upside spillovers. Moreover, the futures (stock) market becomes dominant in risk transmission during bearish (bullish) market periods. Furthermore, high margin requirements would weaken the spillover effects of the futures market, but it would also strengthen the spillover effects of the stock market.     

Flight-to-liquidity: Evidence from China's stock market

In an order-driven and strictly regulated stock market, illiquidity risks' effects on asset pricing should be highlighted, particularly in such extreme market conditions as those in China. This paper utilizes panel data from China's stock market in an attempt to answer whether the illiquidity risk in various dimensions—including price impacts, the transaction speed, trading volume, transaction costs, and asymmetric information—can explain stock returns. We find that almost all dimensions of stock illiquidity are positively associated with excess stock returns. More importantly, smaller, less-liquid stocks suffer more liquidity costs, providing a strong evidence for “flight-to-liquidity.” Additionally, the transaction costs and asymmetric information, denoted by bid-ask spreads, robustly account for these illiquidity effects on stock pricing and differ from the findings in the U.S. market. We also find that the “flight-to-liquidity” can partially explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle, investors' gambling, and herding psychologies. This study provides substantial policy implications in regulation and portfolio management for emerging markets.     

The role of stock markets on environmental degradation: A comparative study of developed and emerging market economies across the globe

It is well established in the literature that stock markets increase both economic activities and energy consumption across countries. Therefore, it is commonly believed that stock markets are expected to have a significant effect on CO₂ emissions. However, it is not known whether these stock markets can contribute to more or less CO₂ emissions. Hence, the goal of this study is to examine the impact of stock market indicators on CO₂ emissions across a global panel of both developed and emerging market economies. The results establish that stock market indicators have a significant negative and positive impact on carbon emissions in developed and emerging market economies, respectively. Furthermore, the findings illustrate the presence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, implying that stronger stock markets lead to a further decline in carbon emissions. Given these findings, the study argues that the role of stock markets in the abatement of CO₂ emissions significantly varies across both developed and emerging market economies. Significant implications have to do with the fact that developed markets might have initiated effective policies on listed firms to minimize carbon emissions, while emerging markets are yet to achieve this.     

A comparative study of range‐based stock return volatility estimators for the German market

This study investigates the relative performance of various volatility estimators based on daily and intraday price ranges of 25 German equities, with the two‐scales realized volatility used as a benchmark. The empirical results show that all estimators based on daily ranges are by far superior to the classical estimator but are severely negatively biased due to discrete trading. The realized range obtained from intraday ranges performs better in terms of both bias and efficiency, although its performance still suffers from discrete trading. In these settings, the bias correcting procedure developed by Christensen and Podolskij (2007) appears to consistently outperform all other alternatives, including the scaled version of Martens and van Dijk (2007), and provides evidence of the relative advantages of the realized range. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 32:560–586, 2012     

Risk contribution of the Chinese stock market to developed markets in the post-crisis period

China sped up its progress toward the opening of its stock market in the post-crisis period after 2010. This study aims to investigate the risk contribution of the Chinese stock market to four representative developed markets. The significance and dominance of the risk contribution are tested with the extended Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic by a bootstrap strategy. The results show a significant risk contribution of China to all the four developed countries. The dominance testing result shows clear regional effect in the risk contribution. The determinants of the risk contribution by macroeconomic variables are also identified in a forward-looking way.