The Chinese government and the national oil companies (NOCs): who is the principal?

China has conducted six government reforms over the past three decades to separate government functions from the major industries. These reforms enabled a number of national oil companies (NOCs) to be established in the 1980s, and the NOCs were further listed in the international stock markets in the new century. However, due to the incomplete government and enterprise reforms, the government has not been very successful in playing a role as the ‘principal’ to make the NOCs as an ‘agent’ to manage China's petroleum industry on its behalf. A sensible government–NOCs relationship may be created by either further removing the NOCs’ political functions, and strengthening China's energy market mechanism, or by establishing a Super-Energy Ministry that can assert fundamental authority over the NOCs, and manage the energy sector.     

商业银行合业经营:一个紧迫的现实问题

在我国加入WTO之后 ,全国的银行业务将在五年内全面开放。但是目前我国采用的是金融分业经营的模式 ,这种模式将面临着严重的挑战。近几年来 ,我国的金融体制也进行了一些改革 ,这为实现我国银行合业经营创造了必要的条件。随着国际、国内金融形势的发展 ,我国在发展银行合业的经营方面 ,应从宏观和微观两个方面着手。     

What does the ‘inner world’ of Chinese managers tell us about their management values,thoughts and practices? An ethnographic study

This article aims to investigate an important implicit expectation held by many observers: the dramatic economic change presently occurring on mainland China would be accompanied by the transformation of Chinese managerial values, thoughts and practices. Using an ‘ethnographic’ approach, we seek to understand the forces that are currently shaping Chinese managerial values, thoughts and behaviours in some privately owned firms. A set of ten managerial assumptions at three levels – ‘self’, ‘managing’ and ‘organisation’ – are unveiled and we see how they function coherently in animating managerial behaviour with distinctive ‘Chinese characteristics’. The importance attached to ‘family’ when dealing with employees, the requirement to be as ‘flexible’ as possible in managerial behaviour and the compulsion to call for ‘harmony and stability’ indicate that our informants define good management in a unique way. Interestingly, after years of intense political, ideological campaigning, economic reforms and opening-up policies, a set of traditional Chinese values continues to shape their managerial behaviour.     

Strategic challenges and issues for Chinese managers and management in the global economy: conclusions

The contributions to this symposium on ‘Demystifying Chinese Management’ have attempted to tackle new strategic issues and challenges vis-à-vis the newly diversified ownership and management system which has occurred since Deng's economic reforms. It is clear that when we try to ‘make sense’ of management in the People's Republic of China, we must take into account the degree to which Chinese management has become distinctive, with an adaptation of exogenous knowledge to local circumstances and a relative degree of ‘convergence’ involving a synthesis of ‘local’, ‘glocal’ and ‘global’ forms.     

金融冲击、去杠杆与中国宏观经济波动

去杠杆是我国供给侧结构性改革的重要任务之一,而平稳有序地去杠杆是防范化解金融风险的关键:本文通过梳理我国在2016年前后的经济数据,刻画了去杠杆进程中我国宏观经济存在的“扩张—收缩”波动特征。基于此现实,本文在金融加速器理论基础上构建金融经济周期模型,尝试利用违约成本的变化引入金融冲击,从未预期和预期冲击两个视角理解去杠杆背景下中国的宏观经济波动。模型数值模拟结果表明,去杠杆过程前后信贷、杠杆率以及信用利差等重要宏观经济变量的波动不仅源自未预期违约成本的变化。违约成本预期的变化同样也可以很好地解释近年来我国重要宏观经济变量的“扩张—收缩”波动特征,为理解我国去杠杆进程中的宏观经济波动提供了一个新视角。基于本文结果,政府实施去杠杆政策时不仅应充分考虑违约成本的实际变动,还应重视金融机构的预期因素。     

Strengthening the resilience of an economy

The financial crisis has affected the real economy in stages yet nevertheless at an unexpected rate and with all regions being affected simultaneously. It advanced almost independently of the regions’ exposure to the actual initial causes, among them the subprime crisis, innovative financial products, dubious microeconomic incentives, inefficient regulation and macroeconomic imbalances. The following analysis asks how national economic structures can be made more resilient to a shock (be it a financial crisis or another turbulence) and how economic policy can act in order to stabilise the economy before and after such a shock.     

US–China rivalry: The macro policy choices

Stylised representations of recent US and Chinese tax reforms, tariffs against imports and alternative Chinese monetary targeting are examined using a calibrated global macro model that embodies both trade and financial interdependencies. For both countries, unilateral capital tax relief and bilateral tariffs are shown to be ‘beggar thy neighbor’ policies. As large economies, both enjoy ‘optimal tariffs’, even bilaterally, though net outcomes are shown to depend on the allocation of revenues. Bilateral tariffs are most advantageous for the US if the additional revenue finances indirect tax relief. Once US bilateral tariffs are imposed, China is a net loser irrespective of its policy response, though a currency float is shown to cushion the effects on its GDP in the short run. Equilibria in normal form non-cooperative tariff games have the US imposing tariffs while China liberalises.     

论中国宏观经济的"新三驾马车"

改革开放40多年来,中国经济一直在“唱衰”声中成长,不但没有崩溃,反而突飞猛进地成为世界第二大经济体。唱衰中国经济的很多人只是照搬西方宏观经济理论简单片面地分析和判定中国经济。而中国经济能够奇迹般地高速增长,其根本原因在于中国具有举世瞩目的产业发展能力、居于世界前列的市场消费能力和潜力无穷的科技研发能力,这三者才是决定中国宏观经济发展乃至长期可持续发展“基本面”的三大决定性因素,是决定中国宏观经济发展的“新三驾马车”。     

Different paths to economic reform in Russia and China: causes and consequences

Economic reform in Russia has been described as ‘shock therapy’ because rapid industrial privatization, price liberalization and democratic reforms of the political system were introduced simultaneously. However, shock therapy led to insider control of most manufacturing firms, with important consequences for foreign investment. In contrast, China’s ‘gradualist’ reforms, without privatization or significant democratization, facilitated foreign joint ventures as the dominant means of reforming State-owned enterprises incrementally. This paper proposes an explanation for these contrasting reform paths in Russia and China and then traces their consequences for inward foreign domestic investment (FDI), exporting and for corporate governance in the short and long term. The impact of national level policies on enterprises is demonstrated in a matched pair of cases in Russia and China. Conclusions are drawn for policy, for practice and for future research.     

Beachtlicher Erfolg der Hartz-III-Reform

The Hartz reforms of the labour market constitute an important turning point in the evolution of the labour market in Germany. While the reforms consisted of four parts, it was especially the reform of the unemployment benefit system — the Hartz IV reform — that led to a strong response in the public and the media. Andrey Launov and Klaus Wälde demonstrate that the Hartz III reform of the German public employment agency (the ‘Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA)’), that took place one year earlier, was much more successful in reducing unemployment. The reorganisation or the BA accounts for around 20% of the reduction of unemployment between 2005 and 2008. By contrast, the Hartz IV reform can account for only 5% of this reduction.     

Emerging Asia: Decoupling or Recoupling

In this paper, we investigate the degree of real economic interdependence between emerging East Asian and major industrial countries to shed light on the heated debate over the ‘decoupling’ of emerging East Asia. We first document the evolution of macroeconomic interdependence for emerging East Asian economies through changing trade and financial linkages at both the regional and global levels. Then, by employing a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model, we estimate the degree of real economic interdependence before and after the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis. Empirical findings show that real economic interdependence increased significantly in the post‐crisis period, suggesting ‘recoupling’, rather than decoupling, in recent years. Output shocks from major industrial countries have a significant positive effect on emerging East Asian economies. More interestingly, the reverse is also true. Output shocks from emerging East Asia (and China) have a significant positive effect on output in major industrial countries. The result suggests that macroeconomic interdependence between emerging East Asia and industrial countries have become ‘bi‐directional’, defying the traditional notion of the ‘North–South relationship’ as one of ‘uni‐directional’ dependence.     

The Business(es) of the Chinese State

The state industrial sector is the Achilles heel of China's otherwise remarkable economic performance over the past two decades. Most other countries in transition from socialism have transformed SOEs into commercial entities through systematic, market‐driven restructuring and privatisation to become more efficient and competitive. In China, a series of innovative, if often administrative, insitutional reforms since 1978 have begun to achieve the Chinese authorities' goal of ‘separating governemtn from business.’ But the Chinese State still maintains ownership of key enterprises, and government agencies carry out shareholder functions typically performed by private owners in a market economy. Although privatisation and restructuring of SOEs is occurring, it mostly pertains to small and medium sized firms. For the principal businesses, by contrast, the creation of large state enterprise groups and holding companies (and experiments in other forms of ‘state asset management’) have become the main form of restructuring. Today, China's SOEs still account for more than one‐quarter of national production, two‐thirds of total assets, more than half of urban employment and almost three‐quarters of investment. While direct budgetary subsidies have declined, explicit and implicit subsidies are still making their way to prop up loss‐making SOEs through the financial system and other routes. At the same time, SOEs are still producing non‐marketable products, resulting in a sizeable inventory overhang. These inefficiencies and distortions represent a drain on the country's resources and thus present a challenge to the Chinese leadership for reform. This paper sheds light on these challenges by analysing the incentives and constraints on China's SOE reform programme. Four critical aspects of the reforms are highlighted and evaluated against the backdrop of international experience: clarification of property rights; establishment of large group/holding companies and other new organisational structures; improved corporate governance incentives; and implementation of international financial accounting and auditing practices. The paper concludes with policy recommendations.     

Modeling economic growth with tourism for small open economies

The purpose of the paper is to develop an economic growth model and analyze the impact of changes in tourists’ income on the growth of tourism dependent small open economies. We use a general theoretical construct to answer the question of how the price elasticity of tourism demand, income elasticity of tourism demand, and the concentration in the service sector influence the economic development of small economies. One of the main results is that the policy planners in small open economies may consider specific policies to influence the strength of market competition. An ensuing effect of such policies is that the labor incomes will increase. The approach provides a microeconomic foundation for macroeconomic modeling which can be used for applied research, and the model can be easily extended to examine other dimensions of economic development.     

关于宏观经济学微观基础的若干问题

传统宏观经济理论缺乏微观基础,而新古典(New Classical)革命和新凯恩斯(New Keynesian)革命都试图把宏观经济分析建立在稳固的微观基础上,认为宏观经济学应是经济主体在约束条件限制下,根据对宏观经济形势的预期进行最优化行为这一基础上去确定宏观经济总量,但是宏观经济学的微观基础研究的局限性也随之突显出来。因此,从物理经济学的角度,分别讨论宏观经济学的微观基础,旨在探讨研究中所涉及的"代表性个体"、"预期机制"、"计量验证"等分析模式中可能存在的问题。     

The Political Economy of Greater China

Since 1979, China has made tremendous progress in its economic reforms, and in these developments Hong Kong and Taiwan have beeen most deeply involved, so much so that the three economies have been collectively called ‘Greater China’. This article investigates the integration process from the perspective of the political economy, pointing out the promises as well as the problems. The author is cautiously optimistic about the future, provided that far-sightedness can prevent any dominant urge for short-term profits and political compulsion. The logic of economic interests seems power enough to ensure that even the more formidable political barriers can eventually be overcome. As a result, Greater China looks likely to be increasingly open to the rest of the world.     

China’s reform of socialism on trial

Western public opinion frequently voices uncritical applause for the economic reforms in the People’s Republic of China. The expectation of large sales opportunities in the Chinese market has led to a kind of China-euphoria in certain business circles. This frequently overlooks the fact that there are a wide variety of problems in implementing the reforms, which still have to be truly put to the test.     

Sovereign ratings,macroeconomic dynamics,and fiscal policy. Interactions within a stock flow consistent framework

Operating in the context of deregulated financial markets, credit rating agencies do not only ‘provide an opinion’, but also affect macroeconomic dynamics. By utilizing a two‐country stock flow consistent model that provides a representation of the Eurozone, the paper connects the movements of sovereign ratings with the dynamics of the financial market and the constraints on fiscal policy. With endogenous fiscal expenditure and an endogenous credit rating mechanism the model shows how following a recessionary shock, a rating downgrade can influence the financial constraints that surround a government, pushing it toward fiscal austerity and thereby deepening the already ongoing recession.     

中国居民储蓄行为不确定性与外汇储备——在Ramsay模型下对中国经济失衡的微观分析

基于当前中国消费者具有不确定性预期和因缺乏成熟金融市场而存在着借贷约束等两大基本特征事实,本文通过构造一个缓冲存货模型,论证指出当本国的经济增长率小于一个特定的临界值时,居民储蓄率将与本国经济增长率呈正比例变动,而本国的外汇储备也会不断积累。这不仅解释了中国的"高储蓄之谜",也解释了其不断积累的外汇储备,从而为自20世纪90年代以来中国经济的内外部失衡提供了一个微观解释基础。据本文推测,在其他条件保持不变的情况下,如果中国经济继续保持7%的增长率,则外汇储备将有可能在2015年突破5万亿美元。据此,本文给出了相应的政策建议。     

Trade Policy in Burundi: Reform Without Political Stability

This paper evaluates Burundi's progress with trade policy reform, by comparing earlier analyses of Burundi's trade policies undertaken in the 1980s with that of the WTO's recent Trade Policy Review. Since the mid‐1980s Burundi has been trying to reform its trade and macroeconomic policies against the background of continuous socio‐political tensions and periodic outbreaks of violent tribal conflict. A ‘then and now’ comparison allows us to assess both the extent of the trade reforms and of the economic return to those reforms. It is evident that there has been a significant rationalisation and simplification of trade policy. Burundi has eliminated most quantitative import restrictions and reduced the average level and range of its tariffs. The scope for allocative distortions, undesirable redistributive effects and for impediments to investment and growth has been substantially reduced. However, a return to reform in terms of export growth or diversification and of overall economic growth is not discernible yet. This is unsurprising, given the scale of the economic disruption. Sustained socio‐political stability, among other things, will be required to induce the investment in human and physical capital needed for a positive return to trade policy reform.     

China Trade Policy Review: A Political Economy Approach

Chinese trade policy has experienced ‘great reversal’ in the year of 2008. A series of constraining measures taken previously have been loosened eventually. We investigate this situation using a political economy approach. Unlike in democratic countries, where interest groups play a crucial role in trade policy change, in China, given the political reality, leaders’ will and trade partners’ pressure are the determinant factors. We call this top‐down and outside‐in trade policy. Actually the idea of ‘harmonious society’ and ‘scientific development’ emphasised by top leaders in October 2006 paved the road for the following trade policy adjustment: i.e. reducing tax rebate, limiting processing trade, compressing the catalogue for foreign investment, etc. However, with the shock of a global financial tsunami, these measures get coastal areas relying on foreign trade heavily into trouble. The economic downturn in Pearl River Delta even astonished the decision‐making body, calling on a quick reversal in foreign trade policy. If interest groups had been allowed to express their demand formally and adequately from the very start, the cycle of ‘taking up first but giving up last’ in policy design would have not taken place. In other words, the bottom‐up and inside‐out trade policy should be more stable. Although flexibility is necessary in the face of uncertainty, frequent and discretionary trade policy change usually produces effects of ‘pro‐government’ not ‘pro‐market’. This is unfavourable for the transformation in China. The constraining trade policy in mid‐2007 to mid‐2008 has been a part of the government’s desire to seek healthier development. However, with the inside and outside surroundings getting worse, the structural adjustment (long‐run objective) has had to concede to the economic growth (short‐run objective).