Can common risk factors explain infrastructure equity returns? Evidence from European capital markets

This is the first paper to test the ability of conventional asset pricing models to explain the excess returns of European infrastructure stocks. Specifically, we firstly run the well-known Fama and French three-factor model, including three common stock market factors (market risk, size risk and value risk), and subsequently augment the model with two common bond risk factors (term and default risk), as infrastructure firms should be closely related to bond markets. The times-series regressions span the period from July 1992 to June 2014 and are conducted using an individually created infrastructure equity data-set. With the help of an intensive screening process, we only include those infrastructure stocks that in fact own and/or operate physical infrastructure. The results reveal that the three-factor model is unable to capture most of the variation in infrastructure returns. Therefore, bond risk factors should be included in asset pricing models in order increase the goodness of fit, as infrastructure stocks prove to be sensitive to interest rate changes. Nevertheless, even the augmented asset pricing model leaves a substantial part of the variance unexplained, thus indicating that infrastructure firms exhibit a high level of idiosyncratic risk. In addition, the results suggest that there may be further risk factors which should be investigated in future studies.     

Would Indian farmers benefit from liberalization of world cotton and sugar markets?

Rich-country support programs for cotton and sugar producers are frequently claimed to be detrimental for developing-country farmers. This study investigates whether a reduction in protectionist policies for Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development cotton and sugar producers would have a measurable effect on the welfare of Indian farmers. The fact that these sectors are intensively regulated within India might suggest that any such effect will be small. However, this study shows econometrically that prices in Indian rural markets closely follow world prices, and that Indian farmers are flexible in the medium to long run in changing production according to price signals from these markets. Depending on the crop and the nature of liberalization, producer surplus increases from 4.2% to 22.3% in the long run.     

Power,capital, and the poverty of farmers’ land rights in China

This article is intended to conduct a three-dimensional examination of China’s rural land rights and the complex dynamic among political power, economic capital, and farmers’ rights during the past seventy years. First, the study takes a close look at the historical changes in the nature, scope, and ownership of land property in rural China during four significant time periods from 1949 to 2019. Second, it uses Ronald Coase’s theory on property rights in dissecting the four paradoxes and dilemmas in China’s rural land ownership, including the extent of clarity and stability of land property rights, the “three rights system” (the rights to ownership, contracting and operation of land) and three stagnations in defining and exercising such three rights, the simultaneous shortage and waste of land resources, as well as the restrictions on land transactions and the requirement to protect collective property. With examples derived from selected evidence, the article documents how both political power and economic capital have worked together to deprive farmers’ land rights. It concludes with a critical analysis of the current status of China’s rural economy, the problem of applying Western economic theories to China’s reality, as well as the theoretical definition, legal protection and policy parameters of land property rights in China.     

How important are tariffs and nontariff barriers in international markets for fresh fruit?

International markets for agricultural products are often subject to a range of trade barriers, and horticultural products are no exception. This article examines the economic implications of tariffs and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) regulations that are applied to global markets for fresh apples and fresh oranges. We calculate regional‐level tariff rates and ad valorem equivalents for SPS barriers following the price‐wedge approach. A simulation model is developed and used to assess the price, quantity, and welfare implications of reducing tariffs, removing SPS barriers, and removing SPS barriers that have been identified as a Specific Trade Concern (STC) by the World Trade Organization. Results suggest that a 36% reduction in global tariffs would lead to greater welfare gains than would the elimination of SPS measures in apple markets. However, in orange markets, we find that SPS measures have much larger economic implications for producers and consumers. Here, a 36% reduction in tariffs would lead to smaller overall welfare effects compared to removal of all SPS measures, and only slightly larger effects than those from removal of STCs alone.     

Vacant industrial premises and local development: A survey,analysis and policy assessment of the problem in Stoke‐on‐Trent

Summary

This paper presents the results of some survey work carried out in 1985 and in late 1987 on the subject of vacant industrial premises (VIPs) in the Stoke‐on‐Trent area. The issue of VIPs is briefly discussed at the outset and attention is drawn to the virtual information void that exists as regards the topic. The main core of the paper discusses the results of a survey of VIPs conducted in Stoke‐on‐Trent in 1985 and 1987. A typology of VIPs is suggested and, using a components of change approach, trends in the mid‐1980s are analysed. Detailed consideration is made of individual components ‐ including premises persistently vacant and reoccupations ‐ and several themes are developed. These include questions of the local distribution of VIPs components; the problems of returning premises to use; and the policy issues involved. The survey results reveal that over 3 million ft² of vacant industrial floorspace was available in early 1985 but that the figure had fallen to less than 2 million ft² by late 1987.     

The history and development of agricultural and horticultural co‐operatives in East Anglia

This paper argues for a shift of emphasis from larger outlays on two major anti-poverty schemes - the rural public works (RPW) and integrated rural development (IRDP) programmes - to improvements in their design and implementation. Enhanced outlays do not matter much, as they tend to be mistargeted. More specifically, based on National Sample Survey data for 1987-88, neither RPW nor IRDP covered a large segment of the rural poor, while among their beneficiaries the shares of the (relatively) well-off were not negligible. However, the RPW was more effective in excluding the non-poor rather than attracting the poor. There has been a progressive weakening of targeting in both schemes as leakages to the non-poor rose. More of the poor are likely to benefit from RPW if the wage rate is lowered (relative to the agricultural wage), if a combination of piece and time rates is used and if wages in kind are discontinued. On the other hand, in the context of IRDP, there is a need to eliminate the interest subsidy, place greater emphasis on the reduction of transaction costs and to vest rights of land in women. Given the key role of the Village Panchayat in poverty alleviation, it is imperative that it is accountable to the village community. But above all, benefits to the poor from anti-poverty programmes depend ultimately on whether they have the collective strength to affirm their interests.     

Who you know and when you plough? Social capital and agricultural mechanization under the new green revolution in Ghana

This paper examines the role of social capital in smallholder agriculture mechanization in Ghana under the ongoing agenda for transformation of African agriculture through the new green revolution. It contributes to the ongoing debate on the potential of social capital in explaining socioeconomic activity over time and space. Drawing on the experiences of smallholder farmers (n = 30) from Navrongo using qualitative interviews and focus group discussions, the paper explores how social capital networks shape mechanized service access and utilization among farmers and highlights the historical background to tractor-based mechanized farming in northern Ghana. Findings reveal how local farmers activate and operate in trustworthy social networks at the community level among themselves and externally with government agencies, traders and development partners to facilitate tractor access. The paper also finds that the withdrawal of government subsidies on agricultural services during structural adjustment in the 1980s created an avenue for private sector entry into the tractor service market. In recent times, the market is a blend of both public and private actors. Given the crucial role of social capital, this paper stresses that apart from economic factors, contemporary agricultural policy should build upon contextual sociocultural networks and the resources inherent in them.     

St Adam and the Dragons: Neo‐classical economics and the East Asian miracle

Abstract

This paper addresses recent explanations for the East Asian miracle. The argument that growth is entirely due to the accumulation of inputs is assessed and found wanting. There is still a place for the view that attributes success to activist policy. This is especially so, since the other explanations of East Asian success are rarely wholly convincing. The paper demonstrates that popular cross‐country models of growth usually fail to explain the East Asian experience, but presents evidence supporting emphasis on favourable initial conditions, including early specialization in manufacturing.     

Agricultural market liberalization and structural adjustment in sub‐saharan Africa

Abstract

This paper explores the linkages between structural adjustment and the liberalization of agricultural marketing in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). It examines the nature of structural problems, which have been manifested in stagnating output and balance of payments difficulties. Policy responses are described, in terms of short term macroeconomic stabilization and longer term growth‐oriented adjustment policies. The process of structural adjustment in Africa is surveyed, and policies and stages in the liberalization of markets are considered. Debates on agricultural marketing in SSA are reviewed. This leads into an analysis of the specific issues which arise while marketing policy reform proceeds as an integral part of structural adjustment strategies.     

A tipping point for agricultural expansion? Technological changes and capital accumulation in Argentina's rural sector

Drawing upon a case study located in central Argentina, we analyse in what ways technology is contributing to the accumulation of capital in a context where prevailing strategies resting on farm‐scale extension are no longer effective. We identify two major technological phases that go along with changes in actors' strategies aiming at re‐establishing expanded capital accumulation. These phases allow a better understanding of the mediating role of technology between capital accumulation and the appropriation of nature. In a context of increasing depletion of agro‐ecological conditions, the call for a new wave of innovations can be seen as an attempt to restore that mediating role. As we suggest, this entails broader changes in multiple levels.     

The two‐way interaction between globalization and labour market policies

Labour market and social policies both affect and are affected by the process of trade liberalization and globalization. This two‐way interaction and the feedback effects are the focus of this paper. The analysis is mainly conceptual—but examples are illustrated throughout, based mainly in the context of labour markets in North America, Latin America and the Caribbean basin. Attention is paid to outlining the mechanisms whereby globalization and trade liberalization affect labour market and social policy initiatives, and the extent to which these pressures will lead to a harmonization of legislative and policy initiatives, and if that harmonization will necessarily be downward to the lowest common denominator. The paper concludes that: (1) the pressures will lead towards policy harmonization; (2) the harmonization generally will be downwards; (3) such harmonization is not always negative as generally perceived; (4) efficient regulatory and social policy initiatives will survive and indeed expand, with the “rent‐protecting” ones under most pressure to dissipate; and (5) pure distributional or equity‐oriented initiatives that have no positive feedback effect on efficiency, unfortunately, will also be under jeopardy to dissipate, and this is a serious policy concern. Alternatives for addressing this concern are discussed, as are their associated problems.     

Sudan's agricultural sector diversity and policy reforms with reference to devaluation and food self‐sufficiency

Abstract

Sudan's agricultural sector is characterized by division into three structurally and institutionally distinct sub‐sectors. This paper discusses the likely impact of exchange rate reform on the structure of incentives, relative competitiveness and food self‐sufficiency, both intersectorally and intrasectorally. Employing domestic resource cost analysis and a simple framework for calculating expected net revenue for staple foodgrain, results indicate that policy reforms, particularly devaluation, appear to have affected the various sub‐sectors differently, and overall devaluation has met inadequately the challenge of sustaining a viable agriculture. The pursuit of food self‐sufficiency strategy may be explained in terms of expected net revenues and risk aversion; both are largely related to policy reforms and efficiency of the marketing system.     

Food–oil volatility spillovers and the impact of distinct biofuel policies on price uncertainties on feedstock markets

Over recent decades, the link between crude oil and agricultural markets has been reinforced following the introduction of biofuels. We use timely measures of (co)variation spillovers to analyze the role of crude oil in shaping price uncertainties of agricultural commodities, which are largely used as biofuel feedstocks. Our sectoral- and market-specific measures distinguish tranquil (1995–2005) and crisis episodes (2006–2015), as well as periods during which either consumption mandates or tax credits were enacted to spur biofuels. During the crisis period, crude oil volatility transmissions account for 16% (20%) of price uncertainties in ethanol (biodiesel) feedstock markets on average. Moreover, we find evidence of enhanced volatility transmissions under tax credit regimes compared with consumption mandates. The results from pooled regressions confirm stronger volatility transmissions by about 12% under the enactment of tax credits.     

The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports, 1985‐98

This paper maps out the recent manufactured export patterns of developing countries, using a new and detailed classification by technological levels. It argues that export structures, being path-dependent and difficult to change, have important implications for growth and development. Low-technology products (which have the least beneficial learning and spillover effects) tend to grow the slowest, and technology-intensive products (which have the most beneficial effects) the fastest in world trade. East Asia dominates the developing country scene, with 70% of total manufactured exports, and its role rises over time. There is also high and rising concentration at the national level. The technological specialization of different regions and the leading exporters differ greatly, as do the strategies used to achieve competitiveness. Received trade theory cannot explain these patterns without considering learning processes and the policies used to promote them.     

International migration and universal healthcare access: evidence from Mexico’s ‘Seguro Popular’

Although ‘Seguro Popular’ (SP), a healthcare programme for the uninsured, has been in place in Mexico for more than a decade, its consequences for international migration both to and from the country have received little scholarly attention. Using the spatial variation in the programme’s coverage generated through the rollout over time, this paper examines the effects of SP on the number of emigrants and return migrants per household. Based on data from Mexico’s National Survey on Demographic Dynamics for 1997–2014, the analysis confirms that being affiliated to SP does not reduce the number of emigrants per household, but such affiliation is, however, positively related to the number of returnees per household. These results are valid across different subsamples of the population and time periods and are robust to omitted variable bias. Our findings have important implications for understanding the effects of social protection policies on international migration patterns.