Smallholder Supply Response to Marketing Board Activities in a Dual Channel Marketing System: The Case of Zambia

In recent years, parastatal grain marketing boards have re‐emerged as important elements of grain markets in eastern and southern Africa, yet little is known about how farmers are responding to their scaled up activities. This article develops a conceptual model of farmers’ production decisions in the context of dual output marketing channels (government and private sector) when output prices at harvest time and the availability of one of the marketing channels are unknown at planting time. It then applies the model to the case of Zambia and uses nationally representative household‐level panel survey data to estimate the effects of the Food Reserve Agency (FRA), the government parastatal maize marketing board, on smallholder crop production and fallow land. The FRA buys maize from smallholders at a pan‐territorial price that typically exceeds market prices in major maize producing areas. Results suggest that increases in the farmgate FRA maize price raise farmer maize price expectations, which induces a supply response. Smallholders respond to an increase in the FRA price by extensifying their maize production. On average, a 1% increase in the FRA price is associated with 0.06% increases in smallholders’ maize area planted and quantity harvested. There is also some evidence that farmers reduce the area of land under fallow in response to FRA incentives but there is no evidence of reductions in the area planted to other crops.     

Effects of Increasing Agricultural Productivity in a Multisectoral Model for the Philippines

This paper investigates empirically the economy-wide effects of agricultural productivity increases in the Philippines, reporting the results of a quantitative analysis based on a general equilibrium framework. A multisectoral, price endogenous model of the Philippine economy is employed, emphasizing not only agriculture but also other production sectors with which it closely interacts, as well as the distinction between rural and urban households in their income generation and consumption patterns. Among other findings, the differential effects on the real income of rural households vis-a-vis urban households arising from increased productivity in the various components of the agricultural production sector are striking. The resulting improvements in the trade balance and national income, among other macroeconomic variables, are also relatively significant. Moreover, there are significant differences in the economy-wide effects among the four sectors of food and agriculture distinguished in the study. Particularly interesting is the highly favorable impact of rising productivity in the food processing sector on agricultural crop production and rural income, a linkage effect that has not received much attention in the development literature.     

New Futures Markets in Agricultural Production Rights: Possibilities and Constraints for the British and Dutch Milk Quota Markets

Farms are increasingly being affected by policies that involve production rights. Because of fluctuations in the prices of these rights in the spot market, farmers face a price risk. Establishing a futures market might enable them to hedge against this price risk. Rights futures have some features that differ from those of traditional commodity futures. This makes them an effective and efficient tool for managing price risk. The implications of these findings will be illustrated for milk quotas in the United Kingdom and The Netherlands. Prior conditions which might make a futures market for milk quotas successful in both countries will be deduced.     

Contractual Relations in Agricultural Credit Markets: A Hedonic Pricing Approach with Application to Poland

We present a micro‐econometric analysis of agricultural credit market outcomes in Poland that investigates the relationship between contractual arrangements and interest rates. An innovative theoretical framework based on a hedonic market model is developed. We interpret the factors that influence interest rates as ‘quality’ components of the credit contract. Using unique data allows us to consider both nominal interest rates and additional bank fees. The results show that banks have preferences for particularly liquid types of collateral, whereas they care little about the purpose for which the loan is used. Furthermore, the analysis allows quantification of the effects of socioeconomic attributes of farmers, different lending sources and government subsidies on interest rates. The latter effect is small compared with the officially declared reduction of the nominal interest rate. A simulation shows that enabling more borrowers to use liquid forms of collateral implies lower rates than those obtained by participating in the subsidy programme.     

Volatility Effects of Index Trading and Spillovers on US Agricultural Futures Markets: A Multivariate GARCH Approach

We examine the effects of speculation in the form of index trading on contemporaneous returns and volatility on corn, soybeans and wheat futures markets on the Chicago Board of Trade using multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models and weekly data for 2006–2014. We also assess spillovers. Results are threefold. First, contemporaneous effects of index trading on own returns are positive and inelastic, and they are partially mitigated in the following week. Second, volatility depends positively on own past volatility, and volatility spillovers are limited. Third, index trading reduces own volatility.     

Producer‐Controlled Marketing Organizations,Self‐Regulation,and Economic Welfare: Minimum Quality Standards in Agricultural Markets

Many agricultural producer‐controlled marketing organizations (PCMOs) have direct or indirect control over the amount or quality distribution of production marketed by the industry. We analyze the decision of these organizations whether to impose a minimum quality standard (MQS), and the impact of such standards on producer, consumer, and total welfare. An MQS can enhance net welfare because it may correct for deficient production of high‐quality product by the industry in the absence of an MQS, even though an MQS causes the destruction or diversion of low‐quality products. However, any MQS imposed voluntarily by a profit‐maximizing PCMO decreases the welfare of all consumers of the product and is also highly likely to reduce net (producer plus consumer) welfare. De nombreux organismes de commercialisation contrôlés des producteurs agricoles exercent un contrôle direct ou indirect sur la quantité ou la qualité de la production commercialisée par l’industrie. Nous avons analysé l’idée de ces organismes d’imposer ou non une norme de qualité minimale ainsi que les répercussions éventuelles de ce genre de norme sur les producteurs, les consommateurs et le bien‐être total. L’imposition d’une norme de qualité minimale peut contribuer à accroître le bien‐être net puisqu’elle peut pallier la production insuffisante de produits de haute qualité par l’industrie en l’absence d’une norme de qualité minimale, bien qu’elle puisse entraîner la destruction ou le détournement de produits de qualité inférieure. Il n’en demeure pas moins que l’imposition volontaire d’une norme de qualité minimale par un organisme de commercialisation contrôlé des producteurs agricoles qui vise la maximisation des profits diminue le bien‐être de tous les consommateurs du produit et risque aussi de diminuer le bien‐être net (soit celui des producteurs et des consommateurs).     

The Effect of the Elimination of Federal Milk Marketing Orders on Farm-level Markets: A Laboratory Experiment

Experimental markets are used to simulate U.S. dairy market conditions and the effect of the elimination of Federal Milk Marketing Orders. The experimental task is a simple 2x2 matrix laboratory game that is computer assisted. The treatments are oligopsony and regulation. Perishability is represented by advance production decision with no carryover and is kept constant across the experiments. Sellers make production decisions and receive a pool price, while buyers make a price (bid) and quantity decision. Experimental results indicate that, in the absence of regulation, buyers are successful in reducing market price and in capturing a larger share of market surplus than a perfectly competitive solution predicts. Regulation reduced the market power of buyers and the price fluctuation of raw milk, in an oligopsonistic market, and does not reduce the overall price efficiency of the market. L'auteur s'est servi de marchés expérimentaux pour simuler la situation sur le marché américain des produits laitiers et les répercussions de l'abolition des Federal Milk Marketing Orders (décrets fédéraux de commercialisation du lait). L'expérience consistait en un simple jeu de laboratoire à matrice 2x2 assisté par ordinateur. Les deux situations examinées étaient l'oligopsone et la régiementation. L'aspect périssable des denrées est representé par une décision de production avant prix sans possibilité d'entre pasage, et est constante dans toutes les expériences. Les vendeurs prenaient des décisions à l'égard de la production et recevaient un prix commun, tandis que les décisions des acheteurs se rapportaient au prix (offre) et à la quantité. Les résultats de l'expérience indiquent qu'en l'absence de réglementation, les acheteurs réussissent a diminuer le prix de marché et à capturer une part du surplus économique plus importante que celle prévue dans une situation de concurrence idéale. La réglementation affaiblit le pouvoir de marché des acheteurs et atténue la fluctuation des prix du lait cru sur un marché oligopsone sans pour autant réduire l'efficacité du marché, dans l'ensemble.     

Information Sharing and Oligopoly in Agricultural Markets: The Role of the Cooperative Bargaining Association

We study incentives for information sharing among agricultural intermediaries in imperfectly competitive markets for farm output. Information sharing always increases expected grower and total surplus, but may reduce expected intermediary profits. Even when expected profits increase with information sharing, intermediary firms face a prisoner's dilemma where it is privately rational to withhold information, given that other firms report truthfully. This equilibrium can be avoided if firms' information reports are verifiable, and if firms commit to an ex ante contract that enforces participation in information sharing. We show how agricultural bargaining legislation can implement such a contract with the bargained farm price representing a sufficient statistic of all information held by intermediary firms.     

China's Accession to the World Trade Organization: What Is at Stake for Agricultural Markets?

We analyze the impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization on major crop and livestock markets using the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) modeling framework. We incorporate expected changes in consumer income, textile production, and trade policies as exogenous shocks to the baseline model. Following accession, revenues decline in China's livestock, grain, and oilseed industries, while cotton production prospers despite increased imports. Chinese consumers benefit from lower food prices, with vegetable oil, dairy, and meat consumption increasing significantly. Argentina, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and the United States are the greatest beneficiaries from expanded agricultural trade with China.     

渠道关系视角下中国农产品流通模式优化研究

长期以来,导致农产品销售难、农民收入增长慢等问题的一个重要因素就是农产品流通模式落后。与国外农产品流通渠道相比,中国农产品流通渠道体系还存在诸多的弊端。要提高中国农产品流通渠道运行的绩效,解决"小农户"与"大市场"之间的矛盾,关键是对中国农产品流通模式进行优化研究,而在农产品流通模式优化上,渠道关系理论为我们提供了很好的视角。     

The Doha Round of the World Trade Organization and Agricultural Markets Liberalization: Impacts on Developing Economies

We investigate the impacts of multilateral removal of all border taxes and farm programs and their distortions on developing economies, using a world agriculture partial equilibrium model. We quantify changes in prices, trade flows, and production locations. Border measures and farm programs both affect world trade, but trade barriers have the largest impact. Following removal, trade expansion is substantial for most commodities, especially dairy, meats, and vegetable oils. Net agricultural and food exporters emerge with expanded exports; net importing countries with limited distortions before liberalization are penalized by higher world prices and reduced imports. We draw implications for current World Trade Organization negotiations.     

中国市场化改革进程中农业发展的若干趋势

我国国民经济和社会发展跨入 2 1世纪新的历史时期 ,将出现的结构转型、体制转轨和对外经济开放的三大趋势 ,对我国农业发展将带来深远的影响。在这里 ,我们尚难清晰地描绘中国农业发展未来走向的全貌 ,但从市场化改革进程中已经发生的或者已经初见端倪的若干变化 ,可以大致地勾勒出市场经济条件下中国农业发展的背景条件 ,这些显著的变化 ,总的集中体现在由产品经济向市场经济的转变 ,具体则体现在 :农业投资主体由以集体为主转向农户个体为主 ;农业生产组织由行政性安排转向农民自组织 ;农产品交易由行政性分割市场转向国内统一大市场 ;农…     

农产品流通组织制度的效率决定：一个分析框架

一、农产品流通 :组织制度的效率决定一般来讲 ,交易费用的节省意味着资源可以在更大范围内以更快速度配置和调动 ,就使得价格更大程度上反映资源的稀缺程度 ,从而优化资源配置。但另一方面 ,由于经济组织的运行却要耗费组织管理成本 ,因此 ,我们在选择组织形式与组织制度时 ,总是倾向于更加节省交易费用和管理成本者 ,以求交易费用与管理成本的边际均衡。从这个意义上讲 ,影响组织效率的因素主要有 :(一 )组织制度隐含的产权结构　法律对产权的初始界定及其对伴随交易过程发生的权利让渡后的再界定所形成的产权结构 ,即构成产权的权利束在…     

Policy Reform in the European Union Dairy Sector: Effects on Markets and Welfare

This paper analyzes the impacts of policy reforms in the EU dairy sector. It is shown that the imple-mentation of GATT agreements leads to a 4% decrease in the milk price. Prices of SMP and WMP decrease more than butter and cheese prices. EU welfare increases marginally, but distributive effects are large. The increase in quotas decided by the Berlin Agreement will cause a dramatic cut in the milk price (?10% to ?15% depending on how EU demand will increase in the future). Moreover, because of the constraints on subsidized exports, the implicit price of protein will decrease much more than the price of fat. Finally, if demand expands sufficiently, then compensatory payments (including national envelopes) will cover about 90% of the loss in producer surplus due to the milk price cut. We also inves-tigate the impact of a two-tiered quota system and show that its impacts are similar to those generated by the implementation of GATT agreements. On étudie les effets de différents scénarios de réforme de la politique laitiére européenne. La mise en oeuvre des accords du GATT implique une réduction du prix du lait de 4%. De plus, les baisses de prix des produits transformés sont plus importantes pour les poudres de lait que pour le beurre ou le fro-mage. L'impact des accords sur le bien-ětre est positif mais faible. Par contre les effets redistributifs sont importants. L'augmentation des quotas décidée lors de l'accord de Berlin entra?nera une baisse importante du prix du lait européen, de l'ordre de 10 %à 15 % selon l'évolution de la consommation intérieure. En raison des contraintes d'exportations qui portent principalement sur les produits pro-téiques, le prix implicite de la protéine de lait diminue beaucoup plus que le prix implicite de la matiére grasse laitiére. Par ailleurs, on montre que si la demande européenne s'accro?t suffisamment, les paiements compensatoires prévus couvriront environ 90 % des pertes de revenus des producteurs liées à la baisse du prix du lait. Enfin, on montre que les effets d'un scénario de double prix double quota sont proches de ceux provoqués par la mise en application des accords du GATT.     

Characteristics of Agricultural Marketing in Hungary During the Formation of Market Economy

Although the central planning system of the Hungarian economy changed after 1968, there was not any considerable decrease of state interference nor was there any significant increase in the role of the market. It was the system of state interference which changed: instead of direct methods the emphasis was primarily put on indirect methods (price subsidies, taxes, loans). The role of the market continued to remain of secondary importance, which was mainly indicated by the low level of market competition. In addition, the economic system fundamentally affected agricultural marketing. The role of the market started to be valued significantly from 1989-1990. In this article I shall describe the initial situation of a market-oriented economy as well as the major trends and the steps of the new programme.     

中国农产品批发市场的建设与发展方向

一、农产品批发市场发展的基本情况1 .批发市场已经成为鲜活农产品流通的主渠道。我国农产品批发市场起步于 2 0世纪 80年代中期 ,经过十五六年的建设 ,截止到 1 999年底 ,已发展到 42 49个 (其中城市 1 856个 ,农村2 3 93个 ) ,年经营额 2 71 5亿元。它们覆盖了所有的大中小城市和农产品集中产区 ,构筑成了贯通全国城乡的农产品流通大动脉。目前 ,大中城市消费鲜活农产品的 50 %～ 70 %是通过批发市场提供的 ,通常是城市规模越大 ,这个比重就越高。批发市场的发展 ,为搞活农产品流通 ,增加农民收入 ,丰富城镇居民的“菜篮子”和“果盘子” …     

基于偏最小二乘回归的投影寻踪耦合模型在土地利用预测中的应用

研究目的:构建偏最小二乘回归投影寻踪耦合模型(PLS-PP),提高土地利用预测精度。研究方法:文献分析法,偏最小二乘回归模型和投影寻踪模型,实证分析法。研究结果:(1)此模型预测结果的相对误差绝对值均值从PLS模型的3.92%,降低到了0.13%;(2)将投影寻踪与偏最小二乘回归耦合,运用偏最小二乘回归法提取对因变量影响强的成分,克服了变量之间多重相关性的问题,并降低投影寻踪输入维数。运用基于实数编码的加速遗传算法来优化投影指标函数,实现过程更为简单。研究结论:PLS-PP耦合模型是研究土地利用预测的有效的方法,可以为区域土地资源管理和制定地方经济发展政策提供支持。     

The Effects of Agricultural R&D on Chinese Agricultural Productivity Growth: New Evidence of Convergence and Implications for Agricultural R&D Policy

This article measures and compares the effects of agricultural research and development (R&D) on total agricultural factor productivity growth for 29 Chinese provinces from 1986 to 2011. Using the convergence test proposed by Phillips and Sul ( 2007 ), the study finds strong evidence of convergence in total agricultural productivity growth and positive correlation between growth and public investment in R&D. The analysis of convergence indicates that the productivity gap between different regions in China has lessened, suggesting agricultural productivity is convergent across all provinces in China. We find R&D being statistically and economically more important in technological catch‐up than in innovation. Human capital also plays a major role in productivity growth. The finding of strong positive inter‐region spillover effects implies that expanding cooperation across regions for public agricultural research is more efficient and training of researchers can improve total factor productivity, especially in less productive regions. Cet article mesure et compare les effets de la recherche et du développement agricoles sur la progression de la productivité totale des facteurs agricoles au sein de 29 provinces chinoises de 1986 à 2011. Au moyen du test de convergence proposé par Phillips et Sul ( 2007 ), l′étude révèle des preuves manifestes de convergence de la croissance de productivité agricole totale ainsi qu'une corrélation positive entre cette progression et les investissements publics en recherche et en développement. L'analyse de convergence démontre la diminution de l′écart de productivité dans les régions de la Chine, suggérant la convergence de la productivité agricole à la grandeur des provinces chinoises. La recherche et le développement sont ainsi proposés comme étant statistiquement et économiquement plus importants dans le rattrapage technologique que l'innovation. Le capital humain joue aussi un rôle majeur dans la croissance de la productivité. Les forts effets positifs de débordement entre les régions laissent entendre que la coopération grandissante en recherche agricole publique à travers les régions s'avère plus efficace, et que la formation des chercheurs peut améliorer la productivité totale des facteurs, surtout dans les régions moins productives.     

我国农产品批发市场的现状与发展趋势

农产品批发市场是为农产品集中批发交易提供场所的有形市场。农产品批发市场的出现是我国流通体制改革的重大成果 ,它的兴起与发展 ,不仅加快了我国农业市场化进程 ,对整个经济体制改革也起了重要推动作用。进入新世纪 ,作为农产品流通枢纽的批发市场怎样变革发展 ,才能适应市场经济发展及与国际市场接轨的需要 ,理应值得人们更多关注 ,本文反映作者对这一问题的初步思考。一、我国农产品批发市场发展概述作为改革进程中交易制度创新的产物 ,农产品批发市场是在农户小生产与社会大市场的背景下 ,适应与促进我国农业市场化和农产品区域流通发…