Importing High Food Prices by Exporting: Rice Prices in Lao PDR

Lao PDR has extensive export controls on its staple food, glutinous rice, which keep domestic prices low relative to international prices. Using price, harvest, and export data this paper analyses how glutinous rice prices in Laos PDR are related to those in its trading partners, Thailand and Vietnam. We find that rice prices in Lao PDR are more likely to rise following a good harvest year than a bad or a normal year. This is consistent with export controls being relaxed after good harvests, leading to an increase in exports early in the season and rising prices later as stocks are depleted. There is thus a case for removal of trade restrictions since they give rise to price spikes while keeping the long‐term price of glutinous rice low, and thereby hinder increases in income from agriculture. However, since high rice prices are likely to affect the poor negatively in the short to medium term, a combination of an export tax and cash transfers is recommended during the transition period. Although this is a case study of Lao PDR, the findings may equally apply to other developing countries that export their staple food.     

Optimal Production Tax and Quota under Time Consistent Trade Policies

This article investigates the policy active importers' incentives and welfare implications of using production and trade policies in a dynamic framework where production decisions occur before consumption decisions. We show that the equilibrium for production taxes and quotas are not equivalent, and that each equilibrium depends on whether the trade policy instruments are tariffs or quotas. Under import quotas, the equilibrium policy is to tax domestic production, whereas under a tariff either a production tax or subsidy may be optimal. We also show that a collective agreement to ban production policies is likely to be welfare-improving in many circumstances.     

Differentiated products and supply controls in the analysis of agricultural policy reform: the case of tobacco

With a multi-market model of the U.S. tobacco and cigarette industries, we analyze the impact of a reduction in the assistance to U.S. tobacco producers by relaxing production quotas with nonbinding price support and by lowering tariffs on tobacco imports. The results show the importance of incorporating differentiated product and supply control assumptions into agricultural policy analysis.     

碳关税的征收对中国纸制品出口贸易的长期影响效应分析

发达国家以保护全球环境为名提出了有关碳关税的政策,但是结合碳关税的相关政策内容来看,其动机是为了抑制发展中国家高能耗产品的出口,以便保证自身高能耗产品在国际的地位。我国身为纸制品出口贸易大国,一旦实行碳关税政策,将会对经济发展带来严重影响,基于此本文分析碳关税对中国纸制品出口贸易的长期影响效应具有十分重要的意义。     

Economic issues in tariffication: an overview

The agricultural trade liberalization proposal known as ‘ tariffication’ aims at converting all existing non-tariff barriers (NTBs) to trade into bound tariffs, and to reduce these tariffs over time. This is in tune with the original philosophy of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and it calls for a dramatic overhaul of existing agricultural policies in many developed countries. The main economic issues that arise with tariffication stem from the non-equivalence of tariffs and NTBs in a number of scenarios. This paper analyzes non-equivalence arising from the existence of: imperfect competition in importing countries; price instability in importing and exporting countries; and, inefficient allocation of quantitative restrictions. It is shown that in all these cases the definition of an appropriate 'equivalent tariff to be used in tariffication is not straightforward, and that in general this equivalent tariff cannot be computed on the basis of only observed price differences between countries. Tariff-rate quotas, which are meant to be the main tool of implementation of tariffication according to the existing proposal, are analyzed in some detail. Concerning the relationship between tariffication and the other elements of the trade liberalization package, it is shown that tariffication would limit the scope of export subsidy policies. It is also shown that the existence of production and export subsidies makes observed price gaps between countries of questionable value in setting equivalent tariff levels. Finally, it is argued that the main focus of tariffication should be the conversion of NTBs to acceptable long-run (bound) tariffs rates, and considerable flexibility in this conversion process could be exercised in the transition period.     

Tariff rate quotas: structural and stability impacts in growing markets

This paper examines several aspects of tariff rate quotas (TRQ) as adopted during tariffication of agricultural policies under the Uruguay Round of GAIT. Quota rents and non-tariff barrier effects may remain under TRQs, contrary to the objectives of the tariffication process. Further, price stability impacts of a TRQ are more complex than those for either tariffs or quotas, and under certain circumstances TRQs may be more stabilizing than either case, since TRQs truncate domestic production distributions much like price bands policies. This complexity results from the possibility of regime switching, and may reflect behavior under either a tariff, a quota, or a combination of cases. A TRQ policy may affect the timing of import decisions based on incentives created under quota allocation procedures envisioned for this institution. It may also allow increased imports as demand growth occurs because the quota is not necessarily a binding constraint. This means the above quota tariff is the critical policy instrument. An empirical study of Philippines port: imports illustrates these issues.     

The International Coffee Agreement: Economics of the Nonmember Market

The provisions of the 1983 International Coffee Agreement (ICA) and proposed reforms to eliminate exports to nonmember importers at discounted prices are analyzed. The discounted sales were a key issue that led to the breakdown of negotiations for a new ICA and the end of export quotas under the current agreement. A model of the world coffee market incorporating the policy response of exporting countries is used to analyze the welfare implications of the different alternatives. The model shows that the price discounts result from the structure of the current agreement (the existence of nonmember importing countries) and allocation of export quotas for the member market, which does not reflect export capacity. Welfare calculations based on the model show that several small exporters derive substantial benefits from nonmember market sales. These exporters will not be willing to comply with an arrangement to allocate quotas for the nonmember market unless they receive a large share of this market. However, the large exporters appear determined to retain their market share. The results of the model predict that, unless importers no longer insist on eliminating the price discounts, a new agreement is unlikely.     

The simple analytics of agricultural production quotas

Abstract

The literature on the theory of supply management is disparate. The aim of this paper is simply to bring it together in a largely non‐mathematical way. The Cochrane Proposal, which was the first real exposition of how a supply control policy might operate, is reviewed. The paper then focuses on production quotas in the short and long runs and examines the impact of uncertainty.     

On Exporting by Import State Traders and Peculiar Effects of Negotiated Minimum Access Commitments

It has been alleged that exportation by import state trading enterprises (ISTEs) must involve unfair trade practices. We show that such exporting may result from a rational use of market power by a sufficiently protected price discriminating ISTE. We argue that the flawed design and implementation of the tarffication process initiated in the last GATT agreement is providing ISTEs with incentives to export. The tariffication of import quotas and other related import restrictions was dirty in the sense that it permitted the setting of prohibitively high tariffs on many commodities. More importantly, it failed to eliminate quantitative trade barriers as the previous import quotas were replaced by minimum access commitments (MACs). In this paper, we use a simple partial equilibrium framework to explore the trade and welfare consequences of trade liberalization through tariff reductions and MAC enlargements under the small country assumption when domestic production and imports are controlled by an ISTE. We show that tariff reductions and MAC enlargements have very different effects on the behavior of the ISTE. MAC enlargements induce inefficient trade by encouraging the profit maximizing ISTE to increase its exports. In terms of welfare, MAC enlargements are immiser-izing. We conclude that tariff reductions are to be preferred to MAC increases as a means to liberalize trade .     

中美贸易战对林产品贸易的影响及其对策建议

在梳理中美林产品贸易相互关系的基础上,分析了新一轮贸易战将对中美林业产业、林产品贸易、就业等的影响。结果表明:贸易战对中低级技术水平的从业人员影响较大,短期内对中国传统优势产品出口冲击较大,但长期反而能分摊和降低贸易风险,以价格优势为主的微利型木材加工企业和以美国为主要出口市场的出口导向型企业将面临较大风险;同时,贸易战不仅会直接损害美国消费者利益,还会加速其木材产业的萎缩。拓宽进口渠道,扩展替代市场和国内市场,加快国际合作,加强技术创新,落实财政政策是中国减缓和避免贸易战对中美双方林产品贸易产生不利影响的应对措施。     

Impacts of WTO restrictions on subsidized EU sugar exports

The study evaluates the impact of World Trade Organization (WTO) restrictions on the European Union (EU) sugar sector and the world sugar market. A small reduction in production quotas would be sufficient to satisfy the export subsidy limitations of the Uruguay Round agreement. Complete elimination of export subsidies by 2005 would require either a 10% reduction in production quotas or the combination of an 8% reduction in quotas and an 11% reduction in intervention prices. Higher world prices resulting from reduced EU exports would result in increased production of unsubsidized C‐sugar, with different impacts across EU member countries explained by differences in institutional pricing arrangements and marginal production costs.     

中国对虾产业发展现状及国际竞争力提升对策

2010年中国对虾总产量持续位居世界之首,然而出口量和出口金额均小于同期的泰国;同时,出口单价也低于同期的越南,中国对虾生产与贸易面临着来自泰国、越南和印度尼西亚等国强有力的竞争。本项研究通过对我国对虾产业发展现状的考证,最后提出应建立对虾产业整合协调机制,提升对虾产业组织化水平,是提升中国对虾产业国际竞争力的有效手段。     

Impact of export upgrading on tax revenue in developing and high-income countries*

Empirical studies usually analyse the relationship between an economy’s trade sector and tax revenue in developing countries through the effect of trade liberalization on tax revenue. This paper takes a different angle by examining the impact of export upgrading strategies (export diversification and improvement in export quality) on non-resource tax revenue. The panel data-set covers a sample of 172 countries, including both developed and developing countries, spanning the period 1980–2010. The analysis is conducted both on the entire sample and sub-samples. The findings indicate that export product upgrading exerts a positive and significant effect on non-resource tax revenue, including for the sub-samples considered, with the exception of low-income countries for which we observe mixed results. Moreover, countries which upgrade their export products in a context of trade openness consistently experience higher non-resource tax revenue, both in the short and long term.     

基于Nerlove模型的玉米供给反应研究*——以吉林省为例

［目的］吉林省是以玉米为主要粮食作物的产量大省,吉林省玉米生产在保障国家粮食安全方面发挥着重要的作用。2016年国家取消玉米临时收储政策,实行“价补分离”政策（既市场化收购+补贴）。在玉米价格逐步市场化的形势下,为探究吉林省玉米种植面积对价格变动的反应程度,［方法］文章利用1985—2015年吉林省玉米种植面积、玉米平均出售价格、玉米的物质成本投入、玉米与大豆的每667m2收益比值、玉米与水稻的每667m2收益比值的时间序列数据,通过运用Nerlove模型,测算吉林省玉米播种面积对价格、物质成本、与大豆和水稻的每667m2收益比值的供给反应。［结果］吉林省玉米的短期供给弹性为049,长期供给弹性为063,短期供给弹性和长期供给弹性均小于1,缺乏弹性,吉林省玉米种植面积对价格变动的反应较为迟钝。［结论］提出完善农业耕作制度,推进玉米目标价格制度改革,优化玉米收购市场结构政策建议。     

The Liberalisation of Tariff Rate Quotas under Oligopolistic Competition

Several proposals for liberalising agricultural tariff rate quotas (TRQs) have been proposed within the WTO Doha Development Round. The literature suggests that the effectiveness of liberalisation depends upon which of the three elements of a TRQ constrains imports. Most contributions assume perfect competition. This article uses an oligopoly two‐stage capacity constrained model, in which the mode of competition is endogenous, to investigate the impact of different liberalisation options of TRQs, that is, the reduction in the in‐quota and out‐of‐quota tariffs and the expansion of the quota. This article shows that consideration of the nature of competition between traders may provide unconventional conclusions about the effectiveness of the various TRQ liberalisation options; furthermore, the article shows how an increase in the number of rivals, under certain circumstances, may be more effective in increasing trade than reducing tariffs.     

Testing vertical price transmission for Vietnam's Robusta coffee

Vietnam has undergone market reforms over the last three decades; and as a consequence, the coffee sector has become increasingly market‐driven. The success of the government's liberalisation policies in terms of market efficiency is investigated by examining the transmission of both positive and negative price changes for Robusta coffee between export and farmgate prices. We used a threshold vector error correction model and high‐frequency daily data. The primary result here is that of a symmetric price transmission between export and farm‐level prices. This result holds when tested with weekly price data, derived from the daily data. Farmgate prices respond faster to decreases than increases in export prices when the long‐run deviation exceeds a certain threshold. These price changes are transmitted within several days. This research also confirms the importance of transaction costs, and other price frictions mostly ignored in prior analyses for coffee.     

Rice Production,Trade and the Poor: Regional Effects of Rice Export Policy on Households in Vietnam

Analysing Vietnam's rice export policy and recent export ban in the context of rising food prices, this study combines insights from a regionally‐disaggregated or ‘bottom‐up’ CGE model and a micro‐simulation using household data. Three main conclusions are drawn. First, although there is little impact on GDP, there are substantial distributional impacts across regions and households from different export policies and market conditions. Second, both rural and urban households, including poor households, benefit from free trade, even though domestic rice prices are higher. Finally, under free trade, relatively large gains accrue to rural households, where poverty is most pervasive in Vietnam.     

Economic and Household Impacts of Projected Policy Changes for the Irish Agri‐food Sector

The policy environment for the Irish agri‐food sector could change rapidly in the coming decade. A potentially positive factor will be the elimination of milk quotas in 2015, although a potentially negative factor will be further trade liberalisation and increased import competition. These changes come on top of the move to decouple direct aids to farmers in 2005 as part of the Mid‐Term Review of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy agreed in 2003. This paper examines these reforms and their impacts on the Irish economy and income distribution using a CGE model particularly rich in detail on the agri‐food sectors, differentiated household groups, and agricultural policy instruments including their links to productive factors and households. The results suggest that the past and projected changes in the policy environment have, in sum, a small positive impact on GDP and household income. However, the gains and losses are unequally distributed across sectors and household groups due to the highly differentiated distribution of support and protection. Although all households generally gain from the sequence of policy reforms in the long run, some experience strong adverse effects from particular reforms and in the medium term.     

基于Granger检验的地价与房价关系研究

研究目的:探讨地价与房价的因果关系。研究方法:实证研究法与计量经济学分析方法。研究结果:在短期,武汉市房价与地价互为因果,其中地价是房价的Granger原因的程度更大;在长期,房价与地价之间没有显著的因果关系。研究结论:在利用土地政策进行宏观调控时,宜多采用内生的政策工具;继续强化对土地投机的抑制政策,可相应减少政府用来“熨平市场”所需的土地储备量,以缓解土地储备资金不足之困。     

我国农业生态系统的现状、功能与可持续发展分析

伴随着人类社会对食物的多样化需求,农业生态系统的自然循环方式正在被打破,在系统物质输入和输出水平不断增加、能量转化效率逐渐提高的同时,系统的波动性、脆弱性随之扩大,系统的稳定性、抗逆性也因此下降。未来要获得可持续的农业生态系统服务功能和人类福利,就必须在短期、中期和长期的时间尺度上,对人类活动与农业生态系统变化及其两者之间的关系进行全面的了解,实行可持续利用方式,在不同的系统层级上进行合理的管理。