国际直接投资与中国农业产业结构升级

本文分别从需求和供给两个方面对农业利用外商直接投资促进农业产业结构的演化进行了理论和实证分析。从供给角度的实证分析表明，农业外商直接投资与农、林、牧、渔产业结构的优化具有密切关系，同时，它与农作物种植结构的改善也有显著的相关性。但是，农业外商直接投资与经济作物在种植业中的比重提高之间的关系并不显著，说明外商直接投资在提高经济作物的发展上还有很大的作用空间。从需求角度的实证分析显示，农业外商直接投资对农产品贸易增长的推动效应十分显著，对农产品出口结构的改善效应也很明显。     

外商直接投资与我国产业安全

我国在利用外资过程中必须要维护产业安全。国家和民族利益的现实差异性是维护产业安全的前提；维护产业安全是各国的普遍做法，是对国际经验教训的总结，是维护我国根本利益的客观要求。为了有效维护我国产业安全，我们必须客观评价外资的作用，平衡利用各种外资方式，建立健全产业安全管理体制，增强国内产业竞争力，清理完善政府利用FDI政策法规。     

外商直接投资影响中国人造板产业国际竞争力的分析

以"波特—邓宁的钻石模型"为分析框架,从生产要素、需求条件、相关及支持性产业和企业结构、战略与同业竞争4个方面分析外商直接投资对人造板产业国际竞争力的作用机制;然后,通过对外商直接投资对中国人造板产业国际竞争力影响的实证分析发现,外商投资企业对中国人造板出口具有重要贡献,外商直接投资提升了中国人造板产业的国际竞争力。     

外商直接投资对中国农产品加工业影响的实证研究——增长、国内投资和就业

本文采用1999～2003年间中国农产品加工业12个次级产业部门的面板数据，通过建立计量经济模型，对外商直接投资对中国农产品加工业增长、国内投资和就业的影响进行了实证研究。结果表明，外商直接投资总体上促进了中国农产品加工业的增长，但同时也对中国农产品加工业国内投资和就业产生了一定程度上的挤出效应。在此基础上，笔者给出了几点简要的结论和相应的政策涵义。     

Analyzing Foreign Direct Investment Decisions by Food and everage Firms: An Empirical Model of Transaction Theory

Global trends in agricultural marketing include increased trade in processed foods, less intra-industry trade, slower growth in trade of bulk commodities, and intensified adoption of processing and biological technologies. These trends temporally lead to increased investments by firms in intangible assets and tighter vertical controls. As a result of these trends, in the context of international trade governance, there is invigorated interest in the causal factors related to the boundaries of firms.
Using transaction economic theory and an empirical model, this research analyzes the determinants of international trade strategy in the food and beverage industry. The quantitative analysis involves a nested logit model of a sample of domestic and multinational firms in SIC 20. The nested logit employed is based on a two-level nest of sequential dichotomous choice decisions regarding exporting and foreign direct investment (FDI). The first sequential decision is the boundary choice between remaining domestic or engaging in international trade of some form. The second sequential decision involves exporting or FDI. Model regressors include the size of the firm, level of product differentiation, intangible assets, research and development expenditures, long-term debt, capital intensity, the country of origin and business structure.     

Plant Variety Protection, Innovation, and Transferability: Some Empirical Evidence

Under the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights, all member-countries of the World Trade Organization are required to provide an " effective" system of plant variety protection within a specific time frame. In many developing countries, this has led to a divisive debate about the fundamental desirability of extending intellectual property rights to agriculture. Empirical studies on the economic impacts of plant variety protection, especially its ability to generate large private sector investments in plant breeding and to facilitate the transfer of technology, have been very limited. This paper examines two aspects of the international experience of plant variety protection: ( a ) the relationship between legislation, research, and development expenditures and plant variety protection grants, i.e., the innovation effect and ( b ) the role of plant variety protection in facilitating the flow of varieties across countries, i.e., the transferability effect.     

我国粮食直接补贴的地区差异及其存在的合理性

我国现行的粮食直接补贴政策在补贴品种、补贴规模、补贴条件、补贴方式以及补贴标准等多个方面存在明显的地区差异 ,这可以由各地的资源禀赋、经济发展水平以及政策改革的渐进性战略来解释。针对现行粮食直接补贴政策已经出现的一些值得关注的问题 ,在政策设计上应当防止地区差异过大和地方保护主义抬头 ,不断改进各种粮食直接补贴方式 ,警惕粮食直接补贴政策的目标冲突。     

外商在华投资新特征与山东省渔业利用外资的现状及建议

本文概述了目前外资投入在规模、方向、项目、经营方式诸方面的新特点,回顾了山东省渔业利用外资的三个阶段及其不同阶段的特点与成就,并在此基础上提出了更好地引进与利用外资的相关建议.     

土地整理投资区域差异、原因及建议

研究目的:依据土地整理区域方向和投资优化机理,比较分析2000—2004年土地整理资金投放的区域差异,探讨差异形成的原因,提出相关建议。研究方法:数据对比分析法。研究结果:研究期内各省土地整理总投资与新增耕地投资成本出现明显差异,总投资最大的前三个省是浙江、山东和江苏;随着土地整理资金不断投入,浙江、山东和江苏每公顷新增耕地的投资成本出现不断上升趋势;投资总量最大的区域是东南区和华北区,中部区和东北区两大粮食主产区未形成投资重点;中部区和东北区对国家投资的依赖度最高;出现上述区域差异的原因是土地整理投资基本由土地出让收益决定,未实现区域统筹。研究结论:2000—2004年期间政府投资的区域重点与土地整理宏观第一目标存在较明显差异,建议建立区域统筹的土地整理投资机制。     

Capacity Depreciation, Implicit Rental Price, and Investment Demand for Farm Tractors in Canada

Among the different factors pertaining to the demand for durable inputs in agriculture, the way the input depreciates over time is an important issue. This study investigates four alternative capacity depreciation patterns for farm tractors. While published estimates from government agencies implicitly assume convex capacity depreciation patterns, the results of this study demonstrate that the use of agricultural engineering data which depict a concave rather than convex pattern better reflect farmers' investment decisions. An implicit rental price measure is also proposed to account for the fact that the purchase price of a durable input is not an appropriate measure of the implicit rental cost of the asset.
Parmi les facteurs déterminants de la demande pour les biens durables en agriculture, la rapidité avec laquelle I'intrant se déprécie est certainement importante lors des décisions d'investissement. La présente etude analyse quatre différents scénarios de dépréciation pour les tracteurs agricoles au Canada. Bien que les données publiées par les agences gouver-nementales supposent implicitement que les biens durables se déprécient à un taux annuel constant, les résultats de cette etude montrent que I'utilisation de données basées sur la valeur productive de I'intrant telle que calculée sur une base expkrimentale donne de meil-leurs résultats statistiques dans I'estimation de la demande pour les tracteurs agricoles. De plus, une mesure du coût implicite de I'intrant est également proposée pour tenir compte du fait que le prix d'achat n'est pas une mesure appropriée dans I'analyse de la demande pour un bien durable.     

Induced Innovation in U.S. Agriculture: Time-series, Direct Econometric, and Nonparametric Tests

The hypothesis of induced innovation is tested for U.S. agriculture using a high-quality state-level panel data set and three disparate testing techniques—time series, direct econometric, and nonparametric. We find little support for the hypothesis. That conclusion is robust across testing techniques. However, as with all empirical tests of this hypothesis conducted to date, ours focus only on the demand side of the hypothesis. The hypothesis could have been rejected simply because the marginal cost of developing and implementing input-saving technologies for the relatively expensive inputs is greater than for the relatively cheap inputs.     

Managing urban growth in a transforming China: Evidence from Beijing

Managing urban growth in the current rapid urbanization process has become a key issue for land use policy in transformation China. This paper maps and assesses the performance of urban containment strategies in China, looking at the case of Beijing over a 19-year period (1990–2009). The analysis shows that to a large extent containment strategies perform well in terms of concentrating urban growth in planned suburban areas and promoting compact development. However, the unexpected growth in the rural–urban fringe and the decreased compactness of the fringes of the mixed urban areas and planned peripheral constellations caused by dispersed and illegal development suggest that the municipal containment strategies are being challenged by local development activities. Most sprawling developments at the local level are favoured by the new trend towards local autonomy and fiscal responsibility in the current transformation process. The results reveal that municipal growth control might not be achieved by all local jurisdictions when local economic motivations are involved. Particularly, urban sprawl has been fuelled by the development of urban real estate which can create significant revenues for local government and private developers. In the interest of future policy development, the management capacity of current containment strategies should be enhanced to mitigate the negative effects of market-led development in the present transformation context.     

风险厌恶与农户气候适应性技术采用行为——基于新疆植棉农户的实证分析

气候适应性技术采用率低下已成为制约中国农业可持续发展的重要因素,风险厌恶可能影响农户的气候适应性技术采用决策。本文利用新疆349户植棉农户微观调查数据,基于实验经济学方法测度农户的风险厌恶程度,系统考察了风险厌恶对农户气候适应性技术采用行为的影响及作用机制。研究发现,风险厌恶对农户气候适应性技术采用行为产生了显著抑制作用,越厌恶风险的农户采用气候适应性技术的可能性越小、采用程度越低、采用时长越短。进一步探讨作用机制后发现,风险厌恶通过抑制农户参与信贷影响其技术采用行为,具体表现为越厌恶风险的农户参与信贷的可能性越小,进而采用气候适应性技术的可能性越小、采用程度越低、采用时长越短。此外,受灾程度、技术培训对风险厌恶影响农户气候适应性技术采用行为有调节作用,即受灾程度加重、技术培训参与能缓解风险厌恶对农户气候适应性技术采用行为的抑制作用。     

Interest rates,saving and investment: Evidence from India

Abstract

The role of interest rates in the process of economic development is examined through an empirical inquiry into the interest rate‐saving‐investment nexus in the Indian economy during the period 1955–95. The results are generally in support of the financial liberalization school of thought. Higher real interest rates seem to promote both financial and total savings, and stimulate private investment. On the investment side, the combined salutary effect of interest rate increases operating through increased debt intermediation and self‐financed capital accumulation outweighs the direct cost effect on investment. Overall, the study casts doubt on the robustness of results coming from the vast cross‐country literature on the subject and calls for systematic time‐series analyses covering a variety of country situations to inform the on‐going policy debate.     

影响中国林业企业对俄直接投资的经济、资源和制度因素

以2005—2017年中国对俄罗斯的FDI数据为样本,建立多元回归模型,实证分析了影响中国林业企业对俄直接投资的经济、资源、制度因素。结果表明:提高中俄贸易关系紧密度和人民币对卢布汇率能够促进中俄两国的林业投资合作,俄罗斯森林资源禀赋和原木产量的提高推动着中国林业企业在俄罗斯开展直接投资,中俄两国的法律制度差异、话语权和问责差异与中国林业企业对俄罗斯的FDI流量为负相关,然而两国的腐败遏制差异、政府效率差异对于中国林业企业在俄罗斯开展直接投资有着显著的正向影响。因此,应加强中俄两国政府的政策沟通和经济合作,有效规避汇率风险;增加中国的人工林培育面积;积极完善俄罗斯的制度质量,降低中国林业企业在俄罗斯的投资成本。     

村庄治理、融资和消费保险：来自8省49村的经验证据

本文研究个人和社会风险分担机制对中国农民消费保险的影响。运用1400户家庭的独特面板数据,我们发现消费保险在下列情况下比较完全:(1)家庭拥有较多的财产;(2)村庄通过选举产生村领导;(3)村民可以获得非正规贷款。另外,获得银行贷款不会影响消费保险。这些发现表明了本地信息和村庄治理在保障农村消费保险方面的重要性,并对社会主义新农村建设具有参考价值。     

Agrobiodiversity,farm profits and land fragmentation: Evidence from Bulgaria

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the role of land fragmentation, crop biodiversity and their interplay with farm profitability. Original primary data are drawn from a survey conducted in the Plodiv region of Bulgaria. The econometric results stress the ambiguous role of land fragmentation on farm profitability. On one hand, land fragmentation reduces farm profitability. On the other hand, land fragmentation fosters crop diversification. We also find that crop biodiversity plays a beneficial role in farm profitability. Policies that aim to increase land consolidation and reduce fragmentation may overlook the positive link between diversity and plot heterogeneity. Policies that encourage land consolidation should, therefore, consider the crucial role that this has on other variables such as farm biodiversity.     

中国农业生产率的地区差异与收敛性研究

在比较我国各省农业生产率的前提下,运用巴罗回归等方法,检验了我国农业生产率的收敛性和形成β收敛的条件.分析结果显示,1985-1991年中国各省的农业生产率呈发散态势,1992-2002年存在条件收敛,其中市场化程度、农村教育、耕地灌溉率对缩小农业生产率的地区差距有显著的影响;长期来看,农业和农村经济的市场化程度是农业生产率提高的主要促进因素,短期内改善农村教育、提高耕地灌溉率可能效果更加显著.