THE EROSION OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS IN AN OIL ECONOMY: THE CASE OF NIGERIA

After several years of oil production and exports with attendant revenue influx, the sector is yet to make a significant impact in Nigeria's economic growth. Contrary to the hopes and expectations that greeted the oil discovery, the non-oil export sector of the economy, more specifically the agricultural sector, has been declining consistently with further increases in oil exports. This paper is intended to provide an empirical analysis of an aspect of structural change that has taken place in the Nigerian economy. The hypothesis investigated is that an increase in oil exports results in higher relative prices on non-tradeable to tradeable goods and an appreciation of the domestic currency, hence a loss of the competitiveness of the agricultural export sector in the international market. This phenomenon, popularly known as the ‘Dutch disease’, has been vigorously discussed in the United Kingdom, Norway and the Netherlands, has also received much attention from Australian economists in relation to minerals.     

Mix and sequencing of economywide and agricultural reforms: Chile and New Zealand

Once committed to economywide and sectoral reforms – stabilization, structural adjustment, and trade liberalization – and companion reforms of institutions, how does government best proceed? With what reforms in response to initial conditions, and in what mix, sequence, strength, and speed? This study examines what factors were most critical to success during transition in two early reformers. The economies of Chile and New Zealand have undergone seismic reforms, starting in the mid-1970s and 1980s, respectively. Comparative analysis of their reforms look at the prior conditions that induced drastic action and the policy choices made in each country. Though similar in many respects, differences in initial economic conditions and implementation led to dissimilar, even contrary results. For Chile, the outcome was a vigorous, recharged economy and agricultural sector; for New Zealand, the economy and the sector are lagging still. How policy choice and implementation, as well as simultaneity of reforms, affected the outcomes is the major thrust of the study. The preeminence of trade and macroeconomic policies over sectoral interventions, and in particular the strategic nature of the real exchange rate in allowing agriculture to compete domestically and internationally highlight the discussion.     

Economic reform and aggregate cropping patterns for Egypt

Beginning in the early 1980s, the government of Egypt embarked on an aggressive initiative to progressively change its centrally planned economy to a system more dependent on domestic and international markets. The agriculture and food sectors have taken the lead in the economic reforms. This paper investigates changes in Egyptian cropping patterns as an indicator of the 'success' of the transition toward a more market-oriented economy. First, trends in cultivated area and gross margins during the economic reforms are described. Responses of cropping patterns to changes in gross margins are then evaluated. A random effect distributed lag model with pooled cross-sectional time-series methods is used to examine the relationship for individual crops. Canonical correlation analysis provides a more general assessment of responsiveness of the overall cropping pattern.     

SOME GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM EFFECTS OF MINING GROWTH ON THE ECONOMY

The effects of mining sector growth are analysed with a five-sector general equilibrium model. The effect of the mineral discoveries is to cause the agricultural sector to contract, but to cause the import-competing sector to expand by a small amount–a result which differs from Gregory's (1976) analysis. However, a mining boom caused by increases in external demand, rather than by new discoveries, leads to a different set of results. Some likely effects of the boom on the growth rates of the different sectors in the economy are reported. Finally, the effects of an export tax on minerals are considered.     

An analysis of industrial–agricultural interactions: a case study in Pakistan

This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between Pakistan's industrial and agricultural sectors. Pakistan was chosen because of its status of a semi‐industrialized country with heavy dependence on the agricultural sector. The relationship between cotton production and industrial growth is also evaluated due to the prominence of this crop in Pakistani agriculture. The results indicate that these sectors are complementary, yet industry tends to benefit more from agricultural growth than vice versa. The timing of this information is critical, as Pakistan's policy makers now face major agricultural policy reforms in their quest for continued industrial development.     

Chile's agricultural diversification

Chile's fruit sector, both in production and exports, has grown significantly since 1974. At that time, Chile introduced structural reforms in its economy which assured that market principles would operate regarding land ownership. Also, the government began a ‘hands-off’ policy which basically allowed free-market principles to prevail. As a result of these conditions operating in the economy, Chile's agricultural sector diversified from producing largely annual crops and wool to also producing a significant amount of commercial fruit crops. A second round of diversification is currently underway within the fruit industry where pears and peaches are being produced and exported in addition to apples and table grapes. In this paper we derive decision criteria when aggregate performance is evaluated from the perspective of maximizing a risk-averse utility function. Empirical evidence on Chilean fruit exports indicates that, on an aggregate level, Chilean fruit exporters are following the path of utility maximization and validates the sequence by which Chilean producers introduced nontraditional crops over time. While on an individual level there may be complex factors and constraints involved in the planting decisions, the results of this study seem to indicate that the sum of producer behavior satisfies the conditions required for maximizing a risk-averse utility function.     

Dutch Disease and the crime epidemic: an investigation of the mineral boom in Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea has pinned its hopes for economic development on its mineral wealth but, so far, this has been a false promise. Given Papua New Guinea's vulnerability, this raises questions of a Dutch Disease effect. Dutch Disease is dismissed in principle, but an appreciating real exchange rate is considered to have important offsetting economic consequences via its implications for crime. Using a CGE model incorporating crime as an economic activity, the contribution to welfare of a resources boom is investigated. The results confirm that a resources boom will deliver a net welfare benefit, but far smaller than the revenues generated would suggest, and at a cost to equity.     

重庆市县域经济发展水平及其对比分析

县域经济是城市经济和农村经济的结合点,推动县域经济的发展对于国民经济的发展、小康社会的构建都具有战略性意义。当前,我国经济已进入新常态,经济发展的内部刺激因素与外部需求环境皆出现深刻变化,县域经济的发展也迎来了新的机遇与挑战。重庆市自"十二五"以来,县域经济取得较快发展,文章通过因子分析模型及参考联合国HDI(人文发展指数)度量方式构建的评价指标体系对重庆县域经济发展的现状进行分析,发现重庆市的县域经济发展相对比较落后,且重庆市内部各县市之间经济发展也存在较大差别,经济发展并不平衡。重庆各县市应紧抓"新常态"带来的机遇,转变经济发展方式,完善产业链条,建立有竞争力的产业集群,并在此基础上着力发展特色产业,推动县域经济的可持续发展。     

以激励机制促进矿产资源的高效集约利用

矿产资源节约和综合利用是建立资源节约型、环境友好型社会和加快循环经济发展的重要领域。构建以提高矿山企业资源综合利用能力和企业效益为根本目标的激励机制,有效推进矿产资源节约与综合利用工作,在转变矿业发展方式,促进经济结构调整的同时,为我国经济平稳较快发展提供有力保证。     

森林资源的资产化管理问题及对策

森林资源是国家最重要的自然资源,把森林资源作为资产纳入资产化管理,是适应市场经济发展的一项改革,也是科学合理开发利用森林资源、提高森林资源质量、保证森林资源可持续发展的优化高效的管理手段;结合当前我国的国情和林情,初步分析了森林资源资产化管理的必要性和问题,提出了加强森林资源资产化管理的具体措施和建议。     

我国应实施“资源立国”国家战略

"资源立国"是指资源是一个国家和民族生存和发展的物质基础,国之安危兴衰、民之强弱贫富皆立于其上。"资源立国"战略由三个战略层次、三个核心战略、八个主要战略方向组成。实施"资源立国"国家战略的必要性和必然性,取决于:自然资源在我国经济社会发展中的地位和作用,我国的基本国情,当今的世情。据此,文章提出了实施资源立国战略重大战略举措的九项建议。     

Assessing the trade‐offs of increased mining activity in the Surat Basin,Queensland: preferences of Brisbane residents using nonmarket valuation techniques

The mining boom in Australia since 2003 has produced significant economic benefits for regional, State and National economies, creating new job opportunities and revenue flows. Despite the contribution of the resources sector to economic growth, questions are frequently raised about the concomitant negative social, economic and environmental impacts. The Surat Basin in southern Queensland is a traditional agricultural region with a small but growing coal mining sector and a rapidly developing liquefied natural gas industry (mainly associated with extracting coal seam gas). In this paper, the preferences of residents in Brisbane, the State capital, are explored in relation to the relative importance of social, economic and environmental impacts of the resource boom in the Surat Basin. A choice modelling experiment was conducted to assess the trade‐offs Brisbane residents would make (in monetary terms) between the economic benefits and the associated costs of increased mining activity on local communities. The results identify the strength of concerns about community and environmental impacts and can potentially be used to help evaluate the net benefits of resource development.     

Does China's demand boom curb Australian iron ore mining depletion?

Australia's resources boom is underpinned by increased demand from industrialising China and a rise in export prices. Current depletion rates will soon exhaust currently known reserves of iron ore and coal. This paper presents a dynamic optimisation model of a growing open economy where a social planner chooses the time path for depletion of a non‐renewable resource during a demand‐led resources boom. We find that for particular functional forms and in the absence of extraction and social costs, the optimal depletion rate equals the difference between the price elasticity of export demand times the world interest rate and growth in export demand. In contrast to the existing literature, we show that the optimal depletion rate is unaffected by a temporary increase in price, but reduced by growth in demand which is in turn sustained by offshore steel production and urbanisation. The main theoretical implication is that growth in export demand from China reduces the depletion rate. Australian iron ore exports, simulated using this theory, move together with actual volumes over the period 1995–2011, and the error between simulated and actual iron ore exports is lower for the model in this paper than it is for the model without growth in export demand.     

Evaluation of external market effects and government intervention in Malaysia's agricultural sector: A computable general equilibrium framework

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effects of changes in the external trade environment and domestic economic policies on the agricultural development of Malaysia. The scope of this research also includes providing further insights into the strengths and weaknesses of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) methodology for agricultural policy analysis. The first analysis focuses on the export agriculture sector which encompasses Malaysia's two primary agricultural commodities, rubber and palm oil. Heavily dependent on exports of rubber in the 1950s and 1960s, Malaysia has since built a more diversified economy with strong emphasis on manufacturing. Export agriculture, however, is still an important component of the national economy. The second objective examines the influence of domestic policy on agricultural development. The simulation results demonstrate the growing resiliency of the Malaysian economy to external shocks. Also, they point to the domestic economy's ability to buffer internal Policy-induced distortions.     

What is the Appropriate Counterfactual When Estimating Effects of Multilateral Trade Policy Reform?

Multilateral trade reforms, such as may eventually emerge from the WTO's Doha Development Agenda (DDA), tend to be phased in over a decade or so after agreement is reached. Given the DDA's slow progress, that implementation may not be completed before the end of the next decade. Ex‐ante analysis of the DDA's possible effects thus requires first modelling the world economy to 2030 and, in that process, projecting what trade‐related policies might be by then without a DDA. Typically, modellers assume the counterfactual policy regime to be a ‘business‐as‐usual’ projection assuming the status quo. Yet we know developing country governments tend to switch from taxing to assisting farmers in the course of economic development. This paper shows the difference made by including political economy‐determined agricultural protection growth endogenously in the baseline projection. We reveal that difference by projecting the world economy to 2030 using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model with those two alternative policy regimes and then simulating a move to global free trade (the maximum benefit from a multilateral trade reform) in each of those two cases. The welfare effects of removing the counterfactual price distortions in 2030 are shown to be much larger in the case where agricultural protection grows endogenously than in the case assuming no policy changes over the projection period. This suggests the traditional way of estimating effects of a multilateral agricultural trade agreement may considerably understate the potential welfare gains.     

The rural non-farm sector: issues and evidence from developing countries

The rural non‐farm sector has traditionally been viewed as a low‐productivity sector which produces low quality goods. It is often expected to wither away as a country develops. Recent years have seen a shift away from this position towards recognition that the rural non‐farm sector can, and often does, contribute to economic growth, rural employment, poverty reduction, and a more spatially balanced population distribution. This paper reviews the literature on the conceptual and empirical underpinnings of this more recent perspective, focussing on the experience in developing countries. The paper documents the size and heterogeneity of the sector, pointing to evidence that in many countries the sector is expanding rather than declining. The issues associated with measuring the sector's economic contribution are discussed, followed by empirical assessments for several countries and regions. The distributional impact of non‐farm earnings is examined and it is found that a pro‐poor impact, while by no means inevitable, can be considerable. The sector's trajectory over time, in different settings, is reviewed and the scope for, and experience of, various policy interventions is discussed.     

The politics of the forest frontier: Negotiating between conservation,development, and indigenous rights in Cross River State,Nigeria

Nigeria's once thriving plantation economy has suffered under decades of state neglect and political and civil turmoil. Since Nigeria's return to civilian rule in 1999, in a bid to modernize its ailing agricultural economy, most of its defunct plantations were privatized and large new areas of land were allocated to ‘high-capacity’ agricultural investors. This paper explores the local tensions associated with this policy shift in Cross River State, which, due to its favorable agro-ecological conditions and investment climate, has become one of Nigeria's premier agricultural investment destinations. It shows how the state's increasing reliance on the private sector as an impetus for rural transformation is, paradoxically, crowding out smallholder production systems and creating new avenues for rent capture by political and customary elites. Moreover, as Nigeria's most biodiverse and forested state, the rapid expansion of the agricultural frontier into forest buffer zones is threatening to undermine many of the state's conservation initiatives and valuable common pool resources. The paper goes on to explain why and how private sector interests in Cross River State are increasingly being prioritized over natural resource protection, indigenous rights over the commons, and smallholder production systems.     

Neoliberalism and the revival of agricultural cooperatives: The case of the coffee sector in Uganda

Agricultural cooperatives have seen a comeback in sub‐Saharan Africa. After the collapse of many weakly performing monopolist organizations during the 1980s and 1990s, strengthened cooperatives have emerged since the 2000s. Scholarly knowledge about the state–cooperative relations in which this “revival” takes place remains poor. Based on new evidence from Uganda's coffee sector, this paper discusses the political economy of Africa's cooperative revival. The authors argue that donors' and African governments' renewed support is framed in largely apolitical terms, which obscures the contested political and economic nature of the revival. In the context of neoliberal restructuring processes, state and non‐state institutional support to democratic economic organizations with substantial redistributional agendas remains insufficient. The political–economic context in Uganda—and potentially elsewhere in Africa—contributes to poor terms of trade for agricultural cooperatives while maintaining significant state control over some cooperative activities to protect the status quo interests of big capital and state elites. These conditions are unlikely to produce a conflict‐free, substantial, and sustained revival of cooperatives, which the new promoters of cooperatives suggest is under way.     

基于基尼系数的我国近15年来地区综合发展水平差异评价

基于层次分析法,建立我国地区综合发展指标体系,并结合基尼系数,对1997-2011年全国31个地区的发展进行了综合的数据处理与分析,得出以下结论：①人均GDP水平、经济外向度与科技发展水平等贫富差距明显;②经济增长水平、消费水平和教育水平发展势头较好。最后,提出了发展中小城市与小城镇,实现减小贫富差距的途径。     

Economic development and the role of agricultural technology

In earlier debates on economic development, the agricultural sector's role was somewhat controversial. While dualistic models highlighted the importance of agriculture, the mainstream literature placed a greater emphasis on the creation of a modern industrial sector. Soon agriculture disappeared from the mainstream development literature to re‐emerge recently with a variety of multiple‐sector growth models emphasizing the key role of agriculture and specifically technology in agriculture. This article is an empirical cross‐country analysis of agricultural technology's role in economic development. Specifically, the hypothesis being tested is whether improvements in agricultural technology have a significant impact on long‐run economic growth. The results indicate that agricultural modernization has a positive effect on both measures of economic growth and human development.