Wage returns to education in Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we aim to provide robust estimates of wage returns to education in Ethiopia. Previous estimates vary widely based on the scope and size of the study sample, variables employed, and estimation method. We use two recent rounds of national labour force survey data and a pseudo- (or synthetic) panel framework to address the well-known potential endogeneity of schooling in wage regressions. Birth-year cohort based pseudo-panel estimate of the return to an additional year of education is between 14 percent and 16 percent, 4 to 5 percentage points higher than that from ordinary least squares (OLS). The significant downward bias in OLS is further confirmed by two-year pseudo-panel estimates and remains robust, to a large extent, as we use an alternate model, change the estimation sample, and address selection bias concurrently with endogenous schooling using a novel approach. We discuss some possible explanations in the context of Ethiopia.     

Patterns of Change in Child Labour and Schooling in Turkey: The Impact of Compulsory Schooling

Substantial improvements have taken place in the employment and schooling of children in Turkey. Decomposition analysis based on data from two time periods shows that a substantial part of the drop in child labour and over half of the increase in school enrolment can be attributed to the changing cost and benefit structures of work and schooling rather than to changing population characteristics. This paper establishes that work and schooling are incompatible activities and that the negative association between them has increased over time. The observed changes are attributed to the extension of compulsory schooling and the ban on child labour.     

The political economy of multidimensional child poverty measurement: a comparative analysis of Mexico and Uganda

ABSTRACT

As part of the 2030 Agenda, much effort has been exerted in comparing multidimensional child poverty measures both technically and conceptually. Yet, few countries have adopted and used any of these measures in policymaking. This paper explores the reasons for this absence from a political economy perspective. It develops an innovative political economy framework for poverty measurement and a hypothesis whereby a country will only produce and use reliable and sustainable multidimensional child poverty (MDCP) measures if and only if three conditions coalesce: consensus, capacity and polity. We explore this framework with two relevant case studies, Mexico and Uganda. Both countries satisfy the capacity condition required to measure MDCP but only Mexico satisfies the other two conditions. Our proposed political economy framework is normatively relevant because it identifies the conditions that need to change across multiple contexts before the effective adoption and use of an MDCP measure becomes more likely.     

Rural employment in industrialised countries⋆

This paper assesses the recent changes in rural employment in the OECD countries, highlighting the growing role of employment in services and, in some cases, manufacturing activity. In many, but not all, rural areas the secular decline in agricultural employment has been more than counterbalanced by growing employment in these other sectors. However, the diversity of employment growth within and between rural areas is stressed, as are the implications of this diversity for policy. A range of explanations for the relative economic success of some rural areas is explored. These include the impacts of globalisation; restructuring of the labour market; new‘consumption’ demands on the rural areas; and human mobility. The paper concludes that traditional theories do not explain the diversity of outcomes in rural areas. New approaches are needed. Recent analyses under the banner of‘the new economic geography’ has advanced our understanding of the pre‐conditions for rural development to occur, but understanding the diverse pattern of rural employment outcomes within the same kind of geography remains a challenge which needs to be addressed by inter‐disciplinary approaches and methods.     

Chinese Peasant Choices: Migration,Rural Industry or Farming

A nationally representative rural labour force survey of China is analysed to explore the allocation of labour among farming, local non-farming and temporary migration activities. Various tests of labour market segmentation are conducted. The estimated returns to labour off the farm greatly exceed those on the farm. The personal and household determinants of activities, and of days worked in them, are examined for demand or supply constraints on employment; some results are consistent with the former. The relationship between days worked off and on the farm suggests that the opportunity cost to households of non-farm work is very low. The evidence is consistent with there being rationing of non-farm employment. However, tastes, imperfect information, imperfect capital markets, risk-aversion and transaction costs are also relevant. The overcoming of the obstacles to diversification away from farming is important for rural development in China.     

Determinants of Schooling in Egypt: The Role of Gender and Rural/Urban Residence

In this paper, we examine if there are gender differences in schooling attainment and the extent to which these differences are exacerbated for rural children in Egypt. Using a nationally representative cross-sectional survey, our estimation results find strong support for the hypothesis that being male and living in urban areas significantly improves child schooling. We show that relative to a female child who is “never enrolled” in school, a male child is over twice as likely to be currently attending school, and over two-and-a-half times more likely to have some schooling. These positive effects are particularly strong for rural male children. There are also regional variations, with a child (male or female) living in Upper Rural Egypt having a significantly lower likelihood of being currently enrolled. Finally, our estimation results point to large positive effects of father's education on the probability of current enrolment for all children. Mother's education, however, improves only the likelihood of current enrolment for female children, with no significant effect on male children.     

Terrorism and women’s employment in Afghanistan

ABSTRACT

Afghanistan is one of the most dangerous countries for women and has the sixth lowest women’s employment rate globally. Evidence shows that security concerns prevent women from working, but there is little work estimating the magnitude of or mechanism behind these effects. We address this gap in the literature by estimating the relationship between increased terrorist attacks and women’s employment using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and the 2015 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). We find the number of attacks is negatively associated with men’s and women’s employment, yet the relative magnitude is larger for women due to their low employment rate. Conversely, we find that an increase in fatalities is associated with higher women’s employment, suggesting that women replace men that have died from attacks. This research illuminates a potential link between women’s employment and terrorism, thus adding to the ever-increasing knowledge of the costs of conflict.     

Does maternal employment affect child nutrition status? New evidence from Egypt

Even though maternal employment can increase family income, several studies suggest that it could have adverse consequences on children’s health. In this study, we use a nationally representative sample of 12,888 children, aged 0–5 years from Egypt to examine the impact of maternal employment on child nutritional indicators, namely: stunting, wasting, and being underweight and overweight. We adopted various estimation methods to control for observable and unobservable household characteristics in order to identify the causal effect of maternal employment. These different techniques include, propensity score matching (PSM), OLS regression with controlling for a wide range of individual characteristics, and an instrumental variable two-stage least squares (IV 2SLS) approach. Results of the PSM and OLS suggest that maternal employment is weakly associated with having a malnourished child. On the other hand, the IV 2SLS suggests a stronger and significant association between maternal employment and poor nutritional status among children.     

A methodology to assess the current situation in irrigated agriculture: An application to the village of Tauste (Spain)

Abstract

This paper presents a simple weighted goal programming model which can be used to predict the current allocation of agricultural enterprises in a particular geographical area. Moreover, it also shows how the approach proposed can be integrated into a multiobjective framework to measure the opportunity cost of maintaining the current situation in terms of several criteria relevant from a private and a public perspective. In this way, the opportunity cost of sustaining the current allocation of agricultural enterprises in the irrigated lands of Tauste (Spain) is assessed in terms of gross margin, employment, seasonal labour and water consumption.     

An Analysis of the Linkage Between Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth in Pakistan

Summary

This article examines the relationship between agricultural exports and economic growth. Pakistan is used as a case study due to its large amounts of agricultural exports which have competed with industry for government support. This study estimates three simultaneous equations representing GDP, agricultural exports, and total imports while incorporating factors such as income remittances from abroad, investment, and manufactured exports as independent variables. The timing of this information is critical as Pakistan's policy makers now face major agricultural reforms in their quest for development. The estimation results show that a favorable relationship exists between agricultural exports and growth in GDP.     

Liberalization and labour: The fate of retrenched workers in the cotton textile industry in India

Abstract

In 1991 the Indian government began to tread seriously the path of liberalization. It started to open up the economy, discuss the privatization of the public sector, invite foreign investment and reform the labour market. Liberalization has proved to be highly controversial. While there has been considerable debate about the consequences for labour, there have been few empirical studies of the effects so far. This paper intends to address this lacuna by focusing on the case of retrenched workers in the cotton textile industry. Our argument is fourfold. First, it cannot be assumed that the informal sector can readily absorb a sudden localized surge in unemployment. Second, even where retrenched workers have found employment in the informal sector, their conditions of employment in terms of wages, working hours, health and safety and representation are likely to be worse. Third, the National Renewal Fund has not been effective as a social safety‐net for retrenched workers nor as a mechanism for regenerating industry. Finally, it cannot be assumed that the trade unions will be able to negotiate a satisfactory deal for redundant workers. These points are explored through an investigation into retrenched workers in the cotton textile mills of Ahmedabad, Gujarat state.     

Agricultural technology adoption and child nutrition enhancement: improved maize varieties in rural Ethiopia

Adoption of improved crop varieties can lead to multiple benefits to farm households, including increased productivity, incomes, and food consumption. However, possible impacts of adoption on child nutrition outcomes are rarely explored in the literature. This article helps bridge this gap through an impact assessment of the adoption of improved maize varieties (IMVs) on child nutrition outcomes using a recent household survey from rural Ethiopia. The conceptual linkage between IMV adoption and child nutrition is first established using an agricultural household model. Instrumental variable estimation suggests the overall impacts of adoption on child height‐for‐age and weight‐for‐age z‐scores to be positive and significant. Quantile instrumental variable regressions further reveal that such impacts are largest among children with poorest nutrition outcomes. Finally, by combining a decomposition procedure with system of equations estimation, it is found that the increase in own‐produced maize consumption is the major channel through which IMV adoption affects child nutrition.     

Farm machinery use,off‐farm employment and farm performance in China

We analyse the joint impacts of farm machinery use and off‐farm employment on maize yields and agrochemical expenses from a household survey of 493 farmers in China. Our findings are obtained from an innovative two‐stage econometric procedure that combines a bivariate ordered probit model with an endogeneity‐corrected ordinary least square regression model. The results show that farmers are jointly making decisions to use farm machines and to work off the farm and that these two household activities affect maize yields and agrochemical expenses in different ways. We show that farm machinery use significantly increases both maize yields and agrochemical expenses, while off‐farm employment significantly decreases agrochemical expenses. Our findings highlight the importance of additional machinery use in increasing farm production; the need to account for possible endogeneity in estimation; and the statistical significance of key household characteristics (gender, education, and household size) on overall farm production.     

When do Agricultural Exports Help the Rural Poor? A Political-economy Approach

Many economists have argued that agricultural exports should be one of the best ways to reduce rural poverty in developing countries, through the creation of productive employment in the rural areas. Non-economists have tended to be sceptical, often seeing such exports as competitive with food crops and thus potentially threatening to an adequate supply of food. The historical record includes many cases in which the prospect of profitable agricultural exports prompted the rich/powerful to appropriate land formerly occupied by lower income agricultural workers, often squatters or people with traditional land rights. That record, as currently understood, leaves it unclear whether such exports have more frequently brought benefits to the rural poor or hurt them. An adequate model of the poverty effects of agricultural exports must thus take account of how control of land (and labour as well) may be shifted among groups without compensation as it becomes more valuable. Two major issues/questions are of current interest. First, have the unjust mechanisms whereby the rich wrested valuable resources from the poor in the past become less common? Second, is there evidence that the sort of labour-intensive agricultural exports most likely to benefit the poor are growing fast enough to suggest an important poverty effect at present and in the future? More in-depth research is needed to clarify both points. For the present, it appears unlikely that agricultural exports will be a major source of poverty reduction for the rural poor in the Third World taken as a whole.     

Do rural public works influence agricultural wages? The case of the employment guarantee scheme in India

Abstract

Since growth alone will not make a significant difference to agricultural wages in an oligopsonistic labour market, a case is made out for special employment programmes along the lines of the Employment Guarantee Scheme (EGS) in the Indian state of Maharashtra. The EGS has a substantial effect on agricultural wages—especially long‐term. Diminution of income supplementation through this scheme, following a sharp reduction in the share of poor participants, was thus partly offset by higher agricultural wages. To the extent that this income diminution reflected exclusion of the poor from the EGS because of deficiencies in its design and implementation, prompt remedial action would enhance significantly their bargaining power vis‐a‐vis that of large landholders.     

Where Does Education Pay Off in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from Two Cities of the Republic of Congo

Using first-hand data from the 2009 Employment and Informal Sector Survey (EESIC) in the two largest cities of the Republic of Congo, Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire, we analyze the impact of education on labour market outcomes, and identify the segments where education pays off the most. Multivariate analyses of the risk of unemployment and sectoral choice indicate that young people face serious difficulties in the labour market: for most of them, their only choice is to remain unemployed or to join the informal sector. To measure the specific impact of schooling on earnings, we address issues related to sample selection and endogeneity of education in the earnings function. The results shed light on heterogeneity in the returns to schooling across the two main cities and institutional sectors. An important finding is that the informal sector does not systematically lag behind the formal sectors in terms of returns to education. We emphasize convex returns to education, meaning that the last years in secondary and tertiary schooling yield the highest returns, while those of primary education are generally lower. This convexity is also apparent in the informal sector, where education (albeit on another scale) again appears as an important determinant of earnings.     

Structural transformation in emerging economies: leading sectors and the balanced growth hypothesis

The paper uses the World Input-Output Database to address patterns of structural transformation in BRIC countries, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico and Turkey. Sectoral drivers of aggregate labour productivity growth, and the relative importance of within-sector versus employment reallocation effects on aggregate labour productivity growth, are evaluated using growth accounting decomposition methods. Decomposition results are used to assess how patterns of structural transformation relate to macroeconomic performance in terms of aggregate labour productivity, output and employment growth. Together with the construction of ‘Hirschman compliance indices’, decomposition results are also used to shed light on the balanced versus unbalanced growth debates. The paper goes on to assess the extent of complementarities between manufacturing and information and communications technology-intensive advanced services through intermediate inputs, comparing the eight emerging countries with G7 countries over time.     

LABOUR SUPPLY AND OFF-FARM WORK BY FARMERS: THEORY AND ESTIMATION

Off-farm employment has become increasingly important as an aspect of resource adjustment and a source of income in Australian agriculture. However, it is surprising that there is a paucity of work on this topic reported in the agricultural economics literature. Therefore, we have drawn upon recent developments in labour economics in order to investigate off-farm employment in Australia. A conceptual model of the allocation of a farmer's labour between farm and off-farm work is developed and applied to cross-sectional data from the Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey. A Tobit maximum likelihood procedure is utilised to test the influences of the life cycle, level of human capital, wealth, non-wage income and farm income on the off-farm labour supply of farmers.     

Agricultural mechanisation and gendered labour activities across sectors: Micro-evidence from multi-country farm household data

The gender difference in employment across sectors is a critical element of gender inequality in rural livelihoods and welfare in developing countries. The role of production technologies, including agricultural mechanisation, in addressing gender inequality is increasingly explored. Knowledge gaps remain, however, including how agricultural mechanisation differentially affects labour engagements across sectors. This study aims to partly fill these knowledge gaps through micro-evidence from seven countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, Tanzania, India, Nepal and Vietnam), using several nationally representative panel data and supplementary data and applying correlated random effects double-hurdle models with instrumental variables. We find that the use of tractors and/or combine harvesters by the household induces a greater shift from farm activities to non-farm activities by female members than by male members. While statistical significance varies, these patterns generally hold consistently across all seven countries studied. These patterns also hold across different farm sizes. While these are short-term relations, agricultural mechanisation proxied by tractors and/or combine harvesters is one of the crucial contributors to gendered rural livelihood. Future studies should more closely investigate these patterns' underlying mechanisms and implications.     

Labour Market Effects of a Female Stipend Programme in Bangladesh

Bangladesh's female secondary education stipend programme was one of the first conditional cash transfer programmes in the world. While numerous studies have investigated the impacts of such programmes on school enrolment, attendance and learning, less attention has been paid to their long-term labour market effects. This article extends the literature by studying the effects of Bangladesh's programme on earnings and the sector of employment, as well as on labour force participation and education outcomes, using repeated cross-sectional data in a difference-in-difference framework. We find that exposure to 5 years of the programme is be associated with a 1-year increase in education level completed and an increase in female labour force participation by six percentage points. However, we find that wages decrease by about 17% because the women have difficulties in finding a good job and end up in low productivity self-employment work.