Implementing the Kyoto Accord in Canada: Abatement Costs and Policy Enforcement Mechanisms

The anticipated abatement costs to be incurred by Canada and six of its provinces from the implementation of the Kyoto agreement (reduction of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions generated by fossil fuel burning by 6% from 1990 levels) are estimated using an emissions benefit function. Marginal abatement cost functions are estimated and used for the analysis of alternative policy enforcement mechanisms. The efficiency of a policy mechanism depends on the rule used to allocate the burden of the agreement among the provinces and on whether the provinces or the federal government implement the agreement at the provincial level. Under the rule of an equal emission reduction of 6% over 1990 levels in all provinces, Quebec bears no abatement costs while British Columbia and Saskatchewan incur the highest costs. An allocation rule based on the equimarginal principle achieves aggregate efficiency; it is, however, the rule that contains the risk of noncompliance by provinces that have already taken action toward emissions reduction. Les auteurs estiment ce qu‘il en coûtera au Canada et à six de ses provinces pour adopter les mesures antipollution qu'exigera la mise en ?uvre du protocole de Kyoto (réduction de 6 % des rejets de CO₂ attribuables aux combustibles fossiles par rapport aux chiffres de 1990) au moyen d'une fonction faisant intervenir avantages et émissions. Ils estiment les fonctions du coût marginal des mesures antipollution et se servent des résultats pour étudier d'autres mécanismes visant à faire respecter les politiques. L'efficacité du mécanisme d'exécution dépendra, d'une part, de la régle qui servira à répartir le fardeau de la mise en ?uvre entre les provinces et, d‘autre part, de l‘application de l'accord par le gouvernement fédéral ou provincial, au niveau des provinces. En supposant une réduction uniforme des rejets de 6 % par rapport aux relevés de 1990, dans toutes les provinces, l'exécution des mesures antipollution ne coûtera rien au Québec, tandis que la Colombie‐Britannique et la Saskatchewan accuseront les frais les plus élevés. Une régle de répartition reposant sur le principe de l'équimarginalité s'avérera efficace globalement, mais on courra le risque que les provinces qui ont déjà pris des mesures pour combattre la pollution refusent de s‘y plier.     

Is forest carbon sequestration at the expense of bioenergy and forest products cost-efficient in EU climate policy to 2050?

Forest management affects the quantity of CO₂ emissions in the atmosphere through carbon sequestration in standing biomass, carbon storage in forest products and production of bioenergy. The main question studied in this paper is whether forest carbon sequestration is worth increasing at the expense of bioenergy and forest products to achieve the EU emissions reduction target for 2050 in a cost-efficient manner. A dynamic cost minimisation model is used to find the optimal combination of carbon abatement strategies to meet annual emissions targets between 2010 and 2050. The results indicate that forest carbon sequestration is a low-cost abatement method. With sequestration, the net present costs of meeting EU carbon targets can be reduced by 23%.     

Identifying and Applying a Comparative Advantage Framework in Canadian Supply-Managed Agriculture

The marketing of table eggs, broiler hatching eggs, chickens, and turkeys in Canada is limited by federal and provincial supply management (SM) legislation through production quotas. The respective national regulatory agencies in each of these industries allocate, among the provinces, growth in national quotas called “overbase.” Federal legislation stipulates that the allocation of overbase among provinces must take into account the principle of comparative advantage (CA) of production. None of the agencies pertaining to the feather industry has ever identified and applied CA in national quota allocation decisions. To fill this void, we modify the revealed comparative advantage approach developed by Balassa and Bowen to identify CA and develop a provincial agricultural CA index to assign overbase allocations among provinces. Overbase quota allocations should shift toward the agriculturally intensive Prairie provinces that have a CA in the Canadian feather industry and away from the nonagricultural industry‐intensive provinces. Our method of SM overbase quota allocation is consistent with the objectives of Canadian SM legislation. Au Canada, la commercialisation des æufs de consommation, des æufs d'incubation de poulet de chair, du poulet et du dindon est régie par un régime de gestion de l'offre encadré par des lois fédérales et provinciales. Chaque organisme de réglementation national divise, entre les provinces, la croissance des contingents nationaux appelés ?contingent supplémentaire?. La loi fédérale stipule que l'attribution des contingents supplémentaires entre les provinces doit tenir compte du principe d'avantage comparatif en matière de production. Aucun des organismes du secteur de la volaille n'a déterminé l'avantage comparatif ni ne l'a appliqué dans les décisions d'attribution des contingents nationaux. Pour combler cette lacune, nous avons modifié la méthode de ?l'avantage comparatif révélé?élaborée par Balassa (1965) et Bowen (1983; 1985; 1986) pour déterminer l'avantage comparatif et établir un index des avantages comparatifs agricoles provinciaux pour l'attribution des contingents supplémentaires entre les provinces. L'attribution des contingents supplémentaires devrait être dirigée vers les provinces des Prairies très agricoles qui ont un avantage comparatif dans le secteur canadien de la volaille et devrait être écartée des provinces moins agricoles. Notre méthode d'attribution des contingents supplémentaires concorde avec les objectifs de la loi canadienne sur la gestion de l'offre.     

Non‐Parametric Modelling of CO2 Emission Quota

Dutch glasshouse firms are facing the introduction of a system of tradable CO₂ emission quotas. This paper employs a non‐parametric method for modelling tradable CO₂ emissions of Dutch glasshouse firms. The method is capable of generating shifts in CO₂ emissions across the sample of firms. Moreover, changes in volumes of outputs produced and inputs used are computed. Results show that firms using a conventional heating technology will be net purchasers of CO₂ emissions, whereas firms using more advanced heating technologies will sell part of their emission quota.     

Assessment of land use and land cover changes and valuation of carbon stocks in the Sergipe semiarid region,Brazil: 1992–2030

The semiarid region in the state of Sergipe, Brazil, approximately 11,000 km², has experienced high deforestation rates in the last decades, which ultimately contribute to global climatic changes. The valuation of ecosystem services of CO₂ sequestration can support definition of environmental policies to decrease deforestation in that region. This study aimed to assess land use and land cover changes in the Sergipe semiarid region between 1992 and 2017 by applying remotely sensed data and technics; simulate the land use and land cover changes between 2017 and 2030 by applying a cellular automaton model, by assuming current land use trends (Business as Usual – BAU) as a reference scenario, and a more conservative scenario (Protected Forest – PF), in which was assumed an effective enforcement of the Brazilian Forest Code established in 2012; simulate the carbon stocks by 2017 assuming the BAU and PF scenarios by 2030, and estimate the Carbon balance between the 2030 and 2017 scenarios; and estimate the economic valuation of carbon emission and sequestration by using the InVEST software. The results showed that agriculture (cropped lands) was main driver of the landscape changes in the study area, which increased 14% by 2017, a net increase of 1494.45 km². The results showed that the total Carbon emissions would reach 736,900 Mg CO₂-eq by assuming the BAU scenario, which would increase the cost of opportunity up to US$ 17.7 million and a social carbon cost varying between US$ 10.3 and US$ 30.2 million. The restoration of the permanent preservation areas could contribute to increase Carbon sequestration up to 481,900 Mg CO₂-eq by 2030, which is equivalent cost of US$ 11.6 million. The natural landscape in the Sergipe semiarid region was strongly affected by deforestation activities occurred between 1992 and 2017. It requires, therefore, effective actions to support and promote restoration of degraded areas. The forested areas within the Sergipe semiarid region were the most affected type of vegetation because of expansion of agricultural fields soil exposures (Exposed Land). Environmental assessments based on scenarios and economic valuations can provide crucial information to support policy and decision makers to improve strategies for environmental management and conservation.     

The regional economic effects of a reduction in carbon emissions

Concern about climate change has led to policy to reduce CO₂ emissions although it is likely that policy will have differential regional impacts. While regional impacts will be politically important, very little analysis of them has been carried out. This paper contributes to the analysis of this issue by building a small model involving two regions, incorporating the right to emit CO₂ as a factor of production with the level of permitted emissions set by the national government. We argue that there is likely to be pressure on governments to use other policies to offset the possible adverse regional economic consequences of the pollution‐reduction policy; we also consider a range of such policies. Using numerical simulation, we find that a 10 per cent reduction has relatively small but regionally differentiated economic effects. Standard fiscal policies are generally ineffective or counterproductive while labour market policies are more useful in offsetting the adverse effects.     

Les avantages comparatifs dans I'agriculture canadienne et le partage interprovincial des quotas laitiers

L'objectif de cet article est d'utiliser la théorie des avantages comparatifs pour éclairer le débat sur la question du partage interprovicial des quotas laitiers. Une mesure des avantages comparatifs dans I'agriculture canadienne est effectuée pour la période 1958–1987. La méthodologie utilisée est similaire à celle d'autres travaux non spécifiquement reliés à la production agricole. IIs'agit d'une mesure indirecte des avantages comparatifs révélés par les flux de commerce. Ceci nous a permis d'établir un classement des productions indiquant où se trouvent les avantages comparatifs de chaque province et du pays. On peut en conclure que les ajustements qui ont été faits ces dernières années au niveau du partage des quotas entre les provinces ne reflètent pas les avantages comparatifs de production.
The objective of this paper is to use comparative advantage theory to discuss the question of interprovincial milk quota allocation. Comparative agricultural production advantage in various Canadian provinces is measured for the 1958-87 period. The methodology used is similar to that in other studies not specifically related to agricultural production. This indirect assessment measures revealed comparative advantage by means of trade flows. This allows a ranking of the products according to comparative advantage in each province and for the country. One conclusion of this study is that adjustments in interprovincial allocation of quotas over the past few years do not reflect comparative advantage in production.     

The Impact of FDI on CO2 Emissions in Latin America

This paper uses panel Granger causality tests to study the relationship between sector-specific foreign direct investment (FDI) and CO₂ emissions. Using a sample of 18 Latin American countries for the period 1980–2007, we find causality running from FDI in pollution-intensive industries (“the dirty sector”) to CO₂ emissions per capita. This result is robust to controlling for other factors associated with CO₂ emissions and using the ratio of CO₂ emissions to GDP. For other sectors, we find no robust evidence that FDI causes CO₂ emissions.     

碳排放权交易制度设计的若干问题

自2011年我国开展碳排放权交易试点以来,各试点省市正紧锣密鼓开展机制和政策设计、法规和技术储备、MRV基础能力建设等工作。由于缺乏国家层面的顶层设计,各地探索的政策理解、重点、切入点、推进思路不尽相同,离预期目标仍有差距。试点工作2年多,碳排放权交易制度设计的一些关键环节尚无实质性突破。鉴于此,本文重点对配额总量设置、配额分配、体制缺陷、法规创设、MRV机制等关键问题进行解析,并提出相应的思路与建议。     

Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for UK Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions

This article addresses the challenge of developing a ‘bottom‐up’ marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from UK agriculture. An MACC illustrates the costs of specific crop, soil and livestock abatement measures against a ‘business as usual’ scenario. The results indicate that in 2022 under a specific policy scenario, around 5.38 Mt CO₂ equivalent (e) could be abated at negative or zero cost. A further 17% of agricultural GHG emissions (7.85 Mt CO₂e) could be abated at a lower unit cost than the UK Government’s 2022 shadow price of carbon [£34 (tCO₂e)^?1]. The article discusses a range of methodological hurdles that complicate cost‐effectiveness appraisal of abatement in agriculture relative to other sectors.     

Policy options towards deforestation reduction in Cameroon: An analysis based on a systematic approach

This study advances measures that can combat deforestation in Cameroon. It also looks at possible carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission reductions and the effects on gross domestic product (GDP) and employment based on selected baseline scenarios based on reductions in deforestation. A systematic approach of analyzing the drivers, agents, socio-economic context, political context, spatial context of deforestation and specific and general deforestation reduction policies is used. The final step of the approach is to verify the repercussions of deforestation reduction on CO₂ emissions, employment and GDP. Monitoring population growth and arable production through intensification of production is promising. The general policies that this study postulates are enforcement, legal adherence, specification of tasks and quotas, collaboration, forest licensing and monitoring. More specific policies could be within the reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation mechanism (REDD+) as well as diversification of livelihoods, mechanization, use of fertilizers and intensive cattle farming inter alia. Reductions in deforestation will reduce atmospheric CO₂, employment in the forestry sector and the share of forestry's contribution to GDP.     

Making explicit agricultural ecosystem service trade-offs: a case study of an English lowland arable farm

European farmland hosts a species assemblage of animals and plants which have undergone declines through the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, at least partly as a result of increased productivity. Further increases in human populations, changes in availability and cost of raw materials, policy constraints, price volatility and climatic changes will further drive greater efficiency and high yields in agriculture, with the risk of further adverse environmental impacts. We assess the effects of different management priorities (production-driven cropping vs. wildlife-friendly farming) at an arable farm in eastern England on food production, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and biodiversity. We modelled one actual and three alternative cropping scenarios using actual yields from the farm over 13 years, to calculate total yields and those foregone for agri-environmental measures. We measured crop yields, relative abundance of 19 farmland bird species, and CO₂ and N₂O emissions related to crop production. Removing up to 10.5% of land from production coupled with a more diverse rotation (including legumes) resulted in a large increase in breeding birds (177%) and reduction of 9.4% in GHG emissions at the cost of 9.6% of food energy. Food protein lost was only 2.9%. A smaller increase in bird numbers of 50% could be achieved at a much smaller cost to yield (～1.7% energy or protein) but with correspondingly smaller emissions reductions (1.2%). Results are discussed within the context of continued biodiversity loss to agriculture, increasing food demand and changing diets.     

The importance of ‘extremely unlikely’ events: tail risk and the costs of climate change

In assessing the risks associated with climate change, ‘tail risks’ (low‐probability extreme events) often play a much larger role than their probability alone might indicate. There are three main reasons for this: the linear relationship between sensitivity and warming; the convexity of the damage function; and the concavity of the utility function. Ignoring the upper tail of the distribution of possible outcomes will result in serious underestimates of the social cost of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and of the socially optimal price for emissions.     

Interprovincial Reallocation of Market Sharing Quota for Industrial Milk

This paper examines allocations of industrial milk quota across provinces in Canada under two hypothetical scenarios. The study focuses on the case where considerable reallocation of production occurs across farms and provinces due to changes in the distribution of quota holdings. The allocations are determined using linear programming (LP) analysis, where the objective of the optimization problem is to minimize the delivered cost of products such as cheese, butter, ice cream, and yogurt. The LP model seeks to meet provincial targets for domestic disappearance on a milk-equivalent basis in the short to medium term, where limits are imposed on the maximum achievable growth of production and processing capacity in any one I he conclusions are that reallocation of existing quota across farms and provinces has a potential to reduce considerably the costs of industrial milk production and the cost of transporting manufactured products.     

城市化进程中江苏省耕地资源非农化转化的实证分析

伴随着我国经济的快速发展和城市化进程的加快，对土地资源的需求量急剧上升，作为土地中的精华——耕地资源也在农业部门和经济建设之间面临着如何分配的矛盾。如何确保耕地资源在粮食安全和经济发展间的优化配置已经成为一个迫切需要解决的问题。本文试图通过对江苏省耕地数量的变动态势进行分析，并运用区域容许耕地转换量化模型（MAC）来确定江苏省可以允许转换的耕地的最优数量，借此来确定区域耕地保护的底线及调控指标．为城市化进程中区域耕地资源的优化配置提供一种依据和解决思路．     

Soil CO2 emission and carbon budget of a wheat/maize annual double-cropped system in response to tillage and residue management in the North China Plain

To investigate the impacts of tillage and crop residue managements on soil CO₂ emission and C budget in a wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)/maize (Zea mays L.) double-cropped system in the North China Plain (NCP), a field experiment was conducted consisting of four treatments: tillage with crop residues retention (CT+), tillage with crop residues removal (CT?), no-till with crop residues retention (NT+), and no-till with crop residues removal (NT?). Daily soil CO₂ fluxes changed with crop growing stage and peaked during the most vigorous growth of period, fluxes in maize season were higher than those in wheat season. Compared to the tilled soils, cumulative CO₂ emissions were significantly lower under no-till treatments. The largest cumulative CO₂ emission occurred under CT+ (65?g CO₂-C m^?2 y^?1) and the smallest was under NT+ (39?g CO₂-C m^?2 y^?1). After 5 years of the experiment, soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration were greater with crop residues retention (CT+ and NT+) than with crop residues removal (CT? and NT?), the maximum SOC stock was in NT+ (5940?g C m^?2) while the minimum was in CT? (3635?g C m^?2). NT+ could help to mitigate CO₂ emission in the annual wheat/maize double-cropping system of the area.     

粮食虚拟水流动对水资源和区域经济的影响研究

[目的]通过省际粮食虚拟水流动分析,探讨其对水资源和区域经济的影响,以期为保障我国粮食安全和水安全提供有益借鉴。[方法]以我国31个省(市、自治区)为研究单元,通过引入距离分量对2006、2015年我国省际粮食虚拟水贸易的空间分布格局及驱动因素进行解析,在此基础上评价虚拟水贸易所引起的生态效应和经济价值变化。[结果]结果表明:近年来我国省际粮食虚拟水流动更加频繁,整体表现出由北向南的逆向流动格局,但输出省份的范围呈萎缩状态,部分输出区已转变为输入区,有近50%的输出省份虚拟水输出量大幅下降,虚拟水输出有进一步向黑龙江等产粮大省集中的趋势;水资源并非是影响虚拟水贸易最关键的因素,耕地资源禀赋、资源优化配置以及经济发展水平对虚拟水的影响作用也是不容忽视的;2015年粮食虚拟水流动在国家层面上共形成276亿m3的节水量,对国内经济增长的贡献份额达到2.836 6万亿元,但虚拟水的输出使输出区水资源压力指数由0.84(假设输出区粮食虚拟水输出为0)上升到1.20,地区生产总值由42.675 9万亿元(假设用于输出的粮食虚拟水全部转变为工业用水和服务业用水)减少到28.597 4万亿元。[结论]省际粮食虚拟水流动在国家尺度上有节水和促进经济发展的作用,但对输出区有较大的破坏作用,输出区存在将粮食生产用水转变为其他高收益产业用水的可能,针对以上结果提出解决我国粮食虚拟水流动负面效应的相关建议。     

Marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions: broadacre farming in the Great Southern Region of Western Australia

Broadacre agriculture is a major emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG). To improve efficiency of climate change policies, we need to know the marginal abatement costs of agricultural GHG. This article combines calculations of on‐farm GHG emissions with an input‐based distance function approach to estimate the marginal abatement costs for a broadacre farming system in the Great Southern Region of Western Australia. The results show that, in the study region, the average marginal abatement cost for the 1998–2005 periods was $29.3 per tonne CO₂‐e. Farms with higher crop output shares were found to have higher marginal abatement costs. Overall, our results indicate that broadacre agriculture is among the lowest cost sources of GHG mitigation.     

2015—2019年北京市农业氧化亚氮排放变化与分析

[目的]温室气体排放是农业绿色发展的重要指标,而氧化亚氮(N₂O)是农业温室气体的重要组成部分。为了了解北京市农业N₂O的排放情况,并为北京市低碳农业发展提出建议。[方法]文章运用文献调研与数据统计方法,收集了2015—2019年北京市各区种植业与畜牧业基础数据,进行全市和各区的农业N₂O排放核算工作,并对核算结果及其不确定性进行分析。[结果](1) 2015—2019年北京市农业N₂O排放呈下降趋势,2019年北京农业N₂O排放量为26.1万tCO₂e,较2015年减少了46.88万tCO₂e,减排率高达64.2%;(2)种植业N₂O为北京市农业N₂O最大排放源,占2015—2019年北京市农业N₂O排放年均贡献率的58.3%;(3) 2015—2019年北京市种植业N₂O与畜牧业N₂O排放均呈下降趋势,它们的最大排放源分别...