Farmers’ constraints,governmental support and climate change adaptation: Evidence from Guangdong Province,China

While climate change is widely acknowledged, the role of government support in adaptation is less understood. We narrow this knowledge gap by modelling adaptation as a three‐stage process where a farmer sequentially decides: (i) whether there is a need for adaptation; (ii) whether there are constraints that prevent adaptation; and (iii) whether such constraints are removed through government support. We develop a triple‐hurdle model to describe this decision‐making process and empirically estimate the impact of government support using a rural household survey from Guangdong Province, China. It is found that government support is positively associated with raising the odds of adaptation by about one quarter. This magnitude is larger than the estimates in recent literature, suggesting government support is more effective for farmers bound by constraints. Therefore, for cost‐effective policy outcomes there is a need to identify the constraints and the farmers facing them.     

The importance of ‘extremely unlikely’ events: tail risk and the costs of climate change

In assessing the risks associated with climate change, ‘tail risks’ (low‐probability extreme events) often play a much larger role than their probability alone might indicate. There are three main reasons for this: the linear relationship between sensitivity and warming; the convexity of the damage function; and the concavity of the utility function. Ignoring the upper tail of the distribution of possible outcomes will result in serious underestimates of the social cost of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and of the socially optimal price for emissions.     

The impact of population growth and climate change on food security in Africa: looking ahead to 2050

Providing nutritious and environmentally sustainable food to all people at all times is one of the greatest challenges currently facing society. This problem is particularly acute in Africa where an estimated one in four people still lack adequate food to sustain an active and healthy life. In this study, we consider the potential impact of future population growth and climate change on food security in Africa, looking ahead to 2050. A modelling framework termed FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation) was used which was characterized to model the impacts of future climate changes (utilizing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios projections) and projected population growth on food availability and subsequent undernourishment prevalence in 44 African countries. Our results indicate that projected rapid population growth will be the leading cause of food insecurity and widespread undernourishment across Africa. Very little to no difference in undernourishment projections were found when we examined future scenarios with and without the effects of climate change, suggesting population growth is the dominant driver of change. Various adaptation options are discussed, such as closing the yield gap via sustainable intensification and increasing imports through trade and aid agreements. These strategies are likely to be critical in preventing catastrophic future food insecurity.     

Landownership Distribution,Socio‐Economic Precariousness and Empowerment: The Role of Small Peasants in Maresme County (Catalonia,Spain) from 1850 to the 1950s

I present fresh data that show the leading role played by smallholder peasants in land‐use intensification, technical improvement and landscape transformation in Maresme County (province of Barcelona, Spain) between 1850 and the 1950s. As a reaction to their precarious situation, caused by an unequal landownership distribution (which is assessed by looking at the minimum‐income and maximum workable farm sizes), smallholders drove agrarian changes in this coastal Mediterranean area. The results of their individual efforts, and their collective action through social mobilization and cooperatives, entailed a socio‐economic and political improvement, especially in denser populated areas closer to markets, until the arrival of Franco's regime.     

Barriers and requirements to climate change adaptation of mountainous rural communities in developing countries: The case of the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau of China

Systematically identifying the barriers and requirements to adaptation is critical to the successful implementation of climate adaptation planning and policies at the local level, especially in the mountainous rural communities of developing countries with limited resources and technology. We conducted an empirical study of the barriers and requirements to adapting to climate change of 539 peasant households in an ecologically vulnerable area of China to enhance their resilience to climate change by improving our understanding of adaptation process and decision-making. Our findings indicated that farmers in the Gannan Plateau face multiple adaptation barriers, of which normative, information and technology barriers were more serious, such as lack of meteorological information service, infrastructure and technology extension in agriculture or animal husbandry. Adaptation requirements are an important way to effectively reduce or eliminate obstacles and improve farmers' adaptive capacity to climate change. The survey found that local households have an urgent requirement for infrastructure, information and production technologies, such as water, electricity, transportation facilities, disaster warning information, employment information and farming or breeding techniques. In addition, due to the influence of economic level, education level, years of farming, gender and other factors, differences exist in the adaptation barriers and requirements faced by farmers in different regions. These findings extend empirical evidence in favor of formulating a reasonable adaptation framework and choosing optimal adaptation strategies, which are essential for enacting well-targeted regional adaptation policies.