Competition or Comparative Advantage: What Drives Cross Border Mergers and Acquisitions?

The theory of comparative advantage explains the upsurge of cross border mergers and acquisitions (CBMAs) in the era of reform led trade liberalization. This paper tests the theory of comparative advantage for CBMAs by firms belonging to a developing country, viz. India. Using count data the paper also shows that CBMAs have occurred in country and sector specific waves. This implies in developing countries, it is competition rather than comparative advantage which drives CBMAs. However, the paper finds that occurrence of the country specific wave and sector specific wave are negatively affected by favourable outward FDI policy.

     

Do Stringent Environmental Policies Deter FDI? M&A versus Greenfield

Environmental and Resource Economics - Strict environmental regulation may deter foreign direct investment (FDI). The paper develops the hypothesis that regulation predominantly discourages FDI...     

Do CEOs in Mergers Trade Power for Premium? Evidence from "Mergers of Equals"

I analyze chief executive officer (CEO) incentives to negotiateshared control in the postmerger governance of the survivingfirm. In order to do this, I study abnormal returns in a sampleof "mergers of equals" (MOEs) transactions in which the twofirms are approximately equal in postmerger board representation.These transactions are friendly mergers generally characterizedby premerger negotiations that result in both greater sharedcontrol (board and management) and more equal sharing of mergergains between the two firms. On average, the value created measuredby combined event returns is no different between MOEs and amatched sample of transactions. However, target shareholderscapture less of the gains measured by event returns in transactionswith shared governance. Moreover, target shareholders' shareof the gains is systematically related to variables representingpostmerger control rights, and shared governance is more likelyin transactions in which CEOs face greater incentives for control.The evidence suggests that CEOs trade power for premium by negotiatingshared control in the merged firm in exchange for lower shareholderpremiums.     

Are Larger Merger Synergies Bad News for Consumers? Endogenous Post‐Merger Internal Organization

In this paper, we endogenize the post‐merger internal organization of firms, considering two alternative structures: multidivisional, in which separate divisions are kept, and traditional, with cost synergies. We analyze when each structure occurs in equilibrium and how it affects welfare. We show that higher synergies do not necessarily lead to higher consumer surplus: firms can opt for a merger type that does not increase consumer surplus as much as the one that would occur with lower synergies. This highlights the importance of antitrust authorities basing their decisions not just on the magnitude of eventual synergies but also on the post‐merger organizational form.     

The Role of Middle Class in Economic Development: What Do Cross‐Country Data Show?

This paper investigates the channels through which the middle class may matter for consumption growth. Using several different middle‐class measures and a panel of 105 developing countries spanning the period 1985–2013, we find that a larger middle class influences consumption growth primarily through higher levels of human capital accumulation. There is also a significant direct effect of middle‐class size on consumption growth, which is more pronounced in the latter half of the sample, the 2000–2013 period.     

Do German Welfare‐to‐Work Programmes Reduce Welfare Dependency and Increase Employment?

Abstract. During the last decade, many Western economies reformed their welfare systems with the aim of activating welfare recipients by increasing welfare‐to‐work programmes (WTWP) and job‐search enforcement. We evaluate the short‐term effects of three important German WTWP implemented after a major reform in January 2005 (‘Hartz IV’), namely short training, further training with a planned duration of up to three months and public workfare programmes (‘One‐Euro‐Jobs’). Our analysis is based on a combination of a large‐scale survey and administrative data that is rich with respect to individual, household, agency level and regional information. We use this richness of the data to base the econometric evaluation on a selection‐on‐observables approach. We find that short‐term training programmes, on average, increase their participants' employment perspectives. There is also considerable effect heterogeneity across different subgroups of participants that could be exploited to improve the allocation of welfare recipients to the specific programmes and thus increase overall programme effectiveness.     

Do Scarring Effects of Low‐Wage Employment and Non‐Employment Differ BETWEEN Levels of Qualification?

This study investigates how the effects of low‐wage employment and non‐employment on wage prospects vary depending on qualification. Based on theories on signalling effects, human capital and job search, we discuss why there may be heterogeneity in state dependence in both labour market states. We find that episodes of low‐wage employment incur a significantly lower risk of future non‐employment than episodes of non‐employment for low‐qualified workers. In contrast, for workers with a middle or high level of qualification the risk of non‐employment is not significantly different when being low‐paid instead of not employed.     

Do international flights promote FDI? The role of face‐to‐face communication

International passenger flights facilitate business travel for in‐person meetings abroad. However, the significance of face‐to‐face communication (FFC) is not clear. To identify the FFC channel, this paper examines whether flights promote FDI more strongly for multinational firms that face relatively intensive FFC in foreign production. Expatriate employees are used as a proxy for the FFC intensity. Using firm‐level data on Japanese multinational firms for the period 1989 to 2006, I show that more frequent flights increase new FDI entry, with the larger positive effects for multinationals in high FFC sectors. The results support the FFC channel to connect flights and FDI.     

Do South‐South trade agreements increase trade? Commodity‐level evidence from COMESA

Abstract .  South-South trade agreements are proliferating. Yet the impact of these agreements is largely unknown, as existing North-North and North-South micro-level studies are likely to yield misleading predictions for South-South trade agreements. This paper estimates the impact of COMESA on Uganda's imports between 1994 and 2003. Detailed import and tariff data at the 6-digit Harmonized System level are used for more than 1,000 commodities. Based on a difference-in-difference estimation strategy, the paper finds that – in contrast to evidence from aggregate statistics – COMESA's preferential tariff liberalization has not considerably increased Uganda's trade with member countries, on average, across sectors. The effect, however, is heterogeneous across sectors. Finally, the paper finds no evidence of trade-diversion effects.     

Do bank activities and funding strategies of foreign and state‐owned banks have a differential effect on risk‐taking in Central and Eastern Europe?

This paper explores the differential effects of the activity and funding strategies of foreign and state‐owned banks in Central and Eastern European countries on risk‐taking. Due to potentially beneficial external support, the disciplinary role of non‐deposit funding is completely ineffective for both foreign and state‐owned banks. Most likely, because of survival beliefs, non‐deposit financiers deposit their money even when state‐owned banks become riskier. Involvement in non‐interest‐income activities has no impact on the risk‐taking of foreign banks and worsens the risk of state‐owned institutions. However, both types of banks are risky when involved in trading, insurance income, rental and other non‐banking businesses.     

A wait‐and‐see approach to investments: Do elections play a role?

Unlike previous studies on electoral investment cycle—the tendency for firms to reduce investment expenditure during an election year relative to nonelection years—that have primarily focused on developed countries, this study documents cycles in private investments in relation to the timing of national elections across a broader set of African countries. The estimation results indicate that during election years, private investment decreases by an average of 16% relative to nonelection years. The results also reveal that private investment falls in the year leading up to an election and increases in the immediate year after an election, consistent with the view that electoral uncertainty deters investments. These findings suggest that electoral investment cycles apply strongly to African countries.     

Trade‐Induced Unemployment: How Much Do We Care?

It is a common perception that a government, especially in the face of elections, is particularly sensitive to the presence of trade‐induced unemployment. In this paper, I ask: how much weight does the incumbent politician actually attach to unemployment resulting from trade? To answer, I build a model that captures government's sympathy to trade‐affected workers and allows me to decompose the channels through which trade‐induced unemployment affects the level of sectoral protection chosen by a politically‐driven incumbent official. I provide empirical evidence that the US government is very sensitive to the presence and the magnitude of trade‐induced unemployment. Specifically, I estimate the weight that the office holder attaches to the welfare of trade‐affected workers to be positive, significant, and four times larger than the weight on the welfare of those who are not affected by trade.     

Afro‐descendants in Peru: Do beauty and race matter in the labor market?

This is a first study about labor discrimination against Afro‐descendants in Peru. We randomly assigned Afro‐Peruvian and white surnames and photographs (subjectively beautiful, homely looking, or not photos) to 3,828 fictitious résumés, sent for unskilled, technical, and professional occupations. We find an unprecedented, sizeable beauty premium in unskilled occupations (232.5 percent), no effect of looks in technical occupations, and a beauty penalty in professional occupations (–71.3 percent). Overall, whites receive 19.37 percent more callbacks than similarly qualified Afro‐Peruvians; this racial discrimination affects only Afro‐Peruvian females, and particularly those employed in technical occupations. These results remain unaltered when we restrict the sample to those markedly “Afro” surnames. Our findings unveil different dynamics of discrimination across job categories, which tend to be overlooked by the existing literature.     

Do gender and age impact the time‐varying Okun's law? Evidence from South Korea

This study investigates the time‐varying Okun's law for different age and gender cohorts in South Korea over the 1980–2014 period. We found that the absolute value of the estimated Okun coefficients for all age cohorts and both genders become larger in a recession than in an expansion. We also found that the youth cohort (15–24 years old) for both genders is more sensitive to a negative economic impact than are older cohorts. These differences imply that when policymakers try to find a way of reducing the unemployment rate, they should consider differences in behaviour among these groups. Furthermore, the policies should be combined with age‐specific policies.     

Oil,Growth, and Health: What Does the Cross‐Country Evidence Really Show?*

We show that previous results from the body of literature on the resource curse have primarily been driven by the collapse in oil prices during the mid‐1980s. By exploiting cross‐country variations in the size of initial oil endowments and the timing of oil discoveries, we find that there is a stable positive relationship between oil abundance and long‐run economic growth. Using dynamic panel data methods, we also find that there is no evidence that higher oil rents hinder growth. However, to focus on material gain means that the welfare gain from oil is understated, because oil‐rich countries benefit more by the reduction in infant mortality and the gain in longevity. Interestingly, such oil‐led health improvements are more pronounced in non‐democratic countries, where initial heath conditions were poor and oil wealth is concentrated among the ruling elites.     

Do Employers' Responses to Crises Impact Men and Women Differently? Firm‐level Evidence from Indonesia

Do employers' responses to crises impact men and women differently? Using manufacturing census data from Indonesia this paper assesses gender differences in the impact of the East Asian crisis and to what extent these were due to differential treatment of men and women within firms and gender sorting across firms that varied in their exposure to the crisis. On average, women experienced higher job losses than their male colleagues within the same firm. However, the aggregate adverse effect of such differential treatment was more than offset by women being disproportionately employed in firms hit relatively less hard by the crisis. The null hypothesis that there were no gender differences in wage adjustment is not rejected.     

Do Long‐Term Unemployed Workers Benefit from Targeted Wage Subsidies?

We evaluate a wage subsidy program that is targeted at long‐term unemployed workers in Germany. We use an alternative identification procedure compared to empirical studies conducted so far. Exploiting the particular program regulations and large administrative data we estimate the impact of program availability using a regression discontinuity framework. Our results suggest no significant impact of the availability of the subsidy on labor market outcomes of the target group. Even though our analysis lacks some statistical power, our findings do not support the substantial positive effects obtained from matching studies. As our approach does not require observability of all drivers of selection, previous empirical studies justifying government expenditures on wage subsidies based on matching methods should be reconsidered.     

How Bad is Corruption? Cross‐country Evidence of the Impact of Corruption on Economic Prosperity

Most people today would argue that corruption is bad for countries' economic development. Yet, we still lack a reliable empirical estimate of the effect. This study addresses the econometric shortcomings of the literature and provides an estimate of the causal impact of corruption on gross domestic product per capita across countries. Certain dimensions of a country's culture are used as instruments for corruption. These instruments stay strong when the other deep determinants of economic development, geography, and the remaining dimensions of institutions and culture are controlled for. In the process of choosing controls, however, the entire set of variables available in the Quality of Governance online database (QOG) that includes all central variables from the literature on institutions and culture are included. It is found that corruption does exert a significant and negative impact on countries' productivity levels.     

Do tax cuts generate twin deficits? A multi‐country analysis

Abstract We study the effects of tax shocks on the budget and external deficits for 16 industrialized countries over the post‐1970 period. Our structural approach is based on a small open economy model where a tax cut affects the external deficit by two distinct channels. The demographic channel works through the overlapping‐generation structure of the model. The forecasting channel works through the dynamic structure of the model. Our empirical analysis documents that tax shocks generate twin deficits, and that both channels play important roles in explaining the positive comovement between the budget and external deficits.