打造推动创新与现代化的智库产业集群

在世界经济的"新全球化"背景下,中国经济基本面发生了历史性的实质变化,经济结构、发展动力和国际环境都发生了深刻变化,宏观经济步入新的发展阶段,中国经济从过去两位数的高速增长阶段下行到当前的中高速增长时期,已演变成一种结构性的减速。面对经济新常态,如何让智库产业在区域经济发展中起到重要支撑作用?     

Insurance Market Dynamics: Between Global Developments and Local Contingencies

Insurance markets have changed radically and deeply in the past twenty years. Deregulation, globalization of insurance institutions, intensified competition, electronic commerce, bancassurance, and the emergence of new risks are among the challenges faced by insurance markets. Although important global trends are reshaping insurance markets, the emphasis on globalization overlooks the local diversity of insurance markets worldwide. This article reviews the global developments and local factors affecting insurance markets and evaluates the advantages and disadvantages of globalization. Among the important global trends are the increasing sophistication of insurance products, the globalization of risk diversification through reinsurance, the emergence of mega-financial intermediaries, and the growing importance of supranational agencies such as the World Bank and the World Trade Organization. On the other hand, there remains significant heterogeneity among countries and regions that has a profound impact on insurance markets. Among the important local differences are political, legal, and cultural components as well as differences in financial markets, taxation, regulatory systems, insurer investment strategies, and insurance distribution systems.     

世界税制改革趋势及我们的对策

随着经济全球化的逐步深化和我国改革开放的不断发展,我国正在更深层次地融入全球市场。顺应世界税制改革趋势,完善我国税收制度是大势所趋。本文在总结20世纪中后期以来世界税制改革趋势的基础上,提出了完善我国税制改革的对策建议。     

全球化:中国的方式是什么?

<正> 司马加:中国的全球化方式是什么?无庸置疑,在过去20年当中,中国在改革开放的速度上以及在全球化的进程中都创造了世界记录。因为20年以前,中国同国外的贸易量占国民生产总值的比例几乎为零,现在一下达到了35%。现在中国在吸收外资方面仅次于美国,是第二大世界引资国。任何公司如果宣称自己是世界性的跨国公司,但在中国没有大的举措和大的作为,就不能称之为一个全球化的跨国公司。在过去的5年里,已经有很多中国公司走向海外,并且获得了一些全球化的市场份额。现在中国占世界贸易的总额是3.5%,中国一旦加入世界贸易组织,5年以后,我们相信中国占世界贸易总量将达到7%。当然,随着机遇还会碰到一些挑战和问题。我们现在可以提出一些问题,这种中国的全球化是否有中国的特点呢?     

Brazil's rise: Inequality, culture and globalization

This paper argues that the manifold patterns of globalization in relation to inequality can give rise to both the emergence of economic powers (again) rooted in widespread or deep social inequalities and to transversal forces—that cut across social domains (such as the economy, politics or cultural life), national borders, and social groups or classes—seeking to reinforce or to overturn those inequalities. These rising global players both represent particular historical courses toward modernity and capitalism and express in their contradictory outlook the very trends informing hegemonic globalization. These societies are fundamentally split in terms of a global/local economic and socio-cultural dynamics, which at once positions them in favor of integration and resists several of its instantiations. This further sets off a political dispute over the meaning and impact of globalization, which raises an awareness of cultural particularity and also prompts moves toward global articulations as a means to tackle inequality. The Brazilian case is offered as an example of this process: inequality lies at the root of its capitalist modernization, strongly connected to the legacy of slavery, and the recent juncture of globalization has both deepened inequality and opened a chance of fighting it.     

Globalization, Poverty, and Inequality since 1980

One of the most contentious issues of globalization is the effectof global economic integration on inequality and poverty. Thisarticle documents five trends in the modern era of globalization,starting around 1980. The first trend is that growth rates inpoor economies have accelerated and are higher than growth ratesin rich countries for the first time in modern history. Developingcountries’ per capita incomes grew more than 3.5 percenta year in the 1990s. Second, the number of extremely poor peoplein the world has declined significantly—by 375 millionpeople since 1981—for the time in history. The share ofpeople in developing economies living on less than $1 a dayhas been cut in half since 1981, though the decline in the shareliving on less than $2 per day was much less dramatic. Third,global inequality has declined modestly, reversing a 200-yeartrend toward higher inequality. Fourth, within-country inequalityin general is not growing, though it has risen in several populouscountries (China, India, the United States). Fifth, wage inequalityis rising worldwide. This may seem to contradict the fourthtrend, but it does not because there is no simple link betweenwage inequality and household income inequality. Furthermore,the trends toward faster growth and poverty reduction are strongestin developing economies that have integrated with the globaleconomy most rapidly, which supports the view that integrationhas been a positive force for improving the lives of peoplein developing areas.      

A vision for communities in the 21st century: back to the future

Globalization, in its capitalistic and popular cultural form, is impacting communities around the world. This paper uses two models to show how globalization actually arose several millennia ago and how the process has greatly accelerated in recent times. One model describes the ‘information technology system’ and the second is James Miller’s living systems model. Using these models as a foundation, this paper argues that globalization can severely weaken communities and is antithetical to future-oriented perspectives. If current globalization trends continue unabated, globalization may result in a future world characterized by satiated consumers whose every desire is met by a totally efficient but completely impersonal economic system. In this world, people do not depend directly upon face-to-face interaction for their economic well being. Because of this, community and even culture collapses. Contrasted to this soulless world, it is argued that a new future could evolve where concern about the future replaces individualistic and market-oriented concerns as the prime motivator of public policy. This future has a good probability of occurring since current populations are being socialized to understand the broad concept of globalization. Additionally, new technologies will allow the development of small, mostly self-sufficient communities which will facilitate the re-emergence of community life and obligations.     

Where is globalization taking us? : Why we need a new ‘Bretton Woods’

While globalization brings global increases in income in the aggregate, it also threatens to leave much of humankind in conditions of absolute poverty and to widen the gap between rich and poor. These trends are likely to be accentuated with the advent of the information/knowledge economy, the increasing power of multinationals, and the growing severity of environmental constraints. This article sketches these trends and then addresses the question: what are the necessary conditions for the attainment of a growing global economy with equity and acceptable environmental standards? It then tackles the issue of the prospects for these conditions to be realized under the prevailing global economic/financial system.     

The Global Century

No people, however they define themselves, can claim the 21st century as theirs; it can only be dubbed The Global Century. A sweep of the horizon at the end of the twentieth shows ten transformations going on at once — all related to the global spread of knowledge. We can't know what will happen or when, but we already know why. The “information environment” is changing our thinking about globalization, diversity, community, the world economy, the rich-poor gap, and education. Nobody can be in charge, so everybody is partly in charge. The implications for learning are huge, from pre-school to higher education. Education for the Global Century must help citizens think about “the situation as a whole”, think about how to “get it all together”.     

Toward a 21st Century Social Contract

This article makes the case for a new contract between business and government that will help us address the critical challenge of our time: the globalization of commerce, and its disruptive effects on labor, local communities, and the environment. The authors begin by showing how globalization has created a new playing field for government and business in which our current governance models and a social contract that proved remarkably effective during the 20th century can no longer ensure economic stability and social progress. While the private sector has for the most part demonstrated its ability to adapt and flourish in a global economy, governments have struggled, thanks in large part to complex decision‐making processes and centralized bureaucracies that were created in response to 20th‐century realities. The result has been ever more indebted nations and governments that have been unable to maintain the core foundation and social investments on which their economic competitiveness and the social well‐being of their citizens depend. Our challenge now is to create a new social contract between business and government that is equal to the challenges of a global economy. The authors identify a number of key issues that must be addressed in creating this new framework, and explore recent and emerging business leadership initiatives that are working to address them. These range from initiatives that encourage greater self‐regulation by business of its impact on society and the environment to those that explore ways for the private sector to help governments deliver services more cost effectively. As part of the fallout from the recent financial crisis, business, broadly speaking, no longer enjoys the level of public trust it once did, which has added significantly to the challenges it now faces in taking on greater social responsibility. To direct its considerable resources to the greater public good while continuing to produce a competitive return to shareholders will require a degree of innovation and leadership that many companies will find difficult. But without this increased participation of business and its leaders, it is hard to see how we will prosper in the increasingly uncertain future we now face.     

How do policymakers and think tank stakeholders prioritize the risks of the nuclear fuel cycle? A semantic network analysis

In recent years, the importance of stakeholder involvement and of integrating diverse perspectives into risk management has gained increasing recognition. However, it remains a challenging task to identify all potentially relevant stakeholders and to reliably describe their deeply held beliefs regarding the risks associated with complex industrial systems. For example, the development of advanced nuclear fuel cycles presents such a case. Based on a review of policy-making literatures and a content analysis of congressional records, we identify federal agencies and nonprofit policy institutes (also known as ‘think tanks’) as key stakeholders that are representative of those actively involved in making high-level decisions on the US nuclear energy policy. Using a semantic network analysis approach, we visually delineate the thematic areas of each party’s perceptions concerning fuel cycle risks. The results show that although governmental and think tank stakeholders share common concerns in areas such as nuclear waste management, the economics of nuclear facilities, and proliferation, they tend to focus on distinct aspects of each area. Moreover, while governmental stakeholders are primarily concerned with the environmental and local impacts of nuclear fuel cycles, think tank stakeholders focus more on the relative advantages and disadvantages of nuclear energy compared to other alternative energy options. Implications for risk management and risk communication are discussed.     

The future of tourism and globalization: Some critical remarks

Present-day generalizations on the future of tourism see it as a key force in the process of globalization. This paper challenges this notion by pointing out that our knowledge of the real shape of world travel and tourism is still quite limited and that the sketchy evidence we can gather with present-day tools thus presents a much more modest picture confronting the claim that tourism has reached a high level of globalization. While it is an activity practiced all over the world, it is scarcely global. In this sense, the perception that tourism is wholeheartedly global and that it mainly connects the richer parts of the world with the poorest pleasure peripheries is but a figment of the post-romantic collective imagination that dominates much tourism research.     

The significance of a world government in the process of globalization in the 21st century

This paper discusses the process of globalization and analyses those pressing global issues that have been unresolved due to the lack of an integrated global system and effective international institutions. It highlights a number of global issues that require global ethics and global action. The paper discusses how a globally integrated system, with a world government, a world parliament and a world central bank as its components, is no longer an idealistic concept. The paper highlights the dynamic gains of the transformation of nations and the future of this planet, once an integrated global system is in place. It analyses the challenges overcome during the integration of the US in the 19th century and the process of the formation of the EU in the 20th century. It argues that the creation of a globally integrated system, based on new and effective international institutions would be easier to implement than the formation of the US in the 19th Century or the EU in the 20th century, as we now have technology that did not exist in the 19th century and the process of globalization has already removed many previous financial, technological, cultural, language and other barriers to integration.     

证券交易所的可竞争性与我国证交所的发展

在技术与制度激变的全球化时代,证券交易所越来越成为了金融业中的竞争实体,21世纪初全球证交所大范围的整合并购,要求我们对于证券交易所的定位与发展应该有新的认识。本文从证交所在市场的中可竞争性出发,探讨我国证券交易所的未来发展。     

In search of global leaders

For all the talk about global organizations and executives, there's no definitive answer to the question of what we really mean by "global." A presence in multiple countries? Cultural adaptability? A multilingual top team? We asked four CEOs and the head of an international recruiting agency--HSBC's Stephen Green, Schering-Plough's Fred Hassan, GE's Jeffrey-lmmelt, Flextronics's Michael Marks, and Egon Zehnder's Daniel Meiland--to tell us what they think. They share some common ground. They all agree, for example, that the shift from a local to a global marketplace is irreversible and gaining momentum. "We're losing sight of the reality of globalization. But we should pay attention, because national barriers are quickly coming down", Daniel Meiland says. "If you look ahead five or ten years, the people with the top jobs in large corporations ... will be those who have lived in several cultures and who can converse in at least two languages." But the CEOs also disagree on many issues--on the importance of overseas assignments, for instance, and on the degree to which you need to adhere to local cultural norms. Some believe strongly that the global leader should, as a prerequisite to the job, live and work in other countries. As Stephen Green put it, "If you look at the executives currently running [HSBC's] largest businesses, all of them have worked in more than one, and nearly all in more than two, major country markets." Others downplay the importance of overseas assignments. "Putting people in foreign settings doesn't automatically imbue new attitudes, and it is attitudes rather than experiences that make a culture global," says Fred Hassan. The executives' essays capture views that are as diverse and multidimensional as the companies they lead.     

Measuring financial market integration over the long run: Is there a U-shape?

Using long time series for sovereign bond markets of fifteen industrialized economies from 1875 to 2009, I find that financial market integration by the end of the 20th century was higher than in earlier periods and exhibited a J-shaped trend with a trough in the 1920s. The main reason for the higher financial integration seen today is the recent extensive globalization. Around the turn of the 20th century, countries frequently drifted apart. Conversely, in recent years, the bond markets of most countries have moved together. Both policy variables and the global market environment play a role in explaining the time variation in integration, while “unexplained” changes in the overall level of country risk are also empirically important. My methodology, based on principal components analysis, is immune to outliers and accounts for global and country-specific shocks and, hence, can capture trends in financial integration more accurately than standard techniques such as simple correlations.     

Competitive advantage on a warming planet

Whether you're in a traditional smokestack industry or a "clean" business like investment banking, your company will increasingly feel the effects of climate change. Even people skeptical about global warming's dangers are recognizing that, simply because so many others are concerned, the phenomenon has wide-ranging implications. Investors already are discounting share prices of companies poorly positioned to compete in a warming world. Many businesses face higher raw material and energy costs as more and more governments enact policies placing a cost on emissions. Consumers are taking into account a company's environmental record when making purchasing decisions. There's also a burgeoning market in greenhouse gas emission allowances (the carbon market), with annual trading in these assets valued at tens of billions of dollars. Companies that manage and mitigate their exposure to the risks associated with climate change while seeking new opportunities for profit will generate a competitive advantage over rivals in a carbon-constrained future. This article offers a systematic approach to mapping and responding to climate change risks. According to Jonathan Lash and Fred Wellington of the World Resources Institute, an environmental think tank, the risks can be divided into six categories: regulatory (policies such as new emissions standards), products and technology (the development and marketing of climate-friendly products and services), litigation (lawsuits alleging environmental harm), reputational (how a company's environmental policies affect its brand), supply chain (potentially higher raw material and energy costs), and physical (such as an increase in the incidence of hurricanes). The authors propose a four-step process for responding to climate change risk: Quantify your company's carbon footprint; identify the risks and opportunities you face; adapt your business in response; and do it better than your competitors.     

高技术服务业聚焦八大领域

高技术服务业营业收入年均增长18%以上,是日前国务院办公厅发布的《关于加快发展高技术服务业的指导意见》(下文简称《指导意见》)中提出的"十二五"期间发展目标。而"到2015年,高技术服务业要发展成为国民经济的重要增长点"这一明确要求更是将高技术服务业     

Mutual development : Towards new criteria and indicators

The processes of globalization driving restructuring in all countries are harbingers of a new dialogue about paths to development. This development will not be based on the old model of macroeconomic management, but on a broader, systemic view beyond economics—Mutual Development. This article examines a range of social indicators, quality-of-life indicators, and new forms of regional and national accounting, and their applicability in the planning and implementation of Mutual Development based on precepts of grassroots action, cultural diversity, and global sustainability.     

BUYING AND SELLING COMPANIES IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM

The growth in corporate mergers and acquisitions in the 1990s has been nothing short of spectacular. Among the most important contributors to the growth of M&A are globalization and technological change, which are working together to create excess capacity in virtually all global industries. When industries are experiencing overcapacity, some degree of consolidation becomes inevitable, and M&A is a primary means for accomplishing consolidation. Although much of the dollar volume of M&A comes from the highly publicized mergers of large companies, by far the greatest number of transactions is taking place in the middle market—that is, companies with revenues less than $500 million or a market cap under $1 billion. Along with the sharp increase in middle‐market M&A, the author notes a relatively new financing practice in which private equity groups take large minority stakes in middle market companies. One factor contributing to this development, which the author calls “the small‐cap trap,” is that the stocks of small and mid‐sized public companies now appear to be trading “at large discounts to the values of their large‐cap peer group, even in cases where the operating performance of the smaller firms is better.” According to the author, the most plausible explanation for such discounts is the limited “float” of such companies; most receive little research coverage by Wall Street analysts and have limited institutional followings. After reviewing broad trends in M&A, the author offers some tips on designing a broad M&A strategy and conducting a selling process. One of the keys to the selling process is to create a sense of “exclusivity” among interested buyers without removing the pressure of competition. Consistent with the message of other articles in this issue, the author argues that one of the most reliable ways to create a sense of exclusivity is by providing good information, relatively full disclosure. Indeed, the disclosure should be sufficiently revealing that the initial bids are based on all relevant information.